Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

928 comments on “Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt”

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  3. BB – I’m thanking you again. That’s what the ungrateful wretch deserves. I must be turning into a crankly old lady!!

  4. Well, ruawake, either you support the filter, in which case you should consider yourself told, or you’re against it, in which case you can happily skip 🙂

  7. Boerwar, when Pyne was interviewed and he made that claim, it was clear the interviewer was on to him and Pyne sounded pretty flustered and insincere.

  8. Boerwar – was it really $8 bill or is that Pyne’s concocted figure?

    Someone posted a list of Howard’s waste in defence etc.a few pages back. That came to a lot more than $8bill.

  13. [Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here back in the day, when the site was a little more boutique.]

    Last posted that I saw on the Qld election on the crikey site. Could still post on other crikey sites but I don’t read blogs as much as used to so not sure. Think might have left pollbludger due to the comments about activities of the clergy.

  19. [Well, ruawake, either you support the filter, in which case you should consider yourself told, or you’re against it, in which case you can happily skip]

    I just happen to think that Health, Education, Employment and Social Security are more important than people jerking off over friggin filters. It bores me to tears and as an election issue it almost equals the colour of corflutes. 😛

  22. Castle
    It is OK. You can relax. The clergy don’t do activities anymore. The Pope has put out an encylopaedia forbidding it.

  24. [ALP in “Desperate” trouble in key marginals in NSW and Queensland]

    Is that all? They’ve been singing that tune for a while. Let’s see what the outlook is after Kevin has been out and about for a while.

  27. They won’t lose Eden Monaro, so that’s what, 3 seats that are going to fall based on this shock poll? Err…?

  31. That’s not a shock poll at all, it’s just a curiosity.

    They keep trying for “shock” when going after ratings, they are just gonna end up being the boy who cried “wolf”

  32. Not a shock poll, but unpleasant news nonetheless – I think some people, myself included, were taking Bonner for granted.

  33. [BH and Bushfire Bill, with respect, that’s hardly the way to persuade the guy to change his vote.]

    itsthevibe – that bloke has deadset made up his mind. I do vollie work with a bloke who gives me the same spiel every week. I’ve taken him copies of stuff Megalogenis, Saul Eslake, Gittins and others have written showing that the Libs are misrepresenting the facts.

    Absolutely nothing works. He just says he knows what the Libs say is right because Labor always spends too much and will never change. What more can you say or do?

  35. I suppose this “Desperate Trouble” thing in 4 marginals is an attention grabber from 9 or Laurie Oaks striving for relevance yet again? Its only going to be of any significance if they have a reasonable sample size in each of the seats.

    Any info on what the sample size actually was??

  37. welll if the ground in tas is anything to go by i was inindated at the service station for actu stickers and info same near building sites all my handout nearly gone.

  38. What a farce!

    If a pissy poll of 4 marginal seats (Bonnor and Bowman in QLD and Macarthur and Eden Monaro in NSW) shows the Government at 49% to 51%, then that doesn’t sound too bad to me, given the wipeout that was being predicted by some pundits!

    No breakdown by seat, just a total, and no national TPP – if that is a ‘shock’ result, then I’m a Dutchman.

  40. Absolute crap. Four marginal seats.Too close to call. Two of those seats in Qld. Gillard “more impressive” by 10 points. A typical trumped up TV poll. Wait for Neilsen and Newspoll.

  41. [I told him to talk to his mother because I’m an atheist.]

    I didn’t know that. I thought you were religious.

  42. [ Buy a webcam, start your own Youtube channel, read out your own 6pm news

    …criticise the government, get added to the filter blacklist…]

    Such an idiot. It’s really very insulting to people who have to live under real dictatorships to engage in this kind of childishness.

  44. The swing in that 9 poll is not as bad as I’d have expected. If that’s the bad news then I think things are on the up.

  45. Well – what a surprise.

    Channel 9 Sydney cherry pick every negative snip possible from the BER report and tell people bugger all about the positive aspects of the report.

  47. [I told him to talk to his mother because I’m an atheist.]

    Dio – you don’t deserve to be a father cos I heard a Qld woman saying yesterday that, in God’s eyes, atheists are not family people!

  48. [as an election issue it almost equals the colour of corflutes]
    …in the mind of anyone who hasn’t actually understood the proposal or its implications.

  49. [Wait for Neilsen and Newspoll.]

    Have we heard any tweeted warnings about expecting a shock re: Nielsen?

  50. Pedantry seems to imply that there was at least some substance to the point you were making.

    The first half of the sentence doesn’t mesh with the second half.

    Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here back in the day, when the site was a little more boutique.

    Should have been:

    “Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here [first concept, but when? We need an adverbial clause to say when… separated with a comma], back in the day when the site was a little more boutique”

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