Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt

The Advertiser’s third electorate poll of the campaign brings bad news for Labor in Sturt, held for the Liberals by Christopher Pyne on a margin of 0.9 per cent. The survey of 575 respondents conducted on Wednesday evening has Pyne leading Labor’s Rick Sarre 55-45 on two-party preferred and 49 per cent to 35 per cent on the primary vote, compared with 47.2 per cent and 41.5 per cent at the 2007 election. The Greens are on 10 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent in 2007. More happily for Labor, Julia Gillard was rated stronger on the economy by 44 per cent compared with 41 per cent for Tony Abbott, and as more honest by 46 per cent compared with 38 per cent for Abbott. The margin of error on the poll is about 4 per cent. Previous Advertiser polls had Labor leading 67-33 in Kingston two weeks ago (a swing to Labor of 12.5 per cent), and Liberal leading 52-48 in Boothby one week ago (a swing to Labor of 1 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

928 comments on “Advertiser poll: 55-45 to Liberal in Sturt”

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  1. The ABC has reported that The Poodle is claiming that waste from the BER program is $8 Billion. The man either can’t read or he’s a stinking great liar.

  2. Mithrandir @ 734

    [And how can you verify that some 12 year old hasn’t answered it?]

    The same could be said for an online, or a telephone poll – how do you ever know if the claims made by the person answering the phone or the e-mail as to their age are, in fact, correct?

  3. [The ABC has reported that The Poodle is claiming that waste from the BER program is $8 Billion. The man either can’t read or he’s a stinking great liar.]

    Or he’s jumping on the Coalition’s “Say whatever it takes to get elected” express.

  4. [The ABC has reported that The Poodle is claiming that waste from the BER program is $8 Billion. The man either can’t read or he’s a stinking great liar.]

    Or he is getting Robb to do the numbers.

  5. @ mithrandir,

    an sms poll could only really be conducted if it was sent to a database of subscribed respondents.

    as to whether this respondent database represents a representative sample of the population as a whole is anyone’s guess.

  6. Clive Palmer and Anna Bligh have settled on legal action relating to comments made by the Premier prior to the last election.

  7. If you refer to page 166 of Shitstorm by Lenore Taylor and David Uren, Malcolm Turnbull claims that Christopher Pyne argued regarding the stimulus that the Coalition should “hold it’s nose and pass it through.”

    Any claims this sycophant makes regarding stimulus programs should me heard/read with this quote in mind.

  8. @The Big Ship 747

    Yes, I wasn’t having a dig at you – just at the amazingly poor quality of polling we all seem content to put up with – from supposedly “reputable” polling companies.

    We are all chasing our tails about polls that have either extremely poor methodology (as this one does), or extremely biased questions (as most of them seem to) or extremely small sample sizes (as many of the “daily” polls do) – sometimes all three.

    Where’s the sense in even commissioning a poll with a 3-4% MOE when EVERY election in Australian history has been decided on smaller margins than that? Ok – I may be exaggerating slightly here, but I’m sure you get my drift 🙂

    Tea-leaf reading is an exact science compared to this!

  9. [You’re dead wrong. I won’t go into details, but based upon my acquaintance I’m not a fan.]

    If you are making these accusations on a blog -a public forum you should be upfront as to the details otherwise it is malicous gossip.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ 615

    [Who was the plaintiff/respondent? The AEC?]

    Don’t know about the respondent but the plaintiffs are quoted as “two young Australians”

    [The advocacy group GetUp! believes tens of thousands of people may have been excluded from the electoral rolls because they missed registration deadlines introduced by the Howard government in 2006.

    Before the changes, voters had just seven days after an election was called to enrol to vote. Under the new laws, the rolls shut on the day the election writs were issued.

    Two young Australians who found themselves in such a position took their case to the High Court, arguing the changes to shorten enrolment cut-offs were unconstitutional.]

    Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/06/2975602.htm

  11. I have no idea, but if the SMS poll was done with people they had previously polled, they might be able to weight it. Just a guess.

  12. [So which electorate do you live in, Patrick Bateman?]
    Want to look me up in the database?

    I live in Adelaide.

  13. [If you are making these accusations on a blog -a public forum you should be upfront as to the details otherwise it is malicous gossip.]

    It is malicious gossip. Champion, as well as (equally maligned in his post) Ellis, are actually very well received and accessible by their constituents and are both hard workers.

    It’s a whinge about the Right faction by a know-it-all sock sniffer.

  14. ltep

    [Mark Latham is producing a story for 60 Minutes which will air on 15 August.]

    That’ll be fun to watch! And the date is so opportune.

  15. the big shop @ 747,

    think standard methodology in market research is absolute BALL$!!! in no way is my statement a criticism of you.

    anyway, the sms question couldn’t have been too long, due to the limitations of space, and, the means of answering would most likely be restricted to a ‘y’ or ‘n’ answer.

  16. Ah yes. Mobile phone numbers aren’t publicly available.

    I wonder if Morgan will do that regularly now. Would be interesting to see how accurate their face to face, phone and sms polls are this election.

  17. [Want to look me up in the database?

    I live in Adelaide.]

    Don’t be paranoid. Nobody’s out to get you.

    I was just curious.

  18. autocrat @ 792

    The Poodle is claiming that waste from the BER program is $8 Billion. The man either can’t read or he’s a stinking great liar.

    I’ve seen this figure posted in the Lib ads on TV too.
    Gillard should just point out that the figures bandied around are outright lies.

    Wouldn’t it be a good idea to get the tradies on board? Point out that the accusations are really a slur against all tradies for being rip-off merchants and this could potentially create a bit of a backlash.

  19. [If you are making these accusations on a blog -a public forum you should be upfront as to the details otherwise it is malicous gossip.]
    I’ve made no accusations other than that I’m not a great fan of the guy, and upon being accused of knowing nothing about him have simply refuted that. I’ll agree not to anonymously criticise any politicians here when others agree not to anonymously cheerlead for their preferred factional hack(s).

    Engaging in public debate, anonymous or otherwise, about political matters is not slander, BigBob, which incidentally is a concept which has been abolished in Australian law.

  20. Has anyone posted this?

    [ sspencer_63

    Poll frenzy tonight. Nine has a Galaxy Pol, Fairfax has a Nielsen poll and the West Australian has a Westpoll (WA only). #ausvotes 2 minutes ago via web]

  21. I should clarify that he is the ‘journalist’ for the story rather than the subject. As part of the story he filmed an interview with Bob Brown.

  22. Tweet from Possom
    [Poll frenzy tonight. Nine has a Galaxy Pol, Fairfax has a Nielsen poll and the West Australian has a Westpoll (WA only) ]

  23. Channel Nine should just let the Liberal party take over their news department for the last week. They couldn’t be any less balanced than what Latham is.

  24. [Don’t be paranoid. Nobody’s out to get you.

    I was just curious.]
    Fair enough. I know nobody is out to get me, I also know that the ALP in SA has a way of keeping track of people who criticise them.

    I think K. Ellis is a reasonable person, but it bothers me that her life experience is birth->school->Flinders Uni->student politics->state politics->federal politics. I also wonder whether she’d be where she is if she wasn’t attractive.

  25. I was defending you, dolt.

    By your statement, you acted as if you held some dark, personal secret about whomever it was.

    It didn’t sound like political debate.

    And you can still be held to account for slanderous remarks, so I don’t know how it’s been abolished.

  26. #707 The independent guy running for Franklin is a bit of an enigma. He also ran for Franklin in the State election seemingly without putting out any material at all.

    All I can find out about him is 1. He’s an accountant 2. He is the Treasurer of the UTAS Hockey Club 3. He rejoices in the nickname “Fanta” (so presumably has red hair) and 4. He lives in Dynnyrne, which is in Denison.

    Why these people decide to run for Parliament with seemingly no agenda and with significantly less than a snowball’s chance in hell of even recovering their deposit is a total mystery to me. Perhaps he thinks its a talking point with the ladies (“Hi, I’m a Sagittarius and did you know that I’m also running for the lower house seat of Franklin, let me buy you a drink”.

  27. [I was defending you, dolt.]

    That’s slander, sir.

    I was being a pedant – I just meant that it’s all “defamation” now.

    Reminds me of this, speaking of the ALP right in South Australia.

  28. meher baba, what vote did he get in the state election? Perhaps he’s doing some sort of electoral experiment where he sees what the absolute lowest vote one can get is.

  29. A hospital bed is not a hospital bed unless it is fully supported by doctors, nurses, etc.
    the Coalition’s performance in providing the required forward support capacity was a national disgrace.
    What’is the unhinged one’s plan to provide the support to qualify the beds as beds.
    Also the pledge to provide the beds is a mirage. He is saying to the states that he’ll pay them only when the beds are there. On previous form he’ll starve the states of health funding so it will never happen.

  30. [Reporting on the ground in Deakin, Malcolm Farnsworth is detecting a faint whiff of new hope emerging within the Labor Party’s campaign.

    The Labor Party has also had some success in getting back on track with the issues. Even though Wayne Swan was caught out yesterday by a question about interest on government borrowings, there has been a sense these past two days that the Labor campaign is, pardon the expression, moving forward. Bread and butter issues such as assistance to families, superannuation and health are getting media attention.]

    From the ABC shock horror. 😉

  31. [So 3 reasons to be depressed tonight then? ]

    Hmm..

    Abbott is still wasting valuable oxygen
    Bolt is still wasting valuable oxygen
    Hockey isn’t wearing a clown suit

  32. [birth->school->Flinders Uni->student politics->state politics->federal politics.]

    Sounds very similar to Abbotts life experience

  33. [Sounds very similar to Abbotts life experience]

    Do you also wonder if he would’ve got to where he was if he wasn’t attractive?

  34. [Do you also wonder if he would’ve got to where he was if he wasn’t attractive?]

    I think he might have peaked and hit the slippery slope this week.

  35. Well there’s one poll that should cheer up people like Itep: a poll of former prime ministers (who should know something about politics).

    For the Coalition: John Howard.

    For Labor: Gough Whitlam, Malcolm Fraser, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating, Kevin Rudd.

  36. What would a poll of past Oppostion Leaders say Toorak and would that poll be indicative of who will win or who will lose?

  37. [Sounds very similar to Abbotts life experience]

    His would be more along the lines of:

    birth-> some appalling unknown event leaving permanent psychological scarring-> school-> Uni-> love of his life breaking his heart and turning him against women forever-> student politics-> finding out a close mate is gay and fearing gays forever-> state politics-> federal politics

  38. This is giving me the tom tits. Gillard is standing there several times per day withstanding a journo barrage.
    Where’s the unhinged one getting the treatment???????

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