GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.
Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.
UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.
That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.
| SUPPORT | OPPOSE | strong | weak/all | weak/all | strong | |
| Nielsen (1400) | National | Jun 3-6 | 41 | 49 | ||
| Galaxy (800) | Queensland | Jun 2-3 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 32 |
| Newspoll (600) | Qld marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| Newspoll (600) | WA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 41 |
| Newspoll (600) | SA marginals | May 31-Jun 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 | 21 |
| Morgan (655) | National | May 26-27 | 44 | 48 | ||
| Westpoll (400) | Brand | May 25-26 | 25 | 56 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 19-23 | 12 | 31 | 22 | 14 |
| Morgan (571) | National | May 12-13 | 41 | 52 | ||
| Essential (2000) | National | May 4-9 | 52 | 34 | ||
| Nielsen (1400) | National | May 6-8 | 44 | 47 | ||
| Morgan (669) | National | May 4-5 | 47 | 45 | ||
UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).
From the SMH:
Tony is NOT getting any traction at all.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-faces-wipeout-20100606-xn7v.html
I predict a state of catatonia among many regulars around these parts on those figures.
I think the trend is confirmed, and the Greens vote holding up at the expense of the Libs confirms the reasons being discussed today.
With the Greens apparently trying to soften their old hard-core SWP image (as an aside, is that possible with their current membership?) to attract the erstwhile Democrat demographic (note alliteration), Labor has a real job on its hands.
It now seems clear that if there’s one thing worse than doing nothing, it’s doing nothing after promising heaps. Wayne Goss must be experiencing deja vu watching his old right-hand man stuff it up again.
[Tony is NOT getting any traction at all.]
Bit like pointing out the ice berg got scratched while you watch the Titanic sink.
Pathetic, absolutely pathetic.
Frank Calabrese,
Maybe not, but I’m not convinced all the people nominating Greens / Independents are Labor voters waiting for a reason to come back.
The interesting thing for me is that the Coalition does better when voters nominate their second preference rather than the pollster basing it on how preferences flowed last time.
William, the old thread is still open.
It’s been a long time since I’ve been on this sight but finally I get to say the narrowing has finally happened 🙂
or a Yosamite Sam said, ” I like it, I like it! 😀
The rise, rise and rise in the Green vote continues unabated.
What’s wrong with the voters?
Haven’t they been listening to the PB Labor Hacks?
Oh dear, perhaps a personalised letter from Peter Garrett might help,
or a gay heroin for kindy kids story will work again?
I can smell Lindsay’s soild nickers.
The more progressive rats have deserted the ship as it drifts helplessly to starboard, and swum to the green iceberg. In the meantime the band plays on up at PB deck despite the 33% primary list.
Gary
Is 33% PV still really 43-45%?
Ahh Mad Marg and John the Liberal in agreement over a poll wher the Liberal Primary vote has risen a measly 1%.
Gees.
John Of Melbourne@6
All I’ll say is Mark Latham also had these numbers – and look what happened to him 🙂
Chickens, Hatched 🙂
Frank Calabrese@9
All very well to focus on the reverse negative googly doosra spin angle, but we lefties have to be realistic sometimes Frank. Is 33% PV for Labor a satisfactory figure?
Is is all down to the media, or has Kevin erred? How is it fixed?
Frank -10,
that he did but standing beside Bob Brown wiped him out, hopefully Abbott doesn’t do the same.
Thought I’d have a quick duck in before bed. Maybe I shouldn’t have.
If this keeps up till the election, I hope the Greens will be happy in their new coalition arrangement with the Libs and Nats!
We’ll see then whether their rhetoric can stand up to scrutiny and whether they can get “any” policy platform past the forces of darkness.
I’m sure the Greens voters will enjoy workchoices mark 2 also! 😉
Hows that GBNT on miners working out for Labor?
I won’t be surprised if there is a backflip on the policy by the end of the week.
jaundiced view@11
Face it – The Coalition primary vote has HARDLY SHIFTED !!
Once there is an election proper, Tony will be exposed as did Latham.
Frank. It’s bad. It doesn’t matter that the libs only got one extra percentage point. LABOR IS ON 33%. I am so mad; I am so utterly furious that we are on the verge of letting Tony Abbott into the lodge.
The Democrats may attract the ‘Democrats demographic’ as voters become aware that the Democrats not only still exist, but are contesting this election. Parliamentary scutiny/ standards and cooperation/ compromise have collapsed without the Democrats in the Senate.
Dinsdale Piranha@16
Give it time. We’ll be back as the election gets closer.
I’ll bet Teh Fart of Teh Nation will pause from its snide posturing about Fairfax journalists supporting ‘Palestinian Terrorists’ against God’s Chosen just long enough to report on this Fairfax poll. With cringeworthy glee.
Couple of state Neilsons as well:
Whoops try Federal figures:
Frank, remember Steven Kaye? Nostrodamus? That’s who you sound like, a la Labor.
Given that you and I have first hand experience of a “she’ll be right, mate” strategy killing off a state government, and handing power to a man who should never have been premier, I thought you would know better.
Was Hawke doing this badly when Keating rolled him?
Wow. When was the Labor PV last this low, anyone?
63-37 to Lib/Nat in WA federally? Is that a record for these waters? Crikey.
Dinsdale Piranha,
Watch the media go totally feral towards Rudd and Labor now that they think their strategy of constant demonising of Labor and letting Abbott & the Opposition off the hook, scott free seems to be bearing fruit.
For the greens, so you sow, so you shall reap. No ETS now and all Labors social benefit policies trashed.
There’s still time to undo the harm done, but time is running out fast now. A good government has been trashed on the alter of political ambition.
Dinsdale Piranha@22
Hope Julia’s got bigger cajones that Costello.
Frank Calabrese@26
Some Frank Calabrese magic from a few hours ago.
[For the greens, so you sow, so you shall reap.]
Jeez, scorps, you flatter the greens if you think a party of that size with their resources caused a crash of this proportions. I hope the fed exec don’t wanna keep digging as furiously as you do.
Labor’s primary vote is shit, Frank. 23% of voters “parked” their vote with One Nation in 1998 in the Queensland election. Not good enough.
[24
jaundiced view
63-37 to Lib/Nat in WA federally? Is that a record for these waters? Crikey.]
Even (the deeply revered) Gough never managed to upset West Australians quite like Kevin Rudd. This is extraordinary, but, sadly, totally predictable. The Federal Parliamentary Labor Party should get rid of Kevin Rudd immediately if they want to have any hope of winning the next election.
Dinsdale Piranha@31
It may be shit now, but I’m still confident.
Abbott will crash and burn like Latham.
I don’t know what to be more enraged at, that Tony Abbott may well end up Prime minister, or that Labor may manage to lose against him of all people.
2011 election on the cards?
briefly@32
And give the Libs satisfaction ?
Pull the other one Shorter Colin.
[Hope Julia’s got bigger cajones than Costello.]
They probably feel like just throwing in the whole thing and handing it over to Clive Palmer, Twiggy Forrest and Rupert Murdoch and be done with it.
They will be the ones pulling the strings for their Abbott puppets. What a front bench, eh, bristling with talent and as long as they can stray alive long enough, should see out three years at least! 😉
Frank
[It may be shit now, but I’m still confident.]
William’s #29 kinda undercuts you though…
Well, a ringing endorsement of Rudd’s ‘low risk’ strategy of squandering his mandate on climate change, and alternately pissing off both his left, and his centrist supporters.
If I were Rudd – I’d mea culpa on climate change, like, tomorrow; cut a deal with the miners for an 11% threshold like oil and gas in return for a proper ETS (not that pissweak shite he offered up last time); and then bang the ‘GFC saviour, its the economy stupid’ drum from here to October.
It might be his only chance. Jaysus, how did we get here…
Pancho,
[I hope the fed exec don’t wanna keep digging as furiously as you do.]
Yeah, their doing a great job, aren’t they!
[63-37 to Lib/Nat in WA federally? Is that a record for these waters? Crikey.]
Don’t worry, Rudd’s got a $38 Million dollar powerpoint to educate the good people of WA of a great big new tax on their state.
If the ALP vote of 33% is added to 80% of the Green vote of 15% (12%) you get 45%. If the ALP, Green and Coalition and votes (33, 15 and 43 respectively)are added up then you get 91% which leaves an other vote of 9%. So this poll is saying that 2 out of 9 other voters would preference the ALP (3 out of 9 (1 out of three) if they preferenced the same way as the last election).
Frank Calabrese@33
Yes, of course he might, but what exactly should Rudd do now, just in case Abbott holds it together? ETS, refugees, Henry review? Surely he must DO something.
My suggestion would be for him to give one Paul Keating a call, tonight.
Frank, believe me, nothing would make the Libs happier than keeping Rudd swinging in the breeze up until polling day.
Dewgong@34
Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition
Morgan: 52.5-47.5
Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor
Note the Trend of the others 🙂
Neilson is taken Monthly.
The others are heading good for Labor.
This looks like an Rogue compared to the last 4 national polls.
Must admit I can see little reason for such a loss in Labor’s polling. But it is appears to be quite real. It cant be because of the Liberals since they are probably one of the worse oppositions I can recall. Abbott is their shining light and he is two faced idiot most of the time.
So I guess it is Rudd Labor that is not on the nose, not the Liberals suddenly being popular.
As I have said, and just like Abbott was, Gillard would be a total game changer and a force Abbott simply couldn’t deal with.
I don’t expect the same reticence and dithering that the Liberals endured over Howard to afflict Labor. If it becomes quite apparent that the election is at risk with Rudd as leader then he will be knifed quickly and efficiently…..and Gillard would be installed as the candidate most likely to win.
IMHO Gillard would win easily.
But they would be silly to act too soon of course. 52/48 would be quite acceptable.
[I hope the fed exec don’t wanna keep digging as furiously as you do.
Yeah, their doing a great job, aren’t they!]
Touche. Point being stop being fwits about the party’s left (now in Green-land) and telling them they don’t know what they are doing or why they are upset. This large block obviously identifies with the Greens, and continually hacking into the Greens and/or pretending that flank doesn’t exist ain’t working. Time for more constructive work on that side. Labor, not the Greens, have the power to initiate that sort of detente, even if it is only superficial.
pancho@37
Ahem, I was quoting Alex Hawkle, who must have got an early edition of the poll being a Liberal Powerbroker.
[Even (the deeply revered) Gough never managed to upset West Australians quite like Kevin Rudd. This is extraordinary, but, sadly, totally predictable. The Federal Parliamentary Labor Party should get rid of Kevin Rudd immediately if they want to have any hope of winning the next election.]
I disagree. We’ll have the “give Gough a Go” mentality and Rudd will win the next election with a loss of a handful of seats in QLD and WA.
The knives might be out then, and it’ll be their second term they’ll get to either redeem themselves or go to the slaughterhouse.
@41, a primary vote of 33% is disastrous no matter what way you look at it. This may be a slight exaggeration from margin of error, but I wouldn’t want to take any chances on that.
Labor needs to change tack and fast, it’s current strategy, whatever the hell it is, is not working