As expected, Morgan has come good on voting intetion results from the phone poll for which a teaser was offered yesterday, and it shows Labor opening up a commanding 55.5-44.5 two-party lead. Morgan has also published a similar result from its routine weekend face-to-face polling, which has Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 the previous week. Labor traditionally does better from Morgan’s face-to-face polling, so either there’s some statistical noise here or Labor has gained ground in the first week of the campaign. On the face-to-face poll, Labor leads 44.5 per cent (up 4 per cent) to 39.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent) on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent). On the phone poll, the figures are 44 per cent for Labor, 38.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The samples were 719 for the phone poll and 871 for the face-to-face, with respective margins of error of about 3.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent.
UPDATE: Via Twitter via Frank Calabrese in comments, we learn of an Illawarra Mercury poll showing the Liberals well ahead in their marginal south coast NSW seat of Gilmore. Past experience suggests this will be an IRIS poll with a small sample of 300 and a big margin of error of 7 per cent.
FS dont misrepresent him!
He said he had an ‘enterprise’ background from an early age!
Boerwar, that’s why I thought it might be a better strategy to have a formally. gov’t endorsed scientific panel to squash the idiotic pronouncements of the Bolt and Moncton types. It annoys me very much that we have to go through this, but I suspect if people in Australia are going to be convinced to give up their stupid surf sky thingies, we probably have to do it.
I’m still a pessimist, though, and think the pine bark beetles stand a better chance than do humans.
Boothby would have probably fallen in 2007 if it wasn’t for Cornes. If the Kingston figures are even slightly representative then it could easily fall this time. Southcott is useless.
Night all
*time to go and listen to some more Pride and Prejudice on the nano*
[*time to go and listen to some more Pride and Prejudice on the nano*]
I have some Dan Brown books on my iPod.
[Speaking of Fielding, has he returned from fixing Afghanistan yet?]
If he was on a fact-finding mission (like when he went to NY about CC) he’ll come back and tell us we should be backing the Taliban because they’ve convinced him they’re democrats!
HSO
I am a bit concerned that it might be getting too hot for bark beetles.
There has been some funny footage of people trying to cross roads and getting their thongs stuck in melted tarmac.
*Lizzie calls, sigh*
[Boothby would have probably fallen in 2007 if it wasn’t for Cornes.]
How very true. One of my best friends had the misfortune of working for her campaign. It was basically a case of the Labor candidate being “Kevin 4 PM” rather than her.
Because he trapped rabbits as a kid!
Maybe he thinks we’re all bunnies, like the ABC who broadcast this nonsense in the belief it was helping him.
[Because he trapped rabbits as a kid!]
Makes him sound more like a serial killer than an entrepreneur if you ask me…
Rabbits, Pebbles, not Rabbots.
Just read a very interesting post on Possum’s Kingston Blog (#38) about Sturt.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mean to slander him (or libel rather). It”s just bragging about trapping rabbits (as necessary as it may be) sounds like you take the delight in harming cute animals.
We’ll, to be fair, we all like to do it Pebbles. Look at the way Julia is tormenting Tony.
(As necessary as it may be.)
Abbott’s not a cute animal. He’s more like a naked mole rat:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_mole_rat
Gus
Coke is it!
And I am so looking forward to the debate that may change the campaign. Sniggle.
Today’s Morgan whacked into Antony’s Calculator 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=2.8999984741210936&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
Looks like there was a bit more to the Labor candidate in Flinders pulling out than a car accident!
[LABOR’S controversial candidate for Flinders, Adrian Schonfelder, has stepped down only days after being exposed as a former member of the Liberal Party.
Mr Schonfelder upset Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s first week of campaigning, saying Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s promotion of conservative and religious views for driving people to suicide.
After coping heavy criticism and going to ground, Mr Schonfelder resigned claiming a car accident meant he would be unable to work full-time on the campaign.
Mr Abbot had called for Ms Gillard to disendorse the candidate.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/controversial-alp-candidate-for-flinders-adrian-schonfelder-stands-down/story-e6frf7l6-1225896313581
“The ALP: party of grown-ups, not petulant, attention-seeking, children.”
Sorry Pebbles, focus group found that one a bit boring. Plus it kinda means something.
I’m off! night all.
One man’s naked mole rat is another man’s ET.
Actually, I haven’t yet made up ny mind whether Tony more closely resembles a naked mole rat or ET.
It depends on whether or not he’s wearing his speedos I suppose.
TSOP
I didnt hear him say he enjoyed killing rabbits.
I heard him say he got a taste of enterprise and reward for effort ($).
Typical rubbish from the rabid left on PB.
I always expect more civility from you lot and you let me down time and time again!
*takes batteries out*
For those in the know did the ALP have any chance of picking up Flinders?
[“The ALP: party of grown-ups, not petulant, attention-seeking, children.”]
Who like spending money like drunken sailors at a brothel
Fulvio Sammut@723
Speaking of ET, maybe Peter Rowsthorn can play Tony in a LIb Mini Series.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vsSv5VnytU
[Who like spending money like drunken sailors at a brothel]
And kept your sorry ass in a job.
Assuming you had one in the first place.
A Nielsen Poll!!!!!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/women-rally-to-gillard-as-alp-leads-poll-20100723-10ow7.html
Er, no Henry.
Why do you think they endorsed an accident prone ex Liberal with a propensity for hyperbole?
Glen@724
Says the torn Lib whose favourite word is “Gutless”
[I didnt hear him say he enjoyed killing rabbits.
I heard him say he got a taste of enterprise and reward for effort ($).
Typical rubbish from the rabid left on PB.
I always expect more civility from you lot and you let me down time and time again!]
Give it a rest. I never said he enjoyed killing rabbits. I am just implying the perception that somebody who highlights their career in killing, enjoys the killing – especially when it’s something perceived as cute.
I know rabbits are a pest and should be stopped. I know (hope) he probably didn’t enjoy it, it’s just something you can be perceived as a dick for bragging about.
It probably won’t affect his vote though. Most aren’t (I hope) that superficial.
[Actually, I haven’t yet made up ny mind whether Tony more closely resembles a naked mole rat or ET.]
Tony is a chimpanzee, Fulvio.
Case in point.
Nielsen
54-46 ALP
PPM Gillard +21
56-44 in VIC, 46-54 in QLD
51% believe Abbott will bring back Workchoices
[Actually, I haven’t yet made up ny mind whether Tony more closely resembles a naked mole rat or ET.
Tony is a chimpanzee, Fulvio.]
Why all the insults against naked mole rats, aliens, and chimpanzees?
Labor may lose some seats in Qld but on those figures it would gain elsewhere..
As far as climate change policy goes the proof of the pudding will be in the eating I guess. I’ll be voting greens 1 followed by labor somewhere above libs, but that’s all in line with the strategy JG has obviously been taking since before Kevin was rolled – capture the centre at the expense of opening up the left flank to the greens. I’m assuming/hoping this is on the understanding that the labor party will work with the greens, but if not … there’s not a lot else a lefty can do vote-wise (which is kind of the point of the labor party strategy).
Given she is trying to capture the centre, I guess it’s obvious that she won’t be making the Rudd mistake of trying to rhetorically pander to everyone – no hairy chested ‘greatest moral challenge of our time’, and in its own way that’s a big improvement. If she was seen to be continuing what appeared to be Rudd’s hypocrisy I think many people would punish her for it. Personally I think it’s disappointing that she isn’t articulating strong statements about actual climate change action, and because of that I’ll be voting green. That’s kind of the point. I can still appreciate what it is that I think she’s trying to do.
I guess I’m noting the fact that she is actually doing what Rudd was accused of failing to do early in his term which was construct a narrative. She’s given us a story about what is going to happen, along the lines of:
* elect JG
* JG puts the assembly and scientific panel together
* the assembly generates recommendations in 2012
* the government does something based on the recommendations.
In the grand ‘Yes Minister’ tradition of never making a panel or inquiry without already knowing what the outcome is going to be, I’m sure JG already knows what the recommendations are going to be – probably something remarkably close to the CPRS perhaps with fewer concessions. It seems to be her modus operandi to lay out the path, generate/confirm all the corroborating evidence, so that when she acts she can justifiably say that she is doing exactly what she said she would do. The fact that the citizens assembly is simply a song and dance routine to narratively lead to a particular outcome doesn’t detract from the fact that if the outcome is achieved then there will have been actual leadership involved in prosecuting that narrative. Maybe it’s just a different kind of leadership to what we’ve known in the past from the likes of Hawke and Keating.
As I said at the top, it’s hard to know what to think until we’ve seen a bit more real government, and I don’t know whether Julia will ultimately be a great prime minister or another terrible disappointment – either seems possible at the moment. I can’t vote for labor based on the platform as it has been presented, but my vote won’t be electing a lib/nat government, that’s for sure.
[Why all the insults against naked mole rats, aliens, and chimpanzees?]
naked mole rats: ugly, creepy pseudo-mammals
aliens: bastards who are always trying to take over the Earth and replace our good citizenry with pod people
chimpanzees: have you seen how aggressive those pricks get? (Unless you were referring to bonobo chimps)
[Er, no Henry.
Why do you think they endorsed an accident prone ex Liberal with a propensity for hyperbole?]
So who endorsed him in the first place fulvio!!
[Maybe it’s just a different kind of leadership to what we’ve known in the past from the likes of Hawke and Keating.]
You’re not wrong…
Glen @ “takes batteries out”.
Glen are you the Energiser Rabbit?
How could you then possibly condone the actions of this Rabbit Exterminator?
If the TPP is 46-54 in QLD but 54-46 nationally there must be some massive swings to Labor in the other states.
Any suggestions as to what seats they might win to offset losses in QLD?
I’d like to see some polling in Brisbane vs. the rest of QLD
It was a cunning Labor trap Henry.
Labor can now claim that both candidates who made offensive and insulting comments had Liberal Party affiliations. 🙂
So it’s WA and QLD versus the leftie states.
Game On.
Who could possibly want the Abbot and his minions? I ask you.
Nighty night, bludgers.
743
46-54 in Qld means 3-2-1 in the Senate election there.
Harry “Snapper” Organs@747
Green Bludgers – if their bile is anything to indicate 🙂
[So it’s WA and QLD versus the leftie states.
Game On.]
So, it’s back to the normal ideological paradigm of this country!
Game on, indeed!