Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

928 comments on “Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt”

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19
  1. What’s missing from this poll is the undecided. Any poll that does not reflect the undecided is clearly missing crucial information.

  2. Hmmmm, let’s hope D@W’s “undecideds” and Frank’s post-Rudd-revivalists can be swayed to vote for Rick Sarre; I would SO love to see the end of Pyne.

  3. [Coalition MPs prepare revolt on paid parental leave plan

    SEVERAL Coalition MPs say they will fight to water down Tony Abbott’s generous paid parental leave scheme if they win government.

    The MPs, including one Liberal frontbencher, believe the scheme is excessive and discriminates against stay-at-home mothers.

    Nationals MP Darren Chester told The Australian his support for the scheme would be contingent on it being altered to offer stay-at-home mothers extra assistance.

    “I believe we need to be doing a lot more to recognise the important role that mothers who chose to stay at home do, and the debate around paid parental leave runs the risk of alienating them,” said the MP for the Victorian seat of Gippsland. “It’s critical that we recognise the shortage of childcare places in regional areas . . . My support for the Coalition scheme will be contingent upon specific programs for regional mums, including those who stay at home.”

    Another Nationals MP said his entire party was “dead against it” and would use its muscle as the junior Coalition partner to alter the scheme through the cabinet process if Mr Abbott won government.]

    As many here have been saying the Coles/Woolworths Tax PPL won’t be delivered. Has Abbott ever said that’s it is OK to tell lies? He’s been telling a very big lie about this one all along and I wonder how that sits with his catholic beliefs.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-mps-prepare-revolt-on-paid-parental-leave-plan/story-fn59niix-1225901859588

  4. Poor Virginia Trioli on Their ABC24 is shattered that Kevin Rudd daree rain on Tony Abbott’s oment in the sun on sunday – and How DARE John Howard is dragged in as well.

    My Heart bleeds for them – NOT 🙂

  5. The liberals decision to oppose any internet filter and open Australia up to porn and home grown terrorism is disturbing.

    How can the libs say they want to ban the burqua and feel confronted by homosexuality yet have no problem with kiddies being confronted by and able to access porn on the net, how does this reconcile with their family values?

    How can the libs say we have to stop the boats, there may be terrorists on board yet they want to give free access to detailed bomb making instructions on the net to any home grown terrorists we may have?

    The internet is a vast library of knowledge, doors to some sections of this knowledge like porn and terrorism related information should remain locked.

    An internet filter does not ensure the doors remain locked, any lock can be picked, but the filter serves two purposes.

    1. It will stop most kids accidentally viewing porn sites, some of which are named similar to popular kids programs, and it will stop disturbed or unhinged people who may be thinking of ways to commit large acts of violence against society.

    2. It won’t stop those determined to view porn or access terrorism related material, but it will make it easier to track them and take away any excuse that they accidentally stumbled across the sites.

    It is easier to arrest and convict someone who gains entry through a locked door than someone who strolls into an area where there is no door in place. Even the courts recognise this.

  6. Did anyone see The Drum last night? I’m just watching it now. What a disaster. It makes Sky News look like the BBC in comparison for slick, professional TV production.

  7. Re Sturt…….. is usually a liberal seat……. Labor’s last win was in 1969………. I wouldn’t be surprised If We failed to win it….. but this is not consistent with 60/40 in Kingston maybe the swings will be all over the place everywhere

  8. #10

    I didn’t see the Drum.

    However, recently I had the pleasure of observing the filming of 2 TV shows – Underbelly – the Golden Mile (commercial tv) and Rake (ABC tv). In terms of professionalism, and attention to detail, the ABC production was head and shoulders above the commercial one.

  9. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 2:20 am | Permalink

    ron, repeat slowly three times: R18+ rating for gamers and net filter are two distinctly separate issues.

    Also the compulsory ISP internet filter will not stop any p0rn. NONE! I am not explaining why; look it up for yourself.]

    If you anti filter mob are so adamant it want work why are you so against it?
    So what if sum cash is spent in looking for a way to filter some unsavoury stuff.

  10. Howard still lying his head off at a fund raiser. Calling Gillard the biggest failure ever, bigger than Rudd, Not mentioning the GFC of coarse.

  11. [ So what if sum cash is spent in looking for a way to filter some unsavoury stuff. ]

    What is the size of the “sum” ?

  12. [I didn’t see the Drum.]

    Well, it was atrocious. Presented by Annabel Crabb, who’s not a presenter. Camera on the wrong people. Camera on Annabel when she wasn’t read. Showing Joe Hockey arriving and passing in front of the camera. Asking Joe a question before he had his microphone attached. Pretending the question hadn’t been asked. Asking Joe a question before any sort of welcome (Joe made the point by answering as though he’d been welcomed). Antony Green fluffing his lines all through his description of Macarthur (sorry, Antony!). It was so bad that if it hadn’t been live they’d have chucked it out and started again.

    Incidentally, I had no idea that Macarthur had gone with the government at every election since its creation in 1949 until 2007, yet Eden-Monaro has got all the attention as “the” bellwether seat even though its record dates back only to 1972.

  13. Sportingbet now has began a book on who will be the next Foreign minister.

    They have taken a fortune from suckers wanting to donate money by backing Rabbott since the debate.

    Labor 1-50

    LNP 2-50

  14. I said it before, i’ll say it again, the Liberals will not lose Sturt. Now maybe some will believe me… I always end up right one way or another 🙂

  15. #21

    The real question on the betting markets is when to trade out of the $5.50 I got on Rabbott just before the election was called. Always love a win-win situation.

  16. If you anti filter mob are so adamant it want work why are you so against it?
    So what if sum cash is spent in looking for a way to filter some unsavoury stuff.

    Because the filter will be used to block things the GOVERNMENT doesn’t want you to see, like wiki-leaks. Or perhaps coverage of an unpopular war.

  17. I did watch the Drum last night for the first time and the camera work was shocking, which made me suspect that possibly the cameras are remote controlled by the director for cost saving reasons ? That would explain why the close up of the graph in Crabbs segment took forever. The Hockey interview was more of a love in and very light weight.

    Disappointing !

  18. Peter of Marino@29

    I did watch the Drum last night for the first time and the camera work was shocking, which made me suspect that possibly the cameras are remote controlled by the director for cost saving reasons ? That would explain why the close up of the graph in Crabbs segment took forever. The Hockey interview was more of a love in and very light weight.

    Disappointing !

    Indeed that is the case – the News Cameras are indeed remote controlled – and it shows.

  19. [Because the filter will be used to block things the GOVERNMENT doesn’t want you to see, like wiki-leaks. Or perhaps coverage of an unpopular war.]
    What proof do you have?
    [What is the size of the “sum” ?]
    The sum is not that important, what is important is that something is done.

  20. [Former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser will be speaking to ABC News Breakfast just after 8.15am.]

    Poor Malcolm he has to get on the former PM bus. 😆

  21. Jon
    Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 12:37 am | Permalink
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/05/stuff-in-the-papers/comment-page-38/#comment-552590

    How long you reckon wiki-leaks would last?

    As long as remote proxies and RSA encryption last.

    … and if you decide to talk about the content you find on that banned wiki site, you’ll also run afoul of the law. That’s the reality of censorship sunshine.

    The only way you can ensure there’s no net-filter, is to vote for the sex party, or for the greens.

  22. Because the filter will be used to block things the GOVERNMENT doesn’t want you to see, like wiki-leaks. Or perhaps coverage of an unpopular war.

    What proof do you have?

    By seeing the wiki-leaks released black-list of the net-filter, and finding out how many NON-sexual related sites were on the black-list.

    The fact that you don’t know this shows how much you’ve even bothered to look.

  23. [Tell me, what do …

    paradisepoker.com
    absolutepoker.com
    cdpoker.com
    fulltiltpoker.com
    hollywoodpoker.com
    pacificpoker.com
    partypoker.com
    pokernews.com
    pokerroom.com
    pokerstars.com

    … have to do with pornography.]

    Depends on the nature of the poking I guess.

  24. The point is, that that list will keep on growing, with every type of site they think is not in the public interest. The last time I looked, playing poker online wasn’t a crime. Some of those sites don’t even require you to put money on them.

    So they will ban sites just because they think it is a good idea, not even if it is illegal. And wiki-leaks? Which released the list? They’ll be banned too. And if you talk about the content on that list, you’ll have circumvented the net-filter, and that will be a crime too.

  25. [The last time I looked, playing poker online wasn’t a crime. ]

    Actually it is, if the company is based outside Australia.

  26. Radio National Breakfast: a panel stacked completely in favour of Abbott, particularly Macolm Farr and Michelle Grattan & of course Fran Kelly.
    It is “Their ABC” after all 😉

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 19
1 2 19