Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

928 comments on “Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt”

  1. Psephos
    Have left my ph no on the office answering machine in Struggletown. For reasons that I will explain to you I need confidentiality maintained tw BW and the name I left. OH also happy to get stuck in.

  2. A case of deferred PPTSD (Post Poll Traumatic Stress Disorder). Another baddie or three are bound to lob, before the gradual effects of the Kev intervention start to filter through.

  3. [Such an idiot. It’s really very insulting to people who have to live under real dictatorships to engage in this kind of childishness.]

    Don’t worry. He earlier today demonstrated he hasn’t a clue what he is barking about.

  4. dave – even Bongiorno’s report on the BER was negative for Labor. Don’t forget that “spending stuff-ups” is the media’s baby. They’re not going to turn around and say “we didn’t report it right the first time”.

  5. I’m hoping the Labor frontliners are going to really give the Libs heaps over the next two weeks.

    They are now lying, pure and simple, because the press aren’t pulling them up on it. I am getting angrier and angrier.

    The trouble is, boycotting the news outlets doesn’t stop the lies.

    It’s getting to a point whee I feel like doing something desperate. It is fine to lose if you deserve to lose — but that is NOT the case with this govt. It has done so many good things and it has all been lost because the STUPID press have no social conscience.

  6. from Bernard Keane
    [ According to a special 7/Morgan poll, 98% of voters are sick of pollsters asking dumb questions 2 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

    and aren’t we sick of all the media making a big deal out of a poll every second day.

  7. [dave – even Bongiorno’s report on the BER was negative for Labor.]

    Unfortunately Bongiorno is our friendliest reporter, so I can’t really put much stock into that.

  8. Miranda Devine has quit the SMH and gone to LimitedNoos – a good place for her and even more reason for them to go behind their paywall.

  9. [and aren’t we sick of all the media making a big deal out of a poll every second day]

    Polls will go up, polls will go down. 😆

  10. [Such an idiot. It’s really very insulting to people who have to live under real dictatorships to engage in this kind of childishness.]
    I would suggest anyone who permits their democratic government to pass a law identical to laws in the “real dictatorships” you mention is the idiot. Unlike you, apparently, I’m concerned to keep this country from heading in that direction.

    Oh, and it was a joke. Lighten up.

  11. [that bloke has deadset made up his mind.]

    Probably true, but something else to take into consideration is that he’ll now feel inclined to go whingeing to his mates down at the pub about how that mean old Laborite Commie gave him the flick just for not sharing his political views, it’s all so unfair, those lefties are all so stuck-up and intolerant aren’t they, blah blah blah. And his mates, who may not be as rusted-on as he is, probably won’t take very kindly to hearing this.

    We certainly won’t win hearts and minds by doing that sort of thing, is all I’m sayin’…

  12. [He earlier today demonstrated he hasn’t a clue what he is barking about.]
    When was that, when I said I had a personal dislike for someone from your faction?

  13. [Coalition 51-49 Galaxy]

    Is that the one we just saw on 9? That was conducted over just 4 marginals. Not worth a tinker’s cuss.

  14. Plugging 2.8% swing to the Libs in NSW and Qld on Antony’s calculator gives a 5 seat loss in Qld and another 8 seats in NSW (making 76 to Labor). With Labor picking up a few in Vic, 1 in SA and losing a couple in WA and 1 in NT still puts them over the line. Just.

    Pebbles

    [ I told him to talk to his mother because I’m an atheist.

    I didn’t know that. I thought you were religious.]

    That just goes to show how fair and balanced I am. 😀

    One of my intellectual heroes is Dawkins.

  15. Galaxy poll of the 4 marginals:

    Primary ALP 39 (down 6 from ’07 vote), Coalition 44 (steady from ’07 vote).

    The 2PP is ALP 49, Coalition 51.

    Only some cephalopod somewhere knows the margin of error—Galaxy might be informing us later.

  16. [When was that, when I said I had a personal dislike for someone from your faction?]

    Because you went apeshit on me because I made a post on how I intended to vote, then went into a hateful, conpiracy-driven tirade about Champion and Ellis, then got sooky and accused a poster of slander.

    My faction is the ALP. Deal with it.

  17. It’s been a long while since the ABC 7pm news (2005, I think) described (then) government members, on the morning after the Budget was delivered, thus:

    “They’re on a winner, and they know it!”

    That was when I knew the fix was in at the ABC.

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