The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).
[Wow. Someone who actually supports the filter. Amazing.]
Don’t be fooled Ryan, have you heard anyone else here supporting the filter before.
I wonder what’s changed, oh that’s right, the Liberals have come out and said they don’t support it.
No it isn’t. Playing poker FOR MONEY is illegal outside of Australia.
Read what I wrote.
Michelle Grattan completely in favour of Abbott?
I don’t think so.
evan14
Yes it is their ABC I had to turn it off.
Did you hear them replay the esteemed Howie at fundraiser saying wonderful things abot Julia and Kev? Funny that, Julia states she admired Howie, and Howie responds in kind!!
No there have always been people on here who support the filter. There has been many a long debate on it.
The gloves are definately off now, Julia always calls him Mr Abbott, no more Tony.
Contrast their cynicism about Rudd with the enthusiasm for the return of the Rodent – ABC should be renamed “The Abbott Broadcasting Corporation”.
[No there have always been people on here who support the filter. There has been many a long debate on it.]
All as boring as bat poo. 😆
With a 4% margin of error it could be 51-49, hardly good for Pyne.
About time the gloves came off – Liberals never perform well in that environment. They do best when they can slither away, roll themselves into tiny balls, avoid debates…
[Labor probably should put some resources into Boothby instead.]
During the last election, we received a massive amount of mail from the ALP, pretty much in line with the volume from Pyne.
This election, we’ve hardly had a thing from the ALP, but the same volume from Pyne.
I’m not at all convinced that the ALP have really seriously targeted Sturt during this campaign.
Based on that poll, it looks like Sturt will return back to the normal margin.
I’m amazed most of you Labor supporters welcome back Rudd, it may shore up Queensland by a tiny margin but it will cost more in Victoria, I have family and friends living down there who I communicate with regularly, some Labor, some undecided and some Liberal, a pretty even sprinkling. They are united in one thing though, they hate Rudd.
Diogenes
****Vomit Alert!!****
Whatever you do this morning, don’t turn on the TV. You’ll see the rodent in full flight.
Keep your breakfast down. Avoid it at all costs.
evan14
Never mind the fact that K Rudd is a member of Parliament and the Rodent lost his seat at the last election Kev campaigning and supporting Labor is the right thing to do for the party. But according to their ABC the spiritual father of the Rabbott has every right to support his spiritual son and bag our current PM.
The meme from them is Rudd is destabilising, Rodent supporting.
BER report released today. What will Augill say?
Howard coming back shouting abuse was a classic Liberal mistep, too. For the Liberals to win the electorate needed to be sedated and put to sleep. Any signs of the electorate waking up to see Howard back is a strong plus for Labor..
Perahelion
Rudd will campaign in Qld. where he will make a huge difference. Victoria is not in the mix. Julia is popular here, and support for Labor is stable, and it won’t make a bit of difference.
We must understand that each state has its own distinct dynamic.
Here is the model for the unhinged one’s approach to media scrutiny.
[Howard coming back shouting abuse was a classic Liberal mistep, too. For the Liberals to win the electorate needed to be sedated and put to sleep. Any signs of the electorate waking up to see Howard back is a strong plus for Labor..]
Some of the electorate that is, but it solidifies the Liberal base even more.
Morning Bludgers.
Haven’t noticed any discussion to this effect on here (or any of my usual haunts, for that matter), so I thought I’d start one.
Exhibit 1 – the new Mining Tax ads “You’re Gonna Get Whacked”.
My first reaction – as a woman – was to be totally horrified. I cannot believe that it could possibly have NOT occurred to anyone involved with this that they were evoking domestic violence imagery. It is truly appalling.
Worst still is the implication in the ad that it is THEM who will be doing the whacking. After all, the only way it can impact on the lives or ordinary people is if THEY make it so. They might as well have just come out and said “WE are going to whack you if you let the Labor Party bring this in”.
Can’t wait to hear what they say about this next week on Gruen Nation, but I’m also interested to hear what Bludgers feel about it. Did you read this into it and, if so (or not) is that likely to fall along gender lines – like so much in this election?
John Faine on ABC 774 doing his best to make Julia look bad. If only he did the same to Abbott (if he’d go on).
Perahelion
It could be argued that Rudd solidifies Labor’s base. After all, he has his own seat to contest. Why is it wrong for Rudd to support, and okay for the Rodent??
Until Now I’ve barely seen one negative ad from the ALP on TV until now, and 100’s from the Libs? Have the ALP gone to Lunch? OR has the ALP got something BIG on the Rabbott that their holding out on till the last week or so (so the libs are stuck with him). Is there anybody here in the Know?
[We must understand that each state has its own distinct dynamic.]
I recognize that, but in this age of TV and saturated election campaigns he will be seen everywhere, especially given his controversy.
But really I hope I’m wrong on this (even though I don’t think I am), Julia should not be affected by his unpopularity, (outside of Queensland anyway), to be trite that would by unfair and unbalanced.
chinda63
Those ads you speak of are ridiculous and comical to say the least. I don’t know the exact figures, but mining revenues have been reported to have gone through the roof.
These huge profits were reported in the past few days, and all Labor needs to do is point this out.
The miners don’t have a leg to stand on really, it is a joke.
[Howard coming back shouting abuse was a classic Liberal mistep, too. For the Liberals to win the electorate needed to be sedated and put to sleep. Any signs of the electorate waking up to see Howard back is a strong plus for Labor..]
Are you *sure* about that?
Howard’s last Newspoll was 47% approve 44% disapprove. Stop being revisionist…
Big Nose, I doubt the ALP have anything on Abbott. He’s a known quantity.
Perahelion.
I would prefer Rudd being out in his electorate and other marginals in Qld. supporting Labor and their leader to the max.
If I were a Liberal sympathiser, I would have preferred him to pack up his bag and go home and sulk. Then the meme could continue to be from them that Labor are unstable, there is disunity, Rudd is out for revenge blah blah blah.
Rudd campaigning for Labor is the best thing to have happened so far.
The Fundamentalist Adventures of Tony Abbott – A Musical
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BC49dJSo5k
For your viewing pleasure.
Potentially, both parties have made a mistake by raising the campaign profile of former PMs because it diminishes the strength of the current leaders in the eyes of the public.
I think the ALP have more to lose though, because Howard is still seen as a good PM by many people, so the association with Abbott may give some the feeling that we have the opportunity to go back to the good old days under Howard.
Bruup Bruup, Bruup Bruup
“Ahem, Kevin Rudd, Ex-prime minister speaking”
“It’s Julia”
“Roberts?”
“No, you wanker, Gillard! Who else speaks like a run over Gekko!!!”
“Sorry, I didn’t recognise you without the buzz of the chainsaw!”
“Listen we are in trouble. Can you give us a hand?”
“I’ll check my calendar.. Alistair! oh! Old habits..wellllll, ok, but only if I get a water cooler in my office.. that does HOT water as well!”
“Shut up! Look, these Australians are infuriating!! They hate John Howard, now they’d love him back, they hated you and… well, I’m out there talking to people and spreading the message and showing people more of myself..”
“Julia, please don’t, I’m feeling sick already, anyway, I’m voiting for myself in Griffith so don’t ‘pitch’ me!!”
“Just come and stand next to me like glue around Queensland and say how great I am and what a good leader I am, and tell me my hair looks nice, Tim did it this morning. Gotta pick up my daily pitch off email, need to run, I’ll ring later, ok!”
“What Terese? No, just someone asking if I’d like to change my daggers! No, I am not spewing more bile! I’ve had my gall bladder removed, you know woman!!”
Click.
Just been listening to Joe Hockey on ABC 702 Sydney say that borrowing money (“$100 million a day”) deprives small business and local communities of funds for essential projects and services.
Eh?
Just on simple arithmetic: how can having less money to spend (by not borrowing it) deprive small business and local communities of funds? Isn’t that why money is being borrowed?
Traveller.
Very entertaining, but also a little frightening!! I think it encapsulated him pretty well.
With John Howard in one ear and George Pell in the other what sort of leader do you thing the unhinged one would make?
I agree Triffid. Didn’t exit polling from the 2007 election people still had a relatively good view of Howard and his Government?
I don’t think Rudd’s reemergence will do any significant damage to the ALP campaign because most of the damage had already been dealt.
[Big Nose, I doubt the ALP have anything on Abbott. He’s a known quantity.]
Well then the conclusion is that they’ve run the most pathetic election campaign in history and their well AND truly sunk! sigh 🙁
BK
A very scary one?
Traveller, what were the good things about the Howard years? I don’t remember a single positive aspect about that government.
It will provide more spring in my step knowing people like you will be bitter and twisted for many years until you learn about unmanipulated popularity.
Sorry traveller, I meant triffid
[Didn’t exit polling from the 2007 election people still had a relatively good view of Howard and his Government?]
That is why the Coalition won the 2007 election 😀
BB
No wonder the ALP can run a budget.
The government, being in the limited debt market, creates unnecessary competition which leaves less debt money available, which raises both lending criteria and interest rates on money that IS available. If Labor spends debt money, it will go to Unionised Labor (74% of the current stimulus, compared with 3.8% to small business). Small business, through their tax burden, will pay for this borrowed stimulus money, even though they directly benefitted from only a pittance.
IF the Govt stopped borrowing, then more of the wholesale debt (at lower interest rates) is available for small business and the overall tax burden on the nation is reduced (paying less money servicing debt).
Do you get it now?
BB
[No wonder the ALP can run a budget.]
sorry “Can’t”
castle
[How can the libs say they want to ban the burqua and feel confronted by homosexuality yet have no problem with kiddies being confronted by and able to access porn on the net, how does this reconcile with their family values?]
The filter doesn’t stop children accessing porn any more than it stops adults accessing porn, unless the porn is RC (which means bestiality, kiddie porn etc). If you are going to make a shrill, emotive argument try to keep it in some way in contact with reality.
evan14 @ 45
[Radio National Breakfast: a panel stacked completely in favour of Abbott, particularly Macolm Farr and Michelle Grattan & of course Fran Kelly.
It is “Their ABC” after all]
So you think Radio National’s 1.5% market share is a game changer?
From what people here who live in Sturt have been saying about Pyne’s local campaigning ability, I guess Sturt was always going to be a hard one for Labor to win. However much I’d love to see Pyne lose his seat.
[Do you get it now?]
Mick still having arithmetic problems I see.
Govt debt is funded by Govt bonds, a totally different market. Why did Costello have $50 billion in Govt bonds on issue?
Hockey still thinks, or certainly talks, as if all the money the govt borrows is raised in Australia rather than on the international money markets, i.e. he is 20 years behind.
The other lie the Libs spread is that if people and companies are saving money the govt should too: nope, the govt should be out there spending to provide the money for the saving/deleveraging and to keep some economic activity going, like the BER.
@Steve 61
At least we now know where the doctors re-implanted Kevin’s gall bladder.
@All,
Did anyone catch Malcolm Fraser’s sobering assessment of Abbott’s fitness to be PM in his interview with Fran Kelly this morning – it was simple and spine tingling. I hope it gets a lot of air play today.
evan14 @ 45…exactly and same goes for sky news. they have less than 1% of the market….
No.
If there is $100 million less in the economy – whether borrowed or saved – then there is $100 million less to spend on small business and local services.
I don’t buy this thing that government and small business are in competition, especially with interest rates as low as they are.
Then there are the local services, like hospitals, schools and even footy fields and traffic bypasses: they aren’t going to borrow money. They rely on government finance. If the government doesn’t borrow money to pay for them, where is the money going to come from?