GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.
Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.
UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.
That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.
| SUPPORT | OPPOSE | strong | weak/all | weak/all | strong | |
| Nielsen (1400) | National | Jun 3-6 | 41 | 49 | ||
| Galaxy (800) | Queensland | Jun 2-3 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 32 |
| Newspoll (600) | Qld marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| Newspoll (600) | WA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 41 |
| Newspoll (600) | SA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 21 |
| Morgan (655) | National | May 26-27 | 44 | 48 | ||
| Westpoll (400) | Brand | May 25-26 | 25 | 56 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 19-23 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 14 |
| Morgan (571) | National | May 12-13 | 41 | 52 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 4-9 | 52 | 34 | ||
| Nielsen (1400) | National | May 6-8 | 44 | 47 | ||
| Morgan (669) | National | May 4-5 | 47 | 45 | ||
UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).
lefty e,
With figures like that, the miners probably will want a reduction in their tax to 25% now. Forget about 40% on profits over 6%. They won’t move on anything now.
And they certainly won’t wear an ETS or carbon tax from Rudd, Abbott, Bob Brown or Obama himself.
Tomorrow’s OO:
Newspoll in Marginal Seats comissioned by the miners:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/mining-tax-hits-alp-in-marginals/story-e6frg6n6-1225876227892?from=public_rss
[My suggestion would be for him to give one Paul Keating a call, tonight.]
Yeah Paul Keating knows how to lose an election right after just winning one three years before.
he’ll be able to give Kevvie tips on how to fill in his retirement from politics after running the country for three years.
well then, if the fights on, Scorpio, he needs to step up to plate.
What I cant stand is his persistent refusal to explain what the government’s policies are.
The small target only works in opposition. It just looks ike they’ve got something to hide when they vacate the field.
We can bang on about the meeja all we like (and they do suck) – but no outlet can ignore the PM of Australia when he makes a punchy doorstop 3 point feisty explanation about why this policy is necessary – and if we’ve listened to them on economic we’d all be unemployed cos the stimulus saved out butts – and 3000 arriving in one year is called “almost no arrivals” in several European countries.
Kick some butt Rudd!!
In any case, those who supported a double dissolution after the ETS was blocked aren’t looking quite so silly now.
SNIP: Unhinged comment deleted – The Management.
It might be grossly unfair the way the media has turned on Rudd, but that is what it is. It’s also true that leadership speculation began as News Ltd mischief-making, but this too has become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Whether Rudd is unpopular because of media groupthink or not is beside the point, if he really is the drag on Labor’s poll numbers, then he should go.
lefty e@38
That’s the crux of Rudd’s slide I was thinking tonight. Trying to be a ‘small target’ by ‘clearing the decks’ for the election. That is, cave in on everything politically difficult – climate change, refuges, Henry review, for example. I cannot believe that Rudd and his advisors genuinely thought that such a strategy would wash with the voters after the hype that Rudd had indulged in. He now appears to be just one of those Hollow Men. And no-one around him told him this would happen. Amazing.
And then to try to extricate themselves by picking up something at the last minute from the Henry review that figured not at all in the public mind – the mining tax idea, so as to appear strong and good … the preparation hadn’t been done and the result is predictably disastrous. Rudd hasn’t progressed since his Goss government days, which were anything but glorious.
‘Small target’ doesn’t even work in opposition, as Beazley proved. So how can it work in government, when you are the centre of attention. Especially when you have made a ‘rolled gold’ commitment to the greatest moral challenge of our time? Idiots.
What a bunch of nervous nellies – A MONTHLY poll which is out of whack with the last 4 national polls and you give up and let the LIbs wimn.
Look at the trend, it’s going back.
I think you would need to go back to the 1931 election to see such a bad result for Labor in WA, when Labor was reduced to just one seat (Kalgoorlie). Labor held just one seat (Fremantle, first by Kim Beazley and then by John Dawkins) following the 1975 and 77 elections, but the 2PP results (41/58 and 40/60) were somewhat better than this poll.
The RSPT is absolutely toxic in WA. If the PM cannot change it, then they will have to change the PM. It is very simple.
I am looking at the trend 59, and all I see is the ALP tumbling into a chasm once it let Abbott spook them.
I second what Lefty E is saying. Small target strategy does not work in government.
briefly@60
Onl;y if you believe Their ABC, The West & 6PR it is.
but being an apologist for Twiggy, you would say that.
Oh and don’t forget that Their ABC have been running their ads for their 45 minute Miners loe in on Four Corners since Thursday.
Of course the media has been on a consistent campaign to get Rudd. Jeeze they even got Bolt writing for the NT News as well now and most of its articles have an anti labor slant.
Also when they promote the perenial moron Tollner as NT Chief Minister material you know they thrown rational thought out the door.
If this poll is confirmed by others then of course closer to election time they should switch in Gillard, drop the mining tax, win the election, and then bring it back in mid term..putting a large piece of barb wire up the anus of the minerals crew.
Frank, we now have two polls with good sample sizes, Newspoll and Neilsen, that have Labor’s primary vote in the low- to mid-thirties. This is toxic. The national 2pp is meaningless, because there is no such thing as a combined coalition primary vote, except in a few country seats.
What exactly is going to cause this bounce-back?
Bring back Howard NOW!
It was all a mistake, an error of judgement, a lapse of insanity.
We still love Workchoices, WMD, Wheat scandal, truthy overboard, GNBT GST, 1 billion pacific solution, 250 million Govt Advertising.
Bring back the good olde days of Ruddock, Downer, Costello and Andrews, Haneef, Vivian Solon, Cornelia Rau…
Let’s just pretend GFC, CC and Obama never happened.
It was all just a bad dream of earwax, strip club gate, burke gate, heinegate.
All is forgiven and forgotten.
Say no to cricket and come back. This country needs you to now more than ever to keep interest rates low, kill the GFC and stop the hordes from invading us.
Man of Steel to the rescue 🙂
But for some good entertainment… a drummer that really enjoys his stuff.
If you haven’t seen it already.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/04/the-most-amazing-drummer_n_601268.html
[35
Frank Calabrese
briefly@32
24
jaundiced view
63-37 to Lib/Nat in WA federally? Is that a record for these waters? Crikey.
Even (the deeply revered) Gough never managed to upset West Australians quite like Kevin Rudd. This is extraordinary, but, sadly, totally predictable. The Federal Parliamentary Labor Party should get rid of Kevin Rudd immediately if they want to have any hope of winning the next election.
And give the Libs satisfaction ?]
Personally I do not think Liberal satisfaction comes into it. It is far more important that Labor has a chance to win the next election. They are gone for all money on these numbers. If Rudd can’t turn things around, he has to go. It is simple.
Dinsdale Piranha@64
Ahem, Newspoll, Essential and Morgan last week
Nuff said.
I’m confident.
You as a Green want Tony to feel relevant.
Enjooy WWorkchoices Mark 2 and locking up children behind barbed wire.
Suckers
scorpio@54
No? Well, maybe you should give Rudd a call then. Tell him all will be forgiven if, as a start:
1. He accepts the deal with the Greens on the Garnaut ETS model.
2. He proposes a policy on asylum seekers in line with our human rights obligations.
3. He addresses social equity in a non-grandstanding way and adopts the Henry review holus bolus as a start – not just the miners’ tax.
4.He explains what he is doing enthusiastically and succinctly over and over again, and has his ministers do the same.
Tell him when he’s done that we’ll get back to him on Phase 2 after the election.
😆
Frank, I shouldn’t get sucked in by your nutty comments, but what the hell. Sufficed to say, I did not get heatstroke as a 19 year old doorknocking in Brand in 1996 for Beazley to get called a Green.
I’ve shed enough blood for Labor, thanks, and had my heart broken by them too many times. If you want to believe that everything will be alright, because Labor is good and Liberal is bad, go ahead. I personally believe a bit more hard work might be involved.
And by the way, ahem, Newspoll had Labor on 35%. Terrible. I repeat: there is no such thing as a national 2PP.
Or more to the point, it is meaningless.
[62
Frank Calabrese
briefly@60
I think you would need to go back to the 1931 election to see such a bad result for Labor in WA, when Labor was reduced to just one seat (Kalgoorlie). Labor held just one seat (Fremantle, first by Kim Beazley and then by John Dawkins) following the 1975 and 77 elections, but the 2PP results (41/58 and 40/60) were somewhat better than this poll.
The RSPT is absolutely toxic in WA. If the PM cannot change it, then they will have to change the PM. It is very simple.
Onl;y if you believe Their ABC, The West & 6PR it is.
but being an apologist for Twiggy, you would say that.
Oh and don’t forget that Their ABC have been running their ads for their 45 minute Miners loe in on Four Corners since Thursday.]
Frank, denial doesn’t change reality. You can blame the media. You can wish it were different. But this will not change anything. The plain, straight-forward story is the Government picked up this tax idea from the Treasury. It is not an invention of the media or an allegation by the Opposition. It is an initiative of the Government. It is a radical, misconceived and ill-considered policy that has come from nowhere. There is nothing to gain by pretending otherwise. Kevin Rudd was good at saying the buck would stop with him. Well now is the time to redeem the promise. He should go. This is a monumental foul-up and he should quit while there is time for the party to regroup.
RE: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/just-16pc-tipped-to-take-up-nbn/story-e6frg6n6-1225876225571?from=public_rss
I find it funny that the Australian is using bases TAS connection rate.
Not to mention that you can predict 15 years…. Curiously thats 10 years being construction mode, 5 years fully operational mode.
Very limited information.
Dinsdale Piranha@70
then you’re not a TRUE believer who will stand up for the party.
Enjoy Workchoices Mark 2.
Then again the next election may be one to lose. The US and Europeane are at risk of a total melt down and solid recession which if happened will not leave Australia alone this time.
And the risk in that increasing unemployment and liquidity problems maybe be the dentonator to our rather massive property bubble…and the banks very high exposure to same..and a liquidity crisis and….well you get the picture. It would be a very unhappy three years if all that happened….and the prospects of it are quite real.
briefly@73
Yes Twiggy Jnr.
MNow Menzies House ioscalling you to reward you for your good work as a Double Agent.
As I said. LOOK at the Trend – Laborv is going well DESPITE Neilson.
Mark my words.
For the Nervous Nellies.
GROW A PAIR.
For St Bob’s dope lovvers.
Enjoy being screwed over like a salor on shore leave by a whore with an STD.
Thomas Paine@66
That’s a classic TP, thanks – I know several frustrated drummers to send that link to.
I think that’s where I say enough is enough. William?
Ah, isn’t it glorious to see the lefty circle jerk squirm and clutch at straws by comparing Abbott with Latham.
Good times.
It seems the barbarians have indeed arrived at the gates. The Government, having painted itself into the corner on so many issues, is going to have extreme difficulty in extricating itself from the fine mess it is now in.
The possibility of a Tony Abbott PMship now seems to be a plausible reality, as well as a cruel joke. Could this reality lead to his exposure and subsequent implosion in the manner of Latham? Sorry! No! This would depend on the existence of an impartial and competent media. Sadly it’s not going to happen.
Generic Person@80
Ahem 1% rise in the Liberal Vote isn’t something to gloat about 🙂
Won on the Primary Vote, but on the 2PP.
It ain’t over – the TV ads by the Govt have just kicked in and will be getting saturation coverage during the World Cup.
Dinsdale Piranha@79
That is the truth for our Green suckers, which you have now succombed to.
GP, I’m shitting myself, no doubt to your satisfaction. Be warned, though: the Labor caucus is not attached to Rudd like your mob was to Howard. If the Libs had rolled Howard, and Costello had dragged the election out to ’08, not only would the Kevin 07 t-shirts have looked silly, Labor would have probably lost. Don’t forget, it was only the Jackie Kelly implosion that sealed the deal for us.
Abbott is also deeply unpopular. Julia is not. Watch out.
[Yes Twiggy Jnr.
MNow Menzies House ioscalling you to reward you for your good work as a Double Agent.
As I said. LOOK at the Trend – Laborv is going well DESPITE Neilson.
Mark my words.
For the Nervous Nellies.
GROW A PAIR.
For St Bob’s dope lovvers.
Enjoy being screwed over like a salor on shore leave by a whore with an STD.]
Don’t worry, Frank, hopefully in a few days or weeks hopefully there will be a new PM and you can become blindly loyal to whoever that might be. In the meantime, keep up with the insults. You and HTT can share a few together.
briefly@84
Don’t like the truth AGAIN.
Rudd will prevail and WIN.
Now go and clean Twiggy’s toilets like a good little servant.
Frank – I say this on my own behalf only, and don’t presume to speak for anyone else: would you mind cooling it a bit please. It does get a bit much. The key thing for me is good fun and intelligent discussion of the issues with a bit of light-hearted banter. Relentless dumb sludgy name calling ad nauseum doesn’t involve either.
I second that motion.
jaundiced view@86
I’m aafraid you’re an apolgist for the Liberal Party like the others.
I will NOT klet the ALP be pulled down by the likes of you and the others.
Either Grow a pair or enjoy Workchoices Mark 2.
THAT is the reality.
Dinsdale Piranha@87
My reply applies to you as well.
Jaundiced, don’t engage any more. You cannot reason with the unreasonable.
Dinsdale Piranha@90
Aka I can’t deal with the truth that you would be responsible for Workchoices Mark 2.
Spoken like a true political weather vane.
I love it when you talk dirty Frank.
Tell us about Freemantle again
xox
marg@92
As for you.
Enjoy Workchoices Mark 2 – thanks to St Bob falling in love with Abbott over that OTHER GBNT – you know the one where Tony jhas outgreened the Greens !
Sucker.
You know Frank is shitting himself when he calls Greens voters Liberal apologists.
What a loaded Newspoll by the Miners.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/06/06/1225876/229028-newspoll-070610.pdf
Heres some tips from an apparant “idiot” Townsvillian that appears to have his finger on the pulse on whats going on out here in voter land.
Boatpeople – Get tough or the boats will keep coming. You can not appease a minority of voters while pieving off the large majority who want action on the issue. Put away the BS feel-good mantra and come back to reality, the more boats you stop, the more lives you save and the happier Australians will be. Only a few tacked on Greenies will be upset.
GBNT on Miners – Now heres a balls up if ever you’ve seen one. A completely ridiculous tax introduced to prop up Labors Great Big Debt Hole with absolutely no negotiation before releasing it in the budget. The Feds want more money from the miners? Fine, negotiate with the miners, find a reasonable level of taxation both sides are happy with, THEN you announce it in the budget. This is where Labor has stuffed up… and stuffed up big time, they did the opposite, introduced… then negotiated.
Labors Great Big Debt – And the reason for the GBNT on miners? To pay off Labors Great Big New Debt. What we need now is REFORM… proper government REFORM. Not more bueracrats… not more spending on BS like the ETS commission, despite the policy being shitcanned… not more spending on pie in the sky policies… REAL REFORM. Shake up the public service, get rid of the no hopers, streamline government. Nope none of that from Rudd.
Bold new policies – What have we got from Rudd after all his promises before the last election? A couple of apologies, a few dead tradies and a whale court case. Pathetic, absolutely pathetic. I would have given Rudd a lot of respect if he had done what he said before the last election and asked for a referrendum for a FULL FEDERAL TAKEOVER of the Health system. Thats bold.. thats new.. thats real reform. Instead we get some ansy-pansy rubbish where the Feds take 30% of the States GST, and then give the states back 30% of their GST. Now the Labor Hackaries say this is real reform… yeah a real shake up of the health system, who wrote this policy a 3rd grader?
Spending money is not reform. This government is without direction, without vision and without real policies.
Frank, you are just mistaken. Why on earth would we “pretend” anything? This is just a blog. It is not the centre of the political universe. We visit to express opinions, not to try to trick or deceive. And why, in particular, would anyone try to deceive you? You should take a step back. This is not the front line of political engagement. It is interesting, but it is absolutely not as important as you seem to think it is.
Generic Person@94
I’m not shitting myself, I’m pointing out the political reality.
I look at the long term trend.
and Tony hasn’t gained ANYTHING.
.
Hiya Truthy. Frank was getting lonely. Now both sides have their resident trolls in action.