Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

928 comments on “Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  2. Just spent most of the day handing out how to votes in a marginal seat. Probably 400 voters, totally unscientific, but there are no baseball bats out, just a real sense of ‘OMG’ what a complete fup.
    Predictions, Hung Parliament with irregular swings all over the place. When Melbourne is added the window for a hung grow a bit.?
    Please let the next cycle of polls show something better than this week.

  4. [Ron

    anyway you anti filterers is out of step with 80% who want it]

    I would suggest that 80% couldn’t care less one way or the other, a small percentage care, vote Liberal and want it, a larger percentage care, don’t want it, will be voting Green because they have said no, and may or may not give their second preference to Labor, depending on how important the issue is to them.

  6. Did you know that household wealth rose by $870 billion over the past year? That’s well above $2 billion a day! No wonder consumer sentiment is high. They just don’t give Labor credit for this.

  7. Mithrandir @ 774

    [Ah yes. Mobile phone numbers aren’t publicly available. I wonder if Morgan will do that regularly now. Would be interesting to see how accurate their face to face, phone and sms polls are this election.]

    SMS polling is a new methodology, but it is becoming more popular, and does depend heavily on the target audience. As Smart phones (Blackberrys, iPhones, et al) become more popular over time, the the methodology will come into it own, as online panel polling is now, and even as computer assisted telephone polling was 20 years ago.

  8. Did you know that in less than 2 years, the budget will start to move to surplus so the government will start to repay the TEMPORARY debt that was incurred to fight the GFC. The comparable timelines for the UK is 2020; in the US, never.

  9. Generic Person is tweeting his little heart out.

    [Governments that want to filter the Internet don’t deserve to be re-elected. Vote 1 Liberal. #ausvotes #nocleanfeed #openinternet 5 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone]

  10. Gus

    They’re about the only party I’ve never voted for.

    The BER report looks about average; waste but not more than you’d expect from a big program. Neither good nor bad for either side but it depends on how it’s reported.

  11. mithrandir @ 774,

    trying to administer a survey is quite difficult, as to the accuracy of phone or face-to-face polling is determined if said survey is psychometrically evaluated post-construction. ie., is it valid and reliable, that is, is it measuring what its meant to be measuring and is it consistent?

    i work in market research, and i’ve done limited stats in psychology, and i’m only commenting on my own experiences, the survey that is usually administered to a respondent is usually an UGLY, HORRIBLE, BASTARDIZED MONSTER.

    after the construction of the survey, said survey needs to be tested against other standardized measurements and it needs to be fine-tuned. but construction and testing requires money. and for this reason i believe that a lot of surveys are NOT psychometrically tested. the surveys i’ve administered for my company, not necessarily relating to politics, are hideous creatures that are repetitive, grammatically incorrect, overly wordy, complex and long;everything that testing is meant to correct.

    depending upon the methodology used by morgan, whether they’re using a tried and tested survey or if they let the client ‘choose their own adventure’, ie., select their own questions, and then bung them together, and if they test the survey, will determine its accuracy and validity.

  14. Generic Person doesn’t deserve to be able to vote.

    Giving a vote to Coalition, means death to democracy.

    If we keep voting for the same party, then there is no point in voting at all.

  17. The Morgan SMS poll may be spot on, it may be garbage. Strange time to introduce it into political polling.

    But hey I guess it can give almost immediate responses for CH7 during the next two weeks.

  18. ps. face-to-face surveying and phone interviewing have to be regarded as amongst some of the most INEFFICIENT methods of gauging attitudes ever devised.

  19. [This is all by way of explanation as to why I’ve been sounding a bit down today. This guy frightened the bejesus out of me, and I haven’t been able to shake it off since.]

    BB@652
    That is so depressing but I reckon you should have said ‘OK mate – take the old stuff out but I’m getting someone else to put the new stuff in if you don’t appreciate what Labor did to keep you going through a downturn”.

    Geesh – I’m not putting up with that rot anymore. There must be people out there who appreciate what was done for them.

  20. Steve
    Thank you. Frankly, I don’t understand what is happening. There are lots of signals of unhappiness about COL etc, etc, sales, etc, which, put together, seem to indicate that there is quite a bit of consumer unhappiness out there.

  22. Westpac consumer sentiment rose 11.1% in July to a point around 13% it’s long run average. People are “happy”. Strong employment, rising house prices, low interest rates, a strong Australian dollar, low unemployment and some stability in stock prices are all “good news” for the punters out there. Next week sees the August data…

  23. brioz
    Everyone deserves one vote. That’s democratic. In the same way, everyone should own a newspaper chain, a TV network and a radio network. That would be democratic as well.

  26. [We’ll have Laurie Oake’s ginormous arse on TV tonight pontificating why Labor are failures this week and why every bit of positive coverage we’ve gotten is wrong.]

    Aristotle was on ABC breakfast this morning and said that the polls slid after the leak by Laurie Oakes. Said that the oldies and women changed to the Libs because Julia G was reported as being against an increase for pensions and PPL.

    He said wtte it didn’t matter whether it was true or not but it was believed by those groups.

    So Laurie must be feeling pretty pleased with himself. He’s made a big splash.

  29. It is volatile – over time, hip pocket issues dominate. High petrol prices are bad for sentiment… the month after interest rates rise, sentiment inevitably falls. But when there is not much news on those things, people look at jobs, unemployment, wealth issues (house prices and stocks) … right now, the balance is saying people are happy.

  30. [In the same way, everyone should own a newspaper chain, a TV network and a radio network. ]

    We’re rapidly heading that way. Buy a webcam, start your own Youtube channel, read out your own 6pm news. No-one much will be watching, but you’ll be in good company there.

  32. That is so depressing but I reckon you should have said ‘OK mate – take the old stuff out but I’m getting someone else to put the new stuff in if you don’t appreciate what Labor did to keep you going through a downturn”.

    I have already rung him and told him no, for the reason you suggested.

  33. [Buy a webcam, start your own Youtube channel, read out your own 6pm news]
    …criticise the government, get added to the filter blacklist…

  34. Ron, regarding the filter, I hate to break it to you but of the people who actually understand the details of the filter almost none are in favour of it.

    Of those people who do not know what the filter is about most support it. Why are so many people badly misinformed? Because all along both Conroy and the ACL have tried to keep it low profile and present it as simply a block against child porn. And every time Conroy has been bailed up about this, he has simply lied.

    Ron, keep this simple fact in mind. If you wanted to build an ISP level filter that blocked only child porn then you could do so. In fact all you need to do is to ask the Federal Police for a list of known child porn web sites, and there is your black list. If Conroy had chosen to do this it would have been vastly less controversial and probably would have found support and been implemented.

    So, why did Conroy not actually do that?

    The answer is this. The original idea of a filter was actually motivated by the same people who for years have tried to tell other adults what they can and can’t see, what they can and can’t think about. So the filter that we are talking about isn’t based on a simple list of child porn, its actually based on the RC classification law. In other words its an extension of classic censorship attempts that applied to books and film.

    As such the justification that it is about child porn is an outright lie. Why? Because if we wanted to filter child porn we could have avoided the censorship law entirely and instead based the filter on one simple object (illegality) and let the police make the decisions about what is on the list. I leave it to you to ask why anyone who cares about child porn would be so stupid as to hook the filter into the censorship law if one actually cares about quickly and efficiently implementing a filter for child porn web sites.

    Ron, may I remind you that only a very small fraction of those sites rated RC are in fact child porn. In fact most RC classified web sites have actually turned out to be legitimate porn sites featuring young looking but nevertheless legal age models (you see, one of the nebulous classification criteria is that the model merely looks under age). Included also in RC is a lot of fetish and artistic material. Things that may offend even. But it is your right as an adult to choose what you do and don’t want to see.

    There is one inescapable conclusion, Ron. This is not about child porn. Its about giving wowsers what they want. Which is about saving other people’s souls at any cost.

    NO answer you can give can escape the test that if you really want to filter illegal material, you could do so, and avoid the classification law entirely. The fact that you, and Conroy, and others support the filter as it stands says your agenda is in fact a right wing Christian one (or you’ve been duped).

  38. Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here back in the day, when the site was a little more boutique.

    Just a suggestion: the comma should go after “here”, not “day”.

    (Ducks for cover).

  42. [Mark Latham is producing a story for 60 Minutes which will air on 15 August.]
    That is the difference between someone like Rudd to Latham. Rudd is all class & Latham is all a@#e.
    Malcome Fraser got asked on ABC radio this morning if he thought the Coalition under the Rabbott was ready to govern.
    He said a resounding ‘NO’. When quizzed on the reckoning behind that answer he declined to answer.

  43. steve – my source called the Galaxy 50/50 from last week. I have been told this one “is better for Labor”. But Im hearin a “shock poll” is coming. A shock poll will most likely be a bad Labor one.

  47. BB – your postings on the BER are much appreciated.

    Labor should really get some of those contractors/tradies into an ad thanking Labor for keeping them afloat.

  48. I have no idea why you think that, BB.

    WB wimps out again: you could have at least SNIPped me for unnecessary pedantry.

  49. the westpac consumer survey, more or less, equates to:

    how are you feeling today?

    how do you think you’ll be feeling tomorrow?

    how do you think you’ll be feeling next week?

    how do you think you’ll be feeling next month?

    now add the phrase ‘about the economy’ and that’s your westpac measurement of consumer confidence. very scientific, huh? it boils down to attitudes and the manipulation of attitudes.

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