Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.

UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.

UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. BK/Gus

    Well, you know who is the #1 team…

    The Wallabies need to put on another ~8kg each to out muscle them at the World Cup. I will have a chat with their nutrition consultant about this

  2. People who are thrashing around looking to blame someone -anyone -for hurting their once glorious party, are reverting to one of those proverbial last refuges of the government scoundrel: ‘national security concerns’, when it’s really only about embarrassment.

    Perhaps we should have more of Sir Humphrey’s approach:

    Sir Humphrey: If there had been investigations, which there haven’t, or not necessarily, or I’m not at to say whether there have, there would have been a project team which, had it existed, on which I cannot comment, would now have been disbanded, if it had existed, and the members returned to their original departments, if indeed there had been any such members.

  3. #1598 Pebbles,

    Try LED lights, they are all the rage, last for yonks, produce almost no heat and are very enegy efficient.

  4. Musrum

    There are some lovely vintage cars around, I agree. What term would you use instead of MSM? I suppose with the explosion of websites etc the idea of a “main stream media” is becoming a bit dated. I’m thinking in terms of TV and hard-copy newspapers though.

  5. Sometime Thursday night I answered someone’s query about who was the SA ALP Right wing power broker who assisted in the demise of Rudd/rise of Gillard. As luck would have it, the Independent Weekly in Adelaide have done a story on him using the exact same language I did to describe him (which may show I should still be a journo or the journo who wrote it needs a holiday):

    http://www.independentweekly.com.au/news/local/news/general/the-godfather-of-unity/1899985.aspx

  6. [“I understand for members in the chattering classes of the Liberal Party that they might think what qualifies you to know about national security is you sit in a minister’s office typing press releases all of your lives, with the greatest risk to your personal safety being a paper cut.

    “But I do not.”]

    Question Time Julia returns! Like I said earlier: more like this please.

  8. [GOD HELP US!]

    It’s not US that I’m worried about. We here are big enough and ugly enough to take care of ourselves.

    It’s for coming generations that my heart breaks. The innocent unborn don’t deserve to inherit from US in this generation the dark, cold, greed-driven country the miserable Liberals plan to remake Australia to.

  9. [Try LED lights, they are all the rage, last for yonks, produce almost no heat and are very enegy efficient.]

    Thanks. Would one work in a touch lamp? (ie. a multiple brightness one)

  11. Allan Moyes@1604

    Musrum

    There are some lovely vintage cars around, I agree. What term would you use instead of MSM? I suppose with the explosion of websites etc the idea of a “main stream media” is becoming a bit dated. I’m thinking in terms of TV and hard-copy newspapers though.

    Vintage Media?

  12. [The Wallabies need to put on another ~8kg each to out muscle them at the World Cup. I will have a chat with their nutrition consultant about this]
    Laocoon

    Could Joe Hockey give them some advice?

  19. I’d like to know from any of the strident abusers who blame Oakes and Hartcher over the leaks to say whether or not they would have made the information public, if in their shoes.

  21. Are the Greens going to preference Rick Sarre against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, or not?

    This goes to the nub of the issue.

  22. [I’d like to know from any of the strident abusers who blame Oakes and Hartcher over the leaks to say whether or not they would have made the information public, if in their shoes.]

    Probably.

  26. If a credible source came to you and told you, on the record, that the Prime Minister had argued against a pension increase you’d be stupid not to run with it.

  27. [Are the Greens going to preference Rick Sarre against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, or not?]

    There is no deal to, but Green voters are very independent of HtV cards. I guess it would be a grueling choice, partly because if they preference Pyne, it’s one seat closer to an Abbott government. On the other hand, moderates like Pyne are what the Liberal party need to pull itself out of the neolithic era.

    I don’t presume to speak on their behalf though. I know whom I’d for, that’s it.

  28. [I’d like to know from any of the strident abusers who blame Oakes and Hartcher over the leaks to say whether or not they would have made the information public, if in their shoes.]
    No! The leaks are not relevant enough to warrant it.

  29. Cuppa, do you know what breaks my heart!

    The GDP figures in the US that were released last night were a little better than expected. Hence, Wall Street finished relatively flat.

    This means that the globe is on track to recovery and we will face great prosperity in the next decade.

    Instead of that prosperity being rightfully shared by all Australian’s, it will go to the priviledged few.

    We will still have poverty, shit hospitals, and the best education for the likes of GP going to Kings school.

  31. Mind you, I don’t blame Oakes. I’m annoyed. But if he has a genuine leaker informing him, he’d be remiss in his duties as a journalist not to report it…

  32. Just say the FF TV ad.

    At least it is inoffensive.

    Three middle aged ladies saying they don’t like politicians but will vote FF because they stick up for the little people.

    I got the feeling the budget was somewhat limited.

  34. [If a credible source came to you and told you, on the record, that the Prime Minister had argued against a pension increase you’d be stupid not to run with it.]
    If a scheme had not been implemented, then yes, I would see the relevance. Alas, the scheme was legislated & the pensioners received their payrise.
    That makes all the chatter just vindictive gossip.

  35. [Just say the FF TV ad.]

    It’s nice to see Bob running for the Senate. That will show those nasty Libs for not nominating him for Mayo! 😆

  37. [moderates like Pyne are what the Liberal party need to pull itself out of the neolithic era.]

    Bad enough that the stinkers are even IN the neolithic era themselves. But it’s worse: they are determined to drag the whole bloody country down to their unedified level. Small-minded, fearful, superstitious, greedy, cold, backward-focused, jingoistic …

  39. Bk
    [Could Joe Hockey give them some advice?]
    certainly not…I think he would have a conniption if I suggested a pie diet…when I first saw him, he issues an expletive that would not pass William’s guidelines, when I merely mentioned I had a turkish bread sandwich for lunch!

  41. Allan Moyes @ 1581,

    [Scorpio @ 1571

    I for one don’t understand Oakes’s motives here. ]

    One thing we “do” know and that is that Laurie Oakes has sure got the spotlight turned on himself with his last two or three articles.

    Maybe that is the sole motivation. A fading “star” in a dying industry, letting everyone know that “he” is still a force to be reckoned with and demands respect from both the political operatives and his fellow travellers in the media.

  43. Bob Day has spent buckets of corflutes. He’s probably only second to Ms Ellis in number from where I’ve been.

    And this is hilarious

    [Earlier in the day the prime minister shared coffee and toast with a local family at a Perth cafe.

    Ms Gillard finished her latte with Stuart and Avril Willcox and their three girls before handling a question from a passerby on aged care.]

    Gillard is a latte-sipper! Socrates, jv, fredn etc and me are off the hook. We’ve found the culprit.

  45. [From looking at Fieldings record it’s impossible to tell exactly who Family First stand up for.]
    The evidence would indicate that he stands for the conservatives on most occasions.

  47. Dee, no!

    Have another look at post 1593.

    If Abbott gets to 2.25 – it’s all over red rover.

    At the moment it is God Help Us!

    Maybe we can get St.Gus to organise a church service for all we labor bludgers 😆

  48. To Speak of Pebbles@1631

    Mind you, I don’t blame Oakes. I’m annoyed. But if he has a genuine leaker informing him, he’d be remiss in his duties as a journalist not to report it…

    Yes, I can’t see how they (don’t forget Hartcher) had any choice at all. It isn’t as if the information was trivia. It was information about decisions at the centre of government.

    Dee@1628

    No! The leaks are not relevant enough to warrant it.

    Not relevant to what? The strategy of a PM and a challenger leading up to the knifing of that PM? The views of ministers in discussions before cabinet decisions?

    Matters of some public interest I would have thought.

    So, you would have left it to another journo to publish? Wouldn’t go into journalism if I were you – you could struggle. 😆

  49. [Maybe we can get St.Gus to organise a church service for all we labor bludgers]

    Plane tickets out of here more like it… 😆

  50. I think the media concentration laws need to be looked at as well……… each individual markets concentration in say tv, radio, newspapers and magazines, on line presence etc
    I would consider each capital city a market as well as Australia as a whole and have strong laws against collusion

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