Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face

As expected, Morgan has come good on voting intetion results from the phone poll for which a teaser was offered yesterday, and it shows Labor opening up a commanding 55.5-44.5 two-party lead. Morgan has also published a similar result from its routine weekend face-to-face polling, which has Labor’s lead up to 55-45 from 53.5-46.5 the previous week. Labor traditionally does better from Morgan’s face-to-face polling, so either there’s some statistical noise here or Labor has gained ground in the first week of the campaign. On the face-to-face poll, Labor leads 44.5 per cent (up 4 per cent) to 39.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent) on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.5 per cent (down 1.5 per cent). On the phone poll, the figures are 44 per cent for Labor, 38.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The samples were 719 for the phone poll and 871 for the face-to-face, with respective margins of error of about 3.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

UPDATE: Via Twitter via Frank Calabrese in comments, we learn of an Illawarra Mercury poll showing the Liberals well ahead in their marginal south coast NSW seat of Gilmore. Past experience suggests this will be an IRIS poll with a small sample of 300 and a big margin of error of 7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 phone poll, 55-45 face-to-face”

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  1. “Elections are won in the middle. That is where JG is taking us.”

    Julia Gillard is taking nowhere at all. That is the problem – that is why this election campaign is so utterly tragic – it is a triumph for mediocrity.

  3. Oh dear, looks like the Lib supporters can’t hide behind the “It was face to face, therefore was biased towards Labor” line, because both methods were used and the phone poll actually yielded the better results. Uh oh!

  4. [Julia Gillard is taking nowhere at all.]

    If you ignore that fact that she is continuing with substantial policies and all you’re looking for is some new lumps of pork thrown in your own direction.

  5. [Julia Gillard is taking nowhere at all. That is the problem – that is why this election campaign is so utterly tragic – it is a triumph for mediocrity.]

    HEAR HEAR!

    Blackburnpseph

    We’re all ‘enjoying’ the Seinfeld Election!

  7. The truly lovely thing about these numbers is that, were they reflected in the results of the election, the enemy would be down to about 50 seats. That is more than they deserve,given their completely dire performance of the last few years and their policy-free status, but would still be marvelous to behold!

  8. [substantial policies]

    ROFL

    Ummmm explain that with regards to her citizens assembly and god knows what she has as an immigration/population policy?

  10. cud chewer

    That is one refreshing change in this election. Zero pork, no highway to woopwoop. Well except for Toowoomba’s first 2km.

  15. Glen, sorry to keep pestering you but as you are one of the only reasonable Conservatives here, if Labor simply adopt Liberal policy, plus a bit extra, then why are you so annoyed? Surely this means you get the same policies no matter who gets in?

    Could it be that there is something more to it?

  19. Rudd alluded to Gillard’s moving to the right on both AS and Climate Change issues. And in her first press conference Gillard herself implied that she intended to fudge the CC issue with words like building a consensus.

    And we should recall that it was Gillard that pushed Rudd to shelve the ETS. Otherwise we may have had a DD election on the issue and Rudd on his way to a second term.

    So she reckons we need to build a consensus again, even after all the shenanigans of the previous election that forced Howard to develop his own ETS. Gillard wants to take us back to the Howard era.

    Interesting then is Rudd’s new job offer with the UN which makes a good contrast with Gillard’s obvious intention to do as little as possible.

    So having served the interests of the big miners is the Green Mafia back in charge of Govt energy and CC policy with Gillard as PM? It seems a bit like it.

    An analysis of Gillard’s words and deeds to date, and even her use of language makes her look awfully like a female version of John Howard.

    People assume that because she is in the ALP and from the factions that she will be a good old Labor leader, so they will suspend disbelief assuming that in the end she will take off her plastic Howard face and go…ta daaa fooled you all. Now we are going to do all good Labor type policies.

    People will be waiting and waiting and waiting for the real Gillard to show herself…but what we are seeing and hearing is it.

    This latest policy of Gillard should not be a surprise. I expcted exactly this from the way she has been speaking from the beginning. It is of course another capitulation and cop out.

    People may have laughed at me before but I say again that a Turnbull with the agreed ETS would be a threat to Gillard Labor.

  23. This idea that Gillard has no policies and copying policies really is sour grapes and is not logical. Which is it? She has no policies or she has policies?

  24. [People may have laughed at me before but I say again that a Turnbull with the agreed ETS would be a threat to Gillard Labor.]

    True, but Turnbull got rolled. We have no agreed ETS. Why?

  25. Because geezlouise they didnt come up with it!

    They get the credit and they take the best of what the Libs put forward (Statewise in Victoria – which I grant you isnt much but still) and everyone says how good they are.

    It’s a very painful thing to watch an incompetent government such as Brumby’s steal Coalition policies. (Just for the record I dont think any member of the State Coalition front bench is doing a good job).

    What I cannot stand is governments who deserve to be thrown out and arent because A (The Opposition is friggin useless) or B (They steal policies from the otherside and pass it off as their own).

    That’s why I love Latho TSOP!
    I didnt know he said that last time round.

  26. [That’s why I love Latho TSOP!
    I didnt know he said that last time round.]

    Then I shall withdraw my comment.

  28. [Glen, sorry to keep pestering you but as you are one of the only reasonable Conservatives here, if Labor simply adopt Liberal policy, plus a bit extra, then why are you so annoyed? Surely this means you get the same policies no matter who gets in?]
    Not only that Glen, why won’t you vote for them?

  29. [Glen you can vote Gillard in the knowledge you will getting some sort of female version of John Howard.]

    Compared to Tony Abbott, Howard is friggin’ Bob Brown!

  31. [We’re all ‘enjoying’ the Seinfeld Election!]

    This is twaddle. It is an election in which the Liberal manifesto, which gets down to doing absolutely nothing about anything of any importance, will be universally rejected.

    Australians generally like activist Governments: we want State power to be exercised for the benefit of the people and for the country as a whole. The Liberals are basically walking away from this as a matter of doctrine. This is the destination of conservative politics: believe in nothing, attempt nothing, whinge about everything, lie about as much as possible. They will pay the price for their laziness and their cynicism.

  32. [Glen you can vote Gillard in the knowledge you will getting some sort of female version of John Howard.]
    Still smarting TP?

  33. [Not only that Glen, why won’t you vote for them?]

    I havent changed my vote.

    I have nobody else to vote for because there isnt a genuine Centre-Right alternative.

    I am voting against Gillard than voting for Tony Abbott.

    I am not going to enjoy voting this year.

  34. [27
    Thomas Paine

    Glen you can vote Gillard in the knowledge you will getting some sort of female version of John Howard.]

    or you can vote Abbott in the knowledge you will be getting a Liberal Mark Latham – someone unfit for office.

  36. [Meanwhile, as reaction to Julia Gillard’s climate change plans continues to roll in, two environmental activists locked themselves inside the Prime Minister’s electorate office at Werribee this afternoon.

    They had chained themselves to a door using steel bike locks fastened around their necks; police had to cut them free.]

    Perfect – all we need now is some Green to support these actions, come on Bob you know you want to.

  37. [Despite his confidence during today’s launch, Mr Abbott earlier cautioned Liberal voters about expecting a good result from the ‘worm’ on Sunday, saying it traditionally did not like Liberal leaders.

    “Well, look, the worm certainly doesn’t like Liberals. I mean, the worm has a long history of disliking Liberals,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/23/2962738.htm

    Doncha just luv the way Abbott covers for himself – first it was ‘Labor will run a dirty campaign and now he wants us to mistrust the worm. What a wangker as Vera would say.

  38. [We’re all ‘enjoying’ the Seinfeld Election!]

    “While we support gay rights, we do not support gay marriage…”

    “…not that there’s anything wrong with it.” 😆

  40. [I have nobody else to vote for because there isnt a genuine Centre-Right alternative.]
    You can’t have it both ways. JG is either Howard in drag or she isn’t.

  41. Poor Glen, no-one to vote for, no-one to agree with, no-one to work for, no-one to expect anything good from. Nothing but bitterness and negativity – of course he’s not Robinson Crusoe there. Kopf hoch, Glen! Alles balt shoen werden wirt!

  42. When Abbott debated Rudd, he was really negative and the worm didn’t like that. What will Abbott do this time to get the worm on his side?

  44. [36
    ruawake

    Meanwhile, as reaction to Julia Gillard’s climate change plans continues to roll in, two environmental activists locked themselves inside the Prime Minister’s electorate office at Werribee this afternoon.

    They had chained themselves to a door using steel bike locks fastened around their necks; police had to cut them free.

    Perfect – all we need now is some Green to support these actions, come on Bob you know you want to.]

    This will further embellish Gillard’s centrist credentials. When will people learn: stunts like this only serve to strengthen the object of your criticism and to undermine your own credibility.

  48. This is just TP’s schtick. Come on here, dribble shit, expect attention. He is not above making total crap up either.

    Best ignore him, than take the bait.

  49. [“Well, look, the worm certainly doesn’t like Liberals. I mean, the worm has a long history of disliking Liberals,” {Abbott} said.]

    Their ABC is billing the Debate as

    [The Debate that could turn around the Campaign]

    If you ask me, they are getting in with an early bootstrapper, viz Abbott “wins” the debate, despite the verdict of the worm. Naturally, the campaign turns around after that…

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