Crikey is running a tipping competition in which participants are asked to pick winners in 20 selected marginal seats (and also nominate the precise margin in Bowman as a tie-breaker). Not only is there a $5000 prize on offer, it also gives us a chance to measure the collective wisdom in these matters of the Crikey readership. It also means you get a first glimpse of my much-delayed election guide, with entries now available for the 20 seats in question. The whole thing will follow in reasonably short order (promise).
In other news, The Australian have provided us with attitudinal polling from the latest Newspoll. This finds “leadership” and industrial relations have increased in salience as importance issues since February; that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures, while Labor is streets ahead on health, education and industrial relations. It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.
57 yes
43 no
noticed this these mean nothing really straw polls wil how you vote after leak affect your vote wtte there was a morgan add there on the sunrise site
In the article linked to in marktwains post above it appears Michael Johnson is still labouring under and assumption he will or might finish above the LNP candidate.
Anti Abbot ads should be easy too – Preface them with his gospel truth comments and then
just quote him:
No new taxes – 4 weeks later new tax on business.
PPL over my dead body – PPL proposed.
Climate change is crap – climate change isn’t crap.
Economics is a bore.
Workchoices was good , the marketing was bad – workchoices is DB & C.
Finish with “he’ll say anything to get elected but we know what he really believes! (sinister music; darkened photos)
“Glen-Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
All hypothetical of course but CLASSIC Tv 😀
I want to see the live cross to Griffiths with Kevin Rudd after Gillard loses her majority.
How are you feeling tonight Kevin?”
just as classic in reverse when we watch Friar Abbott do the same or any pollie in the same position. It’s a blood sport and we are all but voyeurs to the spectacle. Howie conceding to Maxine was exactly the same. We all love to watch
I have a longrunning under/over bet with a Lib insider every election. The ALP seat mark was 79 in 2007, so kicked his ass… but this time around its been set at 85.
I was outspokenly confident until the debate – less worried about that in the 3 days ff (v tragic to recalibrate daily!)… but Qld worries me. At present, have now reverted to cautiously optimistic.
Interestingly, he also echoes the “Lib people horrified by Abbott” sentiment, yet is expressing more confidence than me.
Some time ago, I think it was Finns who postulated the long-run ALP battle was going to be between Shorten and someone else (this Rudd-Gilliard thing being temporary) – can anyone remember who it was…. Combet?
So it’s polling by betting agencies now.
in the know, in every election i remember during the campaign its always a lineball result expected then after the wash up after election days its like yeah this was always going to happen as this polling/commentary was just in the end all bulls****
[A mate reckons he has heard its 52-48 to ALP in tomorrow’s morgan]
taking house bias into account, a 52-48 from Morgan could mean reality is 49-51.
O what fun this week has been
i think these things they say are really for rating to watch there show
we had the oakes to watch their show now the polls to watch their
show watch neither.,
cannot stand morning breakfast shows gigiglle giggle
perhaps i am just not a morning person.
I like to wake up to peace and quite
i hope the day comes when they disappear i am like the grumpy old lady the show with the same name on British tv
Expat I think you will lose your money this time 😉
From ltep’s link at 2175:
[Although the seat was won by the ALP by only a small margin at the 2007 election, since then the ALP has enjoyed a strong level of support in Solomon, averaging a two party preferred vote of 59% to the Coalition’s 41%.]
Wow. Did any of us know about this before now?
My say I cant watch Sunrise or Today either.
i wonder what they earn for sitting there every morning
It really does depress me how Robb and his ilk get away with the codswallop they spout. Hockey is another one.
Let’s face it, the Libs campaign better than Labor does. They put the boot in and keep kicking. No wild claim is feral enough for them. No crapola about how Labor has ruined the country is too ridiculous.
The thing is, they’ve got people believing them. If you didn’t lose your job, it’s only a small step to convincing yourself that (because you’re special) you never would have, and only a further small step to convincing yourself that no-one else was ever going to lose their, either. It’s the same for small business. I’ve lost count of the number of “entrpreneurial” small-business types who think they survived by dint of their excellence and skill at their particular callings, not because of the government’s stimulus package.
When you ask them if they got any, say, BER work, they all deny they did. When you ask them whether any of their competitors got it – thus leaving room for themselves to remain competitive – they all say no. I had a builder at my place today who told me that only the big firms got BER work. But he has never thought that position through. If the big boys were out of the competition game, doing BER work, that meant he could stay in business doing the smaller jobs. Otherwise they’d have swallowed him up without even knowing they done it. When I explained this to him, he just looked confused and shook his head. You could tell he thought the very idea of the stimulus was a crock. He survived because he’s a good worker. That’s all he knows.
Australia is full of these little guys who are convinced that anyone who goes broke or can’t meet his bills is a bludger who doesn’t deserve to be in business. Howard virtually forced them to get an ABN number and register for the GST. He turned thousands of natural Labor voters into micro businesses. They have 2GB on permanently in their utes. All they ever hear is the shock-jock version of reality.
Abbott and Hockey and Robb tell them they can have it all and pay less tax, that Labor has sent the country broke, that the BER is a debacle and they believe it because that’s all they ever hear, from dawn when they pick up the Daily Tele or the Herald Sun, to dusk when they turn on to Today-Tonight. Even if they watch the ABC they get the same schlok, only slightly more refined, and as often as not, just as raw as any right wing radio station.
They resent Asians and hate Muslims, especially ones who come here uninvited. The don’t think for themselves. This is what Labor is up against.
Unless Labor stands up for itself and starts to kick a few heads they’re going to lose this election. They have to play just a dirty as the Coalition does. They have to start bragging and braying about how wonderful they are. Intellectual arguments won’t get them anywhere. Not mention “debt” or “PPL” won’t cut it. They have to fight and fight hard or else Abbott will win the unwinnable election by default.
Damn the Leaker, and damn the advisers who are offering “do nothing” advice. bland isn’t enough. Don’t frighten the horses is a wimp out. Labor has to stand up for what it believes in and fight or its thank you linesmen, thank you ballboys.
jaundiced view,
Unfortunately I think you are right.
We might get Abbott going to the right on a few things (as the Labor faithful maintain).
But I think that if Abbott wins, Labor will start to lobby for things to be more progressive. And so it is even possible that just as Rudd and Gillard have gone to the right to wedge out the coalition, if Abbott is in power he might move to the progressive side a bit to wedge out Labor.
In hindsight I feel certain that if Howard had won the last election that Australia would now have an ETS in place which would have been much better than the CPRS.
For me there are probably more things that I will be upset about that are common with Labor and Liberal than I’ll get upset about that only Abbott would do.
Scott – exactly. Why should anyone get concerned about Morgan? This was the mob that had the coalition in front 51-49 five days after Julia got the job and every other poll was the exact opposite. I do think we slipped between the climate change policy and the debate, hence the poor newspoll result for Julia. And I reckon the next newspoll and neilsen will be 51-49 or 50/50. But I still think that the in the last two weeks people will drift back to the government – they mostly always do. I woud actually like to see Julia take on Abbott in another debate and just unleash on him: similar to what Keating did to Hewson in 1993.
I am not worried at all about our chances – we will win and win well.
LTEP – hmmm. On re-districting, that’s a net loss of I think 3 seats or so.
I think I bet using my “anything worse would be a disgrace” hat.
It would be a disgrace, but maybe Jules will take the kick-in-the-pants in the appropriate spirit going forwards
[taking house bias into account, a 52-48 from Morgan could mean reality is 49-51.]
With morgan you can make it anything you want Squigg, it will be just as accurate.
So what is the opinion of PBer’s on media ownership and the role of the ABC in light of what we are currently being dished up?
I wouldn’t take too much notice of that itsthevibe. I think they’ve added together everyone polled in that seat since December 2007 which would make the results not particularly meningful.
[Expat I think you will lose your money this time ]
well lets hope he wins heaps
every morning here is o dear by mid day its gee this good but night time
is o dear again
lets see if the poll for morgan is as you say above a couple in and out we still in front.
its all good advertising for their show so dont watch it.
I just want to know two things and I need PB’s to help.
1. Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey like to talk about Labors debt, because of the stimulus. The first stimulus was $10.4B in which the Liberals and Nats voted for and for the second they were talking about a figure of $20b-$25B by way of tax cuts.
My question is would the Liberals and Nats be also responsible for the deficit and debt, because they voted for it?? Why isn’t Jools and Swan fighting for their record on the economy.
2. I can’t remember, must get some sleep and too tired to rewrite the above.
Cheers
[Unless Labor stands up for itself and starts to kick a few heads they’re going to lose this election.]
Hang in there BB.
Like Frank said – the big guns are yet to fire.
Scotty J
you misunderstand I agree with your earlier post , my Q was only re difficulty in getting that message’ across given tabloid type press
Itep
polls i suggested were done abit earlier , 3 weeks approx 3 wk of June but we had none since north of Brissie , and Scorp info since is not happyness news
in all honesty politics is just a cycle and pretty prediticable !, tonight my sister in law asked me which party is gillard from ? lol she is 22
So is Warren Truss still alive and kicking?
From a pure political gameplay point of view, Rudd should have called an ETS DD as soon as poss after Turnbull got knifed. He would have been returned with 90 seats, I think – and most likely would still be PM today.
The only person with more tactical regret I can think of is Costello… what a muku!
[With morgan you can make it anything you want Squigg, it will be just as accurate.]
Gary – are you still here? Hasn’t this campaign exhausted you yet?
All in all, I’d prefer to go skiing!!
well i suppose gradually the board will all go as their time runs out that s the same as all organizations i suppose.
tomorrow i am having a fee pb day and no media
nite all i am going to keep to my plege why not see how we all go and then we may be pleasantly surprised in a day or two.
turn off computer lock door hide key no pb tomorrow
When is Warren going to get on a skateboard like Mark Vaile 😀 ???
GAry go skiing spend the kid inheritance as they say.
wish we had a crystal ball would like to sleep till the 22nd aug
nite again
Jon #2444
I suggested that last night and I have never voted Labor.
By the way – where’s Ruddock, Bronwyn and Andrews?
There’s an election soon. Why are they not out and about?
Mmmmm…
2473 Glen
That was my second question. Where is the possible future Deputy PM?? Why is he in hiding and not on the hustings. If may be asked to take over when Budgies is out of the country, how do we know he won’t stuff up.
[Gary – are you still here? Hasn’t this campaign exhausted you yet?]
Nah, it’s a bit of fun. So what time do you leave to go skiing tomorrow?
[In hindsight I feel certain that if Howard had won the last election that Australia would now have an ETS in place which would have been much better than the CPRS.]
Of course we would. After all Bob said that the Liberals out-green the Greens.
[if Abbott is in power he might move to the progressive side]
You’re DELUSIONAL.
TP will be happy and will tell you Cuppa “I told u so” lol!
Crashing – bed.
BB, naah you’re too pessimistic. ALP won’t lose, but the question is whether they have 75 seats or 90… and on that score, to date, their campaign has sucked balls – so I agree wholeheartedly in spirit but not worst case scenario.
To think just a short time ago (58-42 days), this was going to be the Wrannslide / Carrslide.
I also do not think Gilliard as leader is going to deliver a better result that Rudd would have when it came to the crunch and people really had to pull the lever for Abbott.
In all honesty and as a Greens voter Michael… What an absolute load pf rubbish.
JV
If you really believe there is no difference then you are a either naive beyond description or suffering a neuronal deficit.
[ In one sense ‘knowing your enemy’ is better than having a two-faced right-wing ‘labour’ party in power. ]
Well go hand out lib how to vote card if in your judgement it works out better for you, as you seem to be indicating is the case.
[ Jaundiced – showing or affected by prejudice or envy or distaste ]
True that, sanctimonious as well?
THANKGOD FOR SEN IN MELBOURNE
My last reflection is to echo what someone else said some weeks ago… that this election (as it stands at the moment) is what the 2013 result should have been, and will reduce the ‘natural’ period of ALP governance expected post-2007 by 1 term
ltep, which bit is rubbish, and why?
[TP will be happy and will tell you Cuppa “I told u so” lol!]
You may well be right, Glen, but as I now regretfully scroll past Thomas’s posts* it would fall on deaf ears anyway.
__
*I used to read TP’s posts with interest, and learned a lot from them, but the sour grapes routine leaves me cold.
ltep
Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 11:39 pm | Permalink
“In all honesty and as a Greens voter Michael (MWH) … What an absolute load pf rubbish”
well Itep , you saved me alot of rebut words Think i’ll copy paste yours for future for MTW and j/v , assume no patent tho
Yes things will get a little mad here on election day/night.
You’ll have to do without me two as I will be away volunteering.
volunteering not politically that is for a better purpose 🙂
[ if Abbott is in power he might move to the progressive side a bit to wedge out Labor. ]
Are you for real MWH? as in is this a serious, considered view of yours? That Abbott will become progressive and Howard would have implemented a more overarching climate policy than Labor?
So we have both JV and MWH advocating for an Abbott led ultra conservative government. Good to see their true colours at last.