The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.
UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.
Further polling factoids:
• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.
• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.
Nothing on 7 Sunrise re: 2 PP Morgan
ltep
Fair enough on staffers vs ministers; I don’t know those rules. Still, I hardly think its a make or break story for the man in the street, unless that man is truthy terrified he will run into brown people in boats while out in his tinnie. I suspect Labor doesn’t get his vote anyway.
The ABC has a story that gillard will anounce a plan of attack on climate change today:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/22/2961744.htm
I can only hope so. Committing to a carbon price is good. A committee is only as good as the commitment to act on its advice. Rudd promised to have a report done by Garnaut but that didn’t get us very far, as Labor forgot to mention that it would only act on the painless solutions.
Yes, there is the Southern Expressway as well Socrates – when I wrote my earlier post I couldn’t remember if the feds were involved – and was too lazy to look it up when eating my weet-bix this morning 🙂
Today’s Herald Sun has my favourite journo spouting his disgust for the PM. He states that she is running the most dishonest campaign he has ever seen.
[Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 2:17 am | Permalink
You bugger William.
It took me half and hour to write an absolutely killer post on the last thread and when I hit “Post” you’d closed ]
Bushfire write it again i will read it, out till lunch time.
The same happened to me my little piece at the start of day 1 click gone nothing then, it took me a few second to realise NEW THREAD.
its funny when you think about. From now on we want a bell to ring mmm or 123
NEW THREAD
[
Victoira noted the abovemmm
i think Julia is very wise to do exactly as she is doing ,, i bet you think so to.
If Julia brings out a policy it will be all negative from the msm.
She tells the people what we want to hear the polls tell us that.
Hope for the future dare i say looking forward.
And there has been policies they dont want to hear them, the cadet apprenticeships
i have read that with interest on the labor site then the 500th work experience for highschool chidren
and the uniform rebate, so all education based so far ( except for Timor which is a policy going forward at this stage) there are new initiatives if the journalist do not want to write it more is the pity for them
How long before Julia’s excellent carbon plan will be called a GBNT by Tone?
Socrates @ 43
[As for the ABC24 story, I found it trivial. I didn’t even think it reflected that badly on Rudd. If he’d delegated more, he might have been a better leader within the party. ]
Indeed.
The ABC story is a beat-up, pure and simple, designed only to give the new 24 hour news channel an alleged ‘bombshell’ to explode on air on its first night, but of course, it turns out to be a dud, a damp squib.
Hitherto, we have been subjected to months of screeching by Cassidy, O’Brien, Jones, et al about former PM Rudd being a dangerous control freak, unable to delegate, and maniacally overworking diligent public servants. Now the assembled ABC media pack does a simultaneous backflip, and we are not expected to notice this full gainer with a half twist?
Rudd has gone from obsessive workaholic unable to let go of any decision to a lazy dilettante who, horror of horrors, delegates his presence in a security meeting to a mere 31 year old! This is surely the end of civilisation as we know it – Call for a Royal Commission! Recall Parliament! Send in the Feds to investigate the traitorous former PM!
A textbook example of creating something from nothing, worthy of David Copperfield at his best. What rabbit will Barrie Cassidy pull from his hat next? I won’t be watching ABC 24 to find out.
[Didn’t know it worked that way, BB. Sorry to hear that it does]
It does work that way William. I got caught not once but twice in a few days recently.
Fortunately my posts were only small and I had no trouble re-doing them. But it WAS frustrating. .
my say.
Yes Julia has been going well so far. My concerns lie with the reporting by the media. As we now know, the ABC cannot be trusted to be impartial and just report balanced news. It has become infected by these journos such as Bolt, Ackerman, Shanahan etc. and of course, we have the shockjocks who follow the rules “if you repeat something enough times, it will no longer be a lie”.
It is quite frustrating!
Anyone been following the Christopher Pyne/Senator X billboard endorsement story?
It got a bir of a run over the past couple of days here in SA, but I have come away from it still failing to understand some of the exact details.
We heard that Pyne has been forced to remove Senator X’s “endorsement” of him from a billboard ad in the electorate. What has never been made clear – unless I missed it – was whether or not the billboard *already existed* and he was forced to remove his ad from it, or whether it was just a *proposed* ad that never saw the light of day.
Hearing Pyne on the radio didn’t clarify matters and Matt and Dave didn’t seem to delve into it. They asked questions about whether legal action had been taken and Pyne was at pains to say it was all very friendly and that he asked X’s permission to do it which was denied. This is where it gets murky and where I get very confused.
Pyne says he ran into X in a coffee shop in the city and Pyne mentioned he wanted to do this billboard ad and asked if he could quote X that Pyne was “an effective locla member in terms of representing his constituents” or WTTE. X said no, he wouldn’t feel comfortable with that, so Pyne says that was that; X said no and he respected that decision.
This then raises the question of how the story became a story. If the billboard did exist and Pyne was forced to take it down then it means he went against his word to X; after asking X if is was okay and X said no, he then went ahead and did it anyway. But than again, if he DIDN’T end up going ahead with the ad and it never appeared anywhere in public and therefore Pyne wasn’t “forced” to remove anything, why is this even a story?
How did the media hear about what was effectively an internal campaign decision not to go ahead with a billboard ad, which was in turn based upon a private conversation between Pyne and X?
After hearing Pyne on the radio, one could be forgiven for thinking that he was the one who leaked it to the media in order to get the X endorsement into the public domain in any case. He repeated the phrase “that Christopher Pyne is an effective local member in terms of representing his constituents” so many times that Matt and Dave were laughing about it. And if that is true – that he has created a “controversy” around an ad that never publicly existed in order to ensure its message got an even more public airing – it is just a serious a betrayal of X’s trust; in fact, it is even more so because it was quite deliberate and manipulative.
I find it astonishing that none of our local media seem to be asking these questions. Sturt is a marginal seat and in the context of this campaign, this could have been a real issue for Pyne; it questions both his honesty and integrity. Instead, the media seem to have just have a bit of a laught about it and then moved on without having thought too much about what it all meant.
Bet anything Senator X feels quite differently about it, though …
Greg Hunts new line “Electricity Tax”.
GBET!!!
“The [Advertiser] poll has a calculated margin of error of plus or minus 4 per cent.”
Uh-huh… still seems improbable. But if they’re right (and it isn’t a bad sample size), that’s a huge victory for Labor..
Oh God, sorry about my appalling typing.
Morning fingers 😉
chinda63. The reason why the Pyne situation is not clear, is because Pyne is talking from both sides of his mouth. Something he often does.
The more I observe the tactics in play with the Liberals and the media, convinces me that they had all their ammunition targetted at Rudd during the campaign. The Labor party had no choice but to change leaders, which has left the Libs flatfooted.
We’ll know for sure soon enough…more speculation on whether Belinda Neal will run for Robertson as an independent:
[THE signs are there that Belinda Neal will contest the federal election as an independent. While she says she has yet to decide whether to run, sources have told the Herald she has commissioned signs saying: ”Belinda Neal: Independent for Robertson”.
It is understood the signs have been completed and are ready to be hung on Ms Neal’s Woy Woy electorate office when she gives the go-ahead…
Labor holds Robertson with an ultra-slim margin of 0.1 per cent, making it one of the four most marginal Labor seats in the country.
Internal polling shows Ms O’Neill is in a competitive position. While Ms Neal would not be expected to win the seat, the distribution of her preferences would be crucial to the final result.
Until the emergence of the signs, Labor sources thought Ms Neal would not run but was just stringing out the decision to damage the party’s chances.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/signs-point-to-neal-standing-20100722-10mzr.html
thought i would have my first little look stayed about 2 min as she ask about the oppositions policy re global warming gee have they got one
24/7 news just repeats of the breakfast show and it s just 9 -10
doesnt that show finish at 9
Victoria – I think you are right about that. The Libs – as Labor and the other parties have done – would have already had quite a bit of campaign material planned and ready to do – if not already printed. Certainly some very marginal seats have had quasi-campaign material appearing on and off over the past few months.
I don’t believe for a second that the Libs were caught on the hop in terms of the election timing: no question they would have been ready to go for an August election. What moved the goalposts was Labor having a different leader and them having to alter the material they had already prepared and, in some cases, withdraw anti-Rudd material that was already in the public domain.
I suspect that much of the past month has been a mad scramble to get the new campaign materials done and ready to send out. Maybe that’s why they had so many seats still to preselect candidates for; they were otherwise occupied 😉
Mind you, that still gives them no excuse. Labor were effectively in the same boat; I’m sure they had to ditch plenty of “Kevin” material and substitute it with “Julia” material. I think it speaks volumes to the professionalism of the respective campaigns that one managed to do it well and the other seems to be floudering.
Well, after the usual “The Opposition is demanding…” opening to every ABC radio news bulletin this morning, I’m actualy not so concerned.
Stories about Rudd keeping people waiting – in fact keeping the very senior Defence people who are now backgrounding ABC-24 waiting – are as old as the hills.
Of course, the pitch is fairly tenuous…
1. Rudd kept people waiting.
2. Some of these were Defence people (used to being kow-towed to by flashy flunkies).
3. Therefore Rudd is bad on Defence.
4. Therefore Gillard should have done something about it then.
5. Therefore she can’t give him a job now.
6. Therefore…. what? Bali got bombed twice? We supplied Saddam with wheat? We lied about kids overboard (note: Admiral Barrie was interviewed by Uhlmann)? Homegrown terrorism went unpunished? We bought the worst fighter planes going? We got tanks too heavy even for the wharf facilities or the crappy railway we paid Halliburton to build from Adelaide to Darwin? —– er, they all happened under Howard.
So a couple of bathtub admirals and tin soldier generals got miffed at being kept waiting. We knew about this two years ago and it barely got a mention, even at the time. It’s all in the current context that this now matters.
The only conclusion I can come to is that this nothing story being revived now is designed to damage the government in the current election. It’s designed to put the cat among the pigeons and cause a bit of a stir for a day or so as the gaggle tows around after Gillard. She should have done something (I suppose deposing Rudd doesn’t count) and now she can’t do anything. Get out of that one Julia. Gotcha!
Can I coin a new term? “Catch-24”? (ABC News-24, that is).
Julie Bishop’s trying to get Gillard to say she’d appoint Rudd as FM was a giveaway She must have been tipped off. When you think about it, Rudd – a backbencher now – was attracting far too much attention for someone who just went along to a local school to tout a hall his government had built. In retrospect there was something fishy about all the attention the Coalition was paying to it. In that “Mrs. Bitch” voice of hers, Bishop dares to talk about what proper for National Security? It shows how desperate the Coalition is to be relevant that they trot her out to bootstrap a convoluted chain of logic that goes back years, she being the single greatest non-performer in their senior ranks among robust competition for the top spot.
There’s also the aspect of kicking Rudd when he’s down. After going on and on about how poorly he was treated (“knifed in the back”), the Oppos are now ganging up to twist the blade between his ribs. Quelle hypocrisement.
This story has all the hallmarks of being one that has been in the bottom drawer for quite a while. It would have been ready for Rudd PM‘s campaign. Only… the target got the chop for the very reason they’re now whingeing, by the person they’re saying didn’t do enough to fix the situation they’re now beating up. Oh well, maybe no-one will notice. After all (love this!) ABC News-24 was the second most popular subject on Twitter last night, for a while at last. Wow! It must be true.. I heard it on the ABC.
Joe Ugg Boot in his trakkie-daks out at St. Marys has kept his job, subsidized by the Stimulus and protected by the repeal of harsh unfair dismissal laws. His interest rates are lower than under Howard. His mate got work on the BER. His kids have a laptop. His home is insulated. His Mum’s pension went up. He bought a new TV with his and luvvie’s $900 cheques. There’s a new super clinic going up in the town centre. And he’s going to worry that, years ago, Rudd stood up Angus Huston? He was out making sure the GFC didn’t wreck the Ugg Boot family lifestyle? and the ABC reckons this is a bad thing? That the oldest Piltdown Man-like fossil of them all, Admiral Barrie, disapproves of the guy that La Gillardine deposed, for the very reason she deposed him is just icing on the cake? Then the cherry on top: one day the Coalition are telling him he should feel sorry for Kevin Rudd. Next they’re telling him he should loathe him.
It’s all too complicated for poor Joe.
A classic case of what looked like a maybe half-interesting story being left in the bottle for too long before being drunk. When they finally popped the cork it had gone off. Not even good enough for putting in the spag bol.
Let’s go out for pizza tonight, Luvvie. We can afford it.
Julia’s Climate Change (non) Policy. What a load of sh_t!!!
Inside goss. Govt has polling that shows wide community support for carbon price and the issue is not a vote shifter (Source- senior factional heavyweight).
What a cop out.
[Julia’s Climate Change (non) Policy. What a load of sh_t!!!]
She hasn’t announced it yet you dill. 😛
ruawake,
they announce policy via the SMH these days. Speeches and policy papers are just supporting material.
[The only conclusion I can come to is that this nothing story being revived now is designed to damage the government in the current election]
Good post, as usual BB.
I was thinking, though, of an alternate explantion of who would have the most to gain from this stroy.
At around the time of him being deposed, I recall reading a story in the AFR that bureaucrats were horrified at the prospect of Rudd becoming defence or foreign minister.
It seems to me that senior bureaucrats at defence (and possibly foreign affairs) would be keen to ensure that Rudd was too damaged goods.
The story was very targetted to national security committee (did our fearless investigative journo find out whether there were any other committees Alistair Jordan went to? From what I have heard of Rudd’s administrative style, I would not have been surprised. There doesnt seem much context – only defence/foreign affairs)
And Defence sounds like it is pretty much an out of control bureaucracy, almost a law unto itself
BB another exemplary post from you! Was this the post that got wiped when new thread was started?
Should Australia buy the Joint Strike Fighter or not?
Big question. Massive budgetary and national security implications.
I propose a citizens assembly. That should answer it for us.
…and thinking of the bogan vote, our friends at Things Bogans Like have given what I think is their lowest score yet to the Coalition. Great description of Costello, but here is their take on Hockey:
[Then, Joe Hockey, the bloke who had the stones to run for party leader, but was so unimpressive that Tony Abbott won the ballot, decided to compare Wayne Swan’s relationship to budget surpluses (again) to Paris Hilton’s apparent sluttiness.
Not only could this potentially alienate vital slutty voters, it will also offend pretty much every bogan.
The she-bogan to this day holds Ms Hilton in the highest regard for her unerring ability to be famous at all times and do what she wants. The male bogan likes Paris Hilton because he believes there is a genuine chance that, like Millsy, he might get to nail her one day.]
http://thingsboganslike.wordpress.com/2010/07/23/bogan-bribe-watch-july-23rd/
It has its own legal system. It is literally a law unto itself.
Kevin Rudd did what he done, and Julia did what she done. A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…
But what must the decent journos – the foreign correspondents especially, the ones who dodge real bullets to get the new, not just sit at their laptops writing opinion – have thought about a bullshit story that would be sure to put off half the population from ever watching their new 24/7 puppie?
You could almost hear the groans coming from loungerooms across the country as – after all the hype – the new ABC service did a bad impersonation of Sky News. and they did it just to kick off with a bang, not because the story itself was worth more than a zack.
“ABC Bashes Rudd With Bootstrap Nothing Story. Gillard Next.”
…. and after that @$/7 gets second dibs at Shanahan, Milne, Bolt and Akerman (when they’re finished their committments on Sky, of course).
Tell me something I don’t already know.
BB @ 72
[In that “Mrs. Bitch” voice of hers, Bishop dares to talk about what proper for National Security?]
Spot on. The idiocy of Julie Bishop lecturing us all on the proper management of Foreign Affairs can only be surpassed by the prospect of the nation’s premier chickenhawk, Alexander Downer, entering the fray today and pontificating windily about “it wouldn’t have happened in my day!”
Indeed it wouldn’t, as Downer was so hands off with his department that 100’s of cables about the ‘Wheat for Weapons’ scandal passed across his desk without him registering their existence.
For the Opposition to now make any claims of mismanagement of Australia’s Foreign Affairs under Stephen Smith and former PM Rudd compared to their appalling tutelage of our nation’s international relations is to confirm their unfitness for the Treasury benches in 2010 – these people are the complicit criminals who approved of the prosecution of an illegal war against Iraq, and this should never be forgotten in any assessment of their Foreign Affairs credentials now.
Yep. It’s pretty obvious from the way it affected the preparation of the two parties that the Liberals had only prepared a negative “get Rudd” election campaign, which has now been nobbled. While Labor prepared an election campaign, which can still go ahead because it wasn’t built around Rudd’s personality. In fact, Labor are getting more free air than they might have, while Abbott and co struggle to get their story straight.
It’s also the only way to make sense of the Rudd “bombshell” on ABC‘s news channel. They must have been sitting on that one for quite a while, in the hope that it would give them an immediate boost as soon as they went to air. Trouble is, it only has impact if Rudd is still leader – then everyone could go about asking him to explain it, and it would have bogged him down for days.
That they decided to go ahead with it anyway, even though it has marginal relevance to what’s happening, is quite telling. I’d hate to think that the ABC gives less importance to reporting than muckraking. And a smear like that is something they could have got away with if Rudd was still PM. They way things stand now, it appears they have a tactic with nothing attached to it.
I haven’t watched the 24-hour news channel yet, and I don’t intend to. I assumed it would be the ABC2 breakfast news writ large, and stayed the hell away.
The story-line on Kev adds a bit of close-up camera. There he was, treating people as he ought not and skipping meetings while publicly saying what a big deal they were. It’s a story-line that has the ring of truth. It validates people’s loss of confidence in him (…..ah, I knew he was full of crap…) and it validates his removal (….thank goodness he’s gone….).
Call it a beat up if you like, but it won’t do Gillard any harm at all. Kevinocracy really is dead, buried and cremated.
Just listening to JG now – agree or disagree with the content you have to concede she can present a case in a thorough and reasonable way, no Paris Hilton quips, no gbnt style sloganeering and no fear mongering required. I think ordinary people respond well to that.
Nice theory. BB, but what if the most recent part (Rudd’s non-attendance at some NSC) which incidentally, didn’t appear in 2008 version, came from within the ALP? Motive?
a. post-facto justification of the knifing and
b. to prevent Rudd getting a ministry.
Should we be unimpressed? Should the leak be rooted out and sent to the political bottom of the harbour, with concrete boots on?
I think so. I reckon Gillard will be well advised to end the political careers of those who put her there, before they screw her like they did the NSW govt, and Rudd.
PS “The Libs and the media had all their ammunition targetted at Rudd during the campaign”. Sorry guys, but this is hardly a news flash! Of course they did.
[LABOR’S new climate change policy has been dismissed from both the left and the right, even before it has been unveiled. ]
Who would have thunked that?
The policy of having a people\’s congress is a net negative for Gillard. People have made their minds up people want government to do something, they don\’t want more consultation.
Agree geezloise
The protesters’ noise in the background (?) is probably helpful…i.e. “we are in the middle” type thing
Julia Gillard
.
Wow at least she got this part right. The current price increases are but a for taste of what would happen under a CPRS.
Like population and immigration Julia, I’m afraid, is resorting to mealy mouthed, meaningless, lots of words, signifying nothing of substance.
More of spin and fluff. Our Prime Minister? Go figure.
Oops, Gillard said that new coal power stations will be built. That means she isn\’t serious about dealing with climate change.
interesting use of the word “pollution”. using it alot.
Flood of boaties about to rain on Gillies Parade… so much for those “push factors”, this is all Rudd and Gillies work.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-causing-boatpeople-scramble/story-fn59niix-1225895840373
Election causing boatpeople scramble
[The Australian has been told the Australian Federal Police is bracing for a wave of boats in coming weeks.
The Refugee Resource Centre has predicted that asylum-seekers waiting in Indonesia are scrambling to get on any boat they can ahead of the federal election.
Pamela Curr, of the resource centre, said she had spoken to people in Indonesia who were fearful that if Tony Abbott became prime minister he would tow them back to Indonesia.
So far this year, 3854 people have arrived on 81 boats. The average number of passengers per boat has been 48. The last time Australia received more than 3000 boatpeople in one year was 2001, when 5516 asylum-seekers arrived on 43 boats with an average of 128 people per boat.]
It will be interesting to see Gillies reaction as the boats flood in. Perhaps she can set up an inquiry… do lots of talking… thumb shuffling as the boats come in. She sits and waits while Rome burns
i think it makes it sound less theoretical and a bit more real. good work.
Spot on laocoon @ 76. KR as Foreign Minister? What a bad idea! Let’s hope that Australia does gain a seat on the Security Council. Maybe then KR can be appointed Ambassador to the UN and shipped to the USA, where he will sink without trace.
talk about “pollution”… my post was followed by slick of it…
You can hear a continuous drone of protest in the background on the Sky coverage. Some clown broke through but was removed by security.
The citizen assembly is an unfortunate necessity brought on by the cynical fear mongering of the denialists.
blue_green
She is setting up a Quango as well.
Her climate change policy changes nothing and would make Sir Humphrey Appleby proud 😀
[The citizen assembly is an unfortunate necessity brought on by the cynical fear mongering of the denialists.]
You give the denialists too much credit. 65 – 75% of Australians think a carbon price is the best way to deal with climate change.
We don\’t need more talk, we need legislation.