Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

3,546 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

1. Rudd should get Kochie as his Propaganda Minister. Kochie gave the best line on the Super Tax i have heard so far.

   He said: “The miners are afraid of to be super profitable? because that is how the tax will be applied, when your mining project becomes super profitable”.

2. It would be good for someone to do some qualitative polling on “Why do you reject the mining tax?”

3. The gutwrenching photos (for those that care about animals) of oil drenched birds coming out of the US is, I believe, a factor in the rise of the Greens vote too

4. If the Greens prefer Abbott Govt to Rudd Govt, then they can swim in their own vomits. There – I’ve said it.

5. Finns
   Yes!

6. Hmmmm…..looks like Abbott is a drag on his party’s numbers.

   Just as much argument for the Libs to change leader as there is for Labor, but where’s all the media spruiking for….er….Julie Bishop?

7. [Just as much argument for the Libs to change leader as there is for Labor, but where’s all the media spruiking for….er….Julie Bishop?]
   Mesma’s the best protection a poor leader can have.

8. Interesting article from Ross Gittins in this mornings SMH – says Keynes rather than the miners saved the economy.
   Funnily enough, Ross doesn’t mention that Rudd had something to do with it.

   But Gittins article proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the miner’s ad campaign involves misleading and deceptive conduct. Normally, that would be a breach of Section 52 of the Trade Practices Act. But because the miners are engaging in political discourse, not trade or commerce (I kid you not), the Act doesn’t apply and they can get away with it. What a wonderful wheeze.

9. BK / Finnigans – but, of course, Bob Brown doesn’t want a Rudd government after the next election, because then he might actually have to make some real political decisions for once in his life. He would much prefer the purity of the wildness.

10. [But Gittins article proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the miner’s ad campaign involves misleading and deceptive conduct. Normally, that would be a breach of Section 52 of the Trade Practices Act. But because the miners are engaging in political discourse, not trade or commerce (I kid you not), the Act doesn’t apply and they can get away with it. What a wonderful wheeze.]
    Then if it is not trade or commerce their contributions should not be tax deductable.

11. BK – couldn’t agree more. But I get they’ll wheeze it somehow.

    Of course, the ads should be totally banned with their present funding. The only people who should be allowed to contribute to the mining councils campaign are Australian citizens (including any shareholders of BHP and Rio prepared to tip in some money).

    The law must be changed to ensure that happens in the future.

    though, I must say I saw some of the mining ads last night and thought they were so fluffy and insubstantial that they won’t really change anyone’s vote. They were like one of those bank “brand” ads that didn’t really give anyone anything to chew on. All I took away from them was that the mining coy’s don’t want to pay any more tax, but they’ve got plenty of money to throw at glossy ads. Had no political bite.

12. [Then if it is not trade or commerce their contributions should not be tax deductable.]

    Good one BK – perhaps Bob Brown could have that added to the bill he is presenting this week in the Senate re advertising.

    What is Sarah H-Y going to say if Greens 2nd pref. are given to the Libs who, according to Neilsen, have 2/3rds support for the Pacific Solution. That figure is disturbing and its no wonder that Labor was always worried about the AS problem.

    Now we have Dick Smith making a documentary about population which will come out just before the election. So we get dogwhistles from the right and left.

13. I note that half the Nielsen poll seems to have been taken on Saturday night. If I recall, on Saturday night I saw some stories about new asylum boats turning up. Any chance that influenced the poll?

14. Coverage of another aspect of Newspoll. Needless to say, there was not a mention of the RSPT and Super tax being linked concepts:

    [MOST Australians favour the government’s move to increase the national superannuation rate and more than half are willing to to sacrifice wages to fund the proposal.

    A national Newspoll released yesterday by the Australian Institute of Superannuation Trustees showed 77 per cent of workers supported the planned gradual rise in the 9 per cent superannuation guarantee to 12 per cent by 2019.

    More than half — 56 per cent — said they would be happy to pay for the 3 per cent increase out of their wages.

    The government’s response to the Henry tax review included a gradual increase in the compulsory superannuation guarantee rate to 12 per cent over seven years.

    Institute chief executive Fiona Reynolds said the findings should prompt the Coalition to support the reform…”This is good social policy that deserves bipartisan support, particularly when the vast majority of Australians are backing it.”

    The rate increase was accompanied by the government cutting the corporate tax rate from 30 per cent to 28 per cent to allow business to fund the higher super contribution.
    …
    The survey of 1206 respondents, conducted at the end of May, included 728 full-time or part-time workers.

    It found that many Australians were not confident they would have enough saved for retirement.

    Only 40 per cent of people aged 50 years and older were confident they would have enough to retire on, compared with 50 per cent of younger people aged up to 34.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/majority-support-rise-in-national-supererannuation-rate/story-e6frg8zx-1225876224464

15. BH – I agree. But it’s not just about tax deductibility. when are people going to start realise that, in Australia, only Australian citizens should be allowed to run political advertising campaigns. Otherwise we’re in danger of becoming a corporate colony. BHP and Rio (fictional entities) have NO POLITICAL RIGHTS. People should stop acting as if they are citizens with arms and legs and (presumably) brains.

16. too early..delete “tax” after Super in 163…more caffeine please

17. Laocoon – I think you can take all of the polls on the mining tax and toss them into a bin. They don’t really mean anything. People just can’t be bothered thinking about the issues. They’ll only think about them during an election campaign.

18. Oh, and what an unbelievably dreary effort from Peter Beatty on the radio / tv this morning. Am I to take it he absolutely hates Rudd? Is there some agenda there? They guy claims he’s retiring for public life, but keeps crapping on like he’s running for office. I suppose that won’t stop until he draws his last breath. Bye bye Peter. Hopefully we won’t hear from you again.

19. For godsakes, will someone please assure me there is absolutely no chance that the libs will turn to Malcolm?

20. Well, it seems Abbott’s wreck-everything tactics have worked for the time being.

    The voters are saying they are against stimulus during a recession, wish they hadn’t had all that school construction and the 200,000 jobs that came with it, don’t want computers for their kids, or an NBN that will bring us into the modern world, aren’t worried about Work Choices coming back, don’t care about Asylum Seekers, or insulated homes, or Health Reform, or a lowering of company tax, or an increase in superannuation, or better dental care, and that they do want austerity, radical Catholic social policies and most of all, that they are quite happy with Tony Abbott as PM, no matter how much they loathe him personally, leading a team comprising the shallow Julie Bishop, the prat-like Chris Pyne, the bloviating Joe Hockey and the inspirational Andrew Robb.

    Or if they want any of the above they don’t want to pay for it, which is even more pathetic.

    They are flocking to the Greens, but are happy to put them into a position where none of their policies will ever get up, not in a million years, led by a man who wants to shut down coal mining, tax the miners 50%, raise company tax to 33% and generally to main line fairy dust as he walks along the yellow brick road.

    Bunch of losers, who seem to be happy to put the noose around their own necks and then, with the hood over their heads, shuffle over and pull the lever.

21. BB
    Perfect encapsulation . . . . . again!

    It just doesn’t add up.

22. Rosa – can you precise what Beattie said please.

23. BK – they’re giving the govt a kick in the pants, as they always do.

    I was just chatting to someone who ran as a democrat candidate a long time ago and he said that in the old days the combined democrat / green vote primary vote used to be even more than 15 per cent. This is really a return to those days, but the green are hoovering up all those votes.

24. John Stirton:

    Voters have gone from being close to evenly split on the mining tax in May to a substantial gap opening this month, fuelled by the industry’s campaign and argument about the government’s advertising. The TV ads started yesterday.

    That a bunch of foreign, over-paid, over-fed mining executives swanning in on their personal jets, closing down projects that mostly don’t exist, and spreading taxpayer funded money over a self-serving advertising campaign, aided an abetted by a Leader Of The Opposition who claims they are paying too much tax is astonishing.

    That pique the public feels over the government spending a very modest amount of money on a counter-campaign, compared to their opposition, would cause them to actually stop listening to a message they say they approve of is stupefying.

    They have set the moral bar higher for Labor than they ever did for the Coalition. They have required the government, despite the world’s greatest financial crisis taking out a full year in the middle of its first term (and still washing trhough), despite a viciously hostile Senate that has failed to pass just about ever major piece of their legislation, to stick 100% to its policy platform at the last election and no excuses if it hasn’t. No blame is attached to the Coalition for refusing to allow legislation that the public voted for Labor to enact. It is all Rudd’s fault. Abbott’s reward for his wrecking, lying and nastiness is to be put 6 points ahed of Labor in the polls.

    We Aussies are a fickle lot: spoilt, ungrateful, forgetful, scared, cowed and wowserish. We are the leading country in the G20 on economic performance, against the wishes of the Coalition who fought tooth and nail to send us under by attempting to dry up the Stimulus and who have signalled further Draconian cost cutting for the Holy Grail of achieving a surplus that will be put in a glass case and never spent, if they get their way.

    We are in a lifeboat launched by Labor and we are arguing about the seating arrangements, the color of the life-jackets and any other fault we can find, while other countries drown. We have a vague notion that there should be less government, blaming every misfortune in our lives upon it, but looking to it to save us from destitution when times are tough… only to stab it in the back when we are high and dry again.

    We Aussies are a fickle lot: spoilt, ungrateful, forgetful, scared and cowed. It has been forever thus, and sadly shows no sign of abating.

25. Well, after listening to monica attard go on about the “bungled” insulation scheme and the “scandal” of the BER without demure (she’s a shocker), he went on about how there was a potential sovereign risk because the mining companies hadn’t been properly consulted about the mining tax. He didn’t say it was a bad tax (though I turned it off before the end), but he kept banging on about lack of consultation and sovereign risk.

26. Bushfire – I hope you’re right that the govt has taken a bit of a hit because of the ad campaign, because that will be a very superficial wound. Further, the longer people see the Mining Council Ad (which didn’t impress me much, I must say: hardly touched the sides) the more they will understand the govt has to fight back (maybe).

    In fact, I think you are right. I think the ad campaign is just the sort of thing to get people riled up (short-term).

27. Well, after listening to monica attard go on about the “bungled” insulation scheme and the “scandal” of the BER without demure (she’s a shocker)…

    We can write posts here whenever we want to. Journos today have to write to a 24/7 schedule. It’s so much easier to just put up what everyone else is saying. If enough people say it it becomes the truth anyway.

28. Bushfire – as I’ve said above, the last thing that Bob Brown wants is to hold the balance of power with a labor govt. Then he might have to actually make a few political decisions for once in his life.

29. Thanks Rosa – Beattie and Bligh -can’t keep their mouths closed. Bligh hasn’t got an election for a couple of years and yet the media played up her comments last week to mean the the Govt. was in the wrong. Beattie must be looking for a big mining job.

    BB – I am a bit angry, make that a lot, with the Govt. for laying so low about their achievements. I speak to people who can’t point to anything they’ve done, not even pension increases because they say that Labor only did it because the Libs and pensioners ran a campaign on it in 2008. Kev can’t win.

    I don’t think they can stand back any longer – I even think Psephos is too complacent. Abbott is not going to self destruct without the media helping that along and we know that’s not going to happen. They were happy to blow up Latham but they won’t do the same with Abbott.

    How do you suggest they counteract all this.

30. We read newspapers full of celebrity pap, footy star drama and wowserish moralising, always against the other person. We like to think we, personally, are free of taint, that we, personally, lead exemplary lives. This allows us to kick anyone we see as beneath us, even if only temporarily, in the guts until they scream. It makes us feel better about our miserable selves, gives our lives some colour and meaning they would not have otherwise had.

    This gnat-like attention span, combined with the spiteful inclination to make ourselves feel good by damgaing others also now applies to politics. We don’t care whether the government’s policies have saved us, or will make our lives better. We’ll vote against them because it’s fun to kick someone when they’re down, or even if they fail to deliver perfection. John Stirton tells us sagely that if an ad campaign’s motivations don’t meet our approval, we’ll vote against our own interests and expressed desires. There’s nothing like someone else on the back foot when you need to take your mind off your own troubles. You join the mob and start kicking. It’s more fun to kick them for the way they are saying something, than it is consider what they are saying.

    We Australians feel we deserve to be an isolated, trembling bunch of losers under the thumbs of an authoritarian business sector and a potential Coalition government that hasn’t said the same thing twice, they twist so much in the wind. Of course we don’t see ourselves in that negative light. We’re winners. We beat the GFC. We deserved to beat it because we’re blessed. That allows us to join in the bashing, have some fun diverting ourselves from our woes for just an instant, enough time to blame the other bloke.

31. It looks like the wise heads who counselled Labor inaction late last year and over the Xmas break were wrong. It looks like the government should have been trumpeting its achievements.

    I hope that now we can have a bit more Machiavelli and a little less of Enid Blyton.

    Or is that being too realistic?

32. BH – I think we’re in the middle of a phoney war at the moment (no pun intended). It will all (hopefully) come right when an election is called and people start to focus on the real issues. People won’t start thinking about what this govt has done over the last three years until they’re in the polling booth. Way it goes, I’m afraid.

33. I wish people wouldn’t just simplify this down to the GFC, stimulus and the RSPT. There are multiple issues that have chipped away Labor’s vote at the edges. There are still ways that it could be repaired. This may be a protest vote poll, but if the protest is large enough to change the government then the government needs to change some policies!

    The ban on Afghan and Sri Lankan asylum seekers was a cynical stunt that didn’t convince the rabid right but did make progressive voters realise that Rudd is better at moralising than morality. Can it be undone?

    The CPRS decision was a mistake, but surely something else can be done in its place? Surely Rudd could at least say he will negotiate on a CPRS if teh Greens hold the balance of power after the next Senate election? Putting it off for 3 years is unacceptable. 80% of Green preferences probably do go to Labor, but that still means 205 go to the coalition. If Labor has shed 10% to the Greens that means that 2% went to the coalition.

    Labor should look less at its polls and more at its policies. If they do that the polls will take care of themselves. Focusing on polls alone is a self defeating strategy, because after a while it becomes clear the government is valueless.

34. BB – I am a bit angry, make that a lot, with the Govt. for laying so low about their achievements. I speak to people who can’t point to anything they’ve done, not even pension increases because they say that Labor only did it because the Libs and pensioners ran a campaign on it in 2008. Kev can’t win.

    Rudd needs to let loose the dogs. He’s too much of an engineer. He doesn’t like spruiking because he’s not very good at it. It’s a common engineer’s malady. They strive for perfection so the product will sell itself. Then they sit back and wait for the phone to ring.

    Someone has to get out there and sell, yelling from the rooftops how good the government has been, despite an obstructive Senate, a hostile business sector (that can’t even bring itself to publicly welcome a company tax cut), a mob-mentality public that wants all the goodies from the mining tax but not the tax itself, and a hostile, shallow, glitz-and-scandal obsessed media running on groupthink.

    It seems the time for good governance, sober policy and serious planning is past. That’s the old fashion. It’s carnival time and we need a carnival barker, not the quiet, serious guy who actually designed and built the merry-go-round, but someone in a straw hat and a striped shirt to bring in the mugs.

    Surviving the GFC has made the Australian people believe they are blessed, that no harm can ever come to them, that they are so bullet-proof they can afford to toss out the government which saved them. They need to be first forcefully informed of the truth and then reminded of it relentlessly. No more time for modesty. It’s down to bums on seats.

35. Socrates – agree with you. I’m pretty sure that as the election campaign gets nearer, Rudd is going to make it even clearer that a new ETS will be first cab off the rank. I thought he’d already intimated that.

    Bushfire – if the electorate is presently giving the Govt a kick in the pants because there is no ETS right now (for whatever reason) that is a good thing and to their credit. If they’re ultimately stupid enough to vote for the libs, that is a bad thing (and they will pay in spades). Don’t think they’ll be that dopey.

36. Lurk – I think the govt’s problem is that it’s been a bit too machiavellian. Sometimes, it’s over-calculated, particularly on the ETS. When I heard about the shelving I (wrongly) thought, smart move, because I knew they were still committed to it. But it didn’t go over like that in the community. The community didn’t realise they were just trying to get it off the budget books for a while.

37. As Glen would say, BULLBUTTER!!!

    No seriously , good work Frank in polishing a turd, but the poll is a turd no less. Hard to see how Labor stocks have dropped further when the major errors in the last month have been the opposition’s. Hoping that at some point the MSM and the public will scrutinise the alternative.

    Interesting to hear Sky’s Gilbert on ABC (Murdochisation of ABC aside). He was suprisingly balanced, pointed out Abbott’s weaknesses and mentioned Howard coming from behind. The MSM must stop giving Abbott a leg-up.

    Welcome back to the fair-weather coalition supporters liek John who havent bothered to post for 2 1/2 years andhave sudden renewed interest.

    As for me, I’ve had enough of stressing about polls for now, and am going take a break.

38. The community didn’t realise they were just trying to get it off the budget books for a while.

    They were not infomed of this, and still haven’t been.

39. I’m sadly not surprised that fear campaigns, xenophobia and dog whistling work for the Conservatives & their media associates!
    A poll like today’s makes me want to give up in frustration and not even bother voting next time – and it makes no frigging difference what I vote for anyway, living in a safe Liberal electorate!
    If the majority of the Australian community care more about keeping a few thousand asylum seekers away from our territory and appeasing a bunch of rich, fat mining executives, so be it, there’s f*** all I can do to change it!
    And the Greens won’t be getting my vote either – we know what Bob Brown’s game is………win the balance of power in the Senate and help the Coalition to win the Lower House.
    Truth Hurts and GP: you’ve won, enjoy your victory!
    As for the refugess, the unemployed, single parents, the poor – you know what you’re in for under an Abbott Government, and it won’t be pretty!

40. The thing in Aus. politics is: people end up not listening to the polls or the media. Go back to the 2007 election campaign. Mr Rudd was going to run it close. Mr Rudd was going to lose. Mr Howard had a chance. I remember reading some journalist or other positing the Government winning, but Mr Howard losing his seat! People don’t listen to this stuff.

    Otherwise, we’d still have Mr Howard or Mr Costello by now.

41. And………if it has to be done, Rudd must be replaced by Gillard or Tanner or even Stephen Smith – anything to avoid that turd Abbott getting into the Lodge.

42. Socrate – I agree with you re policy. The election campaign may not be long enough to change the image that has been built up in the past few months so they need to be on it now.

    I think the focus in QT is wrong. The Govt. is pointing out what will be cut under Abbott. I think Abbott is sitting back knowing that he has things in his locker that he will bring out. Pyne said the schools money won’t be cut. There will be more of that so Labor needs to be concentrating on the good stuff they have done and defend what has gone wrong and how it is being fixed. Forget the Opposition- concentrate on getting their stuff right.

    Abbott made a fool of himself yesterday at the Italian lunch in Sydney. The SMH has written it up – will anyone else in the media make anything of it? Will it be discussed on Dimsiders. I think not.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/hugs-and-heckles-as-abbott-digs-himself-a-hole-20100606-xn88.html

43. Andrew – the more the MSM talks up abbott’s chances, the better, because the less chance of a protest vote.

44. Once a conman is exposed, he’s run out of town pretty quickly. It took a while, but finally the majority have woken up. It’s now up to Abbott to hold it together and seal this fools fate.

    The danger for the Libs is that Rudd will be tossed out before the end of this month and Gillard put in his spot. That will give the ALP a shot in the arm that could take it to a win.

    If I were Abbott I’d be laying off the PM and concertrating on the top 4. Rudd’s now been isolated by the voters – the Libs need to take down the other 3.

45. Guys, you’ve got to stop living in the past. Govts run on what they’re going to do in the future. Sit around on your laurels and you will get a terrible caning. Like I said, the voters will think about that before they vote. But belabouring the point won’t help much.

46. Shelving the CPRS was a huge mistake – I think there is no doubt about this.

    The question is, can they resurrect it now in a different form – say, closer to Garnaut’s original recommendations – bring the Greens and lefty Libs on board and get it through the parliament before an election is called?

    Are the numbers sufficient and is it even possible?

47. Billy – entirely agree with your strategy. Hope you’ve communicated it to Tone.

48. Are the rats coming put of the sewers yet

    I fully expect raptorous posts about how lucky that most are swayed by the quasi fascists

    perhaps the idea of bashing up unemployed,migrants and non whiteys has given the rascist in the elctorate a new chance to play trouser billiards

    🙁

49. Sorry William and everyone for the rant – it felt good getting that off my chest, now I’ll be a good boy for the rest of today! 😉

50. Tonight’s Q&A: Scott Morrison vs Chris Bowen!

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