Crikey is running a tipping competition in which participants are asked to pick winners in 20 selected marginal seats (and also nominate the precise margin in Bowman as a tie-breaker). Not only is there a $5000 prize on offer, it also gives us a chance to measure the collective wisdom in these matters of the Crikey readership. It also means you get a first glimpse of my much-delayed election guide, with entries now available for the 20 seats in question. The whole thing will follow in reasonably short order (promise).
In other news, The Australian have provided us with attitudinal polling from the latest Newspoll. This finds “leadership” and industrial relations have increased in salience as importance issues since February; that the Coalition has solid leads on national security, asylum seekers and a number of economic measures, while Labor is streets ahead on health, education and industrial relations. It should be noted that Newspoll is increasing its sample sizes for the rest of the campaign starting with this latest survey, from about 1100 to 1700, although it seems only the normal sample’s worth of respondents were asked the supplementary questions published today.
[she’s scheduling him?]
Yep. Along with Duton.
Dave @35
You say that the Libs are a lost cause but Greens constantly attacking Labor only helps Libs and there is a real danger that the Libs will get in. So then as your leader has said he will be happy to deal with a Lib government who only thrives on fear – fear of boat people, fear of refugees, fear of big Australia, fear of deficits therefore they dont spend on essential items like infrastructure and social services. For the first time in 15 years, pensioners have got a real weekly pension increase and has the caring Greens ever acknowledged that – NO. And the NBN – I have never heard anything positive about these things. You agree with these things but you dont atriculate the positives, you just harp on with the negatives. You have become a mini Lib. I am not a Green hater – I voted for them in the last 3 elections but am I disappointed with them.
And be completely honest to all of us – if the Libs get into Government, tell me from 0% to 100% what chance has your climate policy got? From your heart, please give me an answer to this one.
middle man, don’t blame the people. If Labor loses it’ll be because they didn’t manage their time in Government well enough (or the campaign). I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised however. Don’t let a couple of ‘bad’ polls scare you too much.
Gusface. Its just a feeling i get…. i’m not sure the great bulk of people who don’t have the interest or curiosity to seek out further information than that delivered by MSM, can be expected to see the choice in any other light.
and that’s not intended to denigrate those without an interest in politics and policy. they have usually very worthy pursuits to better fill their time… work, children, LIFE!
but watching this campaign unfold is actually proving who really won the culture wars. Gillards strategy is heavily influenced by how it is dealt with by the media, and as a result so many things are off the agenda. it’s an awful thing to watch a society become so fearful of constant stream of false demons and bogeymen.
MM
keep the faith and keep spreading the word
peeps are surprisingly engaged and with the geordian knot of workchoices hanging around the libs neck,I reckon self protection will gazump fear and prejudice
Kevin Rudd has dumped the word ‘Labor’ from campaign material. What a sore loser.
In other news Gillard has confirmed Swan will stay on as Treasurer if Labor win Government at the election but no other ministers are guaranteed to stay in their portfolios.
adam abdool,
[You say that the Libs are a lost cause but Greens constantly attacking Labor only helps Libs and there is a real danger that the Libs will get in.]
I don’t think Christine Milne’s effort on Q&A last night gained one single vote for the Greens, but sure as hell swung a few over to the Libs.
It was a truly awful performance.
Itep. i not blaming the “people” per se. I’m not one of those that hates his fellow country men and women, and thinks them morons. I think they have every reason to be dis-engaged from politics, to be so cynical… but i hate what then follows.. which is a form of politics that is so low brow and cynical that it debases us all.
[but sure as hell swung a few over to the Libs.]
Malcolm gave a polished performance I thought Scorp.
Shame he doesnt have more of a profile in this campaign the Libs could use him well I reckon.
Middle man don’t forget that 99% of this stuff is aimed at swinging voters in marginal seats and is never intended for consumption by anyone else. Unless you fall into that category, elections are largely irrelevant.
ruawake. That’s good to hear. Do you know when? I have been somewhat concerned about mental health, and Labor has been lacking to date in this area.
[Don’t let a couple of ‘bad’ polls scare you too much.]
when have they been recently
[ruawake. That’s good to hear. Do you know when?]
Right now, 🙂
Differnt sort of “tipping point” in today’s SMH
[Each big inflation – whether the early 1920s in Germany, or the Korean and Vietnam wars in the US – starts with a passive expansion of the quantity of money. This sits inert for a surprisingly long time. Asset prices may go up, but latent price inflation is disguised. The effect is much like lighter fuel on a camp fire before the match is struck.
People’s willingness to hold money can change suddenly for a ”psychological and spontaneous reason”, causing a spike in the velocity of money. The shift invariably catches economists by surprise. They wait too long to drain the excess money.
”Velocity took an almost right-angle turn upward in the summer of 1922,” said Jens Parsson, the book’s author. Reichsbank officials were baffled. They could not fathom why the German people had started to behave differently almost two years after the bank had already boosted the money supply. Parsson contends that patience snapped abruptly once people lost trust and began to ”smell a government rat”.
Some might smile at the Bank of England’s ”surprise” at the recent jump in inflation. Across the Atlantic, US Federal Reserve critics say the rise in the US monetary base from $US871 billion to $US2.02 trillion in just two years is an incendiary pyre that will ignite as soon as US money velocity returns to normal.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/ghosts-of-inflations-past-scare-bank-elite-20100726-10sll.html
[Malcolm gave a polished performance I thought Scorp.]
I only caught the end of q&a (I assume that is what you are referring to) but from what I saw, the only reason he was able to perform like he did was cos he was not tethered to Abbott’s inconsistencies and sloganeering. He was clearly setting out a stall for the post-election leadership. Each time he was asked a policy question he began his answer with something like: ‘here’s what I think/I understand of the issue…’
[no other ministers are guaranteed to stay in their portfolios.]
Gotta make room for the coup leaders! 😉
Glen. i thought he went ok too. I loev watching Malcolm. He would be a lousy poker player. he is very obvious when is saying something he doesnt believe in. watch him next time. when he is talking about something he believes in he is very eloquent and reserved and measured in his language. as soon as he moves to political mode and starts talking something down just cos the government did it, his language becomes rather panto-ish… and its just not him at all. since i’ve worked it out it gives me a giggle when i see him slip into that language.
he is a best as a positive politician rather than an oppose for the sake of opposing type.
mm
If truth be told. I share some of your concerns. Especially over the past few days. As stated earlier, the Libs have gained momentum, especially with the support of our beloved Media.
We just have to trust that people are more sophisticated and are critical thinkers, and look beyond the fear. The Libs have certainly taken their cue from the Republicans in the US. We trust that their appeal is not widespread.
[Gotta make room for the coup leaders!]
I suppose it’s too much to hope that Arbib will get booted to the backbench.
agree with you, Scorpio.
So far, Christine, Sarah (Greens) and Julie Bishop were awful – I think Julie was the worse. The guy from Spectator yesterday behaved like an absolute moron and I think he is an editor of that paper.
It was also scary to see at one stage how all the other panelists except Richo were attacking PW.
It was also good to see Richo dishing it out in a very clinical way.
Doesn’T Middle man see the polls
essential 55/45 and newspoll not as good as the frotnight before and should of been better if william had
rounded it up like socrates did.
You sound very depressed, go back 6 week or even a month i was feeling that way then.
the galaxy poll is the odd one out, But i think some where there is a average you can go to to see all the polls and average it out.
some may like to do it for MIDDLE MAN
[Kevin Rudd has dumped the word ‘Labor’ from campaign material. What a sore loser.]
I think Rudd has been remarkably restrained under the circumstances. Remember the reactions of Latham or even Hayden (drovers dog…) to being dumped. By comparison Rudd has kept remarkably silent. Realistically, that is all the coup plotters should have expected when they made their move.
Labor may be able to score a run or two on the Liberals PPL policy stuff-up. It doesn’t even really make sense. Why must fathers be paid the mothers’ wage?
Socrates, and Beazley’s reaction to being dumped was to get right behind the new leader. He showed true class. He didn’t refuse to speak the new leaders’ name publicly or any other garbage.
middle man,
[I think they have every reason to be dis-engaged from politics, to be so cynical… but i hate what then follows.. which is a form of politics that is so low brow and cynical that it debases us all.]
Compared with the US, ours is positively a model of perfection! 😉
I’ve seen them my say. as they say in my industry “past performance as no indication of future performance”. i’ll feel better if i see some marginal seat polling. my gut tells me the 55/45 or th e52/48 isn’t an across the board result, and that it will be “lumpy”.
agree with you, Scorpio.
[So far, Christine, Sarah (Greens) and Julie Bishop were awful – I think Julie was the worse. The guy from Spectator yesterday behaved like an absolute moron and I think he is an editor of that paper.
It was also scary to see at one stage how all the other panelists except Richo were attacking PW.
It was also good to see Richo dishing it out in a very clinical way.]
I have decided never to watch these programs after all their audience is very small and it would be the same people every week who watch it.
dont watch their shows and give them rating and hopefully they will disappear
i am even tipping the 24/ 7 will not last , and i hope it doesn’t the abc should be spending more money on good drama who cares about the news really.
Nothing we can do about it in other countries etc. I use to be a great news watcher
till i realised it was effecting my health.
I think one feel much better for not watching those programmes
after all its only their opinion so who cares the same as this is only my opinion
and other s will say nonsense we should watch the news.
[i’ll feel better if i see some marginal seat polling.]
All the marginal seat polling so far has been very encouraging for Labor (with the exception of Gilmore).
i must of missed it Itep. thats good news.
as for Rudd. i’ve seen him around my suburb the last few days. he looks very happy and smiling. in good form i’d say.
adam abdool,
[The guy from Spectator yesterday behaved like an absolute moron and I think he is an editor of that paper.]
I loved Rich’s comment about him talking a steaming mountain of shit.
Very apt in the circumstances. It’s funny how these media morons get exposed for the overblown pretenders that they really are on shows such as this and other forums.
Gillard has just announced $277m for suicide prevention. As she’s speaking, her twitter feed is sending out key points from the speech:
JuliaGillard: We will boost frontline services in communities for people at greatest risk of suicide in our community
JuliaGillard: We will give priority to men – who we know are often at greater risk and less likely to seek help
JuliaGillard: We will promote resilience and good mental health for both our young children and our young people
She says comprehensive health reform is the starting point for better mental health services, and promises that the issue will be a prioirty for her government if re-elected.
Ltep,
You were pretty woeful during the last election campaign, but your really excelling that standard this time! 😉
middle man, marginal seat polling I believe put Labor in front in Petrie and Bowman, tied in Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland. A separate poll put Labor well in front in Eden Monaro. Another put Labor fractionally ahead in Canning, and with quite a good lead in Hasluck, but behind in Swan and Cowan. Earlier polls put Labor in good standing in Corrangamite (55/45). Another puts Labor miles ahead in Kingston. If Labor manage to hold any of these seats and win some they don’t currently hold it makes the Coalition’s task that much harder. Of course Labor will need to start getting on the front foot in the campaign as they appear to be getting bogged down currently.
Scorpio, he is much more mature this time around.
Thanks scorpio. I try and outdo myself where possible. My confidence for Labor’s chances should be of concern to all.
[I suppose it’s too much to hope that Arbib will get booted to the backbench.]
He’s been hopeless in question time whenever I’ve seen him. He must have other talents to have become such an influential figure in the ALP.
interesting. hopefully this announcement today will get them moving again. they need to start setting the agenda.
ruawake. Thanks for the mental health policy update.
Bishop and Morrison have just met with some rep. from Nauru regarding processing centre. Apparently, Nauru happy to have centre there.
Wow, we should be so pleased. We will all now go out and vote for the Libs.
adam abdool,
[It was also scary to see at one stage how all the other panelists except Richo were attacking PW.]
Yeah, even Tony Jones was trying to interrupt her all the time when she was trying to answer a question directed at her and it looked like deliberate attempts to sabotage her answers.
Christine Milne is an ignorant cow. She was talking over the top and rudely interrupting PW every time she was making a good point that didn’t fit the Greens narrative.
I can’t stand a bar of her and she is little different in the Senate also.
[He’s been hopeless in question time whenever I’ve seen him. He must have other talents to have become such an influential figure in the ALP.]
Well you would think so. But once you sit through a speech by Don Farrell you’ll be even more perplexed.
[Thanks scorpio. I try and outdo myself where possible.]
I put your improved attitude down to the influence or Larouche.
[He’s been hopeless in question time whenever I’ve seen him.]
Same with interviews. He just looks insincere and out of his depth.
[Kevin Rudd has dumped the word ‘Labor’ from campaign material. What a sore loser.]
Is there a link for this?
middle man,
[interesting. hopefully this announcement today will get them moving again. they need to start setting the agenda. ]
You can bet your life that every time Labor gets “any” positive movement, that the MSM will do everything in its power to try and derail or play down it and promote the woeful Libs position.
Victoria they’ve got a deal…does Jooles have one with East Timor I dont think so LoL!
“Socrates, and Beazley’s reaction to being dumped was to get right behind the new leader. He showed true class. He didn’t refuse to speak the new leaders’ name publicly or any other garbage.”
And Rudd has shown true class following his dumping by the party give the guy a break. Put yourself in his position he has been publicly humilitated. He has decided to pick himself up of the floor and fight on and rebuild his career and you are picking on him for not saying someone’s name.
Glen. If Labor wanted a deal with Nauru, they would have got one. The point is they don’t want to deal with Nauru for several reasons.
It is true, the Libs are going backwards. Their policies stink!!
A deal until election day ,Glen. WhooHoo what genei!.
[Kevin Rudd has dumped the word ‘Labor’ from campaign material. What a sore loser.]
My brother is in his electorate and has seen no sign of this.
Proof, other than a desire to smear the Ruddster, may be required! 😉
steve. Good point. Bishop and Morrison are just spouting a “steaming mountain of shit”.
(Thanks to Richo for the quote!)