Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump

Roy Morgan has published leadership ratings from a phone survey of 680 respondents conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, and it shows Julia Gillard taking a solid hit. Gillard’s approval is down 12 points to 46 per cent and her disapproval up 10 to 37 per cent, while Tony Abbott is now equal on approval with Gillard, having risen four points to 46 per cent, and down eight on disapproval to 40 per cent. Abbott has also narrowed his preferred prime minister deficit from 58-29 to 48-33. The shifts are compared with last week’s phone poll, which showed what seemed an excessive 55.5-44.5 two-party Labor lead. While the consistency in shifts towards Abbott and away from Gillard seems consistent with the idea that sampling issues at least partly explain the size of the change, it should be noted that Monday’s Newspoll also showed significant falls in Gillard’s personal ratings. There has been chatter about a looming 50-50 two-party result from Morgan, which would seem consistent with the figures provided.

My federal election guide will be unveiled in all its glory today, work on which has prevented me from providing more than sporadic coverage of late. Hopefully that will now improve.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “Morgan phone poll: Gillard approval slump”

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  1. [So f2f no change, phone down a bit. Basically Tone in the poo.]

    But of course the story will be how this poll was taken before the leak on pensioners and PPL.

  2. Expat Follower,

    I could not bring myself to vote for Barry O’Farrell and I cannot abide the Lib candidate in my electorate anyway. I don’t believe NSW will be any better off under O’Farrells lot so why jump out of the frying pan into the fire? It appears to be on the cards that the NSW Govt will fall anyway so my vote isn’t going to count for much.

  3. [But of course the story will be how this poll was taken before the leak on pensioners and PPL.]

    NBN will be released Tomorrow – guess who is polling Tomorrow 🙂

    PPL/Pensioners is already old news – except on their ABC.

  4. [But of course the story will be how this poll was taken before the leak on pensioners and PPL]

    It wasn’t. It was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday night, after the leak.

  5. And the poll was taken before Julia became superJulia again at her “deal with the leaks presser”.

    I was worried when I heard the equal approval – but the 53/47 is not so worrying.

    Though the sample sizes seem small.

  6. [That’s because climate change is not a vote-changer.]

    This is the sort of talk that sees governments thrown out. Pity Adam can’t stop being a party apparatchik.

    Bottom line is, the average non-connected voter likes to see their elected governments follow through on their committments. They failed on CC. Therefore it’s another reason for the swinging voter to lose faith in this one and switch over again.

    Some people put way too much faith in the average joe’s political knowledge and interest… WAY too much.

  7. Expat Follower, the once Conservative Parties here and in the US have been taken over by intolerant religious populists. Menzies would be a despised wet in the current Liberal Party. Eisenhower and Nixon would not be tolerated in the madhouse that is now the GOP, even Goldwater would not be welcome. Somehow the GOP has got to reform itself,for the rest of the worlds sake.

  8. I think this poll will have covered a large part of the negative aspect of the leak – ie the period before Julia’s press conference response.

  9. Victoria
    [People are seeing and experiencing the BER for themselves.]
    Local rag.
    Inside, all Liberals. Negative, negative, negative. Safe Liberal seat, what do you expect?
    But, the front page was on new amenities in the local schools. 35 schools in this very safe Liberal electorate have experienced positive benefits from the BER program. I must say for a very safe seat there has been an enormous amount of money & attention thrown this way.

  10. What Labor badly needs right now is a credible poll putting Libs
    ahead 52-48 or something like that, so that voters at this point
    of the campaign are forced to seriously contemplate PM Abbott.

  11. Sorry ru – didn’t see your post before I hit the keyboard.

    Looks like a very healthy TPP to me. Hardly a bombshell finding.

  12. Funny how all the Laborites believe MORGAN’s 53-47 but not Galaxy’s 50-50. Morgan… sheesh.

    I guess people believe whatever fits their narrative though…

  13. One thing we can be sure is in the next election the hacks will be falling over each other looking for women-specific handouts 🙂

  14. [Nevertheless, I shiver when I think what the poor soul went through in the last few minutes of his life.]

    Not a shred of disagreement from me on that point. Then again, it’s WA, where there are times when anyone of a progressive bent could wonder if it’s 1910, not 2010…………

  15. [NBN will be released Tomorrow – guess who is polling Tomorrow 🙂

    PPL/Pensioners is already old news]

    Yep, a day is a long time in a campaign.

    I suspected that Morgan’s 2PP didn’t suit the narrative of a government in crisis. Held over for 12 hours until the other numbers had been reported throughout the day.

  16. [Funny how all the Laborites believe MORGAN’s 53-47 but not Galaxy’s 50-50]

    The last poll which Galaxy produced showing 50-50 was blown out of the water by three other polls taken at the same time.

  17. bob1234
    [They failed on CC. Therefore it’s another reason for the swinging voter to lose faith in this one and switch over again.]
    The voters won’t think that if they see the new Coalition ads attacking the ALP & the Greens on their impending Carbon Tax.
    So the party that reckons the ALP has no CC policy is attacking it over a CC policy.
    What the????

  18. BB,

    That’s a movie script not an advertising campaign.

    You’ve obviously never spent 12 hours straight, half an hour off for pizza and then another 6 hours editing a 60 second commercial, GG. You can cram a lot into 60 seconds given enough time and good material. You can hone those babies to the frame. The best of the best do it as a daily thing. The worst of the worst put together those low, rumbling, storm cloud numbers with B&W nasty images of the Fascist of the Day looking grim and uninviting.

    I’ve got an old copy of Win 2000, no frills, certainly no bundled film editing software, at all. I wish I had something better or I’d do it myself and post the first draft on Youtube as a discussion piece.

    The point is there are hundreds of thousands in work today, or who got work at the time who wouldn’t be without the BER, batts, infrastructure etc. as Stiglitz said the REAL waste would have been to retrench them, shut down industry and construction, with follow-on effects on retail and services. Queues would have been out the door and into the carpark at Centrelink, with all those tradies filling out the extra forms – exponentially extra – that they make the self-employed who have investments, a partner and a house fill out to prove they’re not rorting.

    And there are millions around the world who DID end up up destitute, their countries broke, their citizens rioting and burning, their bankers ripping them off for trillions. They just walked away from their homes and their jobs (and in some cases their lives). This grim prospect needs to be contrasted with the bright future we have here if we play our cards right and don’t fall for the temptation to Wowserism we so often indulge ourselves in when we see someone get ahead (including our neighbours, our friends and especially our politicians).

    We should be rejoicing, not whingeing about our lot. Rudd made it hard for himself, by taking the blame for every malcontent and Liberal Party barracker who could bootstrap an issue into a talkback session or a headline. So many Labor people do that. It’s as if they enjoy the pain of being mocked by ignoramuses who wouldn’t know a good deal if it up and bit them on the nipple.

    The temptation in going positive would be to go “smarmy” instead. We don’t need cute little Mum’s and little babies in some studio. Cinema verite is the go. A psitive ad should use a minimum of manufactured footage and a maximum of newsreel footage. It should encompass all the key points in brief so they can be developed into spin off campaigns of their own.

    Labor in power is trying too hard to be “statesmanlike”. The ministers are so full of themselves that they come over as stilted automatons during interviews and pressers. They’re trying to contrast their governmental standing with the rabble of the Coalition barnstormers. But this will never work. The Libs have the franchise on “statesman” and “born to rule”, just as Labor have the franchise on “one withthe workers and the less well-off” Labor should play to its strengths, not to what they would like to be their strengths. They should take the stereotype the Coalitionuse against them and turn it on its head, rejoice in it, make it a positive, not a negative. Say, “Up yours Liberals and your whingeing lackeys”, and take pride in themselves. Go on the offensive, not the defensive.

    THAT’S what “Moving Forward” should be all about, not Labor types masquerading as suits.

  19. [Funny how all the Laborites believe MORGAN’s 53-47 but not Galaxy’s 50-50]
    I was just going to ask PB’s who is the most credible if any at all, Galaxy or Morgan?

  20. So if Morgan is 53-47 what is the shock supposed to be?

    BTW don’t forget Aristotle at 7.15 am tomorrow with ABC2 Breakfast.

  21. [ Go on the offensive, not the defensive.

    THAT’S what “Moving Forward” should be all about, not Labor types masquerading as suits.]
    And funnily enough your suggestions are what the female PB’s on this blog have been banging on about for weeks.

  22. Ron – only my concession – am sure others’ wont! Not sure how much better Hilary would have fared, what I can say is that she could not have done worse.

    After all these mea culpas, do I qualify for “swinging voter” status with you?!

  23. very poor form for Morgan and/or 7 to release the negative (gillard’s ratings) one day and the 2pp (which has held up OK) the day after. I wonder why they did that

  24. The Blue-ringed Octopus report July 28

    Dear reader, a warning note. Work once again interrupted Bluey’s pollitragic behaviour so the results are more random than usual. Also, Bluey is one pissed octopus, and has not been able to stop himself venting a little black ink. Perhaps a cephalapodic anger management course is in order?

    Agendas: Rudd! and the UN job; Rudd! and leaks; no more Neale!, the leaks, flick knives and gangbusters, disabilities, and faith, or lack thereof.

    Narratives: Yet another day dominated by the handiwork of Labor’s discards. What is it with Neale!, Ellis!, Latham!, and the leakers!, that somehow they think they have the right to stick it to the poor bloody foot soldiers, the faithful, the ones who are out there corfluting and letterboxing, the ones who do actually give a flying f**k about the dispossessed, about those in our society who do need a lift, about the kids who will be going to public schools which have been chronically underfunded, about the sick who need hospitals, about the disabled, about the kids who do need trade training, about pensioners, about vulnerable workers and about the elderly poor?

    What a prize pack of bitter, self-pitying monomanaical bastards you are! Bluey reckons youse should all just f*** off where youse belong and join the Liberals or the Greens. Go share your sleaze with Abbott. It is a natural fit. In case you haven’t noticed, you are effectively working for the side of greed-ridden individualism, of racism, of social vandals, and of climate denial. So just piss off and get over to the dark side now. Stick your hands into the nearest tide pool and Bluey will show you what you are really worth. Grrr.

    Bishop Hickey got into the sectarian war thing by doing a bit of a dog whistle on atheists. Good for the Mad Monk. Bluey reckons that atheists already put up with enough sh*t what with having to subsidize religious nutters and hypocritical old farts who wear purple dresses and who can’t seem to figure out how to stop the paedophiles that infest their ranks. Still, it won’t do Gillard any good.

    The journos could not leave the leak alone. They licked it; they gnawed it; they turned in round and round in their paws; they luxuriated in it, they joked about it, they bathed in it, they played with it as a cat plays with a dying mouse, and they hoped for another leak tomorrow. How revealing of their values and their true value. At last they have something that they can understand and appreciate: bastardry. Bluey reckons this is the real bread and butter stuff of a largely discredited profession. Of course, none of this is at all good for Gillard.

    The national disability strategy was really the only ray of humanist hope in an otherwise bleak landscape. It got a bit of positive press, but in the MSM it was swamped by leaks, flick knives, leaks, gangbusters and leaks. Groan.

    Blooper: Gillard said that the regional processing centre would be in ‘Nauru’. Sky played it over and repeated it around eight times in the space of about two hours. Nice work on the policy analysis side of things, guys. BTW these are the same guys who criticized endless repetition of ‘Going Forward’. Bloody dopey hypocrites.

    Press blooper from yesterday: Daily Telegraph headline: ‘A Killer Rates Rise.’ Well you sleazoid intellectual runts, there is no rate raise. Even octopodes know that.

    Polls: Morgan came in with some good news for Labor on the social and IR side but sh*thouse news just about everywhere else. It once again shows a gender divide. Bluey predicted these outcomes and opines that Bludgers should be ready for something like 51:49 tomorrow; or worse. Bluey sincerely hopes he is wrong.

    External news: Earth is getting every, very warm. Repent ye Denialists and all will be forgiven. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the minds of investors about where the international economy is going. California, the world’s 8th largest economy, is close to bankruptcy, and is also close to handing out IOUs to its workers. The share market is down a bit. Another boat. Or was it yesterday’s boat reported again by the MSM today? Bluey wouldn’t put it past the amoral pricks.

    Score for the day: The rats in the ranks give it to Abbott, 2 points. Cumulative score, Abbott, 12 points; Gillard, 12 points.

  25. Bushfire Bill way back @ 297 and in many other of your posts on this blog.

    I must say you put the problem most cogently and with passion. I too thought that Rudd did the wrong thing apologising about the batts thing and any fightback by the Govt of the BER “rorts” accusations has been less than woeful.

    I also believe Rudd should not have been shanghaied. His colleagues and future cabinet members should/would have known what his style was like long before they decided to elect him to the job of Leader of the Opposition. I’m highly suspicious of this “internal” polling meme – who’s to say it’s not coming from the same deads*** who is doing his/her all to wreck the Government by slow-drip leaks?

    At the time I was persuaded by several PB’ers whom I respect that it was the right thing to do. Now I’m not so sure. Call me a nervous nellie if you will but that is my thought at the moment.

    Several posters have said that Labor has yet to bring out the “big guns” on policy. Why wait till the last minute? Is Big Bertha hiding round the corner somewhere? All I’ve seen so far is the Government having to defend itself over trivial crap from a media that seems to think it is the power in the land. Her earlobes, for God’s sake! Her (shock, horror) hairdresser partner and she’s not even married to him – well a bolt of lightning strike us down!

    We should be streets ahead of this idiotic, xenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic opposition and yet, Possum’s trendline or not, I remain fearful that the Libs will scrape through thanks to the toxic help given to the opposition by the media.

    I can’t for the life of me see where changing Rudd for Gillard has helped one bit (and a makeover in the AWW will not help, it’s just something our female, and some male customers, read over a cup of coffee). Most commentary in my newsagency has been, she looks like some actress or other.

    I know Psephos said sometime ago that the internal polling was terrible for Rudd – well he wasnt exactly supported by his cabinet was he? Poor little precious things – didn’t they like being told who was boss?

    I can’t recall, in any job I’ve ever been in, that management decided to change leaders because a few sooks were upset with his/her management style. Other reasons perhaps, like potentially bankrupting the company, yes, but I doubt if Rudd was doing that in this case.

    Also this constant harrassing of the former PM by the media for a “gotcha” moment is not helping the cause at all. I doubt very much if Rudd is the Leak – I have no idea who is, but if they are ever found, then they should be sacked and lose their super pension and/or perks for life for ruining a wonderful country, which is what I fear will happen if Abbott and Co get in. A jail term wouldn’t go amiss either. Perhaps there is some sort of treason statute! However, all we saw on the news was that Swan, Gillard and someone else say that he was an “honourable” man – well shades of Mark Anthony’s speech there! In other words they don’t really believe he is not the leak. Gillard has the power to put it to bed once and for all by appearing with him, stating categorically that he will be a senior minister and using his talents in the campaign. I know he is working in his electorate but I would imagine it is pretty rusted on so I’m sure he could be a help in some other marginals in Qld or wherever.

    I will still be voting Labor but I am not a happy bunny right now. They’d better turn the ship around pretty quickly with some real imaginative policies rather than a “citizens’ committee on anything that is in the too hard basket.

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