Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston

The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.

UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.

Further polling factoids:

• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.

• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.

• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

797 comments on “Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston”

Comments Page 1 of 16
1 2 … 16

  1. [The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent.]

    “Frankly unbelievable”? You understate matters.

  5. You bugger William.

    It took me half and hour to write an absolutely killer post on the last thread and when I hit “Post” you’d closed off the comments behind my back and my priceless words of wisdom disappeared up the ethereal Crikey e-clacker. “Refresh” didn’t help me one little bit. It’s gone. Disso’ed. Vanished. Never happened. May as well have gone to bed.

    Do this to me once more Billy Boy and steps will be taken. Your superiors will be contacted, and then you’ll really be in trouble….

    You have been warned.

  7. Fulvio @3

    I know, I know, I just thought the least believable thing I read in that miserable rag this election campaign would be an Andrew Bolt column. Not a poll in what amounts to Family First heartland saying they’ve fallen behind the Greens.

  8. Frank, who gives a flying expletive where the ABC is broadcasting from?

    It will still be trotting out the same old anti Labor bile and taking the same old calls from the same old Liberal hacks like “Silvia” et al.

    It will probably have the same old a***licking interview with Bumbler Barnett, and the same old smarta### comments from the same old halfwitted presenter.

  9. William Bowe@6

    Didn’t know it worked that way, BB. Sorry to hear that it does.

    Will you be joing the Great unwashed in Vic Park ?

    we want some Happy Snaps and some goss – and a nice gatecrash when Antony Grreen is on – you MUST defend the honour of all Bludgers 🙂

  10. Fulvio Sammut@8

    Frank, who gives a flying expletive where the ABC is broadcasting from?

    It will still be trotting out the same old anti Labor bile and taking the same old calls from the same old Liberal hacks like “Silvia” et al.

    It will probably have the same old a***licking interview with Bumbler Barnett, and the same old smarta### comments from the same old halfwitted presenter.

    You forgot young Antonio of the Abbott who is in town as well.

  11. Oh, well, in that case I’m in for a real treat.

    I don’t know how I’ll manage to handle the Policy Overload I’ll be in store for.

  12. It may be a rogue but either way, it does not bode well for the Libs one bit. If it were 55-45, you could shrug it off and resign to the fact that the Libs were going to take a hit here, and take solace in the MoE. However, as rogue as it may be, this backs up what I have been saying about this state. Gillard is very popular here and the Libs are in terrible danger.

    The Ragvertiser complained yesterday that we were being ignored by the major parties. That’s just because there is no contest here. However, I am sure if and when Labor are more confident about their strength in QLD, NSW and WA, Gillard will be spending time here just to increase the yield – including picking up a few seats and maybe (big maybe) seeing a Coalition Senate seat fall…

    Still 29 days to go, but with marginal SA polling like that, the Libs are going to hurt here (pity there’s so few seats)

  13. You are forgiven William, this time. But don’t let it happen again.

    I’m sure you’d be as upset as I am that my priceless post didn’t make it past vapourware. You’d have been as interested to read it as I was to write it, of that there is little doubt. All this counts in your favour.

    But, the reality is, the post’s all gone now.

    However, your contrition means you’re “OK” in my book and therefore qualify for the benefit of the doubt.

    Meanwhile, over at the SMH, Jessica Irvine has been writing sense for a while. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen one of her articles linked here, and I propose to recifty that unfortunate situation. It’s time she got a PB guernsey.

    Can an article that starts out…

    If I have to listen to another month of the Coalition banging on about Labor’s debt pushing up interest rates, I think I’ll scream.

    … be anything but a “must read”?

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/debt-bogeyman-a-good-scare-tactic–if-you-ignore-the-facts-20100722-10mxp.html

  14. BB, thank you for linking that article.

    I think I’ve just read the LAiberal Party’s obituary for this election.

  16. Didn’t know it worked that way, BB. Sorry to hear that it does.

    It’s happened to me a few times as well.

    Just a suggestion, William – might be a pain for you, but seeing as it works the way it does, it might be helpful if you give us a 15 minute warning on a new thread approaching. Then no-one has an excuse for their post getting lost in the ether.

    If new poll figures get posted in an existing thread, I copy my post before sending it now. Just in case.

  18. Mexicanbeemer, previous thread:

    The reason why Abbott did so well in those days was his style was at first attractive when put up against Rudd but as I said at the time, the moment would come when Abbott had to be more than na straight talking action man and actually delivery something concrete.

    That’s not the way I saw it. Abbott just started talking to his party’s base again. Turnbull was dragging them toward a broader consensus with Labor, which the more conservative of the conservative party’s supporters were uneasy about.

    The choice facing the party, when it came to Abbott and Turnbull, was: do they risk unsettling the core supporters in reaching out for the swinging vote and soft Labor types; or do they just shore up what they have in order to give the party stability.

    They chose the latter. It defined them as an opposition, and probably settled the nerves of the Nationals as well. But it most likely killed any chance of them winning an election.

    Rudd’s declining fortunes masked it a bit. But all the way through Coalition support barely wavered from that 40-42 2PP zone. Expecting to get over the line on the back of Greens preferences (which were likely just protest votes anyway) was a bit unrealistic.

  20. Big spending promises heading Townsville’s way if James Cook University have their way.

    [Mr Mooney said he had briefed Prime Minister Julia Gillard about the benefits of the centre.

    “There is very strong identification with the Labor Government of the role of JCU, and I have nominated (the centre) as a priority of mine for the upcoming election,” Mr Mooney said.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/07/22/156491_federal_election_2010.html

  21. Along with boat people! All the boat people from western Sydney are going to invade Townsville, and we won’t be able to drive our cars because they’ll be everywhere! Damn Julia Gillard and her Big Bloody Australia!

  23. Today’s Rocky Bully has a proposal for Mt Morgan mine site to be rehabilitated.

    [The town’s Labor Party branch is seeking an election pledge from the Prime Minister to fund the total remediation of the mine site which scars the former gold rush community.

    It will cost an estimated $140 million to empty the pit of its deadly chemical cocktail – a 10,000 megalitre mix of sulphuric acid and heavy metals left over from the years when Mount Morgan was one of the world’s riches sources of gold.

    Campaigners have been warning for years that the contents of the pit, which has the same pH as battery acid, would poison water supplies in Rockhampton and beyond if it burst from the site.]

    http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2010/07/23/mine-pit-holds-toxic-cocktail-julia-gillard-morgan/

  24. BB@5:

    [It took me half and hour to write an absolutely killer post on the last thread and when I hit “Post” you’d closed off the comments behind my back and my priceless words of wisdom disappeared up the ethereal Crikey e-clacker. “Refresh” didn’t help me one little bit. It’s gone. Disso’ed. Vanished. Never happened. May as well have gone to bed.]

    On a Mac, (All Hail!) using Camino as a browser, all I have to do is press the back button on the browser and the post is still there. Copy, go to the new thread, paste, and she’s apples.

    It would be worth trying that method on a post that has worked, so that if this method works on your machine and browser, you have a back up plan.

  27. [Questions are being asked about the chance of former PM Kevin Rudd being given a ministerial position if Labor is re-elected, after revelations about the way he administered national security.]

    This simply amazing. Rudd has been accused of “neglecting” the National Security issues.

    [On Wednesday, the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, referred during his first ever prime minister’s questions to “the illegal invasion of Iraq”]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jul/22/nick-clegg-lucy-mangan-sketch

    Whereas Nick Clegg, the current PM of GB, has let the cat out of the bag. John Howard was not only neglecting the National Security issues. He conducted an illegal activity in the name of National Security.

  28. This Kingston poll might be overcooked for Labor, but don’t be too surprised it if isn’t *that* far off the mark. Unless I’m very much mistaken, Kingston takes in the area where Julia Gillard grew up.

    Either way, I think you have to be a South Australian to appreciate just how proud we all are of our local girl becoming PM. Her popularity is astonishing 🙂

  29. This beatup by ABC24 re the security meetings, has not appeared on Sunrise or Ch 10 news this mornong.I did not catch Ch 9.
    I expect either they realise that it is an old story or reluctantly(?) start reporting on this story today.

  30. [This beatup by ABC24 re the security meetings, has not appeared on Sunrise or Ch 10 news this mornong.I did not catch Ch 9.]
    It’s getting quite a run on SkyNews.

  31. I feel that the first 12 hours of ABC24 has been one big advertising campaign for the Coalition. There has hardly anything said about Abbott

  33. Okay, I should have looked it up first. Gillard grew up in Boothby. Well, that could make life a bit uncomfortable for Andrew Southcott …

  35. from bloomberg…….

    [Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to introduce an energy bill that won’t include a cap-and- trade program in which power plants buy and sell a declining number of carbon dioxide pollution rights.

    “We know that we don’t have the votes,” Reid, a Nevada Democrat, told reporters today in Washington.

    The scaled-back legislation will include measures on offshore oil and gas drilling regulation, energy-efficiency programs and incentives for natural-gas-fueled vehicles, Reid said….]

    The right continue to obstruct progress on climate change…….!@#%^^!!!

  38. Nice to see 67-33 in Kingston, but even if this poll was 60-40 it would be hard to believe. Kingston has pretty much been a marginal electorate since the year dot and there is no reason to think it should do anything radically different this time. The only thing I would say is Kingston largely takes in the state seat of Mawson which did remarkably well for Mike Rann in the state election. There could be a feel-good factor around the Seaford train extension, which after all is funded mainly by the feds. Changing demographics in this area may make the sampling more difficult – so I partly sympathise with the Advertiser. (Note I did say partly!!)

    A betting person would still have to favour a 0-0 draw in SA. Boothby is the only one that I really think could change hands.

  39. [When will we see Abbott campaigning in Sturt and Boothby? Monday I reckon.]

    An appearance in SA electorates by Abbott might just destroy whatever’s left of their vote 😉

  43. I agree the poll headline 67-33 is unbelievable. Still, no matter what the MOE is, that can’t be good for Team Blue. Likewise the Brisbane marginals, where they must have hoped for better.

    As for the ABC24 story, I found it trivial. I didn’t even think it reflected that badly on Rudd. If he’d delegated more, he might have been a better leader within the party. The fact is Australia doesn’t have any pressing national security concerns, which is why the whole border security story is such a huge beat up. As for comparing attitudes to bureaucracy to past PMs, the things I coudl tell you about working in Canberra under Howard… The Age did cover it.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/rudds-disdain-for-security-committee-20100722-10mxv.html?autostart=1

    And thanks for the link to the Jessica Irvine story – it is not news, but clear and well written. So now we have Tonay Abbott and Joe Hockey teling us debt is a problem, while Ken Henry, Glen Stevens, Jessica Irvine and Nobel prize winnign economist Joseph Stiglitz tell us it isn’t. Who to believe?

  44. Boothby, a Labor seat for the first 15 years of Federation and last won for Labor by Tom Sheehy in 1946, is Gillard heartland and is looking good for Annabel Digance, a nurse with excellent people skills.

    Sturt has only twice been won by Labor – by Norman Makin in 1954 and “Stormy Normie Foster in 1969 – but is now looking promising for Rick Sarre, Professor of Law at the University of South Australia.

    Andrew Southcott and Christopher Pyne must have shuddered when they saw the Kingston poll.

  45. TH @ 39 – and that is the dilemma for the Liberal Party.

    Because Abbott is so unpopular, they always needed to have more of a team campaign; using Hockey, Pyne, Bishop, Robb etc in the forefront of the government attacks like they did in parliament in the lead-up to the election – when he was recording reasonable (for him) approval metrics. A number of people noted that every time his face stopped appearing on the news, his popularlity went up and that as soon as he reappeared, his popularity went down.

    In the context of an election campaign – because he is leader – they can hardly hide him away, but by the same token, I have been suprised in the first few days of the campaign to see him front and centre. I note in the past couple of days we have seen more of the others, but that hardly helps matters when a) they drop clangers, and b) Abbott is standing behind them grinning like the village idiot when they do.

    The other notable thing in the past couple of days is that we have seen Abbott out and about more with women, as opposed to just seeing him in blokey workplaces, surrounded by blokes and with nary a woman in sight. The problem is – as was the case with some footage yesterday – when is is surrounded by women and children he looks like he doesn’t know what to do with himself. Uncomfortable doesn’t even begin to cover it. With men he looks natural and relaxed; with women he looks stilted and nervous. It hardly helps his cause, particularly when women are so good at picking up on that sort of thing.

  46. Soc, youre right about the debt beat up, but I think it is dangerous territory for Gillard to say debt is OK. This is a situation where Labor need more of the MSM to actually do their job the present the facts that contradict the Libs campaign

    What is the MOE of this poll? Even if it is 5% that means the result for Labor is 62-72 2PP.

    Any news of Morgan on 7?

  47. Kingston is also getting a duplication of the Southern Expressway, which will benefit both it and the adjoining electorate, also via Federal funds. They have reason to be pleased.

  48. [I didn’t even think it reflected that badly on Rudd. If he’d delegated more, he might have been a better leader within the party. ]

    But it’s inappropriate to delegate Cabinet duties to staffers. I don’t think political staffers should even be present at Cabinet meetings let alone participating in them. Good riddance Rudd.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 16
1 2 … 16