GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.
Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.
UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.
That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.
| SUPPORT | OPPOSE | strong | weak/all | weak/all | strong | |
| Nielsen (1400) | National | Jun 3-6 | 41 | 49 | ||
| Galaxy (800) | Queensland | Jun 2-3 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 32 |
| Newspoll (600) | Qld marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| Newspoll (600) | WA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 41 |
| Newspoll (600) | SA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 21 |
| Morgan (655) | National | May 26-27 | 44 | 48 | ||
| Westpoll (400) | Brand | May 25-26 | 25 | 56 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 19-23 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 14 |
| Morgan (571) | National | May 12-13 | 41 | 52 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 4-9 | 52 | 34 | ||
| Nielsen (1400) | National | May 6-8 | 44 | 47 | ||
| Morgan (669) | National | May 4-5 | 47 | 45 | ||
UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).
No 96
HEAR HEAR. Truthy for PM.
briefly@97
I take my politics seriously and will NOT let ANYBODY slander the ALP – especially from so-called “ALP Supporters” who conviently parrot Liberal Party Taklking points as gospel.
YOU are one of those apologists.
You’ve been exposed as one and you’re squealing like a pig.
Menzies House must be VERY pleased.
I come here to pick up women.
Nice to see partisan nutbaggery covering the political spectrum again. Frank didn’t have any real libs to play with so he turned me into one instead.
Dinsdale Piranha@99
I’m not a Troll, I say it as I call it.
Now as for you – you’re a classic ALP person who only wants to ride on it’s succedsses, but runs away when there is a whiff of trouble.
I’m not one of those people.
I’m there for the Partyy in good times and bad -0 ot’s called loyalty.
Something which you lack it seems.
Thomas Payne @ 103. High five!
Dinsdale Piranha@105
The way you’ve deserted Kev, you could easly pass for one.
Dinsdale Piranha@90
I know, I know. Slap me, please. 😆
Generic Person@94
Yes, and I can’t even be accurately be described as a ‘Green voter’.
In general, I expect a whole lot of angst and grief and lashings-out over the next day or two from the tribal Labor emotionally rusted-ons.
A bit of History for the naysayers:
And who won that Election people ??
Think about it.
[76
Thomas Paine
Then again the next election may be one to lose. The US and Europeane are at risk of a total melt down …… It would be a very unhappy three years if all that happened….and the prospects of it are quite real.]
I’m almost with you on this, Thomas. The omens are very poor. The leading indicators in the US have turned down with alarming speed and this time the shock-absorbing structures are in poor shape. As well, the ECB – under pressure from the Bundesbank, no doubt – are intent on driving Europe into recession. I am very pessimistic about the outlook, but still hope it will not come to dire trouble.
One thing is highly likely, though. By the time any new RSPT might come into effect, mineral prices will be back where they started ten years ago and super profits will be like a momentary dream. All this drama will have been conducted for no reason at all.
Thomas Paine@103
Don’t reveal that, or Conroy will backlist us.
But I must agree it is rather easy here, isn’t it?
😆
[Ah, isn’t it glorious to see the lefty circle jerk squirm and clutch at straws by comparing Abbott with Latham. ]
Yes a better comparison and one I like to keep making is Latham and the Tassie Logging “Working Families” and Rudd and the Aussie Mining “Working Families”.
If you want to pieve the voters off, attack their jobs.
I think it’s healthy to have every dozen years of conservative government broken up by a Labor one-termer. Here’s hoping they’ll find another Rudd by 2022.
No 109
Yeah, but Rudd doesn’t have 94 seats Frank.
Frank, I have not slandered the ALP. Even if I wished to, why would I bother? You do a good job at bringing the party into disrepute with no help from me. As for talking points, you are, once again, indulging in self-serving fantasy. My thoughts and words are all entirely my own, I can assure you.
Frankie V.@113
One Neilson and you go gagga – enjoy it while you can.
We’re Coming back – and remember this:
Frank Calabrese@109
And from memory, Beazley won a majority of the popular vote in 1998, though sadly not enough votes in the right places to win the election. Rudd does not have the buffer that Howard enjoyed, and has more serious problems.
La Grattan on the Singing Syrup – and note Malcolm Farnsworth’s observation.
I will vote below the line this election and preference Greens very last and Libs second last.
I’m off. I have these things called: job, life, kids. Need sleep.
Dinsdale Piranha@121
Fair excuse. 😆
Frank, do you have any words of encouragement for the New South Wales government?
Frankie V.@122
NSW is diferent to Federal.
Chalk and cheese.
political animal@119
Yes, the tyranny of the exhaustive preferential touches us all. In the spirit of the party palace guard earlier today, “So you’d rather have the Libs in control of the Senate rather than the Greens, eh? On what policy grounds?”
Why would Murdoch want to get rid of the Rudd government when its misadventures have proven to be a gold mine for News Ltd papers.
jaundiced view@124
St Bob has all but told his minions to Vote Liberal, and that includes the Senate.
Careful what you wish for you starry eyed Green.
A Vote for The Greens is a vote for the Return of Workchoices Mark 2.
More counter-productive and misguided policy from an isolated and inconsistent Chancellor.
[Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany is poised for a “decisive” round of budget cuts that will shape government policy for years to come, fueling disagreement with U.S. officials who favor measures to step up growth.
Speaking at the start of two days of Cabinet talks in Berlin called to identify potential annual savings of 10 billion euros ($12 billion), Merkel said Europe’s debt crisis underscores the need for efforts to ensure the euro’s stability.]
Frankie V.@125
Cos they want their natural hero’s the libs to totally deregulate the media to help Una Rupert you Liberal Halfwit.
You didn’t bother to turn up last week when the other polls weren’t in your favour, but you turn up now.
Well enjoy it while it lasts cos Abbott will Mark Latham on Steroids.
From nakedcapitalism….
[Consider the example of Ireland, which has embraced austerity. Real GDP is down 12%, and nominal has shrunk nearly 19%. And nominal is what is relevant in terms of paying down debt. How is Ireland going to be able to pay down its debt when its income has collapsed 19% relative to debt levels? Answer: not. This is why Trichet has his priorities backwards.]
“ALMOST two-thirds of voters support the Coalition’s decision to reintroduce the Howard government’s ”Pacific solution” for dealing with asylum seekers who arrive by boat.”
That’s got to hurt.
Read and LEARN:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-showdown-at-the-last-chance-saloon-20100606-xn7x.html
Frankie V.@130
What hurts is that Rudd has said nothing to lead the idiots beyond of their base and baseless xenophobia.
Frankie V.@130
Noo cos the big issue is the Hip Pocket and Workchoices.
The Liberals want to bring back Workchoices Mark 2 – and Bob Brown is helping themm.
Now go back under your little rock.
I love these fly by night Libs who only rturn up when a poll is kind to them.
jaundiced view@132
Careful, your Hero Bob Brown may help bring it back.
I don’t have heroes. The ‘Great Man’ theory of history is bunk. History is made by small numbers of aware people who know what is required in changing circumstances and step up to get things done. In extreme circumstances that occurs before most of the populace knows until it’s over. That is the opposite of poll based policy and focus groups. Rudd has missed the bus though reading the timetable too closely.
135 ‘though’ = ‘through’
From Van Onsolen – Read and Weep Libs 🙂
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/failings-dont-hand-mandate-to-abbott/story-e6frg6zo-1225875698545
No 127
You’ve got to be kidding. Germany’s debt is 100% of GDP or thereabouts. Measures that contain or reduce spending are good policy.
The only thing that is misguided is the notion that countries with debt bigger than their entire economic output should keep spending like there’s no tomorrow.
What a bunch of concieted so and so’s.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/voters-warn-kevin-rudd-to-think-again/story-e6frg6nf-1225876225910
Green Gloaters Read and Learn from the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/political-purity-has-its-limits/story-e6frg71x-1225876198858
From the OO Editorial this is the pertinent bit:
Their ABC2 Breakfast are going to gloat about thier Man Abbott and the Nielsen Poll – as mentioned on a preview as part of ABC overnights.
I’m gonna mostly ignore the slide into manic depression, and instead address Paul Kavanagh back at 17:
[ The Democrats may attract the ‘Democrats demographic’ as voters become aware that the Democrats not only still exist, but are contesting this election. Parliamentary scutiny/ standards and cooperation/ compromise have collapsed without the Democrats in the Senate. ]
Well, I’m the ‘Democrats demographic’, ie: I used to vote for them. I’m centre-left in my politics, the far left irritate me (that means Socialist Alternative et al to me), and the far right scare me (One Nation / CDP etc, with worrying influence on the Liberals), so my dance card used to run Dems – Greens – Labor. I voted Brian Greig above Rachel Siewert at the 2004 election, and still wish that guy had hung in there.
To my knowledge they’ve lost registration in WA, they didn’t run in the 2008 election (which was a good time to not be a major party), and their last party event was a jelly wrestling session at the Court Hotel (what?). I liked the Democrats, I think it’s a shame they self-destructed, and I wish the few true believers left good luck, but I can’t really see them coming back. Ex-Democrats joining (or at least voting for) the Greens has the two effects of keeping the flag flying meaningfully for that corner of politics (more meaningfully than continuing on with what these days is a microparty), and moderating the more loony ends on the Greens. Both make me relatively comfortable about voting Green these days.
As for parliamentary scrutiny having collapsed, that’s the fault of an actively hostile senate where the coalition have a majority with Fielding. Sadly, one reason that majority was able to come about was the Democrats collapsing in 2004; the more notable seat in that majority was Fielding taking one from Labor, but John Cherry also lost his seat in Queensland to a fourth Lib/Nat. The Democrats losing all their seats while Howard was at his peak resulted in the current senate… we have to wait for the Greens and Xenophon to fill the gap they left.
Also: good luck to Andrew Bartlett in Brisbane, probably not destined to reduce Arch Bevis to an embarrassing footnote in history, but who knows.
That’s it!
It’s time to get the gloves off and puncture this crap that’s going on.
The Libs just cannot get that primary vote of theirs to budge. 🙂
[And the government’s standing has suffered accordingly. “This is a big protest against the government,” said the Herald’s pollster, Nielsen’s John Stirton. ”It looks like a protest against Kevin Rudd.”
This is not necessarily fatal. John Howard came back from much worse. Neither is it necessarily good news for Tony Abbott. His approval rating is falling even as his party’s fortunes are rising.]
ah yes,
You must remember this
A poll is just a poll, a slide is just a slide,
The fundamental things apply
As time goes by.
[ worked for the best part of a decade in remote Queensland mining communities. As a school principal, I earned less than the workers who cleaned the mine offices. None of the great wealth trickled down to me. Along with council workers, farmers and others, my family paid boom prices for living expenses. Companies paid inflated wages and still make massive profits because they got our minerals for a pittance.
At last we have a government trying to spread some of that wealth through lower taxes, better infrastructure and improved super. I have waited many years for my share. It’s time!
Jim Lazzarini Morayfield]
http://www.smh.com.au/national/letters/cancelled-projects-deployed-for-political-purpose-20100604-xkgr.html
Simple explanation in SMH of why we need the miners to cough up a little bit more.
Finns 146 – lovely. I’ll sing it all day long.
Another thing I came across in yesterday’s Sunday Times. There was a little story buried well into the paper, saying that John Day (currently the planning and arts minister) is fancied as the next WA treasurer after Barnett handballs the job onto someone else, as Christian Porter would like to stay as attorney-general. They acted kinda surprised, but I can’t see why… Day is one of the few Libs with previous ministerial experience (under Court in the 90’s), so he’d be a natural choice. He’s also a moderate who has voted for abortion decriminalisation in the past, and partly for that reason almost lost his seat in 2001 due to the god-botherers preferencing Labor (they did the same to Kim Hames, who lost). Hopefully he’d be less of a Thatcherite axe-man than Buswell.
Meanwhile, the mining tax wasn’t huge in the paper (compared to the rabid frothing of the West)… apparently the Moral Panic for this week is evil foreigners killing our whales to turn them into ornaments, or something. That and the footy.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but maybe it’s time to say, “Lose the battle to win the war.”
The MSM has done a real number on Rudd and it’s probably irretrievable. So perhaps let’s bring on Julia,
There – I’ve said it.