Courtesy of the always reliable GhostWhoVotes, we are informed of a bombshell Nielsen poll which puts the Coalition at an election-winning 52-48 lead, from primary votes of 45 per cent for the Coalition, 36 per cent for Labor and 12 per cent for the Greens. More to follow.
UPDATE: Michelle Grattan reports “the gender gap on voting intention has disappeared, with primary and two-party-preferred votes now little different” – which frankly doesn’t seem likely. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and her disapproval up six to 39 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up six points on approval to 49 per cent and disapproval down six to 45 per cent. Gillard’s lead on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-34 to 49-41. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1356.
UPDATE 2: Possum has full demographic tables here. Not that it should offer Labor too much comfort, but the size of their slump among women (58-42 to 49-51) and in NSW (59-41 to 42-58) looks overcooked.
I’m definitely in an anti-MSM frame of mind, or at least I view current media practice as actively toxic to the functioning of our democracy.
In that mindset of ‘how should journalists carry out their jobs so that democracy is improved’ I don’t think Oakes should have gone with the leak story. It is not news that there is discussion and dissent in cabinet discussions. The whole notion of the confidentiality of such discussions is entirely so that everyone in those discussions can feel free to speak without fear of having their words misinterpreted or thrown back at them out of context, as has happened in this case.
The only possible excuse for publishing the leaks was that it somehow went to the character of JG that she was in some way being hypocritical. I’d argue that’s too much of a stretch to justify it – the measures were passed and were part of the Labor party’s actions in their first term. It’s JG’s job to sell the accomplishments of the labor party, whether she outright supported them or opposed them. And that’s taking the ‘she opposed’ at blind face value, which is unwise anyway. I’m more than happy with her response that she was questioning whether the pension rise and PPL were affordable, and whether they were the highest priority use of government funds.
[Late Mail from the Betting Markets:
If you think the markets can be interpreted by averaging the odds offered by a certain number of betting agencies over a certain period of time – FORGET IT! That is not the way to interpret markets.
OK let’s get to business and have a real good look at the betting affairs as at 31/7/10, as it stands.
1. The last time Rudd was leader before there were any moves to replace him the betting was: ALP 1.50 / LNP 2.50.
2. When Gillard became leader the betting was: ALP 1.30 / LNP 3.00.
3. According to my analysis of the market and given the political circumstances at the time I assessed the critical support lines at 1.45 for Gillard and 2.75 for Abbott.
4. I concluded that if Julia remained less than 1.45 she would win. And I concluded that if Abbott firmed below 2.75, it was “god help us”.
5. Then Julia firmed into 1.25, Abbott eased out to 4.00, and things were looking good.
6. The real market as it stands now is: ALP 1.54 / LNP 2.52.
7. GOD HELP US!
8. Abbott does NOT need to become the favourite on the betting to win the election.
9. If Abbott firms to 2.25 before the election, he will become the next Prime Minister]
Centre – I appreciate the good work you do for us bloggers providing that information on the markets, but I do not agree with your conclusion.
As a long time punter myself I can assure you that whatever the odds, you can never state with certainty that a particular horse – or political party – will win.
The most you can say is there is a high probability that it will -. but it can still lose. Plenty of plunges come unstuck and there is nothing magical about odds of $2.25..
I agree that I’d publish the story but I wouldn’t do it as a ‘shock’ piece and would seek comment from the person the story would damage and run that comment alongside the story.
Centre
ive already delivered the sermon
The battlelines were drawn last night!
If journalists want to be political players, then they should run for office.
Darn, you will see! 😉
I’m certainly hoping that Frank is right and Labor finish strongly with what they may have in mind because the Coalition have as at now moved into a very real chance of winning.
Diogenes@1643
😆
I love that. Inner-city Perth was it? Are there any intellectuals or academics in that family? Maybe Gillard has finally understood those mongrel intellectual academic latte-sipping elites are correct after all.
Although she did use the term ‘chattering classes’ or something similar this morning. Mixed messages.
jv
[So, you would have left it to another journo to publish? Wouldn’t go into journalism if I were you – you could struggle.]
I’ll take that as a compliment.
[It isn’t as if the information was trivia. It was information about decisions at the centre of government.]
LOL
jv, you are also in danger of going blind.
Questions get asked in Cabinet before a decision on a major expenditure decision is made. How shocking.
ltep
From memory, they did ask Gillard for comment but her spokesman said no comment due to cabinet confidentiality.
Dee@1658
You should too. 😆
I’ll just let you guys know that if Abbott wins and Truthy gets unbanned, I am out of here. Sorry, but having to listen to that arrogant prick gloat about how he and his toothless siblings/wives were right will be too much to bear…
[From looking at Fieldings record it’s impossible to tell exactly who Family First stand up for.]
Teh Liberal party.
[The All Blacks scrum has just excavated the surface of Docklands stadium.]
I’ve seen more flat ploughed fields
Ch7 guy says “still a chance”
LOL
Timmy said it
*facepalm*
[Ch7 guy says “still a chance”
LOL]
Ch7 of all networks? 😮
They’re mindfudging us! (Forgive the bowdlerisation – blog rules and all that)
Abbott rorted his travel allowance. Why hasn’t THAT been The Story of the campaign?
Gus
Ch7 in Adelaide said that Labor strategists had said they were not panicking but would change the game-plan. I assume that means going after Abbott but they didn’t say.
[Abbott rorted his travel allowance. Why hasn’t THAT been The Story of the campaign?]
Because it was dumped when the media had bigger fish to fry.
[Questions get asked in Cabinet before a decision on a major expenditure decision is made. How shocking.]
I know! Scandal! Corruption! Expose them!
What an absolute joke. Public interest? I don’t think so, JV. You’re having a laugh.
Probably because it was within the guidelines Cuppa. The problem are the guidelines which should be tightened.
Shouldn’t Gillard or other senior ministers be winging their way to Brisbane, and visiting Rudd in the hospital?
My suggestion: once Rudd has had a good rest, unleash him on the rest of the campaign – he’ll be now much fitter and ready to let rip on Abbot! 🙂
If Julia doesn’t make good use of his talents, she’s a fool. 😉
Just to put the Coalition price of 2.52 into perspective, Abbott is now considered to have a MUCH stronger chance of winning than Beazley 98 & 01 and Latham 07 at the corresponding period of the campaign.
[Ch7 in Adelaide said that Labor strategists had said they were not panicking but would change the game-plan. I assume that means going after Abbott but they didn’t say.]
Hopefully that means more of Real Julia.
ltep,
[From looking at Fieldings record it’s impossible to tell exactly who Family First stand up for. ]
I think it’s sitting between two rocks and a hard place, from memory! 😉
Evan surely that would look very contrived. I’m sure Rudd will have a larger presence in the campaign from now on.
Darn
Thank you for that. You beat me to it. With due respect to the blogger; utter nonsense. I for one will not be throwing in the towell once the price gets to $2.25. I am not sure if you could bet on elections in 1993 (can’t remember) but I would imagine you would not have got more than 3.50 for Keating to win goling into the last week and he did. Elections are won and lost by many things; bettings plunges ain’t one of them.
As for the Oakes issue, I believe every word uttered by Julia in that conference. She is a woman of substance and principal. However, mud sticks. It was an allegation, not aleak and I wish to God it ws reported that way. I could go to a journo and say that some politician hang out with mafia figures even when I know that not to be true. The allegation then gets put out by a journo and no matter how that person denies it it haunts him forever. It is not fair and too many journalists get away with this stuff by conveniently citing protection of sources. What about the protection of people’s repuations? The job that the Daily telegraph did on Julia on Thursday was one of the greatest smears I have seen in Australian politics and there is nothing she can do about it.
I wonder if JG realised Finns would be o/s for most of the campaign
that is the real story
[Abbott rorted his travel allowance. Why hasn’t THAT been The Story of the campaign?]
You have got to be kidding? The media can’t report that. It is a fact. Much better to report salacious gossip.
[Just to put the Coalition price of 2.52 into perspective, Abbott is now considered to have a MUCH stronger chance of winning than Beazley 98 & 01 and Latham 07 at the corresponding period of the campaign.]
OK, we get it, we are at the critical level.
No offense there, Centre. I always appreciate your insight, but ringing the alarms at this time of night serves no-one. 🙂
I missed a fair bit of the discussion at the time when draw for position on ballot paper occurred so some of this may be old hat. Looking at the draw in all seats with about a 5% or less margin according to Antony Green adjusted pendulum shows the following in comparing 2010 draw with 2007.
Seats Labor had the donkey vote benefit in 2007 and retains it in 2010
NSW McArthur, Eden-Monaro, Page,
Victoria –
Qld Petrie, Longman, Hinkler, Fairfax, Fisher
WA Canning, Stirling
SA Boothby, Sturt
Tas –
NT Solomon
Seats where Lib, National, LNP had the donkey vote in 2007 and retains it in 2010
NSW Hughes
Vic La Trobe
Qld Dickson, Dawson, (Wright 2010)
WA –
SA Hindmarsh, Kingston
Tas Braddon, Franklin
Greens had/have donkey vote over labor in Melbourne in 2007 and 2010
The flipped seats.
Seats Labor had the donkey vote benefit in 2007 flipped to Coalition in 2010
NSW Dobell, Wentworth
Vic Corangamite, Deakin
Qld Bonner, Flynn, Forde, Leichardt
WA Hasluck
SA –
Tas Bass
Seats Coalition had the donkey vote benefit in 2007 flipped to Labor in 2010
NSW Bennelong, Calare, Cowper, Gilmore, Macquarie, Robertson
Vic Aston, Dunkley, McEwen, McMillan
Qld Bowman, Brisbane, Herbert, Ryan,
WA Cowan, Swan
SA Grey
Tas –
So of the 50 seats Labor has 13/9 advantage where donkey votes same as last time (which is 0.5% or a bit more advantage compared with opinion poll position) and 17/10 advantage where the donkey vote has flipped (which is 1.0% or a bit more advantage compared with opinion poll position). Plus/minus Melbourne.
Thats a very big luck of the draw outcome for Labor in a close election.
It’s a Grand Old Flag once again. Melbourne has now beaten Sydney and Brisbane in successive weeks. Where does our glorious leader come from? I take this as a good omen.
TSOP
Centre is hilighting what is called the confidence or floor level
there is no emotion behind the 2.25
just pure algorithms
I’m not surprised Mark Latham had poor odds to win the 2007 election. Who was he leading? The Bitter Former Leaders Party?
I want to know what people like Oakes are going to say 18 months from now when we are in a deep recession because those idiots Hockey/Robb and of course Abbott get hold of the purse-strings.
Such incompetence is unbelievable.
It was interesting — that big US economist when interviewed by Red Kerry said what is worse waste — all those who would now be unemployed if the govt hadn’t done the insulation and School buildings, or the financial losses over those programs (such as they might be).? He said firmly — the loss of jobs would be the far bigger waste.
And yet people are still seduced by idiots like Hockey & Robb.
Centre
[Just to put the Coalition price of 2.52 into perspective, Abbott is now considered to have a MUCH stronger chance of winning than Beazley 98 & 01 and Latham 07 at the corresponding period of the campaign.]
That is so depressing. I think I’ll call it a night before you convince me to slash my wrists.
[My suggestion: once Rudd has had a good rest, unleash him on the rest of the campaign – he’ll be now much fitter and ready to let rip on Abbot! 🙂
If Julia doesn’t make good use of his talents, she’s a fool. ;)]
So, how is Rudd going to improve Labor’s chances when he was in negative satisfaction territory when he lost PM?
Questions get asked in Cabinet before a decision on a major expenditure decision is made. How shocking.
Come on – by definition it was information of interest to the public given the reaction.
The point is, if Oakes and Hartcher didn’t publish it someone else would have. Once it is leaked, it is leaked,. Blaming the journo who receives the information from an impeccable source is ludicrous. It’s their job.
Definition of journalist (n), red-hot information = publish in journal
Leave them alone, they are mere conduits. Worry about the leaker/s if you want to allocate blame.
[So, how is Rudd going to improve Labor’s chances when he was in negative satisfaction territory when he lost PM?]
Easy. The coalition has been generating sympathy for him in a big way. Again Labor should beat them at heir own game (and give them what they asked for).
Jenauthor it is not the journalists’ role to hold back on stories because of their own political views.
[I’m certainly hoping that Frank is right and Labor finish strongly with what they may have in mind because the Coalition have as at now moved into a very real chance of winning]
I agree – I rate them about even money each of two.
All this mis-directed anger at journalists. Very few are interested in discussing what should now be done by Labor to fix the problem and keep the archbishop out of politics, going forward.
Rudd should do a few token stops with Gillard once well and then retire gracefully after the election and spend some time with his family. And sleep.
This will have put things into perspective for him and I think his workaholic days will be behind him.
[by definition it was information of interest to the public given the reaction.]
Jaundiced, out of interest do you think the Rann/Chantelois story was in the public interest? I don’t think just because a story has the potential to shock it should be run.
dee
[ I rate them about even money each of two.]
????
then why panic about 2.25
Its when the fibs are 1.50 that its red button time
[once Rudd has had a good rest, unleash him on the rest of the campaign – he’ll be now much fitter and ready to let rip on Abbot!]
*with asperity* If Rudd was popular he’d still be PM. It was Rudd’s talent for pissing people off that created this situation in the first place. Perhaps we should let Latham loose on the marginals as well?
1651
Jackol
Well said
I certainly would like to think that there would be more than one in cabinet playing devils advocate.
Then for a bloviator like Oakes to carry on with such trivia confirms that he had no intentions of being an honest Journo he was intent on destroying the democraticaly elected government.
If he reckons he is such a big deal he would have told the leaker that his info was trivia, go away and come back with something with a bit of substance.
It is pretty hard to argue with Jaundiced view when he was on the bridge of the Melbourne and didn’t save the Voyager, and he also knows what exactly transpired at a Cabinet meeting.
He sure gets around, he reminds me of the bloke who had that many jobs he should be 110 years old.
He comes across as someone who if you tell him you had a black dog he would have a blacker one.
Darren Laver,
[If journalists want to be political players, then they should run for office. ]
It’s funny you should say that (especially that it’s true) and a number of them have done exactly that.
Unfortunately, very few of them have demonstrated much ability at it. Maybe Carr, Carpenter but not many.
Psephos – Today our great leader was showing off her handballing skills. Nearly as bad as a Scotty Lucus handball 😉