The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52.5-47.5 after last week’s four point bounce up to 54.5-45.5. This seems a bit odd given that Labor’s primary vote is only down 0.5 per cent to 42 per cent while the Coalition is steady on 41 per cent. The effect comes from the non-major party vote figures, which are showing the same volatility as Newspoll’s without in any way replicating the surge to the Greens recorded on the weekend. Indeed, this poll – conducted at the same time – has the Greens down from 11 per cent to 8.5 per cent, with “others” doubling from 3.5 per cent to 7 per cent.
Besides which:
• The Liberals have announced candidates for two normally marginal seats in South Australia: Gawler councillor David Strauss will run against Nick Champion in Wakefield, and businesswoman Liz Davies will run against Tony Zappia in Makin. Both seats were gained by Labor at the 2007 election, with relative swings of 7.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent producing margins of 6.6 per cent and 7.7 per cent.
• The Liberals have announced candidates for the two Australian Capital Territory seats. Canberra will be contested by Giulia Jones, a former party staffer who was narrowly unsuccessfully in her run for Molonglo at the 2008 Australian Capital Territory, and sought Tasmanian Senate preselection for the 2007 federal election. Jones had been the only nominee at the time the party suspended the preselection process in late 2009 in the hopes of finding a higher profile, but it would appear none was forthcoming. In Fraser the Liberals have nominated James Milligan, a small business owner from Gungahlin.
• Amid claims from LNP member Michael Johnson that party president Bruce McIver threatened to refer him to police if he did not resign as member, the party is preparing to preselect a successor in his seat of Ryan next week. Brisbane councillor Jane Prentice is rated the front-runner, but other possible starters are said to include Seb Monsour, manager with catering and cleaning firm Spotless and brother-in-law or Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman, and Senator Russell Trood, who holds an unwinnable position on the party’s Senate ticket.
• The Daily Advertiser reports the paper’s former editor, Michael McCormack, has won preselection to succeed retiring Kay Hull as Nationals candidate for Riverina. Other nominees were Wesley Fang, a Child Flight helicopter pilot from Wagga Wagga, John Minogue, a farmer from Barmedman, Bill Maslin, a Gundagai councillor, and Mark Hoskinson, a farmer from Kikoira. The Liberal candidate is thought likely to be Charles Morton, described by a Poll Bludger commenter as “lawyer turned businessman/film financier/mate of Mel Gibson”.
• The Liberal candidate for the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, Peter Angelico, has withdrawn after his Dandenong metal fabrication business was fined $25,000 over a workplace accident that resulted in a 16-year-old losing part of three fingers.
• The Nationals have nominated Tamworth Chamber of Commerce president Tim Coates to run against independent Tony Windsor in New England.
• Farmborough Heights business consultant Michelle Blicavs has been unanimously endorsed by local members as Liberal candidate for the NSW state seat of Wollongong.
• UMR Research has published results on attitudes towards banning wearing of the burkha, producing intuitively correct findings of generally high support that wanes among the younger and university educated.
[I had a quick look at the BP Texas refinery explosion, back in 2005 (15 workers died, 170 injured). Looks to be a bit of an unfortunate culture of cost cutting…]
Laocoon
I rest my case.
Failing to appreciate the difference between price and cost is a pox upon us.
I’m doing it again…
Better go, I think. Must be my mood.
Rua went
Rua just stick to try to teaching a pig to sing, rather than converse with truthy – you will come out well in front.
[It won’t totally dominate as it did last time, but it will still be pretty potent in the low-income marginals.]
Rudd should weave together the Fair Work Act and the RSPT.
He should say that the Government thinks that all Australians should benefit from the country’s economic development. This means having a fair I.R. system where workers have decent wages and conditions, and it should apply to all Australians benefiting from the mining industry, not just for the benefit of mining company profits.
The mining industry was one of the strongest backers of WorkChoices because they knew it could reduce pay and conditions for their workers, and now they are using the same tricks with the Resource Rent Tax, because they want to defend their profits ahead of the national interest.
[Anything can be done and quickly with the right amount of money and man power.]
Yep, insulating a million houses, building thousands of school buildings, delivering 300,000 computers and keeping us from recession.
Truthy
They need a sort of capture hood which then feeds into the pipe. When they tried it the gas froze (must have created a methane clathrate like all the methane clathrates sitting on the bed of the Arctic Ocean, just waiting for the water to warm up) and, anyway, the gas froze to fill up the capture hood thing so the oil could not flow and the big pipe idea did not work.
The capture hood was like a sort of big metal burqa.
I think I’ll start a campaign against priests, bishops, cardinals and the pope wearing dresses. I don’t like it one little bit and I vote.
[I think I’ll start a campaign against priests, bishops, cardinals and the pope wearing dresses. I don’t like it one little bit and I vote.]
You’ve got my vote, boerwar. It’s all kiddies’ games.
[It won’t totally dominate as it did last time, but it will still be pretty potent in the low-income marginals. ]
I think it cost the Libs plenty of votes in the mortgage belt marginals, as did the rising interest rates. Labor won’t have that big advantage from those two issues being mentioned continually in the next election. Those were killer issues; they were simple, scary and hit the hip pocket.
Yup fully aware of that. What I am also aware of is that what is popular does not automatically equate what is the right thing to do. And it’s the ones who have the smallest voices who should be stood up for the most. I never dismiss any poll, or get delusional that it’s wrong or whatever. I just will never EVER just go with the majority, if it means scapegoating the minority.
As for silencing dissenting opinion, go to uni and have an apolitical social group with slightly liberal tendencies cancelled because Young Liberals keep disrupting it and threatening members.
We are a constitutional, representative, responsible government. Democracy is what the Athenians had – it was quite tyrannical at times. I know I don’t get my way all the time. I am aware I am in the minority. Did I express any surprise from that poll? No. I am just expressing my opposition to this line of thinking. I am not populist, because the right decisions are never the easy ones. Picking on those that are easy to pick on is in no way virtuous either!
“Democracy must be something more than two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner.”
[Labor won’t have that big advantage from those two issues being mentioned continually in the next election.]
No, but they will get points for getting rid of WorkChoices and replacing it with the Fair Work Act, it was a big promise that they kept.
Abbott’s problem is he isn’t credible on health, education, I.R. and the economy.
BK
Yep – I reckon it looks real bad for BP; goodly risk of severe business penalties in the US. Given previous CEO got the axe after this oil refinery explosion (and other more lurid events), the current CEO falling on his sword may not be enough by any means
Here is some commentary on “special” and “common” causes with which you may be not unfamiliar 😉
[BP management had not distinguished between “occupational safety” (i.e. slips-trips-and-falls, driving safety, etc.) vs “process safety” (i.e. design for safety, hazard analysis, material verification, equipment maintenance, process upset reporting, etc.). The metrics, incentives, and management systems at BP focused on measuring and managing occupational safety while ignoring process safety. BP confused improving trends in occupational safety statistics for a general improvement in all types of safety.]
[Here is some commentary on “special” and “common” causes with which you may be not unfamiliar ]
Strange you might say that, Laocoon.
Thanks for that but I cannot find notification from Xstrata to either the Swiss SX or London.
Agreed I cannot find an announcement to the London Stock Exchange. Perhaps they have different reporting requirements vs the ASX continuous disclosure rules. It was on the Xstrate website as news. I do note the announcement was “suspended” the projects which may have assisted them in not making an announcement to the exchange ie as the projects had not been shelved completely and impacted price – but only guessing on that front.
BP’s main economic activity for the next 20 years is going to be feeding a whole generation of US lawyers. It won’t do the world any good at all, but there it is.
[And it’s the ones who have the smallest voices who should be stood up for the most. I never dismiss any poll, or get delusional that it’s wrong or whatever. I just will never EVER just go with the majority, if it means scapegoating the minority.]
Did you ever think.. maybe.. just maybe… banning the Burqa would be good for these repressed, hidden, isolated and threatened women of Islam?
Besides it’s not our job to conform to their culture, it’s their job to conform to ours when they get off the plane. I don’t go to Saudia Arabia wearing a G-banger and drinking a brew.
I hadn’t heard that the Libs are running dead in Dobell (margin 3.9%). What’s your evidence for this?
HSO
I hadn’t seen those. Why on Earth do the Libs keep bringing up WorkChoice type legislation? Someone needs to take the Kool-Aid away from them. They are addicted to it.
If you want to drink a brew, wear a G-banger (whatever that is) and don a burqa, feel free. It’s still a free country.
[Did you ever think.. maybe.. just maybe… banning the Burqa would be good for these repressed, hidden, isolated and threatened women of Islam?]
Did you ever think… maybe.. just maybe.. that it could simply result in these women being forced to stay home?
[Besides it’s not our job to conform to their culture, it’s their job to conform to ours when they get off the plane]
Define our culture.
[If you want to drink a brew, wear a G-banger (whatever that is) and don a burqa, feel free. It’s still a free country.]
But thats the thing… I can’t do that in Saudia Arabia… something about “culture” or some such thing.
Apparantly having ideas of acceptable behaviour and culture in Australia is an outrageous idea for the left. One rule for them, one for us.
Pseph
landeryou among others has the story
Worstchoices is well remebered around here
🙁
Boer
truthy means his g string
🙁
[The WorkChoices effect is going to have to be a lot less than at the last election.]
It may have the same effect if not more.
Workchoices played a major part in 2007, the libs acknowledged it was wrong in the new parliament but now Abbott, Robb, Hokcey et al want to bring it back.
They are on the record as saying they will wind back unfair dismissal, bring in individual contracts, loosen/ lessen the number of conditions and bar unions from enterprise agreements.
That is Workchoices, pure and simple.
It was voted out and the low down festering scumbags want to bring it back.
Didn’t those thick arrogant, ignorant piles of sleeze get the message last time.
And now they are saying to us, after we voted it out, stuff you we are going to bring it back.
There may well be a reaction to such toffy headed high brow snobish arrogance.
In the election you will have Abbott campaigning to save the mega profits of foreign owned companies with atrocious records on employment practices and his resurrection of Workchoices.
truthy
On the bill for the leak, Obama has just sent BP a $58B bill for the clean-up.
Ouch! That’s a lot of mess.
I’ve seen a petri dish with more culture than Truthy 🙂
Getting drunk, yelling out of car windows, calling as many people as possible “poofs”, forcing people to kiss the flag on Australia day, getting angry with someone for not putting flags all over their car. You know, the stuff that archeologists are going to discover about us in the distant future…
There is a large swag of undecideds and don’t knows out there. When they focus in on the election they will most likely grasp a few fundamentals that are in their interest:
(1) picking up a bit more super.
(2) not getting screwed by workchoices.
(3) getting better access to health.
The ‘luxury’ issues are going to be just that. These include burqa-wearing harpy terrorists robbing banks, unhappy mining billionaires, and a few hundred boats more or less.
Dio
I think it is millions…
[The Obama administration has sent a $69 million bill to BP for the U.S. government’s efforts to help deal with the energy company’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
The current $69 million bill accounts for 75% of what BP owes to date, and the company has until July 1 to pay the full amount, an administration official said Thursday.]
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/03/news/companies/bp_obama_administration_bill/index.htm?hpt=T1
The difference between Saudi Arabia and Australia is that we don’t have compulsory state-enforced cultural norms. That’s why we’re better. That’s why people want to come and live here. Don’t you understand that? I guess not. I’ve made my low opinion of Islam clear here many times, and I wish Muslim women didn’t want to wear bags over their heads, but if they freely choose to do so, then I will absolutely defend their right to do so against cultural fascists like Senator Bernardi and you.
TSOP
[…forcing people to kiss the flag on Australia day, getting angry with someone for not putting flags all over their car]
Yes, how many mores days to the misfortune of the soccer world cup…
Truthy
I might be revolted by your g-banger but am happy to share our freedom-loving country with g-banger enthusiasts, burqa enthusiasts and earnest supporters of croquet.
We are that sort of country.
Workchoices is dead.
The Libs know if they try to introduce it again they will be dealt a death blow like they were in 2007. They aren’t that stupid.. and if they are, once again they will get a hiding.
So in my view Workchoices is dead dead dead.
Did you ever think… just for a moment… maybe they choose to wear it? And as another poster astutely points out, if they can’t wear the burqa, they’ll have to stay at home. Besides, don’t pretend you’re for helping them, you and your populist bogan ilk only hate it because it is different.
Apparently targeting the defenceless is a great idea for the right. Do you lot pick on children and hurt small animals too? By the way, standing up for people’s rights is not a left/right dichotomy – enough with your hackery!
Poor Truthy. It’s not easy being white in Australia.
Truthy, truthy
… the phrase ‘Work Choices’ is dead…
But the hard Dry idealogues who countrol the Liberals are alive and well. Work Choices was their ultimate wet dream and then their ultimate nightmare.
Get ready for election nightmare flashbacks.
[So in my view Workchoices is dead dead dead.]
Wrong. Only the “term” WorkChoices is dead.
Laocoon
You’re right. I was looking at the headlines which said a $69M bill and my brain clicked on that as $69 bill (as in billion). Evidently our brains scan-read and fill in the gaps.
Dio
When it’s all washed up (no pun intended) it might well be close to 69 billion
Truthy
The name Workchoices is dead dead dead
Psephos 380
My point exactly. There is a world of difference between defending one’s actions, and defending their right to do them.
Also, those women who may be oppressed by their husbands, have the freedom to leave their husbands, as well as have the freedom not to wear a burqa.
Dio
Its funny, but when I glanced at it, I too, read it for a moment, the same way as you; however, I had heard it earlier as millions, so I did a double take…
Dio and Laocoon
I take it your distant ancestors were more adept at distinguishing Cave Bears from Aurochs.
[They aren’t that stupid.. and if they are, once again they will get a hiding.]
I greatly fear Truthy will finish up voting Labor again, because the Libs really are that stupid – or perhaps true to their principles might be a better way to put it. They will have to have an IR policy, and however they try to spin it, it will be WorkChoices with lipstick on. Can we pass an act to prevent Truthy voting Labor?
Truthy old son
every time i talk to anyone at the pub etc I slip in that worstchoices is coming back if the fibs get in
Worstchoices aint dead its just resting gvnor,its pyning for the fjords,its having 40 winks
😉
Remember the line from Labor and the left about Howard putting poor boatpeople behind the razor wire? Anyone remember that rot?
Well take a looksies at this graph on the second page, gee that evil Howard and his evil Pacific Solution sure stopped the boats and as a result stopped people from going behind the razor wire.
Under Rudd it’s back to business as usual. Labor this is your shame:
http://www.immi.gov.au/managing-australias-borders/detention/_pdf/immigration-detention-statistics-20100514.pdf
I thought he needed to wait another 6 years before he is old enough to vote…
BW
According to evolutionary psychology, the evolutionary reason we scan things is so that we can pick what is an auroch from a cave bear more quickly than those who don’t scan. There is a big survival advantage from having developed heuristics like that. And we’re left with the consequences.
Burqas, boat people and Work Choices…
Which one is really going to bite in the hip pocket of individuals?
Probably not the best analogy, as that parrot was actually dead.
Dio
So, is $69 million an Auroch and $69 billion a Cave Bear?