Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face

As expected, Morgan has come good on voting intetion results from the phone poll for which a teaser was offered yesterday, and it shows Labor opening up a commanding 55.5-44.5 two-party lead. Morgan has also published a similar result from its routine weekend face-to-face polling, which has Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 the previous week. Labor traditionally does better from Morgan’s face-to-face polling, so either there’s some statistical noise here or Labor has gained ground in the first week of the campaign. On the face-to-face poll, Labor leads 44.5 per cent (up 4 per cent) to 39.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent) on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent). On the phone poll, the figures are 44 per cent for Labor, 38.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The samples were 719 for the phone poll and 871 for the face-to-face, with respective margins of error of about 3.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

UPDATE: Via Twitter via Frank Calabrese in comments, we learn of an Illawarra Mercury poll showing the Liberals well ahead in their marginal south coast NSW seat of Gilmore. Past experience suggests this will be an IRIS poll with a small sample of 300 and a big margin of error of 7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face”

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  1. I’m wondering if Sturt might be a chance of shifting to Labor.

    Are there any South Aussies tuned in at the moment who can comment?

  2. [I’m wondering if Sturt might be a chance of shifting to Labor.

    Are there any South Aussies tuned in at the moment who can comment?]

    There is a really good chance of that happening.

  3. Sure is.

    Will be happy to see the back of Whiney Pyney.

    Although he’ll probably recontest it in 2013, if he doesn’t go for Senate preselection (which I think will be his next port of call)

  4. [I’m wondering if Sturt might be a chance of shifting to Labor.

    Are there any South Aussies tuned in at the moment who can comment?]

    Darn, go to possums blog (here) and look at post # 38 — about Sturt

  5. Aussies all out for 349.

    Giving the Pakistanis a target of just 180 and 2 days, 1 session in which to achieve it.

    The one bit of solace one can take from it, is that in Sydney last summer, they chased a smaller target and still got beaten, so we could still win.

  6. Hmm,

    But another Greens source said the preference deal was a strategic move that was done when the party already knew Labor was going to delay a decision on carbon price.

    ‘‘It’s strategically in the party’s interests to have that arrangement locked in, but it also aligns with the fact that on the policy we’re campaigning on there’s a very marginal difference between the parties … It was reasonably clear that we wouldn’t have a price on carbon prior to the preference arrangement. That’s not to say we’re not angry.’’ 

  7. [Aussies all out for 349]

    I’m reasonably happy with that. They didn’t look like getting anywhere near that many earlier in the day

  8. Plugged what there was of those Nielsen figures into Anthony Greens state by state election calculator. Making a couple of assumptions (particularly if ther is a swing on in SA) things look ok for the ALP, EVEN with a 46/54 result in WA and QLD.

    I reckon that the ALP will do better than that in WA though if Canning is in play.

    Interesting times. Bad ones for Abboot though. 🙂

  9. Whats the difference between a Gobfest and a Gabfest?

    And why is ABC News constantly referring to it as a Gobfest?

    ABC can’t be that stupid.

  10. [Whats the difference between a Gobfest and a Gabfest?]

    Maybe the GOBfest is a reference to the character from Arrested Development?

  11. [I’m reasonably happy with that. They didn’t look like getting anywhere near that many earlier in the day]

    Plus only twice has there been a successful chase over 180 at the ground.

  12. jenauthor – you certainly know your cricket.

    BTW I tried to find that reference you mentioned for Possum, without success. Do you have a link?

  13. Sorry Darn, have close that up, but it when i rereferd to Poss’s page for the current numbers in the HOR it seemd that the ALP was only down one or two overall.

    Be interesting to see some state polling for NSW??

  14. If it’s 54/46 overall and 46/54 in Qld — difference 8 points.

    If it is 56/44 Vic — that still means a number of points can be tacked onto other states to make the average 54/46.

    SA? NSW? WA? I wish they’d given the break down for all states, not just a couple.

  15. Not sure how reliable it is since the poster said Kingston — when Pyne is Sturt — but here ’tis.

    [In Kingston in 2007,the Australian Friends of Palestine…a quite well organised and multi-ethnic group ran a campaign against Pyne who has been a passionate zionist,recently visited Israel and is secretary of the Friends of Israel in Canberra.

    The electorate was widely canvassed and some excellent leaflets were distribuited
    Since than the organisation has grown in numbers and has decided to campaign again,and since the Gaza Flotilla massacre they have gained much more support,given Israel has fewer friends than ever
    Pyne is a strident Friend of Israel and while nobody knows how effective the last campaign really was in pulling down Pyne’s vote last time…there is no doubt he will be worried. this time… It will be interesting to see if he zionist friends come to the rescue…if the swing is one against the Liberals this will be the first seat to fall]

    Not sure how reliable it is since the poster said Kingston — when Pyne is Sturt — but here ’tis.

  16. Stephen Spencer sspencer_63

    Nielsen says ALP trails 46-54 in WA (-0.5% on last election) & Qld (-3.5%). Would see loss of 7 seats, but offset by gains in other states 3 minutes ago via web

  17. Ben Raue’s site, “The Tally Room”, has a detailed analysis of most seats and by accessing his pendulum you can see which seats are marginal in each state.
    The site is on the sidebar at Pollytics.

  18. [Be interesting to see some state polling for NSW]

    It certainly would. I reckon if QLD is 46-54 Labor must be going ok in NSW.

  19. AM going to bed now — while I am a cricket tragic — I am also the world’s biggest mock … so if I don’t watch, our chances of winning will be better!

  20. Anthony’s calculator is an interesting toy.

    I put in: (relative to ALP)

    NSW: -1.0%
    VIC: +1.0%
    QLD: -4.4%
    W.A: -0.7%
    SA: +1.0%
    TAS, ACT, NT: -1.0%

    Assume the indies in the HOR will support the Libs:

    And the ALP wins 76 / 74 seats.

    Now i think that on current polling that is pretty conservative.

    And even being Sooooo pesimistic as to be i think unrealistic, Pyne still loses his seat!! 🙂

  21. Tassie will most certainly be up in support. Unfortunately there are no other HoR seats to gain. However, we may be able to get a seat off the Libs…

  22. Truthy from previous thread (and yes, I am about half a day behind):

    [Yes i talked to a lady whose sister was working out in a remote Aboriginal community.

    This community does not have access to mains power because of it’s remoteness.

    Anyways, each year you can put a request in to the state government for school supplies. She rang up and being a remote community requested a dozen live chooks to teach these Aboriginal students some life skills(like looking after livestock for food).

    The State Bueracracy said NO, she couldn’t have half a dozen chooks… but she could have some nice brand spanking new computers for their powerless school. A few more calls were made, and the same offer extended… no chooks, but they could have some computers. Finally the teacher relented… okay send us some computers.

    So the teacher recieved several thousand dollars worth of computer equipment, sold them off at a hugely discounted price and bought some chooks with the money.

    Ahhh… Bueracracy in action!]

    I coud not leave this outrageous lie uncommented upon.

    Any school property – whether equipment, furniture or whatever – is the property of the Education Department. No school is allowed to sell that property without approval from the department. Had any school worker done what you have suggested they have done, they would have incurred some serious disciplinary action.

    Either the worker is lying, the sister is lying, or you just made it up.

  23. Chinda, this nonsense was the subject of a Liberal supporters’ Email I received about two weeks ago. I deleted it at the time.

    It’s just another example of Troofy’s standards of troofulness.

  24. [So someone else who actually cares about the problem should be given a go.]

    There is a party that wants to take swift and tough action… The Greens. If they get the votes to form Government they can do it. Vote Greens.

  25. Of course, the upcoming 2010 Australian Elections is topping the list of being the most talked about in the world of Social Media. July 25th, 2010’s highlight was the debate. It definitely was the most watched event on Australian Television (or was it the Master Chef finals? LOL). All Australians definitely had a thing or two to say about it. Who did most Australians favor? At this point, who is the choice of majority of Australian voting population? What is it that Australians are looking for in their next Prime Minister? Whose platform and social reform agenda has more significance in today’s society? These are just some questions most Australians want to know, or at least be given an idea on. Well, I do have my personal bet. Who? Well, your guess is as good as mine. LOL

    These questions present an ongoing intense curiosity by the public. They are eager to find out how everyone thinks about the elections, particularly on the debate collectively. I, with the PeopleBrowsr Team have come up with an in depth and thorough study presenting real time and actual sentiments using one of the most popular Social Media Channel- Twitter. In this study, PeopleBrowsr measured over 34,000 tweets analyzing the debate. In the report, one will also be able to see actual tweets from respondents capturing emotions at its most raw state. To see the entirety of the study, please visit Go and have a look and be amazed with what we found out on the study!

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