Crikey is running a tipping competition in which participants are asked to pick winners in 20 selected marginal seats (and also nominate the precise margin in Bowman as a tie-breaker). Not only is there a $5000 prize on offer, it also gives us a chance to measure the collective wisdom in these matters of the Crikey readership. It also means you get a first glimpse of my much-delayed election guide, with entries now available for the 20 seats in question. The whole thing will follow in reasonably short order (promise).
In other news, The Australian have provided us with attitudinal polling from the latest Newspoll. This finds “leadership” and industrial relations have increased in salience as importance issues since February; that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures, while Labor is streets ahead on health, education and industrial relations. It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.
Sorry but because of the erratic nature of the Morgan polls now I find it hard to take them seriously. I’ll only give them credence when they match with all of the other polls taken at the same time. By match I mean within a bull’s roar of them.
drake
Are you going to ask that question every evening?
at the end of the day swining voters are still disconnected from the plotical proces at this stage !
drake
hopefully when one wakes up
Tom Hawkins,
[What are you on about ffs?]
Comments directed to my just like that one!
I’m out of here, which it seems will please you no end.
Scorpio, so far the only published seat polling of Qld marginals has shown Labor retaining all of them. This doesn’t tally with the whispers about internal polling so it’ll be interesting to see more. As much as we all value your personal insight and intelligence, this site is focused on polls.
[Nothing Glen. It really will not be the end of the world.]
Well it will be 2012 during the first term of an Abbot Prime Ministership.
Noo Frank
I will be advocating a bloodless coup by the Hon Bruce Billson MP 😀
[ I believe it ]
Just what is the point of you jv? All your posts are the same with the words rearranged in a slightly different order. Are you truthy’s mirror image?
[Unofficial NewsFeed 7NewsFanPage
Greens preference Labor in tight seats (AAP): The Greens have confirmed they will preference Labor in almost all o… http://bit.ly/bN36nv half a minute ago via twitterfeed ]
Scotty J
Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 10:48 pm | Permalink
“Labor has really dropped the ball on defending its economic record”
yes
but isnot issue same as one of combating th Julia anti PPL and Julia anti pension rise spin for her simple Q’s in cabinet of what fwd costs How does one combat , what forum Scotty J
[drake
Are you going to ask that question every evening?]
Tom,
I’ve never asked it before.
It is a very fair point to say that the government has been terrible at selling the amazing job it did during the GFC.. but honestly most people had very little impact on them (accept for the positive effect of lower interest rates) so it is a non story for “working families”….. now if you were in my business and saw half the competition evaporate, clients lay off a 20%+ of their employees and your turnover drop by 80% (which ours did) you would appreciate that it is an amazing thing we got out as untouched as we did (my industry excluded which frankly is always hard hit)…. that is not even raising the issue of massive property market collapses and 10% unemployment… Joe bloggs on the street just does not get how close to the edge everything got globally and sadly we will find, like with Keating’s reforms, that people will look back with admiration, but it won’t save them now and it probably won’t get them traction
Gillard went a long way with her “economically responsible” credentials today. A great counterpunch to the reckless jibes from the opposition
Tom the only PM better than Howie was Menzies 😀 !
[Unofficial NewsFeed 7NewsFanPage
Greens preference Labor in tight seats (AAP): The Greens have confirmed they will preference Labor in almost all o… http://bit.ly/bN36nv half a minute ago via twitterfeed]
IF that is correct Frank the Greens must be shite scared of Abbott getting in.
Can anyone explain what scorpio wants people here to do about the state of federal Labor in QLD?
[IF that is correct Frank the Greens must be shite scared of Abbott getting in.]
What’s the difference for them I mean the Greens get nothing done anyway?
drake
Good. Once is enough.
ltep
Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
“Scorpio, so far the only published seat polling of Qld marginals has shown Labor retaining all of them.”
you talking Brissie Itep and you rite there , although not all Brissie worry seats
Earlier one abit ealier n marginal north showed labor losing there 3 out of 3 , where Scorp is
“Glen
Posted Wednesday, July 28, 2010 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
Tom the only PM better than Howie was Menzies ”
“Pig Iron Bob”, My Uncles who fought against his recycling of iron ore were always in his awe
2411
Longer serving does not mean better. Menzies nearly lost in 1961 and that would have meant only 12 years (plus his short time in 1939 & 41) in office. Menzies last 2 terms brought to you by the letters D, L & P.
I will say I like John Curtin too.
I also like J.A Lyons.
Yes Ron but that was a much older set of polling. At around that time Labor was also behind in the Brisbane seats.
Yeah, sooner the later the economic record ads have to come out, and then it’ll all over red rover.
Here we go: “Averted the GFC, no recession, only country in world except Poland or some shit, lower interest rates than Howard, record employment growth”, yada yada.
Admittedly not showing Kev’s head will be tough in the “team GFC” happy snaps, but let’s get this over and done with, shall we?
Abbott was never beating any ALP leader. Stop talking crap like the citizen’s climate be-in and unidirectional movement – go for the money shots and wrap this baby up. I’m bored.
Sleep awaits
[What’s the difference for them I mean the Greens get nothing done anyway?]
Glen, if you were a Green, IF Glen keep reading, who would you rather have to deal with to tackle CC, someone who says they believe in a carbon tax or someone who says no way?
Tom,
Take a break. You’re reactive. Provocative. Bullish.
Another rumour: other QLD MPs are being banned from talking to Rudd or asking him to help out their campaigns in marginal seats.
Gillard HQ wants to keep Rudd confined to Griffith, in the hope that the media eventually will ignore him.
Morgan is seizing his opportunity for relevance. He produced a 50/50 when other polls were showing Labor ahead. He surely could do another one now. Keepinh\g the sample size small helps
during every election campaign you hear mixed opinion polls, interal polling etc , ebbs and flows with
commentary etc, and next day after the election you are told the result was always expected it was
a forgone conlusion etc. this will be happen this time aswell
Gary I’d want someone who said they’d do something about it not talk about it which is all Ms Gillard will do for three years.
If and it is a big IF the Libs get in I will fume if they dont introduce Nuclear Power, otherwise they are gutless sods IMHO.
Lefty e, youre spot on. The fact that Labor are holding their fire is a good sign. They are not panicked
[Morgan is seizing his opportunity for relevance. He produced a 50/50 when other polls were showing Labor ahead. He surely could do another one now. Keeping the sample size small helps]
And a snap phone poll taken last night when the Oakes Story broke will also help.
All hypothetical of course but CLASSIC Tv 😀
I want to see the live cross to Griffiths with Kevin Rudd after Gillard loses her majority.
[How are you feeling tonight Kevin?]
[ IF that is correct Frank the Greens must be shite scared of Abbott getting in ]
They would be most deserving. Pity the rest of us, but then that is the last thing the Greens care about.
Also Gary,if you think about it the Greens will always score a higher vote under a Labor Government because they’ll get more ‘left’ protest votes. Once Labor loses a good chunk of these protest votes will flow back to Labor as people are reminded just how bad the Liberals are and get a more idealistic picture of Labor.
In this way, it’s in the Greens best interest electorally to keep a Labor Government in and attack them from the left.
didnt the morgan poll come with 55-45 to beazley in 2001 like 2 days before the election lol full of s*** to be honest
Well, if its a 50/50 Morgan tommorrow it will be interesting to see what it does to Poss’s trends? I guess it would flatten it out somewhat. But, all that really means is the polls out early next week will be awaited with much more interest.
Only two weeks into the campaign, and i reckon if we see more of Julia G as she was today, Abboot is in deep manure.
[Lefty e, youre spot on. The fact that Labor are holding their fire is a good sign. They are not panicked]
Note the lack of TV ads and press ads from either party in the daily press.
The ads will increase as the campaign progresses – most notably after the Campaign Launch.
Mikeisright
Yes i understand that people on the street will probably never appreciate that.
I just dont like hearing people repeat the simple debt is bad line without anything at all said in reply. On that programs focus group i hear some of the stupidest rubbish possible. Like a guy who said he would have rathered tax cuts as it woulda been better for the budget. Foolish i know.
I just wish labor would stop ignoring it and say anything. They dont need to win the argument.
Ron
unfortunately just because something seems silly and illogical with even a basic understanding does not mean it has no resonance.
Not sure where these figures on Labor retaining all of their marginal QLD seats are coming from… the figures I’ve seen, and the whispers from internal, show them pretty well behind.
Adele is up to her old tricks then, Frank?
These ALP boffins baffle me,
They have basically conceded incumbency.
Argument should be easy -“our economy is the envy of the developed world” “350,000 jobs created, unemployment at 5 % growth at 3% while the rest battle recession, interest rates lower than under Howard, amongst lowest public debt in the developed world – when the GFC struck labor saved peoples jobs. because jobs create wealth, harmony and surpluses. Labor would do the same again”
Tie that in to “Labor believes in jobs, good conditions and employment security – libs will sacrifice jobs, good conditions and job security with workchoices”
If labor make the claim (which is based on reality) -the heat will go on to libs with their hyperbole debt and deficit claims.
[What will Bludgers do on the off chance Abbott does become PM?]
Step 1: Tell myself it is all just a bad dream and I’ll wake up
Step 2: Curse at the stupidity of the public
Step 3: Cry
Step 4: Cry some more because we’ll keep having shit internet.
Step 5: Ponder what Tony’s cuts to overseas student numbers will mean for my job at uni.
Step 6: Go somewhere were there is no TV, Radio, Newspaper or Internet to calm down.
Step 7: Be happy that the Libs don’t have control of the senate for much longer.
Step 8: Watch the Libs implement their policies and modify them to fit reality (Treasury will sort them out a bit).
Step 9: Watch Turnbull get rid of Tony
Step 10: Watch Turnbull hold a referendum on the republic which then gets passed.
Step 11: Watch Glen’s reaction to that 😛
I think I’ll wait till after election night to actually figure out what I will do.
Gloryconsequence there was a Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals that showed them in front in Brisbane seats (although tied in Brisbane and Ryan).
thats my point before every election you hear a million different ones with different it all about believing the one you want to believe in lol this election is the same parrarell as 1998 and 2004
Mithrandir,
You forgot emigrate.
Hmm, Quincelanders are a funny lot.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/labor-tipped-to-lose-seats-in-queensland/story-fn3dxity-1225898167300
ltep@2391
I will be very disappointed, as I worry about the religion in Abbott. However the consolation otherwise will be that in policy terms:
Economics:
No difference. Henry review may or may not be taken up by either party piecemeal.
Middle class welfare to stay either way.
Company tax the same.
Education:
No difference. Same policy on funding private education both big parties – perpetuating Howard’s outrageous profligacy for ideological reasons.
Industrial Relations:
Now no essential difference. Workchoices is essentially dead now. The issue is neutered. An Abbott government would be signing its death warrant to even change the regulations. Both keeping the Howard punitive building commission thing.
Climate Change.
Both fiddling around with small scale stuff, no commitment to a carbon price or a trading scheme now. Nothing real likely in next parliament by either party. Labor’s new peoples’ parliament would be fun to watch though, in a bad way.
Refugees
No difference.
Internet Filter (smaller issue)
Labor says yes, Libs say nothing much. Less likely under Libs by the look.
In one sense ‘knowing your enemy’ is better than having a two-faced right-wing ‘labour’ party in power. Most of the rorts against workers happen under Labor governments because they can get away with it – unions are relatively tame under them. For example the Accord in the 1980’s. Superannuation and workers’ compensation changes in NSW to the detriment of workers always under Labor.
Jon
Am I incorrect? Is that what you mean? Or is it just another rant against a critic of the major parties including the one you are here to serve?
A mate reckons he has heard its 52-48 to ALP in tomorrow’s morgan. The best tip is the Morgan newsheet tonight where its says that things are tightening for labor and will continue to do so – 50/50 would suggest that its even, not tightening. Guess we will see tomorrow.
As for Qld, some of you guys are being overly pessimistic. From what I hear there are different swings on in different seats. I do think we will lose Dawson and Flynn, but Jim Tunour will hang on. We will also ‘lose’ Dickson and maybe Longman, but will pick up Herbert. I can see more than a net loss of around 4 seats. That is bad, but I think we can contain losses in NSW. Do expect a 4% uniform swing to the Libs in Qld though.
Hang in there. Today is a turning point for Julia. I still think we will win. This is our bad week but I have a feeling that this is where we swing back up. Please remember the person perceived to have done the best in the debate always picks up in the week after. Long way to go; no-one is giving up just yet.