Patricia Karvelas in The Australian:
Liberal strategists believe they are in line to easily win at least seven Labor seats and retain their own most marginal ones – but concede they are still falling short of being able to take Government. A senior Liberal strategist said the Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Longman are as “good as gone” to Labor and that Health spokesman Peter Dutton would easily retain the seat of Dickson – which has become notionally Labor because of a redistribution. The Liberals also believe they are in line to take Dawson on a 2.4 per cent margin from Labor. In NSW they say they will easily keep their seats of Gilmore, and Macarthur, but are not as confident about the battleground seat of Lindsay in western Sydney. But they believe they can pick up Robertson and Macquarie. In WA, the Liberals believe they could pick up Hasluck and keep Swan.
Mark Simpkin on ABC Television:
Labor MPs are calling Mark Latham all sorts of things, of which the most polite is “unwelcome distraction”. One minister told the ABC the government would have lost if the election had been held in the second or third weeks of the campaign, but it’s slowly clawing its way back, making a distraction-free final week crucial.
Simon Canning in The Australian:
THE Australian Labor Party has spent nearly $5 million advertising on metropolitan television and radio, and in newspapers in the first three weeks of the election campaign, outspending the Liberals by more than $1.3m. In the first concrete ad spending figures for the election compiled by the Nielsen Company, the ALP spent $4.86m on ads until August 7, as it worked to gain an early advantage over the Liberals. The ACTU, running a campaign against the possibility of a Liberal government reintroducing Work Choices, has emerged as the third biggest spender during the first three weeks, investing $2.13m. Spending by all three groups is believed to be significantly higher than Nielsen reports with subscription TV, regional radio and regional newspapers not yet accounted for … Labor looks unlikely to match the massive spend of the Liberals during the 2007 campaign, when they invested $14.4m during the course of the campaign.
Further to the last item, Wednesday’s Gruen Nation aired results from market research company Xtreme on the volume of party television advertising. They found that from the day the election was called until last weekend, the Liberals aired 736 ads to Labor’s 635. Over half of the deficit was accounted for by Perth, where a Liberal Party engorged by mining donations has been able to blitz Labor by 151 ads to 83. The market hardest hit by both parties was Brisbane with 197 ads for Labor and 188 Coalition ads. In Sydney the score was 188 Labor and 153 Liberal; in Melbourne, 128 Coalition and 83 Labor; in Adelaide, 116 Coalition and 84 Labor.
Just saw the Pyne ad for the 6th time this evening.
Alannah MacTiernan ad on Channel Seven in Perth.
Oooohhh Lannie Mac for Canning on Ch 7 just now – voiced and authorised by her – mentions Mandurah Rail Line etc
About ten seconds of election coverage on the Nine news.
To the other Croweaters
Why isn’t Labor countering Pyne’s advertising blitz? They have got an excellent candidate who should be promoted. He’s the kind of person we want in Parlt, esp when you consider the alternative.
Peter Costello dissing Abbott ad on Ch 7 just now as well.
Some on here say that a deluge of ads mean trouble for the incumbent. I live in a safe Liberal seat & have been drowning in Lib ads, flyers, newspaper spreads etc.etc.
William, 9 are saving it for Sunday night.
Boerwar,
Another good report from Bluey. Maybe a nice gallon of OP.
[About ten seconds of election coverage on the Nine news.]
I think Bluey got it wrong earlier. Today was a nil-all draw if there ever was one.
Don’t worry My say, you’re a gentle poster.
Keep it all William, it is gold!
Wm
Quite marked, I thought today, that the teev stations were turning to shootings, stabbings, dismembered torsos and the like.
blackburnpseph @ 838
[The Parramatta – Epping rail line announcement may have been a turning point in NSW and I don’t think a good one for the ALP.]
Incorrect – the Parramatta to Epping Rail Link has been on the drawing boards for decades, and has been delayed by the State Government’s inability to fully finance the project, but now that the Feds have stepped up with 80% of the dough, it is a vote winner. Because the State Government has stalled the scheme in the past will be irrelevant, as residents like myself (I live in the Parramatta electorate, and no more than 100 metres from the existing Clyde to Carlingford rail line which will be part of the new link) know and accept that there is a difference between State and Federal funding, and between the two Governments. Julia Gillard has again today fully committed to the project, and that is what people will hear and act upon when they decide who they will be voting for.
John Alexander, the Liberal candidate for Bennelong (the adjoining electorate to mine) supports the plan in his campaign literature and the expanded Epping station is in Bennelong and at the end of the proposed new link, joining on to the existing, but still new Epping to Chatswood line, thereby directly linking the Western lines to the Northern lines without the need to go via Strathfield, or even through the City.
There may be some residual cynicism associated with the State ALP Government, but the project will, I believe, be a major vote winner for the region, and for half a dozen ALP seats in the West of Sydney. The State ALP Government will get their beating at the polls in March 2011, Kristina Keneally’s personal popularity notwithstanding, and the vast majority of people know the difference between state and federal issues, and will vote accordingly, and in their own best interests.
“Their ABC” hyping up Sunday’s Rudd interview on Channel 7 as a potential disaster for Gillard: really? 😀
Has anyone checked Vexnews lately?
Sorry Dio, can’t answer for the ALP as I’ve never voted for them.
But I still want to know who the 6 foot 4 dude with the bald patch and beard in the ad is – it is not another Lib HoR canidate nor does it look like any of their Senate candidates.
Anyone south aussies can help me?
[Frank Calabrese
Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 8:13 pm | Permalink
Peter Costello dissing Abbott ad on Ch 7 just now as well.]
I’d say the ad is proving most effective.
Dr good @831
[Lyndsay is currently becoming less likely as an ALP hold (according to the betting).]
Still $1.7 at sportingbet
Dio
Bluey says that watching umpty Pyne ads would get into anybody’s drawers.
[“Their ABC” hyping up Sunday’s Rudd interview on Channel 7 as a potential disaster for Gillard: really?]
Wishful thinking perhaps?
How is Pyne paying for all those TV ads?
Out of his own money?
paddy2
Working on it.
So Vexnews have something to contribute, but they want to build the suspense, and drop it onto the ALP campaign launch monday.
[Channel 7 election panel for this year:
David Koch and Melanie Doyle (insert roll eyes smiley), Chris Bath, Mark Riley and Graham Richardon; also Peter Beattie, Alexander Downer (again, roll eyes), Tanya Plibersek, Scott Morrison and Mal Brough.] 294
Maybe they can to a live cross to Scott Morrison interviewing the president of Nauru for his comments.
I have received I think 4 letters from Malcolm Turnbull
Nil from Labor
And a blast from the past tonight!!
[Communist Alliance: Vote 1 Communist]
I thought the Berlin Wall had done these guys in; I do give them an A+ for effort to leaflet in Wentworth though
😀
Independently Thinking
What has Foley done to be a-holed and where will he go.
I know Rann is on the nose, but who is Snelling.
Lindsay has a fairly good margin on the face of it. Why would voters pick on Lindsay per se, rather than all the other more marginal seats nearby?
Cud chewer, the poll that put them behind 49/51 jut a week ago?
Well, lets wait and the see the latest polls, but personally, Ive upgraded my longstanding prediction of a narrow Labor win to a comfortable (though not large) win: primarily on the back of the NBN issue, and the libs knuckle-dragging / uncomprehending responses to it.
[Lindsay has a fairly good margin on the face of it. Why would voters pick on Lindsay per se, rather than all the other more marginal seats nearby?]
Bogans hate boats.
If you were a gay couple and you went to California, and you got married, and you returned to Australia, would you still be married, or would you become unmarried?
Boerwar. You would not be recognized as married under Australian law.
Everything is going to be thrown at the ALP over the next week. We can expect it to get ‘real’ dirty.
Itep
ta
BW
Define “married”
Your marriage would not be recognised in Oz by law.
Bloody ltep!!
ltep @1030, can you tell me more about this poll in Lindsay? Was it a poll of Lindsay only? What was the sample size?
Dio
Definition would be a marriage as recognized under Australian law.
But here’s a thought. If a hetero Australian couple go to California and marry do they stay married when they return to Australia?
Watching footy on 9. Heaps of ACTU work choice ads. Really good ones.
I should say that s 88EA expressly states that foreign unions between members of the same sex will not be recognised as marriages in Australia.
Boerwar @1033 for most intents and purposes your gay marriage overseas would mean nothing here in oz. It used to be that being married overseas was counted as evidence of having an interdependent relationship for the purpose of that particular type of visa, but Howard I think managed to remove that provision so your marriage meant nothing for the purpose of immigration too. Another little nicety.. and Im not sure if Labor’s reforms fixed that or not.
am I missing something here re Pyne ads? Surely any exposure of himself must be damaging to his own chances?
This Channel 7 interview with Kevin Rudd referred to above. When is it showing? I saw a fleeting glimpse of a preview on TV.
I can’ work out why everyone is including Solomon in their “definite right off seats” for labor… there is zero polling on it so no one has any idea.. that is the truth… there is also no evidence of a negative swing in the NT so big call to put it in the solid lost column. ….
also can’t buy the talk about Herbert…. Labor is not writing this off at all… great challenger with a good name in the community and a big local buy in to NBN…. again no data at all for Herbert but plenty of “certainty’ on here that it will fall… I guess there must be a lot of Nth Qlders on here in the know….
there will be a swing in Qld… but it won’t be uniform (like the 07 swing was not uniform) and we will see plenty of the swing in a handful of seats that will simply return to more historic levels.
Cud chewer, a link
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/pdf/100807-%20MarginalseatsNewspoll.pdf
Yes, it was Lindsay only and it had a sample size of 600, MOE of 4%.
alias@1045
Sunday 6.30 – about his Aorta and his support for Organ Transplants.
The overall betting market is currently suffering from temporary psychosis.As much as I don’t want to see the country fall into the hands of the lunar right business is business – time to move.
The ‘scandal’ surrounding the CLP candidate in Lingiari might have some spillover consequences in Solomon. I definitely wouldn’t write it off.
pedro
pls explain?
btw it was the Nth Qld electorates that all the betting sites got so wrong last time… I think the relatively dispersed electorates coupled with a lack of marginal polling means plenty of people are speaking through their arses if they think those betting on these specific seats have special inside info…. seats with relatively small betting markets are always going to be the ones to buck the trend (trend being a result in line with who the “favourite” is)… because the market can easily be effected by relatively small wages.