Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.
UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.
Victoria, any proper evidence?
Ok the corrected primary figures are consistent
with the tpp of 48/52. So
it’s a move direct from
ALP to lib not involving
Green voters.
scott from melbourne
yes – as the Labor candidate for Canberra (I think). Either that or Fraser.
1996
[Centre, too true. Costello and Howard would have been hailed as economic geniuses. With Labor the MSM goes, ho hum]
If that was the case Howie could then have gone on to beat Menzies’ record LoL!
[How the next week plays out will define the campaign. If Gillard can’t regain the momentum by next week, then we’re all moving to NZ!]
TSOP, are you sure that you want to go there? It is the country that Tony thinks Australia should be more like.
The problem for me is that on the ground here thinks are still looking fine as SA still looks pretty solid for the ALP. It’s the QLD and NSW mood that really interests me.
Julie Bishop as Foreign Minister …
The comedy continues Glen.
They need to remind Australia about these cretins on the front bench if we have any hope of preventing this disaster
[Since abandoning the ETS, everyone has been saying that the government stood for nothing – then the citizens assembly proves it.]
The Citizens Assembly was one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen. Not only because it’s lame policy, but the sheer ineptitude of the political thinking behind it. “How can we really prove that we’re all talk and no action … yes, this ought to do it!”
Not that the Liberal campaign has been any better, overall, I’d have to say.
Andrew
What do you mean?
Dr Good
That is using last elections prefs. All indications are that the Greens are now 65-35 rather than 75-25 so it could actually be 47-53 depending on how Nielsen directed the preferences.
[TSOP, are you sure that you want to go there? It is the country that Tony thinks Australia should be more like.]
Honestly, if I had to emigrate, I’d love to go live in Paris again. I loved it there.
Pyne = Education
Dutton = Health
LOL oh dear!
Darren I was first to pick out Gillard’s Citizens’ Assembly as her Medicare Gold Moment. I dare say she cant afford another one!
Boerwar,
just catching up with the blog. Blueys report was outastanding as usual
The schools stimulus programme was a great success – but it was ruined by the DET here in NSW. They made sure the school I work at would not manage the project for what we wanted and made it impossible to get money within time frames etc.
darren, an effective labor ad could show the rabble team
and victoria, its a good principle to avoid all internal polling reports. and from ulhman? Please. Unless labor wants people to think they are behind
yet he bashes the labor party and his wife make a comfortable life out of it, lol
And let me just be clear, the Rudd – blood – Gillard govt did not fail at anything except selling a message of success, that is to say if it failed at all it was because it was more concerned with governing well than it was with selling rubbish.
BER – great success not a failure.
Pink batts – great success not a failure.
Original mining tax both fair and sensible for Australia.
The list is long and very impressive for a first term govt.
If it is a one term government it will not be what it did that caused its downfall. it will be the absolute death of substance in Australian politics. One of my reasons for my dislike of Alan was that he was all form and no substance, certainly nothing at all like labor substance …. he would have got away with it if he’d won but the reality seems to be that labor can sell neither substance nor form.
Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull
On a slightly different note – I do love the repeated footage of Howard delivering a ball into the pitch at his feet whenever they are talking about his candidacy for the presidency of ICC. Probably not one of the best from his highlights package.
The problem with selling the handling of the gfc is that no one thanks you for preventing a disaster….same reason preventative health never gets the funding it deserves. Fact is that apart from waiting for the shit to hit the fan in trepidation, the average voter didn’t feel the effects of the gfc so won’t thank the alp that much for supposedly keeping Australia out of it. By contrast the public hates maladministration, indecisive policy making and disunity. Those issues move votes and that is why IMHO then polls are so volatile.
If Rudd had
1. Gone for a double dissolution on climate change and
2. Never introduced his mining tax until after the election
he would have s…t in. But he stuffed it.
And never ever sold the economic stimulus success.
The simple truth is that the Coalition campaign is a mess of contradictions and columns of figures that don’t add up.
The clincher for them is that they are not, repeat NOT, being asked to explain any of it.
While the media remains obsessed with meta politics and gotchas, Labor is toast.
I think it’s clear from this poll that the ALP has had a pretty disastrous week! 🙂
When the RBA announces next week that they won’t raise interest rates, I think we might see a different story.
There’s something to motivate us. Wipe that hubris-filled smirk off Glen’s face.
[Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull]
That’s be the only good thing about an Abbott Prime Ministership. Turnbull would do a good job.
However, instability at the top LoL eat your heart out!
Andrew
It was reported by him on ABC. His partner is involved with the Labor Party.
I sense you do not believe this poll (granted it is not official yet)?
Peter Costello must be wondering what the hell he has done …
[Probably not one of the best from his highlights package.]
Spectator, depends on which side of the political spectrum one sits!
[If Rudd had
1. Gone for a double dissolution on climate change and
2. Never introduced his mining tax until after the election
he would have s…t in. But he stuffed it.]
Exactly.
[Wipe that hubris-filled smirk off Glen’s face.]
TSOP who says I’d be happy with Tony Abbott running the country?
I’ve consistently said he’d be a shoddy PM and that he’s a policy vacuum?
He’d be terrible and last 1 term tops that is if Labor doesnt split into Pro and Anti Rudd factions!
Shit, meet fan.
Frank compared Rudd to Menzies this morning. I don’t think he stopped to think what the comparison meant for Labor. But if he has access to internal polling and he had anything to do with setting this up; no wonder he was cranky.
Yes Glen, he could have.
Andrew, how many boats coming to our shores would we have heard about if Howard was PM?
BM, Labor have exactly three weeks to fight for their economic record, explain there policy differences and point out all of Abbott’s policy backflips.
Jasmine you must rejoicing thinking those three programs a success. They are the factors that allow the libs paint the
I am yet to be convinced about the Green pref flow though.
It’s going to be 70-80 to ALP
Jasmine
“BER – great success not a failure.” I agree
“Pink batts – great success not a failure.” No way – every single one has to be checked to work out if it was done right – the insulation industry has been destroyed. Another house fire today.
“Original mining tax both fair and sensible for Australia.” I agree with you – but the government picked ONE thing out of a major report on reforming the taxation system and basically ignored everything else. The Henry review was stuffed to start with as they were precluded from looking at GST. Should have been entire.
Then they should have gone big.
The list is long and very impressive for a first term govt. NOT really
[Frank compared Rudd to Menzies this morning. I don’t think he stopped to think what the comparison meant for Labor. But if he has access to internal polling and he had anything to do with setting this up; no wonder he was cranky.]
Julia Gillard is no Arthur Fadden.
i am really questioning why i am a labor supporter tonight?, when their own politicians and hangers on like that d head from the abc dont give a sh** lol
#95 Pebbles
It is that sort of attitude that makes some Greens voters even contemplate the Libs in the first place. The way I see it Abbott sucks big time but in reality are the ALP that far behind? If Julia showed some leadership and passion instead of spouting slogans at every oppourtunity, perhaps things wouldnt be looking so dire for the true believers.
BTW I will vote Greens 1, but my second prefrence will go the Labor party so no smart arse remarks about Greenies being in allience with the Libs 🙂
This is the opinion poll Labor had to have.
They are the factors that saved 100,000’s of jobs and saved us all from a recession, only a complete and utter fool would have wanted a recession.
I don’t understand exactly how the libs could have sold a person dying of thirst a glass of water over the last 15 years, but they seem to be able to sell a glass of sand or at best a glass of salt water to about 50% of the population most of the time.
It is possibly an accurate sample. Consider what the Rudd/Gillard leadership has been able to accomplish:
They have wedged their own supporters on Climate Change
They have wedged their own supporters on A-S
They have wedged their own supporters on Leadership
They have mobilized their opponents on fiscal management
They have allowed themselves to appear to be a bunch of fakes who cannot fight for anything because they don’t believe in anything. At the end of the day, if they are not prepared to fight for what they believe in, why bother voting for them?
This is absolutely hopeless: a choice between the horribly ineffectual and the indescribably useless!
I am tossing up between the Secular Party of Australia and the Australian Sex Party as my second preference. Screw the Liberal HTV cards putting Family First 2nd.
[BTW I will vote Greens 1, but my second prefrence will go the Labor party so no smart arse remarks about Greenies being in allience with the Libs]
That’s all I ask.
I have no problem with Greens who are preference Labor over the Libs.
When Abbott is the alternative, I have nothing but contempt though for Greens who would preference the Libs, especially when it is just to send a message to Labor.
Brissy Rod.
Are you saying that this is the medicine Labor had to swallow, and that from here on end they will get their shit together?
[Julia Gillard is no Arthur Fadden.]
No; but if the NSW right manage to screw things up federally and in NSW Labor will change.
BB, the coalition’s numbers do not add up, as per George M. To keep their promise of a bigger surplus than Labor, they are going to have to make some more massive cuts.
When the new asylum policy came out it sounded so good and then we find out it was incompetently or prematurely dealt with. At least it was good policy to find a regional solution.
When the climate change policy came out – it was laughable.
The leaker shows that there are many in the ALP who prefer Schadenfreude and knifing to winning government and being able to do something positive.
Gilliard should just get on a bike and start riding around or power walking, kicking balls and filleting fish. just stop talking about any policy or anything substantive as the media do not want to hear about it. the media want stunts that all – pretty simple. sky diving or bungy jumping maybe an option. shots of her dropping flowers off to kevin then going surfing at the gold coast.
@Briefly, the problem with Labor is that they entered into debates which they should not have, such as the A-S policy, the Coalition party started this debate, and thus media frenzy decided it was good story to attack Labor on.
On top of this, Gillard was highly expected to remove the ISP Filtering debate entirely and put Senator Lundy in as ICT Minister.
It doesnt matter if the Liberals numbers dont add up. They have been able to sell a simple message based on repetition that the ALP can’t manage money and projects.