Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

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  1. If I recall correctly, there was a problem in Leichhardt last election with a heavy early wet season causing problems with voting at some remote areas. In which case holding the election in the dry season may benefit the ALP if we assume most of the missing voters were Aboriginal, and that they are not disillusioned wit the ALP. Sorry may be the most important word!

  2. [A very ordinary government which just happened to keep us out of recession ]

    Not really, all they did was revert to type, spent a truck load of money just when it needed to be spent.

    now the crisis has past, do we really need a government that can’t help itself but throw cash at the electorate? its no wonder they’ve been popular

  3. [TSOP

    not thats sloppybelly 4]

    Great! Now I am going to be haunted by the image of Sloppy’s Belly jiggling for the next week! ๐Ÿ™

  4. [Iโ€™ll bet a few of those other countries are wishing their governments could have been even half as ordinary.]

    Maybe that’s Tingle’s point i.e. it should never have ot to the point where a week ago Labor were staring down the barrel. It’s the politics where Labor has been weak. JG will be better at that than KR. I should add that if KR ad won the election he to would have been better at the politics with the scars he collected in his first term.

  5. Step three: Take out your credit card and go to the bookies online. Go hard, Go hard as you can. Bet like a crazy man with a shit sheet in Dawson. You only have hours till the polling is published. Remember, punting on horses is luck. Punting on elections is often betting on a known outcome.
    Step four: Always remember to praise the tipster after the event.

    Agree with your general thrust. Political punting is so much easier than the thoroughbreds.

    I’ve already taken Labor in Dawson. I am still worried, but took it as a possible wildcard seat after mummy’s boy changed his nappy in public.

  6. [TSOP

    it is kind of erotic, in a cross dressing belly dancer kind of way]

    Aaaargh! Eeeeew!

    Not kosher! Not kosher at all!

  7. Not really, all they did was revert to type, spent a truck load of money just when it needed to be spent.

    Thats what this election is about to decide. The vote will now include many more people that your *mate* howard tried to stop from having their vote. Shame thy name is liberal.

    now the crisis has past, do we really need a government that canโ€™t help itself but throw cash at the electorate?

    ala your *mate* howard with the mineral boom pt 1, with a treasurer who couldn’t reign him in!

    its no wonder theyโ€™ve been popular

    And you lot are green with envy and bitter and twisted as usual – well get used to it sunshine.

  8. Gusface@447,

    I am sorry, but you really ought not to try to make a pile of sh1t smell any nicer…
    The so-called GSEACPS was nothing but a shameless cover for Imperial Japan to run over and rape all other nations in this sphere. Common prosperity really stood for prosperity and control for Japan and f&*k all others. Psephos is right, an estimated 20 million Chinese lost their lives under the bayonets and machine-guns of the Japanese Army (not to mention Korea, Singapore, etc). If this is anyone’s definition of prosperity then someone needs to have his/her brain MRIed. No one needed any encouragement to be more assertive, least of all from an army with the purpose of conquer and pillage.

  9. From Shanahan’s article I’d comment that:

    But the Coalition has the advantage of a protest vote

    Protest against what? No policies? ๐Ÿ˜†
    No, he must mean the stimulus money. But that’s fading, the schools report is a neutraliser.

    (Reminds me of Sir Les Patterson as Austalia’s cultural attache to the ‘Court Of St James’ quoting what Gough had said to him on his generous appointment including a 20 cubic foot fridge – “Don’t piss it all up against the wall, like yer done with the Darwin money” (Cyclone Tracy) )

    complacency among Labor voters who assume Labor is going to win

    Beware hubris, it can hit you square in the marginals, which leads to:

    strong primary vote support in areas where it counts

    Does he have marginal polling in that detail?

    and the damaging image of Labor leadership instability and divisions.

    Yes, but unless there is more in the Rudd interview nationally this weekend (why is that happening?) it is fading and neutralised in my HO.

  10. โ€œEighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative.โ€

    You could just about make that the epitaph for Australian Politics, 2010.

  11. [Just Me
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
    The only new event that was secured by the political death of Rudd was the reminder that under the ALP, our democracy is cheapened and de-valued.

    What nonsense. The electorate gets to vote on the ALPโ€™s action within a few weeks of it happening. Sounds like democracy to me.]

    The very argument I use to dismiss all the crap over the dismissal of Whitlam. The people immediately got to ratify the decision.

    Very interesting times I think, in both parties the right wing rule, Labor right is a little more moderate than the Liberal fruitcakes so if labor gets back in we are getting the left of the possible outcomes. If the Greens get the balance of power we have a lurch to the left in the senate.

    I think it then could be said; Australian Voters have dismissed the right. Finally the Howard years will be finished.

  12. Morning bludgers.

    It’s about time someone went in to bat for Mark Latham.

    People are missing the point about Latham.

    First, the guy has guts.

    Second, as someone who almost became pm of this country, he would know more about the inner workings of the political system than all the media commentators combined.

    Third, and for me most importantly, he satirises the commentariat and shows them up for what they are – a PACK OF HYENAS who can’t get all that much right and certainly can’t rise above the level of journalistic cliche.

  13. [I think it then could be said; Australian Voters have dismissed the right. Finally the Howard years will be finished.]

    Got it right, John Reidy.

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