Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston

The Advertiser has published a survey of 605 voters in the seat of Kingston in southern Adelaide, which Labor’s Amanda Rishworth holds with a margin of 4.5 per cent, and it shows Labor with a frankly unbelievable two-party lead of 67-33. On the primary vote, Rishworth leads Liberal candidate Chris Zanker 58 per cent to 25 per cent, with the Greens on 9 per cent and Family First on 6 per cent. Respondents favoured Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott by 68 per cent to 22 per cent, which panned out to 73 per cent to 17 per cent among women. Labor’s primary vote lead was 61 per cent to 24 per cent among women and 55 per cent to 27 per cent among men. Labor was rated best to handle asylum seekers by 44 per cent against 34 per cent for the Liberals. While The Advertiser’s Mark Kenny candidly acknowledges the likelihood the poll is a “rogue”, he also reports “party research shows that none of the previously marginal Labor seats is in danger of falling”. The question would seem to be whether Gillard’s local popularity can sweep them to victory in the Adelaide Liberal marginals of Boothby and Sturt.

UPDATE: More from Possum, who finds the poll’s “internals” curiously convincing.

Further polling factoids:

• Morgan has published preferred prime minister ratings from a phone poll of 719 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, which shows Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott 58-29 among all voters, 62-22 among women and 54-36 among men. Gillard’s approval rating is 58 per cent and her disapproval rating is 26 per cent, while Abbott’s respective figures are 42 per cent and 48 per cent. These represent huge improvements for Gillard on the phone poll Morgan conducted in the week after the leadership change, which showed the Coalition with an anomalous 51.5-48.5 lead on two-party preferred. A separate Morgan release details questions on preferred Labor leader, with Gillard on 52 per cent, Kevin Rudd on 21 per cent, Wayne Swan on 7 per cent and Stephen Smith on 6 per cent, and also for preferred Liberal leader, with Malcolm Turnbull on 29 per cent, Tony Abbott on 24 per cent, Joe Hockey on 24 per cent and Julie Bishop on 8 per cent. Channel Seven has reported it will have exclusive Morgan poll results tomorrow evening: presumably these will be figures on voting intention from the same survey, and if the leadership figures are anything to go by it will be very much more favourable to Labor than last time. No doubt Morgan will also publish separate results tomorrow from last weekend’s face-to-face polling.

• Not entirely sure what the story is here, but Possum tweets of Galaxy polling from Brisbane marginals showing Labor ahead 55-45 in Petrie and 52-48 in Bowman, but tied with the LNP in Brisbane and Ryan.

• The Illawarra Mercury has published a none-too-illuminating finding from an IRIS poll of 306 respondents on its local turf, showing approval for Julia Gillard at 51 per cent. However, with “close to one-third” undecided it would appear that hesitant respondents were not pressed to offer a leaning one way or another, as per pollsters’ normal practice. Electorates covered by the poll are safe Labor Cunningham and Throsby, and marginal Liberal Gilmore.

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend, which aggregates various national polls, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

797 comments on “Advertiser poll: 67-33 to Labor in Kingston”

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  2. [I believe he’s also (or at least used to be) an academic at Edith Cowan University]

    Plus a former Abbott staffer. A revelation I was unaware of until Paul Howes outed him.

  4. [Senator Joyce said the idea (the Citizens Assembly) was a joke

    “What are you going to say? ‘Come on down … you’ve won a prize, you get to select Australia’s climate change policy’,” he said.

    “What happens the next week? They select the defence policy, and the week after that the foreign affairs policy and the week after that another 150 people to balance the books – mind you, they’d probably do a better job.”]

  5. [During his Perth radio interview, Tony Abbott has said that Gillard’s consultative assembly idea is a “camouflage for Julia GIllard’s plan to bring in a price on carbon”.

    “We will get a carbon tax if this government is re-elected,” he said.

    He also mentioned the “secret deal” the government has done with the Greens.

    Abbott is obviously keen to push this line and play up fears of the rising cost of living, and how it might be affected by a price on carbon.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/you-heard-the-speech-now-check-the-tweet-pms-giant-focus-group-20100723-10ncj.html

    I also heard Joe Hockey saying the same thing a short while ago in between saying ‘real action’ many times in a few short sentences. Greg Hunt is out there saying ‘new tax on electricity’.

    There you go Green voters – you’re going to get a carbon tax so go out there and help elect a Labor government cos you won’t get what you want with the Libs in power.

  6. Does this mean she is going to cut immigration, and by how much?

    That’s an entirely reasonable question, TTH.

    Where did you find it?

  7. Adam there is more to education than building a school hall here and there.

    Shame the ALP hasnt figured that out yet.

  8. [641
    Fulvio Sammut

    Briefly, it would also seem that defense Chiefs of Staff attended. Are they not public servants also? Is not the staffer paid by the public service?]

    Officials attend these meetings, of course. But they do not take the place of the Ministers. If a Minister was going to be absent, another Minister could take their place if necessary. But staff are not Ministers.

    Kev tried to run things as a petite President might. This was just completely wrong in both principal and in practice, as we all have seen.

  11. [Joe Hockey … saying ‘real action’ many times in a few short sentences]

    And will the media count the number of times he and his associates chant this slogan?

    Or how frequently they chant GBNT?

    Of course not. The media only want to count Labor’s use of their slogan.

  12. [Adam there is more to education than building a school hall here and there.]
    You mean like $400 million for improving teacher training? Which the Liberals would cut.
    Like getting computers in schools? Which the Liberals would cut.
    Like trades training centres? Which the Liberals would cut.
    Like a national curriculum? Which the Liberals promised, but never implemented.
    Like the MySchool website? Which the Liberals were against before they supported.

  14. [Of course not. The media only want to count Labor’s use of their slogan.]
    That\’s cos the ABC funds the CIA which is for the Liberals.

  15. Woman holding baby on ABC24 says that climate change needs to be explained in simpler terms. How about this:
    [WE NEED A CARBON TAX ELSE YOUR BABY WILL DIE!]

  16. briefly,

    You and Ltep are giving me diarrhoea with your nonsense. Give it up for goodness sakes.

    Why don’t both of you just put your hands up for an Abbott victory and be done with it rather than this back door dancing around.

  17. [$400 million]

    Wow 400m yeah that will help! It’s a spit in the ocean and not nearly enough!

    Computers in schools! HA cant get that policy right thanks to State Labor. BTW Children should be given them, they should rent them (they’d take better care of them).
    National Curriculum still a mess.
    MySchool is a waste of time and does not given parents a real understanding of the worth of a school.

  18. Briefly, I have no issue with the principle that only elected decision makers make decisions.

    But I have seen nothing to suggest that the staffer in question was involved in that process, or that his attendance there was for that purpose.

    Have you?

  20. [BH
    typed
    …..
    There you go Green voters – you’re going to get a carbon tax so go out there and help elect a Labor government cos you won’t get what you want with the Libs in power.]

    Haven’t you noticed BH, there has been a deal, a preferences swap, Labor gets the house, the Greens get the balance of power in the senate.

  21. Fulvio Sammut. Slightly off topic. Do you remember when you posted regarding your assessment of Rudd’s demise, the media’s influence? I recall it being a pretty accurate summary. I wouldn’t mind it being re-posted.

  22. [WE NEED A CARBON TAX ELSE YOUR BABY WILL DIE!]

    Cut the crap.

    Australia’s global emissions are 1 tenth of stuff all.

    The Greenies in this country think Australia cutting 5% of our 2% of global emmissions will save the planet. What complete and total crap. It’s feel good, bleeding heart, tree hugging nonsense.

    If you wanna cut Carbon emissions talk to China and the U.S and stop wasting everyones time.

  23. [The media only want to count Labor’s use of their slogan.

    That\’s cos the ABC funds the CIA which is for the Liberals.]

    So do you acknowledge the media’s double-standards? For months the Coalition have been chanting “Great Big New Tax … Great Big New Tax”, and the media, rather than challenging them about emissions trading NOT being a “tax”, have gone out of their way to propagate the slogan.

    It’s been chanted hundreds of times, and I haven’t seen the media counting the number, or even mentioning its overuse.

    Yet on the very day that Labor launched its campaign slogan, suddenly the media was saying, “Quick! Let’s count the number of times Gillard uses it and mock her!”

  24. [Adam there is more to education than building a school hall here and there.]

    Indeed there is. Did you read the caption to the photo, Glen? New CLASSROOMS, at a Catholic school in your electorate. Which your party has opposed and ridiculed for two years? And what do you think the Catholic parents of Elwood are going to conclude, hmm?

  25. [Briefly, I have no issue with the principle that only elected decision makers make decisions.]
    Write something funny.

  26. The ALP should be happy with the Libs scare campaign. Clearly, orthodox environmental policy considers that subjecting carbon emissions to a price mechanism is the best way forward in dealing with climate change.

    The ALP can’t come out before the election and say this – the Libs would hammer the GBNT line. But by the Libs playing along and saying they will, they are effectively laying the groundwork within the community to consider the ALP the best party to deal with climate change. An unintended byproduct.

  27. [Glen
    Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 5:04 pm

    Adam there is more to education than building a school hall here and there.

    Shame the ALP hasn’t figured that out yet.]

    But if you have to dump money on the economy, building the school halls might be a good ideas. Beats Bernanke’s suggestion of throwing money out of a helicopter I think.

  29. [So do you acknowledge the media’s double-standards? For months the Coalition have been chanting “Great Big New Tax …]
    Yes the ABC is the most biased media organisation in Australia. Anyone who thinks otherwise works for News Limited.

  30. pI saw Jim Middleton on there at about 5:30 a.m. this morning and he did two good pieces, one on asylum seekers and the insignificance of the numbers involved and the other on debt levels, going some way to explode the myth that they are at dangerous amounts and requiring urgent attention.]

    geezlouise – geeze, I saym, 5.30am!!! What’s wrong with showing it in prime time or are they too scared it might show up the myths perpetrated by their beloved Coalition.

    Middleton’s a reasonable guy so that’s probably why they buried him at 5.30am. We can’t have those types on in prime time tho.

  31. Does anyone esle get the feeling that the first week of the election campaign has been the “phoney campaign”?

    Both sides are really treading water, trying to negate issues, while putting out piddling policies.

    For Gillard, it seems like her strategy is exactly what it would have been if she was going to see the GG tomorrow.

    For Tone, he is just trying to negate workchoices, badly but hey.

    Will the real election campaign begin after the debate? I hope so.

  32. Labors idea of an education revolution is a $800 000 tuckshop too small to accomodate a double door fridge.

  33. [$400 million

    Wow 400m yeah that will help! It’s a spit in the ocean and not nearly enough!]

    Remember that the Howard Party sent funding for tertiary education (a federal government responsibility) into reverse. Against the trend of our OECD competitors and trading partners, who raised their funding by an average of 47 per cent.

  34. [Labors idea of an education revolution is a $800 000 tuckshop too small to accomodate a double door fridge.]
    Yeah, like you would spend $800,000 on a TV instead.

  35. Just for a bit of fun, what people’s predictions for the first outlet/journalists to start banging on about “the narrowing”? ABC 24 is looking good for it in my books.

  36. Morgan Today

    “The latest telephone Morgan Poll conducted during the first week of the Federal Election campaign finds Two-Party preferred support for the ALP is 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%. Since Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the Federal Election the Morgan Poll has conducted two Federal voting intention polls. The Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend – the weekend the election was called (July 17/18, 2010) showed the ALP clearly ahead on a Two-Party preferred basis – ALP (56%) cf. L-NP (44%). If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily. This week’s telephone Morgan Poll (conducted on the nights of July 20/21, 2010) shows the ALP primary vote is 44%, ahead of the L-NP 38.5%, the Greens at 11.5%, Family First 2% and Independents/ Others 4%. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 122, with 54.5% of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 32.5% that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.”

    feed://www.roymorgan.com/roymorgan/rss/roymorgan_FedPolls.xml

  37. [Wow 400m yeah that will help! It’s a spit in the ocean and not nearly enough!

    Computers in schools! HA cant get that policy right thanks to State Labor. BTW Children should be given them, they should rent them (they’d take better care of them).
    National Curriculum still a mess.
    MySchool is a waste of time and does not given parents a real understanding of the worth of a school.]

    Once a Liberal hack always a Liberal hack.

  39. [TheTruthHurts
    Posted Friday, July 23, 2010 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    Labors idea of an education revolution is a $800 000 tuckshop too small to accomodate a double door fridge.]

    TTH I think, Psephos point was; there will be real openings of real facilities attended by real voters and that the liberal parties meme ( how many times have I seen those words trotted out) won’t amount to much.

  40. As a teacher I think that computers for each student is an “ideal” but is not practical and proper for all students. The money would have been better spent on computing facilities in schools. The practical problems with computers in schools are sooooo big.

    Surprisingly, the students are not as tech savvy as I thought and have (generally) little idea about technology and how it functions.

  42. [He was very good in the health debate but to be completely honest with you I think he’d lost his touch by the end. ]

    Well I have my own views on why that was, which I’ve already posted and don’t intend rehashing again.

    The fact is he is no longer PM, and Labor and its supporters should be thankful that the government had a deputy who could step up and take on the mantle. I also think Rudd is too much of a talent to simply leave languishing on the backbench. Further, him being a backbencher won’t stop media speculation (look at Costello), so the obvious thing in my view is for Gillard to remain true to her word, and offer him a Cabinet post.

  44. Most of the DLP’s voters came back to Labor long ago, and this is one reason why. The other is that most Catholic voters don’t like the nasty narrow minded socially punitive Protestant ethic of the Liberal Party, as encapsulated by WorstChoices.

  45. Re lady with the baby what a brilliant example.

    Will global warming kill the baby? Probably not even in a worse case scenario.

    Will a carbon tax increase the cost of heating / cooling the baby’s room? Probably
    Would the greens proposal threaten mum and dad’s jobs? Probably

    Will all this expense and unemplownt save bane’s life if global warming is real and only Australia acts? No
    Wo

  46. [Haven’t you noticed BH, there has been a deal, a preferences swap, Labor gets the house, the Greens get the balance of power in the senate.]

    Fredn – but in 5 or so marginals that Labor need to pick up the Greens will not be directing preferences because the local candidates do not want to. Stiff cheddar if those 5 marginals turn out to be important.

  47. [639
    scorpio

    It seems to me this was another example of Kevinocracy: the attempted rule of the country by one person.

    I am very glad this experiment is over.

    It seems you are more than keen to experience the Abbott experiment.

    Kersebleptes has totally nailed your problem.]

    K does not know what he or she is talking about, and nor do you, scorpio. I just have a different view from you about Kev. I am a dyed-in-the-wool Labor voter and I have no wish to experience an Abbott government.

    I said it on the day she became Labor leader and I’ll say it again: Thank goodness Gillard stepped up to the mark and did her duty. It did not come soon enough for me.

    The simple facts are, a Gillard-lead Labor Party is going to give the Liberals an absolute pasting. This will be the cause of great jubilation for me. Whereas, were Kev still the PM, we would probably be facing irreversible defeat. I am completely clear in my own mind that the best interests of Labor, the Government and the country have been well served by Gillard and the caucus.

  50. The fact that the media are continuing to attack Kevin Rudd even when he’s well and truly down show sthe bastardry he had to contend with from them. Any wonder he was paranoid and distrustful.

    The ALP, being pragmatic, had no option but to replace him before the campaign because there’s no way on earth the agenda-media would have “allowed” him an election victory.

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