Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

539 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll”

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  1. vic

    This from William

    [Labor struggling at 37 per cent to the Coalition’s 45 per cent. On a two-party basis, the swing is narrowed to 3.9 per cent, with the Coalition ahead on 51 per cent to 49 per cent. On that basis, Labor would possibly lose five seats in NSW.]

  2. [While 86 per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, 52 per cent said that it was better than the alternative.]

    Hmm, there’s that 52% again.

  3. [David Briggs long ago gave himself away as a Liberal supporting pollster.]

    Did the people who run Galaxy have links to Crosby Textor?

  4. I’ll say……….79 seats for Labor.
    Julia loses 11 or 12 in QLD & NSW, but picks up 2 or 3 in VIC/SA, holds Bass & Braddon & Solomon & Hasluck…………& Swan.
    A realistic, conservative prediction, which could be altered depending on what happens next week. 😉

  5. The new poll figures suggest a big swing to the ALP in underway…new seats are coming into focus that hitherto haven’t been seen as in play.!! Julia ,the Local girl
    is riding a tide of support,and Melbourne…the heart of left-liberal opinion is leading the nation !

    McEwan must be in the bag, and will be the first to fall….and in the eastern suburbs La Trobe must be the next to fall,followed by Dunkley in the south around Frankston,followed by Casey.,and possibly Aston…with the possibility of McMillan in Gippsland falling too.
    The marginal seat of Corangamite,on the western side of Geelong should hold for Labor,this being it’s only marginal in the state….a seat Labor has held only twice and each time for just one term…this result would make history !
    During the campaign the media has been fixated with the northern states,and has shown little interest or expertise in the Victorian result…now watch them come awake to what is happening here…slow learners many of them !!

  6. Diogs,

    That 86/52 analysis is actually very good for Labor.

    Says about 60% will vote for Labor.

    Call me what you like, just give me the votes.

  7. [dave @ 348

    Didn’t menzies want a bipartisan war cabinet, but curtin, said correctly, labor was the elected government and it was their responsibility.

    Menzies wanted a bipartisan war cabinet while he was still PM, but Curtin said the same thing about the UAP needing to take full responsibility. At least he was consistent.]

    Menzies was away in England for nearly a year I think 1939-1940 and then was most annoyed to come back to domestic politicking (before the Conservatives stabbed him in the back!)

    [Yes. Curtin also argued at great length to no avail that Singapore needed adequate air cover.

    Churchill sent the Prince of Wales which of course was sunk in the south china sea along with the Repulse.]

    I think they sent them up first WITH air cover – they didn’t find a Japanese invasion fleet in the Gulf of Siam, so then they sent them back WITHOUT air cover.

  8. Tom

    That is an awful lot of Labor voters who are saying they don’t deserve to be re-elected, many of them being rusted-ons. It shows just how bad Abbott is.

  9. [What are your concerns re NSW?]
    I must be very tired & seeing things because I can’t see it now. I thought the updated Gallaxy said that voters were very angry with Labor & the swing would cost at least five seats.

  10. GG

    For some weird reason, despite 52% saying that Labor is better than the alternative, they only get 49% TPP in that poll. Who are the 3% who think Labor is better than the alternative but are still voting Libs?

  11. the only good to come out of this is the reminder to all Australians that the ALP is essentially the political wing of the union party.

    Dohh. That is really the best the libs can do isn’t it.

    The libs stand for nothing and more australians are coming around to this viewpoint.

    You lot what to crucify Rudd one minute then cry crocodile tears the next. Claim credit for his demise and trot out crap about knocks on the door in the middle of the night the next.

    Your lot are all bonkers along with that fruitcake robb. Go tell that to your *mate* howard!

  12. Labor will do that well that new seats will have to be created to accommodate for how awesome it is. Expect a 180-0 ALP House of Reps after this election… 😛

  13. Was at a Community NBN Forum this afternoon and Conroy said big business can’t believe that Rabbott intends to scrap the NBN………they think the dogs breakfast he dished up this week will mean that their businesses will go down the toilet….and they’d become an International laughing stock….

    Some thought that he was only bluffing about scrapping it and once he got in it would be full steam ahead…….now think he doesn’t know what he’s doing……Conroy says to watch out for their support of the Labor NBN to be made more public in the next few days……

    I’m tipping a Coalition rout if Conroy is correct…..

  14. [It shows just how bad Abbott is.]

    True. It shows also how bad Labor’s strategy had been until JG decided to be her own woman. think we will see a very different Labor government under JG. She won’t be shy to speak of her government’s successes.

  15. QLD: Herbert (LIB Gain), Flynn (LIB Gain), Dickson (LIB Gain), Dawson (LIB Gain), Forde (LIB Gain)
    NSW: Robertson (LIB Gain), Gilmore (LIB Gain), Macquarie (LIB Gain), Macarthur (LIB Gain)

    They are my Labor losses. I reckon I will stick with them for now. Lindsay on a knife-edge, reckon it will be held. Leichhardt similar.

  16. Dee

    We are all being nervous nellies. I am going to stay optimistic and hope that the momentum continues until election day when Labor will be returned.

    On that note, nite all!

    Sweet dreams.

  17. Victorian seats:
    Darren Cheeseman is much derided here, but I assume he’s been a decent local MP for Corrangamite.
    Don’t know why Abbott & the Liberals are putting so much effort into Deakin – Mike Symon seems to be headed for another win.
    McEwen? Rob Mitchell is owed a clear win, because of the travesty of what happened in 2007.
    La Trobe? No idea what’s going on there, the Libs a few weeks ago were confident that Jason Wood would hold on.

  18. [Laura Tingle

    You’ve got a choice between a very ordinary government and an opposition which isn’t ready to lead]

    A very ordinary government which just happened to keep us out of recession and mass unemployment when almost every other country was going down the gurglar.

    I’ll bet a few of those other countries are wishing their governments could have been even half as ordinary.

  19. I reckon Dickson may be Labor’s on the grounds that Dutton has really pissed away a lot of good will there. I guess it really depends on how the trends in Brissie play out…

  20. Hi folks

    To those folk on PB who say they are punters and constantly remind us of the odds and their potentially winning bets here is a new game

    Step one listen to this debate in the seat of Herbert at a business lunch. Jones debates for Herbert
    Why are most lib candidate’s fat and is this the last dude that doesn’t know making apostrophes with your fingers is not cool. Why cant libs give speeches without reading them.

    Step two: listen to this ALP candidate for Herbert which is one of the most marginal seats. Mooney debates for Herbert

    Step three: Take out your credit card and go to the bookies online. Go hard, Go hard as you can. Bet like a crazy man with a shit sheet in Dawson. You only have hours till the polling is published. Remember, punting on horses is luck. Punting on elections is often betting on a known outcome.

    Step four: Always remember to praise the tipster after the event.

  21. Psephos

    [Labor believed that if it sat tight Menzies would fail and the country would turn to Labor, and so it proved.]

    I remember years ago when Hawke was in power and some Libs were seriously considering “parachuting” John Elliott into Parliament – I told some Lib colleagues that when the Tories last got some “big business” types in, they (Coles and ?) were the ones who turfed out Menzies, putting Australia’s interests ahead of the UAP’s.

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