The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.
UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.
Further polling factoids:
• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.
• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.
• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.
• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.
It’s good to see William featured in today’s FirstDog cartoon:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/23/great-masterchef-debate-drunk-nudie-shark-bingo/
[On WorkChoices Keenan is as radical as Howard, Costello, Abbott, Minchin, Abetz, Andrews etc.
Where is your proof?
You have none!]
He maintains that the Liberals still hold “a philosophical positron” on IR, while acknowledging that the position held is at odds with the people’s wider view. Therefore it is, by definition, a radical position because it is out there away from the mainstream.
The Australian, 03 October 2008
[{The Coalition’s federal industrial relations spokesman Michael Keenan} … said the Liberal Party still had a “philosophical position” on workplace relations but “obviously we are also not going to argue with the Australian people about what they told us in 2007”.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24439000-5013404,00.html
[409
Thomas Paine
If people still havent worked it out, Briefly, is the second labor hack here i was refering.]
Thomas, I am no hack – merely a humble voter with too many opinions.
“Chris the Toolman standing by his story 100% re Rudd and the NSC on ABC 24.
Surprise surprise.”
That’s fine. The point is it wasn’t a story of any importance. It’s like telling a story that Kevin Rudd had dinner one night and then went to bed- sure it’s true but who really cares.
He most definitely didn’t stay on, but he did come back. There’s a difference. 🙂
The list of course also includes Deakin, Watson, Reid, Fisher, Cook, Menzies, Fadden, Chifley not to mention the ‘temporary’ PMs Page, Forde and McEwen.
It’s rare in recent times, but not in the overall history.
Rather unimpressed so far with ABC NEWS 24 – just more of the same anti-Labor propoganda from Virginia and Toolman.
No wonder Sky is unimpressed, their turf is being stolen.
Given that someone here said they had been polled by Neilsen during the week, I expect that there will be a poll in tommorows AGE/SMH. Another nail in the Tony coffin.
[“a philosophical positron” ]
I presume the positron’s philosophical view is positively charged? Otherwise it would be a philosophical negatron.
Whats the difference between a positron and a proton?
[I presume the positron’s philosophical view is positively charged? Otherwise it would be a philosophical negatron.]
[Whats the difference between a positron and a proton?]
A positron is a positively charged electron.
protons can’t power robot’s brains?
[411
the spectator
Briefly – Rudd is capable and smart ….. it is you who should get over it and accept the fact that the member for Griffith is here to stay and good luck to him with his future political career -hopefully as Aust next Foreign minister.]
We have an excellent FM already, but aside from this I am thinking of the best interests of the Government. Will Kev accept that he is there to serve the Party and the Government, rather than the other way around? He has to demonstrate this. So far, he has done not much more than try to discredit his opponents and contrive some lamentations for his losses. He cannot have it both ways.
Seriously, he has already shown a dismal lack of political skill – sufficiently lamentable to cost him the Leadership. I doubt that he has the political talent and strength of character to enable him to serve as a ready equal alongside those who deposed him. It is just asking for trouble.
[“a philosophical positron”
I presume the positron’s philosophical view is positively charged? Otherwise it would be a philosophical negatron.]
Electrifying position.
(Dumb spell-checker!)
“Whats the difference between a positron and a proton?”
A fair chunk of mass for a start.
New Liberal Party web site is up:
http://www.totaltools.com.au/
Astradome
I quote my #472 as you misundersood
“ETS Bill actualy delivered a 23% co2 reduction from 2011 to 2020 to bring emmissions back to 2000 co2 levels Your Greens Party shame voted with minchin & Barnaby wrecking good CC Bill”
your reply talked about someting about my grammar and cannt see why or how hll makes a CC difference anyway , but YOU did NOT rebut my fact point so you simply red heringly to avoid your Greens shame for stopping a step for CC mitigation startin in oz !
90% of aussies do NOT vote for youse Greens , so th message is YOU is out of step
Govts remain in power by ACTUAL representin th moderate majority of Aussies who beleive in CC but do not want to pay for it , nor get dire econamic effects nor get millions unemployed and nor get adverse sosial consequenses
Julia now has to rebuild that , after your lot and Liberals killed off a CPRS window then requirng NO sell on voters having to pay !, and after Coppenhaggen failed and now US abandined CC as well
If the proton is the big thingy that is orbited by and balanced out (charge wise) by an electon, then I dont get a positron at all.
Perhaps as I dont understand it, along with much of the community, I could organised a deliberative and democratic process to get to the bottom of it.
Well, FWIW I’d be happy to see Rudd in Cabinet. He is clearly dedicated and committed, intelligent, well regarded internationally, and has a warm and engaging approach to voters. Seeing him at the school the other day just reminded me how effective a communicator he is. Frankly he’d be an assett to the government.
Someone of Rudd’s talent and expertise shouldn’t be wasted on the backbench.
“We have an excellent FM already, but aside from this I am thinking of the best interests of the Government. Will Kev accept that he is there to serve the Party and the Government, rather than the other way around? He has to demonstrate this. So far, he has done not much more than try to discredit his opponents and contrive some lamentations for his losses. He cannot have it both ways.
Seriously, he has already shown a dismal lack of political skill – sufficiently lamentable to cost him the Leadership. I doubt that he has the political talent and strength of character to enable him to serve as a ready equal alongside those who deposed him. It is just asking for trouble.”
Dismal lack of political skill = he won an election and became PM – a feat achieved by very few. As for an excellent FM – clearly they did not get the foreign niceties on who runs East Timor lined up recently with the current FM. Having said that I think Steven smith is very competent but Rudd would be a better FM with more gravitas. All politicians are there to serve themselves and their own interests that accords with human nature- the party is secondary. Gilliard is no different. neither was Hawke or Keating. If Gilliard plumets the machine will be back in action looking for new leadership and will move forward with someone else.
Josh Frydenberg is bloody annoying, and yet he is going to be in parliament for years in a safe seat.
briefly,
The best thing that you could do with the rest of your life is to find some other blog to clear out your continually-congested bowels onto…
Paul Howes tells PVO he would be a better member for Curtin that Julie. 🙂
blue_green:
A positron is an anti-electron (as in antimatter).
[474
Fulvio Sammut
I find it curious that the Liberals and their acolytes consider it objectionable that a security cleared, 31 year old professional member of the Prime Minister’s staff attend a meeting and report back to the PM on the issues raised]
Fulvio, the “meeting” was of a sub-committee of Cabinet. The Committee consists of the PM, the FM, the Minister for Defense, The Attorney-General. The essence of the Westminster system is that it is Ministers – who sit in and are accountable to the Parliament and who appointed by the Governor General – who exercise authority in accordance with their oaths of office. The PM’s staffer is not even a public servant or defense official within the statutory meaning of the terms.
It seems to me this was another example of Kevinocracy: the attempted rule of the country by one person.
I am very glad this experiment is over.
“If the proton is the big thingy that is orbited by and balanced out (charge wise) by an electon, then I dont get a positron at all.”
A positron is just like an electron, except positively charged (or if you prefer moving backwards in time 🙂 ).
So proton: massive, hangs about in nuclei due to the strong force, made from quarks
Positron: not very massive, doesn’t feel the strong force, elementary particle.
[If the proton is the big thingy that is orbited by and balanced out (charge wise) by an electon, then I dont get a positron at all.]
Richard Feynman once explained it:
[Electrons can move backwards into forwards time whereas positrons can move forwards in backwards time.]
[Seeing him at the school the other day just reminded me how effective a communicator he is.]
It reminded me of how phoney and wooden he is in those appearances and how much better off Labor is with Julia Gillard.
[Frankly he’d be an assett to the government.]
Someone who is so childish they’ll refuse to name their leader in public should be told to jump.
Thanks Stephen, Like with climate change, its hard to understand what you can’t see. If only CO2 was pink.
| Permalink
[It’s the heading of this thread, My say.]
see thats what i get for coming and going thought it was some new
mm like a pp all round now that would be something
OK. Gillard has committed to a price on carbon more or less in line with what is happening overseas, as identified by an independent CC commission.
The kamikazi alternative was to announce a price on carbon now and hear ‘A Great Big New Tax on Everything’ around 5000 times over the next four weeks.
There will, of course, be no mercy if there is no price on carbon in three year’s time.
The alternative choice is no price on carbon, and $3 billion spent on planting trees on public land that does not exist, subsidising polluters, and doing a rural carbon sequestration rort.
Take your pick.
[Paul Howes tells PVO he would be a better member for Curtin that Julie.]
I haven’t got access to TV today, but has Tone had Julie with him in WA? Or is he still hanging out with angry blokes?
who is PVO
[Fulvio, the “meeting” was of a sub-committee of Cabinet. The Committee consists of the PM, the FM, the Minister for Defense, The Attorney-General. The essence of the Westminster system is that it is Ministers – who sit in and are accountable to the Parliament and who appointed by the Governor General – who exercise authority in accordance with their oaths of office. The PM’s staffer is not even a public servant or defense official within the statutory meaning of the terms. ]
Hear hear briefly. Very well put.
Martin B and Greentard,
Wow. We have some very smart people here.
Moving backwards in forward time and moving forwards in backward time.
Sounds like our election choices.
PVO = Peter Van onselen from Sky news and The Australian newspaper mysay.
[622
Kersebleptes
briefly,
The best thing that you could do with the rest of your life is to find some other blog…]
Well my wisdom is obviously wasted on you, Kersebleptes…..
Briefly, July 23, 2010 at 12:56 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/23/advertiser-poll-67-33-to-labor-in-kingston/comment-page-8/#comment-530852
[… is deeply mistrustful, easily frustrated and prone to anger, is intemperate and self-absorbed, self-serving and has obvious learning difficulties]
Briefly, July 23, 2010 at 4:13 pm
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/23/advertiser-poll-67-33-to-labor-in-kingston/comment-page-12/#comment-531086
[… To be clear, I have no personal animosity towards Kev]
I think a change in lines is in order …
[It seems to me this was another example of Kevinocracy: the attempted rule of the country by one person.
I am very glad this experiment is over.]
It seems you are more than keen to experience the Abbott experiment.
Kersebleptes has totally nailed your problem.
[It reminded me of how phoney and wooden he is in those appearances]
Rudd has always had exceptional communication skills. Even in the years before he became opposition leader, his media appearances and interviews cut through. The health debate earlier this year was as good an example as any of his ability to speak directly to voters, and as you no doubt saw, they responded to him in kind. It was exactly the same in all the Community Cabinets I saw: people responded to him because of his warmth and genuine interest in their issues.
Briefly, it would also seem that defense Chiefs of Staff attended. Are they not public servants also? Is not the staffer paid by the public service?
Are not the minutes of the meetings taken or transcribed by public servants?
If something is that secret that only a special coterie of cabalists need to be informed of it, they would surely be so advised, and only they would be permitted to attend?
Or am I being too simplistic?
[Paul Howes tells PVO he would be a better member for Curtin that Julie.]
That’s abit like saying the sky is blue.
[my say
Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 4:47 pm | Permalink
who is PVO]
Sanctimonious windbag in the OO
A bit like a sober Glenn Milne
[The health debate earlier this year was as good an example as any of his ability to speak directly to voters, and as you no doubt saw, they responded to him in kind.]
He was very good in the health debate but to be completely honest with you I think he’d lost his touch by the end. When he was good he was great, but other times he was infuriating. Gillard is a much better speaker all around.
[PVO = Peter Van onselen from Sky news and The Australian newspaper mysay.]
I believe he’s also (or at least used to be) an academic at Edith Cowan University.
[Phoney in WA just declared that he will be the next Prime Minister ]
in what context, that is unbeleivable
Julia’s ad reckons she is not for a big Australia but a sustainable Australia.
Does this mean she is going to cut immigration, and by how much?
[505
the spectator……. Rudd will have every chance of pushing to return someday.]
This is a dangerous illusion, if, indeed, Kev believes it to be true. He has no chance whatsoever of becoming Labor leader again. Even as an incumbent PM, he had alienated 4/5 of the caucus. He has no support base in the party, in the media or with the public. His greatest supporters these days are in the Liberal Party, who regret they will not be able to crawl over his political carcass to regain office.
PEFO to be released on Monday.
My say,
Could you have a look at my post @ 592, please and get back to me on it.