The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.
UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.
Further polling factoids:
• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.
• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.
evan14. I empathise with you guys in Sydney, your shock jocks are a breed of their own. We in Melbourne have been blessed with Steve Price again, but we haven’t embraced him yet.
[We will be flooded by these boaties over the next 3 Years.]
Ha Ha Ha! You’ve been listening to Morrison obviously! Said this the other day — if they were distributed evenly between all electorates — it would amount to 3 or 4 families each — scary huh?
Your comment is moronic.
Criticising Christine Milne and the Greens on the ETS legislation is a bit rich as there was every opportunity for the ALP to negotiate , but they didn’t do so. It always seemed to me that Rudd and Wong were more intent on wedging the Libs than actually getting the legislation through. And it came back to bite them.
And if todays announcement is anything to go by, the government is still not serious. Give me the Greens position on carbon reduction any day.
[I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.]
Truthy, if you are that mad get in touch with a political party that shares your views. Go out and do letter box drops, sit in shopping centres and cop abuse from the other side.
Become a foot soldier for what you believe in.
It will mean less time on the intertubes, but hey everyone has to make sacrifices for the cause.
[I know, I shouldn’t be such a cynic.]
Does seem awfully convenient fredn.
[TheTruthHurts
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 5:59 pm | Permalink
3 More Years of Gillard… and the electorate will finally wake up and realise… it’s the
SAME OLD LEFTIE LABOR.
We are screwed.]
Hopefully over the next three years the Liberal party will spit out the right wing nutters and there can be a competition next time.
In my view, one of the campaign highlights will be you accepting Labor are going to win. Is this post a concession that Labor will win?
If it is, you didn’t last long.
[Criticising Christine Milne and the Greens on the ETS legislation is a bit rich as there was every opportunity for the ALP to negotiate , but they didn’t do so.]
Over the same tired territory again — it was useless for Labor to negotiate with the Greens — there weren’t enough of them to make a difference on the ‘positive’ side.
[3 More Years of Gillard… and the electorate will finally wake up and realise… it’s the
SAME OLD LEFTIE LABOR.
We are screwed.]
Which, with the notable exception of extremist right wing hicks, people seem not to mind.
On the other hand, from day one, people of all walks of life (many of whom have voted Liberal before) have admitted to being scared of Tony Abbott’s extreme conservatism, and are hesitant to support him just because of that one factor!
Puts a hole through your “The further you are to the right, the more you are in the right” electoral theory you’ve been peddling here!
[God you lot are good. What did you have him do, back into a car in the supermarket car park. I assume you will have a bent car to show should a journalist look too hard.
I know, I shouldn’t be such a cynic.]
Take the conspiracy theories to the abovetopsecret.com forums 😆
[Is this post a concession that Labor will win?
If it is, you didn’t last long.]
A number of Coalition sympathisers on here have long said that Labor would win the election. Maybe they believe it; maybe they wish progressives to be complacent.
[728
TheTruthHurts
This makes me angry… the punters are being conned by a “right wing” Gillard. This will turn out just like Rudd… right winger at the election, far leftwing pinko post election.
I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.]
I love when you are in pain, HTT.
Good ‘ol Laurie, the bee is still in his bonnet.
Gillard’s “policy” announcement today was dead-set weak.
[I love when you are in pain, HTT.]
Wait until Labor wins Herbert!
[TTH @742
I am personally happy to be flooded with boaties over the next 3 years at the same level as the last 3 years.]
Take a look at my graph:
http://illegals.weebly.com
Thats what you call an exponential growth graph. We’ll have to shut down our refugee program for real refugee’s from real refugee camps to deal with the amount of illegals as we only accept 13,500 people a year. I hope the left are proud of themselves, they don’t seem to give a stuff for real refugees.
[728
TheTruthHurts
This makes me angry… the punters are being conned by a “right wing” Gillard. This will turn out just like Rudd… right winger at the election, far leftwing pinko post election.
I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.]
Music to my ears.
[The Opposition has ridiculed Prime Minister Julia Gillard for her use of the phrase “moving Australia forward”, but Mr Hawke says she is absolutely correct.
“Why in the name of anything that makes sense should any political leader be attacked for committing herself to taking Australia forward?” he said.
“The great problem of the past has been that the conservative parties are backward looking.”]
Well said Silver Bodgie. 😉
Truthy, if Labor is same old same old, does this mean the same old same old too the Coalition ?
[Wait until Labor wins Herbert!]
I will do everything humanly possible to make that not happen.
[To Speak of Pebbles
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
””
Take the conspiracy theories to the abovetopsecret.com forums 😆 ]
Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, ya right. As I said, your good.
Truthy
Does the exponential graph work downwards as well as upwards?
[Gillard’s “policy” announcement today was dead-set weak.]
Something most people will support. Of course you could vote for Abbott and get no ETS at all.
[I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.]
Workchoices.
If it werent for that jesus Howard or Costello would still be Prime Minister FFS!
Plus I could run a better campaign than Abbott. Why doesnt he call Gillard gutless more I mean FFS she is cutting and running from any policy on CC and she is all over the place on population!
“Tony Mooney is not my MP and never will beee!” *shotgun blasts in the air*
Glen. Elections are won in the middle. That is where JG is taking us.
If, as a poster here would like to suggest, the punters really want a right wing prime minister why aren’t they voting for Abbott?
Channel 7 News was remarkably even handed. Criticised Abbott for his immigration policy. Laurie on 9 of course was only interested in bagging JG.
[Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle, ya right. As I said, your good.]
I meant it light heartedly. Doubt always crosses ones mind when a controversial politician has to drop out because of something unrelated. I was just teasin’.
[I will do everything humanly possible to make that not happen.]
OK Truthy off you go, knock on some doors. Why are you wasting you time on the intertubes?
[764
Psephos
I love when you are in pain, HTT.
Wait until Labor wins Herbert!]
….boundless joys await….I am holding out for Canning!….Allanah is such a go-getter and Randall is such an ‘orrible lowlife….
” right winger at the election, far leftwing pinko post election.”
If this was true, there may be hope for Gillard yet. The last two weeks have been profoundly disappointing. This is without doubt the most dire choice that I have been faced with in my voting life. The first time I have ever been pessimistic about the choice on offer.
[Elections are won in the middle. That is where JG is taking us.]
She is doing what Labor do every friggin time they win (ME TOO) so that there is no difference between her and the Coalition.
The Coalition has found no way to counter this. Until it does it is f’ed in my humble opinion.
Gillard isnt really centre-right or that rubbish she’s only doing this now because (ELECTION DAY) is upon is and it is convenient for her to move to the right.
Just wait until after 21st August! Labor’s new found centrist/centre-right leanings are a non-core promise at every election.
Glen, when you get business people criticing Abbott for his immigration policy you know the Libs are in trouble.
Tony mooney put Townsville in debt $150 Million.
If people vote for him cos they “recognise his name” then god help us. We voted this twerp out once, we should do it again.
New thread. By popular demand, I’ll leave this thread open for a bit before closing it.
“Elections are won in the middle. That is where JG is taking us.”
Julia Gillard is not taking us to the middle , she is taking us nowhere at all!!
[She is doing what Labor do every friggin time they win (ME TOO) so that there is no difference between her and the Coalition.]
Total BS Glen. You know this is only spin.
[If, as a poster here would like to suggest, the punters really want a right wing prime minister why aren’t they voting for Abbott?]
They don’t both extremes are scary to mainstream Australia. Majority of Australians want a government who will make sure they can live in relative comfort and seek prosperity. They do not like governments that seek to impose their ideologies on them. You have to be pragmatic, and slow with the “big ideas”
Why is that JG is so bad for trying to win an election. It was Abbott who recently said he was quiet on IR because he had to win an election.
[Julia Gillard is not taking us to the middle , she is taking us nowhere at all!!]
More spin.
Glen, so a non-core promise is a bad thing now is it?
Boundary Man – agree with you twice. Milne and the AS – I find Scott Morrison a deplorable bloke on this issue. Howes came him a good serve this afternoon with PVO and deservedly so.
I don’t mind offshore processing to stop them risking life and limb but what’s wrong with the number. It’s so small.
[Total BS Glen. You know this is only spin.]
Gary look at Victoria.
Every policy the Libs put up Labor matches and does a smidge more.
FFS they do this time and time again. This is not BS. It is a tried and tested strategy they use and they do it well.
[If people vote for him cos they “recognise his name” then god help us. We voted this twerp out once, we should do it again.]
They’ll likely vote for him because of which party he represents. While of course, there are some who will vote either way because of the candidate, it’ll come down to whom they prefer to be PM…
Gary
That wasn’t a policy today, that was talking about a policy. It was gutless , it was weak, it was absolutely pathetic. And if it is the best they can do, it shows that they don’t have a frigging idea. Even the Libs have a policy on the issue (one of two).
[That wasn’t a policy today, that was talking about a policy. It was gutless , it was weak, it was absolutely pathetic. And if it is the best they can do, it shows that they don’t have a frigging idea. Even the Libs have a policy on the issue (one of two).]
Disagree. It just wasn’t the policy you want.
[Even the Libs have a policy on the issue (one of two)]
But it’s a non-core “policy” because most of Abbott’s frontbench believe climate change is “absolute crap”. That’s why Abbott CHOSE them for their positions, IMO.