Tipping point

Crikey is running a tipping competition in which participants are asked to pick winners in 20 selected marginal seats (and also nominate the precise margin in Bowman as a tie-breaker). Not only is there a $5000 prize on offer, it also gives us a chance to measure the collective wisdom in these matters of the Crikey readership. It also means you get a first glimpse of my much-delayed election guide, with entries now available for the 20 seats in question. The whole thing will follow in reasonably short order (promise).

In other news, The Australian have provided us with attitudinal polling from the latest Newspoll. This finds “leadership” and industrial relations have increased in salience as importance issues since February; that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures, while Labor is streets ahead on health, education and industrial relations. It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,595 comments on “Tipping point”

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  1. Tomorrow’s OO:

    [ Australian Politics aus_politics
    Neal tipped not to oppose ALP: NSW Labor bosses are confident Belinda Neal will not end her 30-year involvement in… http://bit.ly/aHWL8Z 5 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Australian Politics aus_politics
    At last, we are seeing the real Prime Minister: JULIA Gillard used the word “passionate” yesterday as if she meant… http://bit.ly/afYLwC 5 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Australian Politics aus_politics
    Rates reprieve for Gillard: THE best set of inflation figures in three years has saved the government and home buy… http://bit.ly/au41e7 5 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    aus_politics
    Abbott trumps Labor on tax cut: TONY Abbott has trumped the government with the promise of a 1.5 percentage-point … http://bit.ly/a8A7LD ]

  2. Tomorrow’s OO:

    [ aus_politics
    Abbott trumps Labor on tax cut: TONY Abbott has trumped the government with the promise of a 1.5 percentage-point … http://bit.ly/a8A7LD

    aus_politics
    Neal tipped not to oppose ALP: NSW Labor bosses are confident Belinda Neal will not end her 30-year involvement in… http://bit.ly/aHWL8Z 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Australian Politics aus_politics
    At last, we are seeing the real Prime Minister: JULIA Gillard used the word “passionate” yesterday as if she meant… http://bit.ly/afYLwC 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Australian Politics aus_politics
    Rates reprieve for Gillard: THE best set of inflation figures in three years has saved the government and home buy… http://bit.ly/au41e7 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Australian Politics aus_politics
    Add 10pc for BER cost rise, builders told: BUILDERS tendering for work under the BER were told to include a “cost … http://bit.ly/axMK3r 6 minutes ago via twitterfeed ]

  6. I thought Bowen was terrible on Lateline. It would have been difficult having to deal with the leak story for the first half of the interview, but a message that needs to be put out there is that a leak like that isn’t damaging, because it isn’t even credible. Slip in a line about Abbott doing more damage to his credibility every single day, and then return to topic. The part about Gillard being against pensioners was inaccurate – and Gillard flatly rejected it – and the part about her opposing the PPL was a half-truth at best and a grievous misrepresentation of her position on the matter. So on the whole it’s a non-story that’s just wasted a day of the campaign sorting out. A day we could have spent analysing the train-wreck that is the Liberal policy platform.

    Jones went on about it being unprecedented in an election campaign, but I guess the response to that is that there’s bound to be some risk of it when you change leaders so close to an election. No-one suspects Rudd, but of course he had his supporters – whoever this one is, he has no damaging information to reveal, so we move on.

    If that moves on to the wisdom of changing leaders, the best response is that we’re having a referendum on that right now, and it’s called an election.

    Do you know who the leaker is? Somebody not all that well connected, it seems. Everyone knows roughly how cabinet works, and everyone knows policies are debated at the costing level. That claim could have been made against any one of the cabinet members and contain just as much truth.

    In response to Robb’s blather, there’s a good response too. Robust discussion of the costings of policies at cabinet level is the sign of a responsible government. If the Liberal party did a bit more of that, we’d have fewer fiascos like their PPL scheme, which was so ineptly put together that they have to withdraw it and start again.

    That, at least, is the way I think Labor should approach the issue. Not sure if it’s entirely accurate, but it presents them in the best light. I still think the best defence of any criticism contains not only an explanation that makes sense, but ends with an attack on your opponent.

  7. [Reader TQS warns:

    Not wanting to spoil the party, but Morgan’s phone polls seem to consistently favour the Coalition, even compared to their own face to face polls.

    The link to the full detailed poll is here:http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4519/ Check out the past three phone polls, as compared to the past three face to face polls (last one is the current phone poll compared to the last face to their face poll under Rudd). The figures are two-party preferred calculated on voters preferences as electors say they will vote:

    May 12/13, 2010 (Phone): ALP 48.5 LIB/NAT 51.5

    May 15/16, 2010 (Face:: ALP 50 LIB/NAT 50

    May 26/27, 2010 (Phone): ALP 49.5 LIB/NAT 50.5

    May 29/30, 2010 (Face): ALP 52 LIB/NAT 48

    June 19/20, 2010 (Face): ALP 53 LIB/NAT 47

    June 25-28, 2010 (Phone): ALP 49 LIB/NAT 51[

    sorry guys could not sleep found this o dear ARi where are u

  9. Not sure if anyone has posted it but Morgan has released some of it’s poll findings (not voting intentions) from polling done on Tuesday/Wednesday. From these you can expect the vote diggers to show a substantial ‘narrowing’. Gillards personal ratings have taken a fair hit.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2010/4544/

    One could note that Rudds personal ratings took a slight hit during the campaign too.

  10. one one wonders who they polled o wel wait for ananalisi

    thats the trouble for william and living over there he doesnt see these polls till late i suppose i not to worried about it yes
    just dont beleive it.

  12. So is this voting intensions on the day of oakes comments

    people get grabby etc so its really quite sensationalising to do polls then
    what do you all think

  13. Yes my say, the Liberals were behind at this stage in 2004 I think but the difference was that the polls were trending towards them. In this case it appears the polls are trending towards them.

    Yes they did poll on the day of Oakes’ comments but I think these are just the normal days that Morgan polls for channel 7 now.

  14. [Yes they did poll on the day of Oakes’ comments but I think these are just the normal days that Morgan polls for channel 7 now.]

    are u still there

  17. My say I don’t maw it a habit to look at Bolt’s writings but I plunged in and had a look and content find any mention. We should find out the result shortly.

  18. Flicked on Channel 7 and so far they’re just reporting the closing of the gap of womens figures. If this holds up across other polls Labor might have some cause for concern but theres little they can do about it.

  20. [ this holds up across other polls Labor might have some cause for concern but theres little they can do about it.]

    i doubt it very much that that gap would close futher

    polls now seem to be done so you will watch a certain station or read a paper

    was it alwasy like that

  21. [The figures are two-party preferred calculated on voters preferences as electors say they will vote: ]

    can someone explain this please

  23. My say, it just means that the people polled are asked which of the major parties they would give their preference to if they chose someone else for their first preference.

  24. [Paul_J
    Posted Thursday, July 29, 2010 at 6:04 am | Permalink
    Whats the 2pp now then ?]

    well apparently itep who looked said they dont mention it on gaps re julia and
    a

  25. Paul, they haven’t said yet. So far they’re just talking about the figures mentioned in the Morgan article linked to above.

  32. well this the last time i try this one the bolt figues i saw where the 29th june.

    so i suppose there is no p p just he nonsence re gender etc.

    w

  33. Oh dear,
    ALP lies blaming the Greens for failure to do anything to save the environment not fooling the pubic,

    [Both major parties have lost ground on the issues of the environment and reducing taxes. The Greens are clearly seen as the best party for looking after the environment (57%, up 10%) compared to the ALP (15%, down 2%) and L-NP 14% (down 6%).]

    what next Greens close zoo and eat fluffy animals?

  34. Rofl we both got it wrong

    It can’t be worse than 51/49 2pp and given it’s only a sample size of 680 nationally and yesterday was a bad media day it shouldn’t really be seen as credible I would think.

    cheers

  37. [The Greens are also seen as the best party for managing global warming and climate change (46%, up 5%) at the expense of both major parties — compared to the L-NP (19%, down 4%) and ALP 17% (down 4%).]

    Could this be the reason the ALP went early on the election?

    With the weather going balistic and killing people all across the northen hemisphere, how would hot and bothered voters in summer take out their anger??

  39. [Despite substantial gains in the electorate’s perception of the ALP as the best party for health services and hospitals, needs of families and a fair workplace and employment relations, Julia Gillard has lost ground personally …]

    This is where the election will be won or lost and Labor have hardly begun to campaign on these issues yet. 🙂

  41. [LNP candidate Malcolm Cole won’t live in his electorate if he wins the seat of Moreton after releasing misleading campaign material claiming he is already a resident.
    Mr Cole issued a statement saying a printing error was responsible for campaign literature inferring he lived within Moreton.

    LNP headquarters has taken responsibility for the error, which it says happened in the printing process.

    “Malcolm gave the correct information,” LNP communication manager Cameron Thompson said. “The mistake was ours, not his]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/moreton-candidate-malcolm-cole-wont-live-in-electorate-if-elected/story-fn5z3z83-1225897741628

    The LNP just keeps giving – Moreton voters are not happy 🙂

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