Crikey is running a tipping competition in which participants are asked to pick winners in 20 selected marginal seats (and also nominate the precise margin in Bowman as a tie-breaker). Not only is there a $5000 prize on offer, it also gives us a chance to measure the collective wisdom in these matters of the Crikey readership. It also means you get a first glimpse of my much-delayed election guide, with entries now available for the 20 seats in question. The whole thing will follow in reasonably short order (promise).
In other news, The Australian have provided us with attitudinal polling from the latest Newspoll. This finds “leadership” and industrial relations have increased in salience as importance issues since February; that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures, while Labor is streets ahead on health, education and industrial relations. It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.
William,
Bret Treasure is standing in Swan for the Sex Party.
Some info on him is on his blog here.
http://freebeer.com.au/
He is the son of the Late Brian Treasure former joint Managing Director of TVW7.
http://watvhistory.com/2009/10/bret-treasure-writes-about-his-father-brian-treasure-former-joint-managing-director-of-tvw/
The Greens Candidate for Hasluck is Glenice Smith, who is also Indigenous.
Info on her here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/07/23/2963000.htm
“that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures”
Generational perception of Liberals as better on many econamics areas amazing given GFC etc One can NOT say Rudd and Swan and Tanner not been quite public on there success’s Perhaps how Media reports presents has more influense on voter overall thoughts on issues than is thought
(William , did a long post on last thread , hit post , bizzo all gone…just a white damn screen , with your ‘sorry message’ on it Amazin , I clicked back arrow and it was still there so i copied it – seems thats how posters can stop being zapped at thread end)
Psephos
Posted Monday, July 26, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink
The person most responsible for the poor state of Australia’s response to climate change is Bob Brown….and instead become the populist leader of a minor party which spends all its energy trying to win seats FROM Labor,…. Brown has hijacked the environment movement and turned it into an ANTI-Labor political party, …”
Adam , glad you joined publicly so many PBers here who see Greens Party itself as an enemy of Labor , sharking Labor votes by popularism lies of reality of Labor polisys
You NEVER see Greens Party’s Bob Brown defend or sell HIS Party’s positions (becuase they’re lunitical, but instead just carp at Labor Party but rarely th Liberals !!….dittto with 95% of Green Bloggers here
Amazing , Greens bloggers want Labor to propose at Election its current polisy of 5% ETS but they oppose it ! ,
AND a 5% ETS proposal Greens Party rejected in th Seante 3 times ,
AND a 5% ETS proposel Greens Party themselves alone prevented being legislatd
AND a 5% ETS Bill that Greens Party reused to negoatiate on , and demanded a non negotiable 25% cut on
NOW they want Labor still to take Labors still CURRENT 5% ETS polisy to people on 21/8 , with a great risk Labor could lose Election on it , but Greens oppose it anyway
THEN , even if Labor won an Electon on its 5% ETS polisy , and put it up for a Senate vote then Greens Party (and Liberals) will still vote against it !!
So only value of Labor putting up its 5% ETS proposal at Election is
1/ Labor could risk lose whole shib bang Govt
2/ Greens & Liberals wuld attack it for cynical vote grabbing reasons to up there votes
3/ a later re-elected Labor Govt then still gets it Senate rejected by th Greeens Party & Liberals
Therefore Greens PBers criticising Labor for not putting up its 5% ETS on 21/8 ar totally deseptive , and frankly as a result i just wonder wheether you care more for increasing Greens Party votes at expense of Labor , than reel care for CC solutions
There is a 3 way politcal stalemate on CC at now , leave that as is and zero CC action will happen if thats what people want Julia wishes a circuit breaker with BOTH an OZ Science Panel to ASSURE voters CC is sience based…and a joe public forum to get community momentum suport for peoples accepting they actualy need to pay a price for mitigation
Whilst such a CC roadblok breaker concept may be alittle subtle for voters (not following politcs and so not knowing that Liberals and Greens CC shanegins & obstuction cynic acts has been going on for th last year) , those PBers here that oppose it mislead because they wont say they’d oppose 5% ETS anyway making there please Julia put it up in this Elction quite fraud bloggings
William:
[It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.]
It would seem to me that Newspoll has realised that they need to significantly reduce their MOE, and the incidence of “rogue polls”.
They seem, with this latest info, thanks very much, to be trying to establish themselves as the most reliable poll, and are walking the walk as well as talking the talk.
A very welcome development.
[JULIA Gillard will today give the green light to one of southeast Queensland’s major infrastructure missing links – the $1.15 billion Redcliffe rail connection.
In the first significant election pledge targeting the must-win state, the Prime Minister will pledge to deliver the 12.6km Petrie to Kippa-Ring rail line by 2016.]
Te he pinching State LNP policy, good trick Julia. 🙂
[A GREENS candidate in a Queensland marginal seat has quit the party over its preferences deal with Labor.
He has exposed growing unease within the ranks over the swap that could prove critical in returning the Gillard government.
Retiree Adrian Wone, the Greens candidate for the Coalition-held seat of Hinkler, yesterday confirmed he would stand as an independent after being admonished by party officials over his comments last week that he would break the preferences deal.]
Wot? Is Bob Brown next?
And from the Sunny Coast – The Daily taking the piss on Slipper.
[Slipper pledge to stay awake?
Alan Lander | 27th July 2010
MEMBER for Fisher Peter Slipper has vowed to make four election promises in the remaining four weeks of the Federal election campaign, under the banner Four Pledges in Four Weeks.
In his infrastructure pledge, he will take on Federal and State governments in six-laning the Bruce Highway from Caboolture to the Sunshine Motorway; improve the Caloundra and Sippy Downs interchanges on the highway; ensure the new Sunshine Coast University Hospital is built; and ensure no further delays in the implementation of the Sippy Downs Town Centre Master Plan.
Mr Slipper said his pledges would “relate directly to the Sunshine Coast’s key issues of infrastructure, health, employment and lifestyle”.
The Daily sought clues as to what Mr Slipper’s remaining three pledges might be but none were forthcoming, so we are asking readers to supply their own suggestions.
We have come up with the following:
•Pledge that all Coalition MPs ensure they remain awake during visiting dignitaries’ Canberra speeches?
• Pledge that Mr Slipper invite fellow Coast MP Alex Somlyay over for lunch sometime soon?
• Also pledge to invite Mal Brough, at least for drinks?
• Pledge to preserve our coastal waters by limiting the number of new sunken naval dive wrecks to one every five years?]
[trying to establish themselves as the most reliable poll]
It will be pretty exciting if the last poll before election day shows a 3 or 4 point gap between say Nielsen v Newspoll or Newspoll v Essential. Bragging rights will be highly sought after. I’d like to see Newpoll’s reputation taken down a notch as too often Newspoll numbers are used to support the most obnoxious themes/views of News Ltd journalists with those themes flowing straight to the ABC. Of course the exact opposite may happen and Newspoll get the result bang on target – that will be a sad day for democracy.
Should Labor win I want to see legislation introduced (supported by BB) that will reduce the amount of media ownership possible under one owner…with the additional requisite that owners must be Australian citizens.
William, in your guide for Gilmore you’ve labelled Nick Reilly as Liberal.
Here’s my completely unscientific tips:
Western Australia
Stirling (Liberal retain)
Hasluck (Liberal gain)
Swan (Liberal retain)
Tasmania
Bass (Labor retain)
New South Wales
Cowper (Labor gain)
Hughes (Labor gain)
Paterson (Labor gain)
Macarthur (Labor gain)
Gilmore (Liberal retain)
Robertson (Liberal gain)
Macquarie (Labor retain)
Queensland
Ryan (LNP retain)
Dickson (LNP gain)
Bowman (Labor gain)
Herbert (LNP retain)
Victoria
Corangamite (Labor retain)
La Trobe (Liberal retain)
McEwen (Labor gain)
South Australia
Sturt (Liberal retain)
Northern Territory
Solomon (CLP gain)
William – when does the tipping competition close?
I’d like to make my tips a bit closer to August 21 😉
Itep. Your tips are pretty optimistic where Labor concerned.
ruawake
Regarding Slipper’s promises – I’m pretty sure all that stuff has been in (Qld State Govt) SEQ Infrastructure Plans (SEQIP) for some years now. The State funded timing is printed in the plans. If Slipper wanted to bring it forward he could have promised that years ago, even while still in government. If he isn’t bringing it forward, he is just announcing what Anna Bligh already intends to deliver.
SEQIP is here
http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/seqipp
Sunshine Coast plan is here
http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/SEQIPP/seqipp-sunshine-coast.pdf
Of course, like most coalition promises, if he intends to bring the work forward, lets see how he will pay for it without increasing our “terrifying” debt. The items he listed add up to over $2 billion. The hospital alone is $1.97B in SEQIP.
Further on Slipper’s promises, actually it is worse than I thought. Having just checked SEQIP, the Bruce Highway six laning is NOT in the plan. The idea instead is to build the rail line to the Sunshine Coast to give people an alternative to car based commuting from Brisbane to the coast. Is Slipper saying he will not fund the rail line?
[ Is Slipper saying he will not fund the rail line?]
Slipper has problems knowing what day it is. He is getting really bad media coverage, in fact he is seen as a joke by many.
If all politics is local then it might still pay Labor to pay some attention to the Sunshine Coast. The Daily is normally a very conservative paper, but they are running stories quite (deservedly) critical of the lack of efort by their two Liberal MPs, Somylay and Slipper:
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2010/07/27/so-our-ageing-mps-are-pledging-some-real-action-no/
There are two issues that really need money there: the regional hospital at Kawana (there is currently no regional hospital except the Nambour base hospital, for an area witha population of 250,000 people) and the rail line from Beerwah to Maroochydrore via Caloundra. Both need real money (hospital $2B, rail line probably $500M).
ruawake
[Slipper has problems knowing what day it is. He is getting really bad media coverage, in fact he is seen as a joke by many.]
He IS a joke. I lived there for several years and he did nothing in the entire time. He inherited a very safe seat in an old national party stronghold with an 8% margin. By now Labor is winning some state seats in the area. Plus there has been a lot of growth and demographic change, so it is not the same people doing the voting. I would say that Fairfax and Fisher woudl have ben quite vulnerable on Rudd’s Dec 09 polls.
The Sunshine Coast would have to be the largest urban population in the country without a rail link or major hospital (population 312908 in 2008, plus up to 50,000 vicitors). It is already bigger than Darwin, Hobart or Geelong and closing fast on Canberra.
may still be.
Emerson to Brandis – “Break your habit and tell the truth for a change”.
[If all politics is local then it might still pay Labor to pay some attention to the Sunshine Coast]
Tanya Plibersek was in Fisher very recently announcing funding for low cost aged care housing. 🙂
[Itep. Your tips are pretty optimistic where Labor concerned.]
I’m trying optimism this election 🙂 Gives you a better night’s sleep.
I think Labor very well might receive a small swing to them in NSW and a bit of swing to them in Victoria and South Australia (without many seats changing either way). WA will be interesting and Labor might just squeak in in Canning (but it’s a bit of an ask). Queensland will be a mess I think and my ‘tips’ would look a lot more pessimistic if the competition included more Queensland seats. I think predictions of a 5 seat loss for Labor in Queensland might come true.
The lack of a sitting member might hurt the Coalition in a couple of NSW seats and Labor in a few Queensland seats. The return of Entsch might put Labor at risk in Leichardt.
My track record isn’t good with predictions though :p
Julia’s in QLD again today, so Labor’s private polling in that state can’t be all that terrific.
I think she needs to either do a campaign appearance with Rudd or give a firm committment that he’ll be Foreign Minister after the election.
Itep. I would agree that Victoria and South Australia may have a very slight gain, but more lightly the status quo. I don’t have a good understanding of Qld., but from what I have read and heard, it could well be a mess.
sorry I meant “likely” not lightly.
victoria, very slight gains in a couple of states could actually see Labor pick up one or two seats in those states. In McEwen, for instance the combination of the retirement of Fran Bailey and the ascension of Julia Gillard could help Labor get over the line. Further marginal seat polling would be very welcome 🙂
Itep. Based on your predictions, what is seat apportionment to each party?
I think…..status quo in VIC and SA(Labor perhaps might pick up an extra seat in VIC, like McEwen or La Trobe).
WA? Status quo result(best for Labor would be holding Hasluck and picking up Canning).
NSW(Labor definitely loses Robertson, and maybe loses Macquarie, but picks up Hughes or Macarthur, & narrowly retains the likes of Bennelong & Page).
TAS – Bass too close to call, Sid Sidebottom retains Braddon for the ALP.
QLD – Labor loses Flynn, Dawson, Leichhardt; wins Herbert by less than 100 votes; Dutton retains Dickson; Labor retains Bonner/Moreton/Petrie, big swing to Rudd in Griffith.
And, I’ll add to the above that Labor won’t win Gilmore either.
http://www.iia.net.au/index.php/component/content/article/49/847-2010-will-be-first-real-internet-policy-campaign.html
The Internet Industry Association are launching their Digital Economy Political Guide today. I suspect this won’t be all positive for the ALP.
I haven’t gone that far victoria 🙂 I was only looking at the seats in the tipping competition. Based solely on the predictions above I think it looks like a 2 seat gain for Labor. Once you factored in Queensland seats not included in the competition my prediction (at this stage) would probably be for a net seat loss overall, but not enough to lose Government.
What do you think about Brisbane evan? That one might be an interesting contest.
Speaking of Bowman, the Redland Times has come up with this ripsnorter of a quote.
[Ms Bishop said Dr Laming not being elevated after two terms was not surprising as she herself was not promoted until her fourth term.]
http://www.baysidebulletin.com.au/news/local/news/general/deputy-leader-hints-at-promotion-for-local-mp/1895488.aspx
Good to see the Oz covering all the big issues of the campaign. From their home page today:
[* LOBES: Ears a distraction from campaign
* THE LOOK: Julia moving her wardrobe forward
* FIRST BLOKE: No, Tim won’t be hitting the trail
* DESPATCH BOX: Gillard treads warily on Women’s Weekly]
[I’d like to make my tips a bit closer to August 21 ]
Me too.
OzPost Bank moving ahead, step by step 🙂
[AUSTRALIA Post has ambitious plans to become a player in the multi-billion-dollar domestic superannuation industry.
Chief executive Ahmed Fahour wants the government-owned agency to provide “back-office” services for the network of superannuation funds and members across the country as it expands its provision of financial services.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/auspost-eyes-super-role-as-services-expand/story-e6frg9h6-1225897218859
Ron @3
Yes, I agree the Greens should have suported it, even though it was pathetic and rewarded polluters. But the Greens were open to compromise with the ALP not bothering to approach them.
Not really the point though.
ALP needed 7 Senators to get it passed. So unless you cant count you are blaming the Greens for something they could do nothing about.
Fieding voted no. This means that it got voted down
When are people who say they pay attention to politics and parliament going to learn how to count?
And for the record, most Greens dont attack the Libs because the Libs are a lost cause. The ALP are supposed to(or used to anyway), be champion of a lot of the things the Greens stand for.
I thought the greens supported the environment – not just winners – must be someone else – like labor
After a dissasterous start, and what looked to be a trainwreck, I believe ALP has staled and lost that momentum after it’s clayton’s pollution poilicy and an average debate. The Asylum seekers was bad enough but glossed over.
That will make the predictions hard with the coalition gaining ground. People are saying that at least he’s having a go (Rabbot).
So here in Vic- I will say gain Mckewan, Lose Coorangimite, Latrobe- Lib retain, Deakin ALP Gain 0
NT- Solomon- Lib Gain -1
SA- same, same
WA- Canning gain, Hasluck retain +1
NSW-??? -2
QU-??? -5 to 6
Overall -7 to ALP
centaur009 The Libs have certainly gained momentum and are setting the agenda. Labor needs to get on the front foot. The media are already in the Libs corner.
[ALP needed 7 Senators to get it passed. So unless you cant count you are blaming the Greens for something they could do nothing about.
Fieding voted no. This means that it got voted down]
Two Lib senators voted for the CPRS. That means the bill would be passed with the support of the five Green senators.
Here are my completely unscientific tips:
Western Australia
Stirling (Liberal retain)
Hasluck (Liberal gain)
Swan (Liberal retain)
Tasmania
Bass (Labor retain)
New South Wales
Cowper (Nat retain)
Hughes (Labor gain)
Paterson (Labor gain)
Macarthur (Liberal retain)
Gilmore (Liberal retain)
Robertson (Liberal gain)
Macquarie (Liberal retain)
Queensland
Ryan (LNP retain)
Dickson (LNP gain)
Bowman (Labor gain)
Herbert (LNP retain)
Victoria
Corangamite (Liberal gain)
La Trobe (Liberal retain)
McEwen (Labor gain)
South Australia
Sturt (Liberal retain)
Northern Territory
Solomon (CLP gain)
Glen, it’s the Dickson LNP Gain that gives it away as unscientific.
Whoops thanks for pointing that out Steve I retrack I didnt read that electorate correctly.
Dickson should be (Labor gain).
i’ll need to go through the seat by seat margins to work out my full tips, but i’m predicting a Liberal win, and renewed plunge into darkness. But of course that is only my opinion. Most Australians will believe they have found the light.
I dont think Australians are getting enough of their prejudices represented by the Labor party. They tried them, but have decided they want an insular small minded nation who beats its chest and announces how great it is.
The Libs will win and it will be a very long reign.
MM
why so sad?
Yeah, MM why?
My daughter just informed me that Kevvie Rudd is in her Research building at the University of Qld right now.
Told her to say good day for me & wish him good luck.
[I dont think Australians are getting enough of their prejudices represented by the Labor party. They tried them, but have decided they want an insular small minded nation who beats its chest and announces how great it is.
The Libs will win and it will be a very long reign.]
Blimey, I think I must be on the wrong web site! I thought it was the Poll Bludger! 😉
[The PM is expected to announce a mental health policy today…]
Ah ha. Poor Tone.
Ru
she’s scheduling him?