Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland

Bit slow on the uptake with this one, but it turns out that Queensland Galaxy poll also inquired about state voting intention, and it found the Liberal National Party with a two-party lead of 55-45. The result is even grimmer for Labor on the primary vote, given that optional preferential voting will deprive it of many Greens preferences: Labor is on 32 per cent against 44 per cent for the LNP and 16 per cent for the Greens. This in fact marks an improvement for Labor on the previous such poll in February, when Labor were on 31 per cent to 48 per cent for the LNP and 13 per cent for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 59-41. Equally importantly, Anna Bligh has recorded terminal personal ratings of 25 per cent approval (down three) and 69 per cent disapproval (up five). It will come as little comfort to the government that John-Paul Langbroek is also up six points on disapproval to 44 per cent, as he leads Bligh as preferred premier 43 per cent (up one) to 36 per cent (down one). A remarkable 85 per cent expressed opposition to the government’s asset sales, against 12 per cent support.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

15 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Unsurprising. Bligh spins more than Beattie and does so in a condescending tone. People seem to take more issue with the fact that she announced the sell off shortly after the state election and then became combative when the electorate emphatically rejected her proposals. It’s not a matter of working harder, it’s a matter of working properly. People like myself who are ardently against the state’s LNP policies still will go for any alternative to this pitiful, useless government.

  2. I’m pretty sure optional preferential voting only applies for state elections. Federal elections are fully preferential, and if you don’t fill in your ballot it’s invalid.

  3. Anna’s biggest problem is her over-reliance on the advice of Ken Smith, who is a first rate person but a third rate administrator.

    I do say again, what are Queensland voters who aren’t engaged intimately with the Government supposed to think about Anna Bligh when NONE of her good works get an airing in the Murdoch press and EVERYTHING printed about her and broadcast on the local ABC is remorselessly partisan and downright inaccurate.

    We actually have an excellent government in Queensland. What we do not have is a sufficiently competent bureaucracy nor an honest and ethical fourth estate.

  4. Yes, I agree with Trubbell’t’mill’s last two points, one of the big issues that still hasn’t been adaquately explored by any QLD journo is , why the sale of assets?? so, 85% of respondents don’t want it, but after many decades of dollars from resources going into Treasury and after spending $15 Billion dollars on an infrstructure spend (rolling stock. Port facilities, etc) over the past 3 years, the fact Fraser et al are willing to sell it off for $10 Billion can’t disguise the fact that somewhere along the line someone sent QLD almost broke. If we could get a journo to look into that I’d be very happy

  5. @Psephos, her behaviour wasn’t bad at all on the RSPT. I read her statements, and all she said was that the government and the miners should talk instead of having a fight, which is probably better.

  6. Psephos

    Her behavious is similar to Ranns

    The problem belongs with Rudd, he completely mismanaged the tax, if he had consulted the miners or financing companies, he would have known beforehand that the “Super Profit” rate of 6% is way too low and the financier will not place any value on refund when the project falls over, and would not lend at 6% against that (more like 12-16%)

    Rudd had a hole in the budget and wanted $12 billions to fill it, he got Ken Henry to find what he through was the most politically harmless way to fill it;
    ie attack the big bad foreigners (Xenophobe)
    ie tell people it is about hospital, it is about super etc

    This tax was never about the mining industry, that was the problem

  7. dovif,

    It would help if you simply didn’t make stuff up.

    The budget will move into surplus in the 2012/13 period without the mining tax. A cursory google search would have told you that.

    The mining tax is to pay for a 2% cut in company tax, infrastructure spending and other schemes. Now if you have an issue how the money raised from the tax will be spent, please feel free to elaborate. Please don’t spout ignorant BS.

  8. Bobalot the Great

    LOL, stop listening to spin

    GST was a revenue neutral tax, we gave tax cut, we did infrastructure spending and other scheme,etc

    Income tax is a revenue neutral tax, we did infrastructure spending and other scheme

    I can allocate a lot of spending to $12 billion of income, I could say the school building project was part of the infrastructure spending and see it is revenue neutral

    Fact is
    a. Tax is a revenue item
    b. Rudd and Swann has a budget deficit
    c. a new tax will reduce that deficit
    D. Rudd and Swann = spin

  9. A-C are correct.

    All politicians spin. It’s part of the job to put the most positive spin on anything. It seems that the wider right only picked up on this since Rudd became PM – as if Abbott and the Howard Government don’t spin. To imply that this Government is any different to every other Government in history when it comes to spinning is ridiculous.

  10. Yep we keep hearing of all the new spending Rudd will be doing with his Great Big New Tax.

    But hang on… the Rudd Government has been posting budget deficits since day dot. So a whole heap of new spending means they want to either put us in more deficit, or they are using it as an excuse to bring in a GBNT to pay down Labor debt.

    Now lets take the time machine back… back… back in time…. *Cue flashback music*

    January 20, 2008
    [KEVIN Rudd will fight inflation with a “hardline” budget surplus target of up to $18 billion achieved through savage spending cuts.

    Outlining in Perth today a five-point plan to fight inflation, the Prime Minister will set a new target for the budget surplus of 1.5 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product.

    The move follows the Howard overnment’s pledge made during the election campaign to maintain a budget surplus of 1 per cent of GDP.

    But with final budget surpluses in the past three fiscal years of at least 1.5 per cent of GDP, the Rudd Government is likely to achieve its target.

    In a speech in Perth today, Mr Rudd will also flag new policies to encourage “real incentives” to promote private savings. He did not elaborate on the measures yesterday during a “community cabinet” session in which he and his ministers took questions from the public, but the reforms could include policies to encourage superannuation and savings plans to promote home ownership.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    These measures would have the potential to take pressure of home interest rates by slowing the surging pace of consumer and business spending that has the Reserve Bank worried.

    Blaming the Howard Government for failing to tackle inflation, Mr Rudd will today also warn of new spending cuts to be unveiled in the May budget beyond the $10 billion savings plan outlined in last year’s election campaign.]

    Biggest load of crap… EVER.

    Garrett was right… “we’ll just change it all when we get in”. They changed it all alright.

  11. dovif,

    So you have absolutely no evidence for your claim that the mining tax was to clear the deficit? I thought so.

    Your attempt to cover this fact by waffling is pitiful. You and Rudd are much alike.

    The budget is moving into surplus because tax receipts are rising. By 2012/13 the budget will move into surplus. Go to the treasury website and look at the numbers.

    And to forestall any imbeciles who will be claiming the treasury numbers are fudged, the treasury is independent in its advice to the government. The government sets the spending agenda and the treasury does the calculations, much like they did in the Howard Era.

  12. Bobalot

    I will make it simple for you

    the estimated 12/13 surplus, includes about $12bil of mining tax which produce a surplus of about 1bill.

    if you can find about 11 bil of expenses that would not go ahead, then you are correct

    Mining tax is a revenue item, I typed that very slowly, so you might be able to comprehend it

  13. Interestingly, there was an article in a late-week TCM that said internal polling by the LNP has revealed that the LNP ‘brand’ had ‘reached poisonous levels’ amongst those polled.

    The discrepency between that internal polling and the Galaxy poll doesn’t surprise me: I wouldn’t trust a Galaxy poll to tell me if the sun was up or not.

    All Langbrook has to do to win the next election is not talk, but he just can’t help himself (and the actions of those behind him – however temporary their support may be – don’t help).

    Good Government requires good opposition, so it’s no surprise that there are school tuckshops better-run than the QLD Government.

  14. dovif,

    I will put it simply for you. You have not even bothered to look the figures from the treasury. The budget will swing into surplus with an increase in tax receipts. Every financial analyst in the newspapers pointed this out but you have chosen to ignore it in favour of conspiracy theories. Revenue generators such as the GST fell sharply during the GFC but are now growing again.

    Below is the link that details the growth in government revenue:

    The following page details the mining tax:

    The money generated by the Mining Tax is almost entirely eaten up by new commitments.

    If the mining tax is not implemented, the other reforms will simply not be implemented and the effect on the deficit is neutral.

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