D-day minus 8

Patricia Karvelas in The Australian:

Liberal strategists believe they are in line to easily win at least seven Labor seats and retain their own most marginal ones – but concede they are still falling short of being able to take Government. A senior Liberal strategist said the Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Longman are as “good as gone” to Labor and that Health spokesman Peter Dutton would easily retain the seat of Dickson – which has become notionally Labor because of a redistribution. The Liberals also believe they are in line to take Dawson on a 2.4 per cent margin from Labor. In NSW they say they will easily keep their seats of Gilmore, and Macarthur, but are not as confident about the battleground seat of Lindsay in western Sydney. But they believe they can pick up Robertson and Macquarie. In WA, the Liberals believe they could pick up Hasluck and keep Swan.

Mark Simpkin on ABC Television:

Labor MPs are calling Mark Latham all sorts of things, of which the most polite is “unwelcome distraction”. One minister told the ABC the government would have lost if the election had been held in the second or third weeks of the campaign, but it’s slowly clawing its way back, making a distraction-free final week crucial.

Simon Canning in The Australian:

THE Australian Labor Party has spent nearly $5 million advertising on metropolitan television and radio, and in newspapers in the first three weeks of the election campaign, outspending the Liberals by more than $1.3m. In the first concrete ad spending figures for the election compiled by the Nielsen Company, the ALP spent $4.86m on ads until August 7, as it worked to gain an early advantage over the Liberals. The ACTU, running a campaign against the possibility of a Liberal government reintroducing Work Choices, has emerged as the third biggest spender during the first three weeks, investing $2.13m. Spending by all three groups is believed to be significantly higher than Nielsen reports with subscription TV, regional radio and regional newspapers not yet accounted for … Labor looks unlikely to match the massive spend of the Liberals during the 2007 campaign, when they invested $14.4m during the course of the campaign.

Further to the last item, Wednesday’s Gruen Nation aired results from market research company Xtreme on the volume of party television advertising. They found that from the day the election was called until last weekend, the Liberals aired 736 ads to Labor’s 635. Over half of the deficit was accounted for by Perth, where a Liberal Party engorged by mining donations has been able to blitz Labor by 151 ads to 83. The market hardest hit by both parties was Brisbane with 197 ads for Labor and 188 Coalition ads. In Sydney the score was 188 Labor and 153 Liberal; in Melbourne, 128 Coalition and 83 Labor; in Adelaide, 116 Coalition and 84 Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “D-day minus 8”

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  1. ltep @1047 ah ok.. so the Lindsay poll is interesting but hardly definitive. You’d need a run of polls with equal or better samples to be sure. And of course, the whole of Western Sydney is now doing better for Labor than it was last week.

  2. Because I wanted to try to catch up and have been busy I want to get back to THAT supposed leak. Remember that the ALP suffered big time in the polls because of those Oakes leaks. I reckon that the Libs ie Robb, did the leaking himself, to try to destabilise the ALP campaign again and also to use it as an excuse to avoid submitting there policies to the dept of finance. Robb has form from previous campaigns.

  3. [Mikeisright
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

    btw it was the Nth Qld electorates that all the betting sites got so wrong last time… I think the relatively dispersed electorates coupled with a lack of marginal polling means plenty of people are speaking through their arses if they think those betting on these specific seats have special inside info…. seats with relatively small betting markets are always going to be the ones to buck the trend (trend being a result in line with who the “favourite” is)… because the market can easily be effected by relatively small wages.]

    Are you the yin to Mike Wilkinsons yang?

  6. and frankly the “betting market was the closest to the result in 07” is a fine argument as long as you take the market on the day before the election…. not 8 days out…. anyone who knows betting markets knows that most money comes late… so coming to some kind of conclusion today and basing it on what the markets are saying only means anything if the election was held today… and given the majority of money will come late it isn’t even that accurate an estimate of where the election would be held if it was today….

  11. pinko… I just can’t get over all these people who want to call things based on present betting markets… it is like having a punt on the futures for the melbourne cup 8 days out … before the Saab.. before the Derby etc…. the money for specific seats will come next week.. and maybe… maybe by Thursday you can make a call based on the markets… but far out you would have to be pretty short sighted not to have seen the shift in the market this week for labor based on simple weight of money.

  12. Galaxy supposedly has a poll in the Daily Telegraph tomorrow saying that Julia Gillard is so popular that this factor alone will get Labor across the line. Don’t know more than that.

  13. Muskiemp # 1054…I share your suspicion about Robb…but he must have covered his tracks damn well, after calling in the Feds. they do not take kindly to wasting their time.
    Am still not happy about Swan’s replies to all the questions, “did you leak it?” he has never said no, always fudged around it…its all just too stupid, doubt will have any major bearing, same as Rudders leaving it till the last minute in 2007 to put Labors in.
    Do the general voters really care?

  15. [pinko… I just can’t get over all these people who want to call things based on present betting markets… it is like having a punt on the futures for the melbourne cup 8 days out … before the Saab.. before the Derby etc…. the money for specific seats will come next week.. and maybe… maybe by Thursday you can make a call based on the markets… but far out you would have to be pretty short sighted not to have seen the shift in the market this week for labor based on simple weight of money.]

    Yeah, I agree. I tried to make the point to Mike Wilkinson last night that the individual seat markets at this point in the 2007 had Howard winning and they only moved towards Rudd at the death.

    He then sprayed a heap of bile in my direction.

  17. David

    [Do the general voters really care?]

    I don’t think they are following it; it’s become a he said she said kind of thing. Still it’s a win for Robb coz it has given him an out for releasing his costings for proper scrutiny. No-one believes either of the parties will do what they say in their costings so I think their significance is a bit over-rated.

  18. Galaxy supposedly has a poll in the Daily Telegraph tomorrow saying that Julia Gillard is so popular that this factor alone will get Labor across the line. Don’t know more than that.

    Hope that is correct – the Julia factor that is.

    Some might say Galaxy just trying to repair its shattered brand name – whatever the rights or wrongs of the rooty hill/ joel stunt, some of the mud will stick to Galaxy. But when you associate with the likes of DT/ Sky/ Newscorp that is to be expected.

  19. Re the Vexnews bit for Monday – from the sound of the article it sounds like it’s going to be a negative for the Coalition – i.e.

    [you’ll have to wait til 9AM Monday for a story that would even make Iron Mama Christensen of Mackay shed a tear.]

  20. ltep

    Leo Abbott, the indigenous CLP candidate for Lingiari, technically breached a DVO by sending an email to his ex partner. No violence or threat of same was involved. Terry Mills firmly wants him out. CLP clearly knew about it beforehand. Abbott himself refuses to stand down, though that is a work in progress I suspect.

    It was the lead story on ABC TV evening news, and page 5 in the local newspaper (NT News, Murdoch), which is published in the morning.

    It is certainly not going to affect the result in Lingiari which is already safe for Labor, and I would think it is unlikely to spill over and affect the result in Solomon. (Though the CLP’s inconsistent claims about their prior knowledge of the issue is not a good look for the brand.) However, given that Solomon is very marginal, any tiny spill over effect could be significant.

    Solomon is too close to make a reliable call. As usual. It is a young seat, this is only its fourth election, and it has always been marginal (currently 0.2%). It has gone with the winning side in the previous 3 elections, and Antony Green says that is normal for Darwin.

    Hale has a slight edge with the bookies, though it is probably a very small betting pool. He also has the advantage in the donkey vote, which might be significant given the tiny margin.

    Hale should also get a preference boost from the Greens vote which is significant in Solomon (9.1% in 2007). The Greens candidate, Emma Young, scored an impressive 23.7% of the vote in the last Territory election (2008) for the seat of Nightcliff, though that seat is certainly not representative of the broader Solomon electorate.

    http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/labor-people/damian-hale/

    Hale has not done anything wrong as a member, but I can’t say he has done anything much outstanding either, that I am aware of. Most of his work would probably be standard backbencher stuff – channelling federal funds and fixing relatively minor local issues. He is a long term local who is blokey but smart, and was a well known and successful local sporting identity prior to his entry to parliament, which is probably what got him over the line in 2007. (Plus his 2007 opponent, Dave Tollner, is a bit of dick. IMHO ;))

    His current opponent, Natasha Griggs, is a good candidate on the face of it. A life long resident, she was an Alderman and the Deputy Mayor of Palmerston, a satellite town of 30 000 just outside Darwin, with a strong Army presence. I am told she was a real estate agent and now owns a large portfolio of rental houses, in an electorate that is screaming for housing and has among the highest rents of any electorate in Australia. She is pushing the housing scarcity issue, and apparently has had to defend herself against charges of hypocrisy. But I don’t think they went anywhere. If she loses I would be surprised if she gives up on politics, seems like a political animal.

    http://www.natashagriggs.com.au/

    If I had to call it I would give Hale a very slight edge. But I don’t think it is possible to reliably call it. Could go either way at the moment.

    •••••

    [Mikeisright @ 1046
    I can’ work out why everyone is including Solomon in their “definite right off seats” for labor… there is zero polling on it so no one has any idea.. that is the truth… there is also no evidence of a negative swing in the NT so big call to put it in the solid lost column. ….]

    Thank you, sir. It is to close to call. That is all that can be reliably said about it.

  21. leftwingpinko@1067

    Yeah, I agree. I tried to make the point to Mike Wilkinson last night that the individual seat markets at this point in the 2007 had Howard winning and they only moved towards Rudd at the death.

    Agree. My memory of the seat markets in 2007 is that they were useless until near the close. In Bennelong for example, McKew was $2.80 until 6:01 pm (or so) on election day, and then in a few minutes backed into odds-on because of the money following the exit polls. If you don’t have inside polling info then beware individual electorate betting. The only other time to go for individual electorates is if there is a really big late gaffe or expose, and you get on before the markets have moved, because they are relatively slow to move.

  22. the funny thing is they actually choose to ignore the polls to make the argument… the most likely result.. presently given labor appear to be on just under 52% tpp.. based on how polls have tended to move towards the incumbent in the last week would seem to suggest labor getting 52.5+…. that is not wishful thinking that is just based on what generally happens (even kinda happened in 07)… if they get that they will win comfortably… because as we all know the votes will be somewhere.. and no one is arguing on here that safe labor seats are going to swing hard TO the government so it is pretty simple math…

  23. thanks ITEP refreshing to see an in-depth analysis based on something more than liberal party “leaks” and a presently tiny betting pool

  25. Strange observation.

    “apple” on google came up with apple finland store number 1, US no 2. A message here?

    I am showing flank here; yes I am a mac head.

    I was wanting to drool over 2010 Macpro. I have a 2008, and she purrs!

  28. This election is different because the incumbent governments leader has only been in the job for five minutes,so I wouldn’t be counting on the usual move back to the current government.
    Also, last weekends published polling was more like 50.8-49.2 than 52-48.
    Even though I just had a small bet on Abbott I still desperately want Julia to win,I just feel most bludgers are being seduced into a false sence of security by the current betting markets.

  29. This is the only item I have seen on Rudd’s visit to Flynn yesterday. Nothing in The Morning Bulletin which covers quite a bit of Flynn and If WIN TV covered it, then it was so fleeting I missed it.

    With such minimal media coverage and the visit being so short, I can’t imagine it will have much effect on the vote there especially as most of the workers he addressed yesterday would already be voting Labor anyway.

    Maybe he intends another longer visit. I bet Chris Trevor hopes so at least.

    [ The first thing Mr Rudd did on Gladstone soil was walk up to people waiting for loved ones in the arrivals area of the airport to say hello.

    Mr Rudd’s main aim of the visit was to have a barbecue lunch with Gladstone Ports Corporation (GPC) RG Tanna Coal terminal workers, accompanied by Member for Flynn Chris Trevor.

    Despite undergoing surgery recently, there was no slowing the ousted prime minister down, as he took the opportunity to talk about how much the Labor Party had done for Gladstone workers and their families.

    “It’s great to be back here in Gladstone,” Mr Rudd said in the only speech he gave during yesterday’s visit. “I’ve been here many times with CT.” ]
    http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/story/2010/08/13/former-pm-hits-town-for-lunch-kevin-rudd-election/

  31. Pedro at 1059
    [The overall betting market is currently suffering from temporary psychosis.As much as I don’t want to see the country fall into the hands of the lunar right business is business – time to move.]
    They are at the 50m and Labor are about 2L in front.

  32. [The Coalition -party must be desperate, they have invaded Whirlpool on the NBN issue cost:]

    Just had a look at the whirlpool forum and basically everyone paid him out 😀

  33. re NBN could anyone believe Coonan on the nation last night basically implying that because it was predominately cable based the government were actually putting all their eggs in the same basket.. like they were outlawing wireless… IDIOTS.

  35. @cud chewer/1079

    Yup 😀

    @PEDRO/1080

    Yeah we already had that, it’s called a honeymoon period, the first two weeks Gillard became PM.

    @Peter/1084

    🙂

  36. who has any evidence at all that this election is different and there won’t be an incumbency factor? it is complete crystal ball gazing… anyone actually know what happened in similar elections in the past? the incumbency issue is all about the devil you know…. it is the same devil… she even has red hair ;)… there is no way at all to know whether the incumbency factor will play a part until about 6:20 Saturday night.

  39. Whirlpool is hilarious, as peter says, they are getting ripped apart.
    My thoughts for next week:
    Any leaks will have their impact blunted by the libs bleating over treasury leaks,
    Launch is important, but the alp need to stay on message , economy, Nbn, economy
    Expect a lot of dirt, and 3rd party advertising, unions, mining companies.
    Labor looks good, but any errors by them will be blown out of proportion.
    It is a seat by seat battle.
    MSM tims to go into the house of mirrors (go and have a good long hard look at yourselves)

  45. sorry I meant no way to know that it won’t be a factor (given the majority of past elections) than until the counting is done… it is all about probabilities based on past actions… it either happened in the past, so you make an assumption that it will happen now, or it didn’t… the incumbency issue is an assumption but it is at least based on past actions… more than “there won’t be an incumbency because somehow no one realised labor had been in power and Julia just appeared out of thin air”….

  47. @1088, when talking about incumbency factor, the leader is not as important as simply having the levers of government at your side and its silly to attribute all the “good will” to the leader.. there is such a thing as policy.

  48. Mike – incumbency is important, however labor threw a lot of it away with the leadership change in June. So it isn’t quit the same as orev elections

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