Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Interesting. We had the confusion of a sudden change, and election called, the election closing in, Labor factional war of leaks…no wonder the public may be a bit confused.

    I reckon it is around ALP 51/49 which means a very tense election night unless Gillard can show that she is the equal or Rudd and show why she should be in the job.

  2. I’ll be honest, this week was damaging. The leak made the government look divided and disorientated. Gillard started looking tired.

    On the other hand, non-stop coverage of Abbott riding his bike and getting along with the locals made him look like a PM. We can’t have another week like this.

  4. GG

    [Diogs,

    Tell us about you experiences putting lipstick on a pig and why you would want to do it in the first place.

    We’ve got all night to indulge your fantasies.]

    They all involve Sarah Palin. 👿

    Actually I swear Bolt has a thing for her. He’s always drooling over her.

  6. Could I just say that unlike yesterday’s last scoop in the newspapers that the WW spread of Gillard will keep giving for Labor for the rest of the campaign.

  7. Pebbles, youre way overreacting. Abbott did NOTHING this week to look like PM material. Filleting a fish, kicking a footy?

  9. Allan.

    I agree with what you say.

    I was already experiencing anxiety this week because of the way in which the campaign was going, but this poll (assuming it is correct) has kind of let me a little stunned.

  11. @TSOP/52, yes., I’d have to agree with you there.

    It’s quiet annoying these factional groups especially, Are they standing for Labor? or are they standing up for who’s bloody left, center or bloody right?

  13. [Hey TP, the therapy worked! A reasonable post]

    If Gillard loses – Arbib, Shorten, Gillard etc should be expelled from the party for essentially destroying it, which will be the result, simply because she wanted to make a power grab before Rudd’s polls got better.

  14. GG, I swear I saw 3 women but the WW in the five minutes I was in line at Safeway. I heard from a newsagent that the Womans Day Gillard special sold out

  15. I think Adam to be consistent my dear comrade you’d need to knife Julia about now and replace her with someone. After all better to die fighting with [insert next choice] than to plow head long to destruction with Julia.

    That is if you are to be consistently terrified of a poll and unable to formulate any strategy other than ‘lets kill kevin now’.

    Dear dear me. Who’d have thought factional hacks could get it wrong, they did so well with Alan Carpenter in WA … oh wait he lost ….

  20. Maybe Jooles could run through the Doggies banner on the weekend?

    Glen – thats one of your better suggestions.

  21. [GG, I swear I saw 3 women but the WW in the five minutes I was in line at Safeway. I heard from a newsagent that the Womans Day Gillard special sold out]

    All snaffled up by the Liberal Party.

  23. GG

    I believe someone made a video… We should ask ru as he’ll know.

    Glen

    [Maybe Jooles could run through the Doggies banner on the weekend?]

    I thought Jooles said there was more chance of her playing full forward for the Doggies than of her challenging Rudd for the leadership. Now she’s gotta play.

  24. “ABC News 24 political editor Chris Uhlmann has revealed that upcoming Fairfax polling will bring challenging news for Labor, with the party falling across all measures. He says the poll shows Labor is down in the primary vote, down in the two-party preferred vote, and Julia Gillard’s personal standing is also down.

    Uhlmann says he understands the parties’ internal polling is showing the same thing.”

    Note the last line …..

  26. [Dear dear me. Who’d have thought factional hacks could get it wrong, they did so well with Alan Carpenter in WA … oh wait he lost ….]

    Oh dear, one loss in the last 6 years. Labor’s dead!

    Seriously. I don’t know what’s more annoying, one bad poll making the Right celebrate or the fact that it brings out the Green and Ruddbot vultures to feast…

  27. This poll is credible and highlights what a free run Abbott has beengetting. Labor needs to go negative on worstchoices and climate denial while going positive on economics education and health! If friends of the Liberals like Latham are allowed to spruik venomous nonsense then this type of poll result could hand Abbott a narrow win!

  29. I apologise I forgot it was the internal polling that was so clear and compelling only Andrew Bolt was shown it that was the cause of Kevin’s demise.

  33. The primary vote figures given seem to suggest more of
    50-50 tpp. This is a bit odd unless
    Green voters are suddenly switching
    to preference LNP

  36. Glen @ 62

    Please excuse my ignorance (and probably heresy) but who or what are the Doggies. Is it the Western Bulldogs to whom you refer? Although I’m none the wiser. What code do they play?

  37. You’d be perfectly thrilled with it if I used it in the context of a good poll for Labor.

    How on earth could it possibly be used in that context, when 55-45 is considered merely a solid start? Even people around here consider that to be break-even.

  39. Glen

    I don’t think a female has ever played AFL/VFL football but I could be wrong. It would be a pretty scary forward line with Barry and Julia staring you down.

  40. scott from melbourne

    you have made the statement that Labor is hopeless, and that Labor is a disgrace. Anything you wish to add to that?

  41. @DR Good/83, which seems odd since LNP won’t do anything on Climate Change or alike.

    I think this is more of a rogue poll, we will know in another 2 sets of polls.

  44. If this poll doesn’t show that it is time for the ALP to get passionate and loud about it’s achievements on the economy then nothing will. If they don’t they can look forward to 3yrs on the opposition benches reflecting on how good they were in getting Aust through the GFC. Stand up be counted you good for nothing fools you are letting an incompetent, racist, economic illiterate smash you into irrelevancy.

  45. [This is a bit odd unless
    Green voters are suddenly switching
    to preference LNP]

    If they are, and shit for brains wins, may it weigh on their pseudo-environmentalist, selfish minds for the rest of their miserable lives. May they well up in tears knowing that they are just as guilty for all the terror that Abbott will bring down on this nation. In case they forget, I will remind them.

    So let’s just hope that never eventuates.

  47. Allan

    Yes, the Doggies are the Western Bulldogs. Gillard is their No 1 supporter and said she would play full forward for them before she’d challenge Rudd about 3 months ago.

  48. Well, this will certainly concentrate a few minds in Labor, I would think. I just about had an adverse cardiac event and himself indoors had to be talked through a panic attack

  49. [The primary vote figures given seem to suggest more of
    50-50 tpp. This is a bit odd unless
    Green voters are suddenly switching
    to preference LNP]

    or the Howard Battlers switching sides again.

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