The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.
UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.
Further polling factoids:
• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.
• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.
Glen,
Before you get going again, I’ve a small present for you from onlinethesaurus.com. A lot of them are duds, of course- but there’s enough for a good few posts even so!
63 words for “gutless”: anemic, asthenic, bloodless, chicken, coward, cowardly, craven, debilitated, drooping, droopy, dull, effete, etiolated, faint, faintish, feeble, flabby, flaccid, floppy, gone, gritless, heartless, imbecile, impotent, languid, languorous, lily-livered, limber, limp, listless, lustless, marrowless, nerveless, pithless, pluckless, poltroonish, pooped, powerless, pusillanimous, rubbery, sapless, sinewless, slack, soft, spineless, spiritless, spunkless, strengthless, uncourageous, undaring, ungallant, unhardened, unheroic, unintrepid, unmanly, unnerved, unsoldierlike, unsoldierly, unstrung, unvaliant, unvalorous, weak, weakly.
Scorpio. Interesting perspective, thanks.
I asked at the start of the day whether howie ever had a proxy and was hyacinth ever part of the NSC meetings?
anyone?
Thanks for the responses people. So, the 67/33 poll is certainly not aways out there.
Oh dear, more bad news for Tones 🙂
[So perhaps Morrison/Hunt and who knows for the Nationals?]
Both are very hard workers and have been politically effective. Morrisons values are clear and probably pretty palatable electorally. Hunt shed his values to be politically effective.
Who are the Nationals?
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451 scorpio
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 2:44 pm | Permalink
My say,
Are you still on line?]]
am now
It gave Rudd the kick up the pants he sorely needed and reminded him he is not bigger than the party.
Sure and we are back to my original point that Rudd should learn from this and maybe he will come back from this one day. you say it is an ice blocks chance in hell I say nothing is guaranteed. So we will see. In the meantime he is standing as the member for Griffith and Gilliard will need to give him a senior front bench role in the next govt otherwise he will cause all types of mischief on the back bench. It is better to keep your enemies closer. Gilliard has shown she is as much of a spin doctor as Rudd and also able to be classified as all talk and no action. given the complete lack of talent in the Liberal party I suspect the main focus of the media will be Rudd vs Gilliard over the next 3 yrs. enjoy.
I see the usual “let’s introduce the ETS now and stuff the political consequences” lot are here again. If only it were that simple.
geezlouise,
[Scorpio, generally agree with your remarks regarding battlers and their relationship with the media ]
They’re the segment that will determine who wins this election and anyone who forgets that or doesn’t give it credence, is lible to be rudely shocked come election night.
The next Lib leader will be from NSW or Vic. Who it is? Who cares.
“Liable!” Damn.
Blue-green
[Who are the Nationals?]
small, smelly thing in the corner , yells a lot when i doesn’t get its way, rolls over and has its tummy tickled by its big brother at election time.
Blue_Green Mal Washer is past his used by date and a seat warmer. I hope he quits soon.
Truthy should apply for the Citizens Assembly.
Worthy moderates who should be in the shadow cabinet include…
Bruce Billson
Michael Keenan
Steven Ciobo
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 2:28 pm | Permalink
[“my say,
I said before, Rudd never ever intended to take any real action on climate change.” ]
why have i been in cluded in this ron all i said was what a good post you wrote
and told the above to read your post I think it was him who ever it was said
” go Greens” once again i agreed with you. shall hide next time i see one your posts.
lol lol lol
Can someone explain to me why getting a concensus on a carbon tax is bad and don’t tell me we already have one because we don’t. That is plain to see.
Do not understand this continue of knocking Kevin Rudd , he defeated Howard and was our Labor PM & a key player in wonderful “core left Reforms” deliverd in last 2.5 years
His poll numbers dropped mainly over CC deferral & Govt lost its way on a few issues , so labor was at geat risk of losing even on public marginal seat poling records , so he got replaced
Straight forward to me , so no need to assasinate a character becaues for all his alleged faults he’d still be PM today IF poling was not so dire
So this character bit is an aside only , he had faults we all do , he a 24/7 workaholic and he ran kitchen cabinet of 4 & was bossy (well alot of PM’s fall into that Group) , but all that character stuff does is simply explain WHY QUICKNESS of th change was so ready suported by Caucus overnite , nothing more…but not a reason as to ‘why’ he was changed which was indeed polls , this is politcs simple …get re-elected or sit in opposition twiddling
as to better goveranse re full cabinet and more Hawkie like with MP’s , that perhaps is indeed true but simply an argy for why things could hav been better ( but we should not forgot for 2 yaers polisys were done pretty well in implementin anyway This is why I find what is now a MSN inspired assasination of Rudds character so disgusting
But Kers…
The word gutless cannot be beat 😀
I’d be gutless if I were to stop saying gutless on PB.
😀
[given the complete lack of talent in the Liberal party I suspect the main focus of the media will be Rudd vs Gilliard over the next 3 yrs. enjoy.]
Spot on.
[my say
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 3:32 pm | Permalink
Joe]
i decided on joe i felt he was less opposition than malcolm
Ron have you seen my above ????
Glen,
Then we’re all as stuck as Major Major Major Major was!
I keep telling you Joe Hockey doesnt want it.
Malcolm does and he only needs 2 votes or so to snatch it.
Although I totally understand the need to build consensus, especially on climate change (if thats possible), but I am really struggling with this idea of a citizens assembly. 🙁
Belinda Neal says her “loyalty lies with Robertson.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/23/2962601.htm?section=justin
[along by K-Rudd’s office but the former PM refused to answer any questions. Silence can send a pretty loud message]
isnt it funny the way people see things I saw this as being loyal he does not want to talk to the press end of story,
[citizens assembly]
We have Gillard’s first Medicare Gold moment of the election 😀
Maybe the citizens’ assembly could also handle civil defence.
has there be a morgan to day re pp
I think Poll Bludger should definitely have a representative on the citizen’s assembly, as long as it is not one of those rabid greenies.
On a side note, should citizens assembly be with or without the apostrophe?
[hanks for the responses people. So, the 67/33 poll is certainly not aways out there.
Oh dear, more bad news for Tones ]
what was this about
Wongster on Sky soon. 🙂
question on the apostrophe appears to have been answered in Kersebleptes post. forgive me, I was educated in the 70s.
[Worthy moderates who should be in the shadow cabinet include…
…
Michael Keenan]
On WorkChoices Keenan is as radical as Howard, Costello, Abbott, Minchin, Abetz, Andrews etc.
my say, there might be a Morgan poll reported on the Seven news tonight.
The 63/37 poll reference is a reference to the Kingston Advertiser poll. Possum has stated that there’s no reason to believe the poll is dodgy.
It’s the heading of this thread, My say.
399…..fredn…..briefly, ……. stop pissing of the voters that had a lot of time for him.]
Do you really think the interactions on this site will change even one vote? That is one of the less likely propositions I have read lately.
I am aware my views about Kev are considered to be heretical by some. But I think the idea that he could be given an important post like FM as a consolation prize is just dopey.
To be clear, I have no personal animosity towards Kev. I merely think that if he wants to better serve the ALP, the Government and the country, he should get another job. While he remains in politics, he will be either a distraction or an embarrassment or a source of tension or all three. Can you name another former PM that has stayed on in Parliament after losing office? Not one since Billy Hughes, and he was a true exception in every possible way.
Anyway, enough keystrokes have been expended on this subject.
geezlouise:
It depends on whether it is an assembly of citizens, or an assembly belonging to citizens.
Either way, it’s a completely worthless idea, so I’d be happy to see Troothy as a member of such a body.
[Can you name another former PM that has stayed on in Parliament after losing office? ]
John Gorton, Billy McMahon and Gough Whitlam.
[On WorkChoices Keenan is as radical as Howard, Costello, Abbott, Minchin, Abetz, Andrews etc.]
Where is your proof?
You have none!
Keenan wouldnt have put his foot in like Erica. Also Keenan is a moderate. He supported Turnbull.
Cuppa just chill they’re not bring back Workchoices. They arent that stupid, I mean they’re stupid but they’re not mentally challenged.
“Although I totally understand the need to build consensus, especially on climate change (if thats possible), but I am really struggling with this idea of a citizens assembly. ”
It’s all a big fraud and just a mechanism to defer and continue the discussion so that a global ETS can be bedded down then Aust will just fall into line.
Fat Cat for the Citizens Assembly.
My say,
I told Mrs Scorpio about your interest and expertise in quilting. She is also a quilter and would like to get in touch with you to discuss some of your experiences especially with sourcing material etc.
If William sends you my e-mail address, would you be willing to have a chat with Mrs Scorpio regarding your quilting experiences?
Billy Hughes (little digger)
Stanley Melbourne Bruce.
[I keep telling you Joe Hockey doesnt want it.
Malcolm does and he only needs 2 votes or so to snatch it.]
The Anti-Tony forces can easily muster the two votes but I am not sure they will do so for Malcolm
Chris the Toolman standing by his story 100% re Rudd and the NSC on ABC 24.
Surprise surprise.
my say
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Permalink
“why have i been in cluded in this ron all i said was what a good post (405) you wrote”
sorry My Say , 2nd time I done that
I was copy pasting tht loo loo Green nutters post that was addressed to YOU , and I should hav deleted your good name from HIS words
‘MWT’ nutter said a lie that Kevin rudd never intended to address Climate change !
so wanted to zip and zap him to expose that untruth
StephenD:
It appears to be both an assembly of, and belonging to, the citizens.
It could be very interesting to see Troothy in such an assembly however I am unsure as to the contribution a never ending discussion about boat people could have to the issue of climate change. Anyway, I thought the considerate thing to do when you have a cold was to stay at home, not take it to work so you could share at around!
[Chris the Toolman standing by his story 100% re Rudd and the NSC on ABC 24.]
Uhlmann’s story is correct, his interpretation is the bit that is contested. Slime.
I’m afraid I don’t get this citizen’s assembly on climate change policy. All it does is give the opposition ammo for a repeat of Rudd’s “Gathering of the 1000 Celebrities” or whatever it was called – all hot air and nothing to show for it.
Who will be on this panel? The usual “famous” Australians? Fred Bloggs from Hicksville? (Sorry Fred, you probably have as intelligent an opinion as Cate Blanchette or the winner of Masterchef.)
Much as I hate to agree with Abbott it does look as if she is simply postponing the issue rather than showing some leadership. I was really hoping for something revolutionary but sheesh – another bloody think tank! Thank goodness I’m at an age where I will probably be out of it by the time CC really bites because neither major party is coming up with anything tangible and I can’t for the life of me understand it.
Phoney in WA just declared that he will be the next Prime Minister – you’d never accuse Abbott of a lack of confidence. 😆