Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Dr Good, the coalition usually get 20% of Greens preferences, so that’s 3%, giving them 48%. Unless they are getting a great share of Green preferences, they have to get 80% of the others (4 out of 5 %) to get to 52. Is this feasible?

  4. Pebble my dear friend, I was just making a point that you have to call me a green or vulture to rebutt it is all the satisfaction i need. Well not quite as satisfying as Alan losing after the idiot fest we got to witness over here but still I think my point is valid. Either they knifed Rudd because they didn’t like him and were looking for an opportunity or because the polling was bad. If it was because the polling was bad, isn’t this polling bad, and on their kind of logic why not knife Julia now.

    I know the reality is always more complex than the message and I’m largely having fun, but there is a serious reality and that is the assumption that it is so very very clear that Alan, however bad he is, is better than Colin, or that Julia no matter how bad she is will be better than Abbott. That kind of call only works when you win.

    And I like Julia, if she does lose and boy I hope she doesn’t, but if she does she’ll pay a price but most of the clowns who caused it will get off scott free just as they did in WA.

  6. Get real you numbskulls.

    Rudd, a great PM, was massacred by Rupe’s men over the pink batts scheme. Then Rudd proposed a flawed, that’s right it was a bloody flawed, mining tax.

    Labor had to fix the tax, and made the decision to change leaders.

  8. GG

    We’d give Julia, Arbib, Shorten and Bitar a game at the moment. At least they’re motivated, not like our apathetic bunch.

  10. [Pebble my dear friend, I was just making a point that you have to call me a green or vulture to rebutt it is all the satisfaction i need.]

    I apologise, I was a bit rash.

    I just think people underestimate Labor and unfortunately, there are some partisan vultures who jump with glee as soon as they see one bad poll for Labor.

  14. [“Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes…”

    Sorry William but I believe I have the ALP Primary Vote wrong. I believe it is 36, not 38.]

    Ghots, you should supply free fibillators when you make a correction like that!

  16. hawthorn and labor, i only mentioned those remarks as a sign of frustration im beggining to think why should i care about the party just as a suppourter when their
    own polticians dont seem to really care

  17. Diog they all may have a lot of free time for the end of the season if they continue to keep Abbott in the hunt. Abbott seems to relish (good polls or good press) it’s like he’s powered by em or something.

    Seems crazy the Libs have gone up so much. Labor have had a bad week but it is surprising to see such a swing given this is after all the Seinfeld Election.

  18. Centre, you can’t blame murdoch for the absolute disaster that the pink batts scheme became. There was little idea about the possibility that people might take advantage of the scheme and what would happen.

    The government has been completely unable to comprehend this point. It happened in a lot of the green style schemes.

  20. The mining tax wasn’t at all flawed, it wasn’t in legislative form. I’ve played in tax, look at my 2007 election contributions with my dear fonzie.

    I’ve talked to industry players about the assumptions they need to get the ‘we’ll all be ruined’ models and frankly they played you guys for absolute fools and won.

  23. [TSOP

    I am starting to have a panic attack. Ghost says primary vote for Labor is 36.]

    victoria. Think of it this way: it’s better to have the wake-up call with just over 3 weeks to go, allowing us enough time to change tact, then have the same epiphany in the last week.

  25. It is clear that the Gillard leadership is exhausted. Switch to Swan before it is too late.

    Labor leaders don’t last as long as they used to.

  26. Keep Calm and Carry On. That is all.
    Personally I think Labor should push the NBN more- it is a genuine point of difference and would benefit all Australians.

  28. If Tricky Dicky was PM, he’d be calling up the ASIO to urgently review their budget and suggest wiretapping every journos phones might make him nudge a bit more their way. Those leaks are killers.

  29. This is appearing in fairfax tomorrow? Bad news for gillard, shorten, howes and co. I think the Rudd issue will explode if he campaigns in other seats. Imagine then press pack at his pressers….he hasn’t talked yet about the night of the long knives.

  31. [Labor have had a bad week but it is surprising to see such a swing given this is after all the Seinfeld Election.]

    If Seinfeld were edited so we only got to see Newman’s lines then I’d agree.

  33. Well, Week 1 a win to Labor. Week 2 a win to the Coalition.

    Is Bluey going to talk to his octopus colleague Paul and make a prediction for Week 3?

  34. Does Swan have the numbers??

    Hope the leaker(s) are happy – as the late great Frank C would say “enjoy work choices mark 2!”

  39. Greensborough Growler

    It will be the end of one group of right wind nutters, I was really hoping the Liberal party would be first cab of the rank; Abbott for PM, what a mess.

  40. The government has failed as it has been struck down by cowardice. Since abandoning the ETS, everyone has been saying that the government stood for nothing – then the citizens assembly proves it.

    They acted properly in the GFC and then did nothing.

    It is an irony that a government (Rudd) so stuck on style was unable to keep the style up.

  42. [Is Bluey going to talk to his octopus colleague Paul and make a prediction for Week 3?]

    I will.

    *puts on objective hate*

    How the next week plays out will define the campaign. If Gillard can’t regain the momentum by next week, then we’re all moving to NZ! 😉

  44. BM, the stimulus prevented Australia from falling into a recession.

    Everybody was expecting negative growth. Unemployment was expected to fall to at least 7%.

    If it was Howard who implemented the stimulus, he would have been crowned king of all PM’s.

  46. Toff, we dont have the gender breakdown? It could be the swingers in general, or it could be a rogue, like their 47/53 pre-Gillard

  50. Centre -i agree re the stimulus package – it was great – it was successful.

    but the government couldn’t sell it

    Unfortunately the incompetence of garrett crueled it for them

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