Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston

The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.

UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.

Further polling factoids:

• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.

• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.

• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

797 comments on “Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston”

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  1. [Once a Liberal hack always a Liberal hack.]

    Tom how can I be a hack when I dont work in politics?

    At least know what these words mean before you start using them as abuse!

    We (Tories) used to have a few catholics voting for us. Why look at Anti-Labor hero J.A Lyons 😀

  2. Sorry for phone failures I’m sure you get my point re how hard the greens made it to get any traction on global warming. The issue needed tripartite support to convince mum it got none

  3. [Tom how can I be a hack when I dont work in politics?
    At least know what these words mean before you start using them as abuse!]

    Consider it a compliment. I could have used much stronger language.

  5. my say:

    Yes, an interesting coincidence. Very interesting result too, not that results like this will prevent discussion of the narrowing. I always thought it was more an attempt to precipitate one than describe one.

    My username is a phrase I adopted when I realised I was too old to continually be saying “for f**k’s sake”, I’m sure you have heard it before.

  6. Honestly Glen, if you can’t see anything complimentary to say about Labor’s education policy and track record then you are still a one-eyed Liberal despite your claim to be disappointed.

  8. Speaking of Liberal hacks, has anyone noticed how much Michael Kroger has been tarting around the Liberal Party talking points? Last weekend when the election was called he was on constant rotation on channel 9 and not much changed during the week.

    For someone who never had the guts to actually run for parliament and who is not a part of the parliamentary party he has an uncanny ability to uncritically parrot the official party line. At least people like Bob Carr and Paul Keating and even Hawkey are able to provide some meaningful contribution beyond the ALPs official line. Kroger provides nothing.

  10. [Yes, leftwingpinko. Liberal hack is definitely a good description of Kroger.]

    And a Liberal Spin Doctor of the first order.

  12. So the journos in print and radio are saying that the wheels have fallen off the Labor camp and Abbott is ready to come up on the inside rails.

    What does everyone think?

  13. [“Yes, I think that there will be a change of government and yes, I think that I will be the next prime minister of Australia”]

    Oooh Tone hubris mate, get on the phone to John.

  14. It should be noted that Labor are in a slightly better position poll-wise than they were at this stage of the campaign in 2007. From memory there was a sizeable move to the Coalition in the first week of the campaign 3 years ago after the Coalition’s tax cut announcement.

  17. I see that the Morgan 2PP is the same 55.5 based on preference distribution as per 2007 election and as stated by the respondents. No extra “leakage” apparent from Greens.

  19. [As a teacher I think that computers for each student is an “ideal” but is not practical and proper for all students. The money would have been better spent on computing facilities in schools. The practical problems with computers in schools are sooooo big. ]

    Yes i talked to a lady whose sister was working out in a remote Aboriginal community.

    This community does not have access to mains power because of it’s remoteness.

    Anyways, each year you can put a request in to the state government for school supplies. She rang up and being a remote community requested a dozen live chooks to teach these Aboriginal students some life skills(like looking after livestock for food).

    The State Bueracracy said NO, she couldn’t have half a dozen chooks… but she could have some nice brand spanking new computers for their powerless school. A few more calls were made, and the same offer extended… no chooks, but they could have some computers. Finally the teacher relented… okay send us some computers.

    So the teacher recieved several thousand dollars worth of computer equipment, sold them off at a hugely discounted price and bought some chooks with the money.

    Ahhh… Bueracracy in action!

  22. And this is a Phone poll, which for Morgan I think has tended to be a point or 2 lower for Labor than the face:face version!

  24. [suppose Crikey’s own Bernard Keane is yet another example of anti-Labor media bias]

    Adrian – Bernard has been banging on for the Greens for quite some time as are many of his journo mates but he hasn’t to my knowledge said much about Christine Milne’s intransigence in this CC debate. She has to bear a lot of the responsibility for the deniers being able to make so much headway in their campaign against the ETs and in getting Abbott up as LOP.

    Bernard doesn’t expound on that at all so I disregard what he says about CC now.

  25. Looking at Morgan (TPP 55.5%) and Kingston (TPP 67%) could there be a issue where a lot of the Labor fat is going to electorates where they are already safe, and marginals are still close?

  28. This makes me angry… the punters are being conned by a “right wing” Gillard.

    This will turn out just like Rudd… right winger at the election, far leftwing pinko post election.

    I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.

  29. Gillard will turn into the leftwing pinko after the election, just like Rudd did.

    Why can’t Labor be BLOODY honest at the election?!

  31. Psephos
    ‘Ad astra’ is taken from my old school motto: ‘sic itur ad astra’ – thus one goes to the stars.

  33. [BH
    Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
    ….
    Fredn – but in 5 or so marginals that Labor need to pick up the Greens will not be directing preferences because the local candidates do not want to. Stiff cheddar if those 5 marginals turn out to be important.]

    And that is the nature of the greens, it’s a very loose party, might have to be nice to green candidates. It would seem to me JG is after the voters on the right not the left, she seems to be happy to let the left slip to the greens and then get most of the lower house back through preferences.

  34. I could almost smash stuff I am that pieved off. how can the punters fall for this crap.

    Kick an asylum seeker instead.

  35. [Labor’s candidate in Flinders has withdrawn.]

    The Car Accident was listening to his comments… in slow motion

  37. Tom I really think you ought to rephrase your abuse towards me.

    It is unparliamentary IMHO.

    Yes I criticise Labor’s rubbish education policies but how on earth can you call me a hack when I cant think of one good education policy of the Liberal Party let alone say whether it is good or bad?

  38. BH@724

    I agree with you re Milne. I listened to a lot of the ETS debate and i was seriously unimpressed with Milne. Every contribution was the same point being made over and over again and there was no constructive points being made. I was seriously impressed with wong and her handling of the details in the debate.

    The Greens are being a bit pure on this issue. There is no point seeking legislation that cannot or wont ever be implemented. Contrast this with the Senate and the Native Title Act in 1992

  40. [Why can’t Labor be BLOODY honest at the election?!]

    Like your mob Truthy? Did they mention WorkChoices before the 2004 election. Not a word! Honesty was NOT JWH’s catch cry.

  41. [ Labor’s candidate in Flinders has withdrawn.

    The Car Accident was listening to his comments… in slow motion]

    Well that leaves you with Holocaust Guy in Ballarat, Truthy.

  42. [Kick an asylum seeker instead.]

    We will be flooded by these boaties over the next 3 Years.

    Gillards pulling a nice little “i’m a rightwinger” job on the electorate, but it’s complete BS… this is the same trick Rudd used to get in. The Left CAN NOT win on it’s on merits, they have to lie and cheat their way in.

    At least with Rudd at the helm the punters knew the leftie was in charge and could vote him out, we now have ANOTHER fake right winger doing a job on the electorate.

  43. Truthy
    If you have concerns about real chameleons, may I suggest that you vent against a ‘Liberal’ leader who:

    1. Is against a market solution for AGW
    2. Is increasing company tax.
    3. Has locked in IR laws that are anathma to his small business constituency
    4. Is talking about reducing immigration levels by 100,000, anathma to his big business constituency.

  45. 3 More Years of Gillard… and the electorate will finally wake up and realise… it’s the
    SAME OLD LEFTIE LABOR.

    We are screwed.

  47. One of the 2GB shock jocks today was whining because no Labor politicians will go on his radio station – I can’t think why?
    Maybe it’s because 2GB is a 24/7 pro-Tony Abbott propoganda machine? 😉

  48. [The Car Accident was listening to his comments… in slow motion]

    What were they again? Comparing the BER to the holocaust? Oh wait, that was Mark Banwell, Liberal candidate for Ballarat.

  49. TTH @742

    I am personally happy to be flooded with boaties over the next 3 years at the same level as the last 3 years.

    If these people can go through what they do and survive through what they do to get here, then they show the level of enterprise (oldstyle liberal ideal) that this country needs.

  50. Truthy: Abbott is your creature, you and your fellow xenophobes are welcome to him…….and 10 more years in the wilderness. 🙂

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