Newspoll: 52-48

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 and back to where it was a fortnight before, although both parties are up a point on the primary vote – Labor to 40 per cent and the Coalition to 41 per cent. Dennis Shanahan reports this is because “a slump in support for the Greens detracted from Labor’s second preferences”. More later.

UPDATE: Full results here, including nifty Flash display of results. Greens down three to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott is up three points on preferred prime minister to 30 per cent – the first time in the Rudd era it’s had a three in front of it, as noted in comments – while Rudd is steady on 55 per cent. Abbott’s also up four points on approval to 48 per cent, though disapproval is also up one to 38 per cent. Rudd has recovered a point from last fortnight’s approval low of 50 per cent, with disapproval steady on 40 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before. A question gauging Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott’s attributes records little change since December, while other questions find hostility towards population growth and support for means testing the private health insurance rebate.

Have I got news for you. From New South Wales:

Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports Labor’s national executive is expected to abandon plans to impose its preferred candidate to succeed Bob Debus in Macquarie, instead allowing the matter to be decided by a rank-and-file ballot. This is a win for the Anthony Albanese Left over the Mark Arbib Right, as it is believed the former’s preferred candidate, Susan Templeman, has the numbers in the local branches. A national executive imposition would have installed Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who in the past has been identified with the “soft Left” but is evidently backed in the current instance by the Right. Searle was previously thwarted in his bid to succeed Debus as state member for Blue Mountains when Debus drafted Phil Koperberg. Benson paints Templeman and Robertson nominee Deb O’Neill as part of a move to follow the Howard-era Liberal strategy of having marginal seats contested by “soccer mums” rather than professional politicians.

• Labor Right faction convenor Matt Thistlethwaite will quit his position as New South Wales party secretary after the federal election and seek preselection for the Senate. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Thistlethwaite’s current position has become untenable after he lost the confidence of Luke Foley, deputy secretary and member of the Left, plus many on the Right when he “moved against Mr Rees last December but then backed NSW Environment Minister Frank Sartor for the premiership rather than the eventual winner, Kristina Keneally”. He will be succeeded in his current position by 27-year-old Sam Dastyari, a protéegé of Employment Participation Minister and Right faction heavyweight Mark Arbib. The evident certainty that Thistlethwaite will secure second postion on the Senate ticket behind John Faulkner means Graeme Wedderburn will not get the Senate seat he was promised when lured from the private sector to serve as chief-of-staff to Nathan Rees. In either event, the seat was to come at the expense of one of two incumbents: Steve Hutchins or Michael Forshaw.

• Labor sources tell Imre Salusinszky of The Australian that Robertson MP Belinda Neal has suffered a blow in her bid to survive Saturday’s preselection challenge from academic Deborah O’Neill, as 2005 attendance and membership records from the Woy Woy branch cannot be located. The branch is considered loyal to Neal, and the records are necessary to establish that members have attended meetings for at least four years, as required of preselectors by party rules. The sources say this could cost her up to 40 votes in a ballot of about 150 preselectors.

Belinda Scott of the Central Coast Advocate reports Labor’s unsuccessful candidate for Cowper in 1998 and 2007, training consultant Paul Sefky, has expressed interest in running again. Sefky appears to harbour a grudge against the paper for its reporting of the manner in which he replaced local area health service worker John Fitzroy as candidate two months out from the 2007 election.

Ben Smee of the Newcastle Herald reports Health Services Union organiser and former ambulance officer Jim Arneman has won Labor preselection for Paterson unopposed. Arneman was also the candidate in 2007, when he fell 1.5 per cent short of toppling Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin. The redistribution cut the margin to 0.4 per cent.

• State upper house member Robyn Parker has been confirmed as Liberal candidate for the lower house seat of Maitland. Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports rival candidates Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd, of Maitland City Council, and Brad Luke, of Newcastle City Council, withdrew ahead of the preselection meeting last Saturday. Maitland mayor Peter Blackmore says he will decide soon whether to run again as an independent, after falling 2.0 per cent short of toppling the now retiring Labor member Frank Terenzini.

• Reporting in the aftermath of last week’s preselection win by upper house member David Clarke against challenger David Elliott, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald said Elliott’s supporters were aggrieved at moderate elements, in particular Fahey government minister Michael Photios, for encouraging him to stay in the race so as to give the faction leverage in other preselection battles. Such leverage was used to secure preselection for Greg Pearce in the upper house and Robyn Parker in Maitland, in exchange for moderate support for Clarke at the expense of Elliott.

From Queensland:

• Nathan Paull of the Townsville Bulletin reports the Labor preselection for Herbert will be determined in the normal fashion, by a ballot divided between rank-and-file members and a central electoral committee, apparently following the intervention of Right faction powerbroker Bill Ludwig. This comes as a blow to former mayor Tony Mooney, who has the backing of the Prime Minister and was looking set to take the position on the intervention of the national executive. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Townsville councillor Jenny Hill is “believed to have more backers” in the local party than Mooney. John Anderson of the Townsville Bulletin reports that the Left has been directed (by whom he does not say) to fall in behind Mooney, despite the faction’s long-standing antagonism towards him. The candidate from 2007, local McDonald’s franchisor George Colbran, is yet to decide whether to nominate.

• The Whitsunday Times reports former Whitsunday Shire councillor Louise Mahony has expressed an interest in Labor preselection for Dawson, which James Bidgood is vacating after one term as member for health reasons. Whitsunday Regional Mayor Mike Brunker has ruled himself out. The Liberal National Party endorsed Mackay regional councillor George Christensen in November.

• An “LNP insider” tells Russel Guse of the Central Telegraph that Ken O’Dowd, owner of Busteed Building Supplies in Gladstone, is expected to be a candidate for preselection in Flynn, following the withdrawal last month of Colin Bourke for “personal reasons”.

• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Labor preselection in Ryan loom as a contest between Steven Miles and Martin Hanson of the Right, the latter being favoured by Rudd but the former apparently having the edge in the branches.

From the Australian Capital Territory:

• James Massola of the Canberra Times rpeorts Jenny Hargreaves, a public servant with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and wife of former ACT minister John Hargreaves, is considered likely to win the Centre Coalition faction’s endorsement for Labor preselection in Canberra. His rivals are Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, and Gai Brodtmann, who runs communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and is married to ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Massola says Hargreaves is a friend of the present incumbent, Annette Ellis, and is believed to be close to securing her endorsement. CFMEU industrial officer Louise Crossman has won the endorsement from the Left, and David Garner and Brendan Long are the main competitors for the endorsement of the Right, but it is the Centre Coalition which is believed likely to be decisive. Massola reports Hargreaves’ nomination points to a breakdown in relations between John Hargreaves and Andrew Barr, who are both figures in the Centre Coalition.

• In the ACT’s other seat of Fraser, to be vacated by Bob McMullan, Nick Martin is said to be the favourite after winning endorsement from the Left; George Williams has the backing of Labor Unity (not to mention Malcolm Fraser); and David Peebles and Chris Sant are the front-runners for the Centre Coalition. The preselection for both seats is likely to be determined in late April.

From Victoria:

• After a traumatic final term in parliament, ALP Victorian upper house member for Northern Metropolitan Theo Theophanous has made a surprise decision to quit parliament nine months before the election. His vacancy will be filled by Nathan Murphy, plumbers’ union official and ally of Bill Shorten, who had already been preselected for the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,092 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. No 143

    Oh please centaur. A university degree is an educational achievement. The subsequent chartered accountant’s exams are very hard with a 60% failure rate, last I heard. It’s not that easy.

  2. GP: The Liberals will win the 2011 NSW Election, but the danger for them is that they won’t win as big a victory as they should, because O’Farrell is such a colossal dud of a leader, and Keneally could save 2 or 3 marginal seats for the ALP.

  3. Frank
    Newspoll haven’t got tonight’s one up on their site yet so i think miranda may have jumped the gun herself by reading the old linked to poll.

  4. [No 133]
    Nothing in that article says he is a NUCLEAR physicist. He has a Ph.D. in physics, but that doesn’t automatically make someone a nuclear physicist.

  5. [Why the hell is it punitive for us to move to a system where consumers PAY for the carbon pollution put into the air to produce electricity?]

    Because it is goddamn punitive. You are punished for turning on the lights, the TV, the fridge, the oven, the microwave, the DVD player, the computer, the vacuum, the washing machine, the dryer, the shower – EVERYTHING.

    And, if you’re on an average wage, you’re not going to be able to afford the $20,000 required to install solar panels to avoid the constant punishment if you use conventional energy.

    As for nuclear power stations, these could be achieved through PPPs and splitting the cost and risk over several years with the private sector.

    There are ways of finding savings and it is stupid to assume that there is no waste to be eliminated from the budget, including the sacking of public servants, cancelling the NBN etc.

  6. Great… so now the Rudd government is going to be teaching us about our black heritage.

    This is Whitlam level stuff… idealogical… far leftwing.. bullshit.

    The punters are watching Mr Rudd.

  7. GP, under an ETS consumers are not “punished for turning on the lights, the TV, the fridge, the oven, the microwave, the DVD player, the computer, the vacuum, the washing machine, the dryer, the shower – EVERYTHING.”

    This is an inherenty silly statement.

    Consumers would be made to pay more of the REAL COSTS of those things which we arent paying now. Once the real costs are built into the economy then people will be more concious of how they use electricity and likely power use and so carbon emmissions will drop.

  8. [Because it is goddamn punitive]
    LOL! So your argument is “It’s punitive because it is punitive”. You’ve fallen back into your “taxes are stealing” level of complexity.
    [And, if you’re on an average wage, you’re not going to be able to afford the $20,000 ]
    LOL! Stop pulling figures out of thin air! If you are on average wage you will receive income tax cuts that make up for the increase in CPI caused by the passed on cost of permits.
    [As for nuclear power stations, these could be achieved through PPPs and splitting the cost and risk over several years with the private sector.]
    Which means cutting expenditure or raising other taxes to fund these projects.
    [There are ways of finding savings and it is stupid to assume that there is no waste to be eliminated from the budget]
    At this time in 2007, Lindsay Tanner released a Labor policy that nominated $3 billion worth of savings for Labor’s first term. The Liberals are yet to nominate ONE CENT of savings.

  9. [Consumers would be made to pay more of the REAL COSTS of those things which we arent paying now. ]
    Exactly. G.P. hasn’t heard of the economic principle of “externalities”.

    For the last 100 years, the cost of pollution has just been constantly passed on to future generations. For the first time we have a government willing to place that cost onto the CURRENT generation so the future generations don’t have as much to pay.

  10. [Consumers would be made to pay more of the REAL COSTS of those things which we arent paying now.]

    That is just a semantic argument. The reality is, for Joe Public, that everything will increase in cost. That means punishment.

  11. [At this time in 2007, Lindsay Tanner released a Labor policy that nominated $3 billion worth of savings for Labor’s first term. The Liberals are yet to nominate ONE CENT of savings.]

    Remind the forum how much Australia’s budget is in Surplus again?

    When Howard left it we were what… $100 Bill in surplus, so give us an update on how Rudd’s going with our money so far.

  12. [For the last 100 years, the cost of pollution has just been constantly passed on to future generations. For the first time we have a government willing to place that cost onto the CURRENT generation so the future generations don’t have as much to pay.]

    Which means punishing current generations for the “benefit” of future generations.

  13. Yes the chartered accountants exam might well be difficult for the callabre of student sitting it. As I said GP it is the soft option. I was sorry I couldn’t do it at high school for the free point score, but unfortunately I had pre requisite subjects.
    (put on posh voice) I’ve been accepted to read Accounting at Oxford……not!

  14. Sorry GP Barny is a dud…and completely out of his depth…he is best suited to reactionary back bencher…we all have our strengths!

  15. Remember Folks…. 49% is all the Coalition needs to win the next election.

    Don’t get cocky, this thing could get nasty for your lot.

  16. [That is just a semantic argument. The reality is, for Joe Public, that everything will increase in cost. That means punishment.]
    It isn’t just a semantic argument, it is actually a very well grounded economic argument. The classical liberal economic position has always been that people freely trading goods and services makes both better off, i.e. an electricity company makes profit selling someone electricity which means the person felt the electricity was more valuable than the money they possessed at the time.

    But this idea is wrong because it wasn’t known that the process of creating the electricity polluted the environment in a way, that in the long term, made both entities, the consumer and the electricity generator worse off.
    [Which means punishing current generations for the “benefit” of future generations.]
    Paying for damage to the environment isn’t “punishment”. And it is for the BENEFIT of future generations, not “benefit”.

    I would’ve thought that a conservative would believe in conservation.

  17. GP,

    I always thought the Libs cherished individualism and taking responsibility for one’s actions.

    If the current generation is polluting the atmosphere and causing increased global warming and climate change, should we not also be reponsible for making good the damage. Leaving it to the future generations is a cop out.

  18. [When Howard left it we were what… $100 Bill in surplus, ]
    Stop pulling figures from your arse, you may hurt yourself.

  19. Unfortunately the world and Australia are in denial over climate change. Unfortunately they are too selfish and need more convincing. The don’t see the risk analysis which needs to be acted upon. I feel sorry for my grand children.

  20. [Stop pulling figures from your arse, you may hurt yourself.]

    Pull a figure from your arse and tell us how much we are in defecit now.

  21. No 169

    I agree that action needs to be taken, but I think the ETS places too much emphasis on punitive measures.

  22. [tell us how much we are in defecit now.]
    Our deficit is extremely low compared to all other developed countries and compared to Australia’s history.

    Anyone who says otherwise is simply a liar.

  23. [I agree that action needs to be taken, but I think the ETS places too much emphasis on punitive measures.]
    The Liberals current (yet temporary) socialist policy puts too much emphasis on government bureaucracies picking winners, which is a form of industry policy that was dismantled in the early 1980s.

  24. [Punitive]

    You’ll see punitive when the planet heats up by 4 degrees and the glaciers melt… and our kids and grandkids ask us how we let it happen.

  25. No 168

    The greatest misconception is that the ETS, as Rudd would have it, is market and hence compliant with classical liberal ideals. That is plainly not the case. It redistributes money from normal people to gamblers at Macquarie Bank in the hope that the sea level will decrease. And that doesn’t even include all the exclusions, distortions and compensation that negate all the normal forces that would operate in a proper market.

  26. [Our deficit is extremely low compared to all other developed countries and compared to Australia’s history.]

    What was the defecit when Howard left government?

    You lefties are in complete denial. How bout Rudd stops spending like a drunken sailor and reign in spending.

  27. Tomorrow’s Headlines in the OO:

    # australian

    AFP passport mission to Israel: AUSTRALIA will send a team of police to Israel to investigate the use of Australia… 1 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Unions clash with ALP on award: FRESH tensions have erupted between the Rudd government and key unions, after unio… 1 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Reserve backs Labor on debt: RESERVE Bank governor Glenn Stevens has backed the government’s claim its net debt wi… 1 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    # The Australian australian

    Vote for Abbott close to Rudd’s: TONY Abbott’s personal appeal to voters has continued to grow as he becomes the b… 1 minutes ago via twitterfeed

  28. No 176

    Wrong again. We already know nuclear, solar and reforestation are winners. There are no winners to be picked. They already exist.

  29. Not to mention some 700 billion in foreign debt, although that is not something the government directly controls (although it is the debt Howard campaigned on in 1996)

  30. So reading th posts today , th agnatologistas faction of th left intelegentsia do not understand Sport is an integral part of Aussie culture , with Don Bradman our greatest sportsman an icon of our Australian cultre He is also rated one of 10 or so greatest sportsman who ever lived world wide

    Wonder how many of thems been to Gabba , SCG or MCG and seen cultural diversityes of crowds from aussies of all origins from sir lankans , indians , asians , pakistans , and th m/e , or ar they influensed by senasationizms of 10 seconds TV grabs of 10 drunky hooligans in a crowd of 60,000 Actualy first cricket team from oz to England was all aboriginees

    Like Kerrs Kerr , Don Bradman is key part our oz history & aussie make up , sport

    And to religons also posted a lot todays A minority of intelctuals from both th ‘left’ and’ right’ athiests seem to ‘preach’ alot When 81% of Aussies per our latest Poll think themselves ‘culturally Christian’ and only 13% totally ar non believers (with 6% dont know) , and 70% direct religon believers That a huge majority making this Australia a Christan based Country (tolerant of other faiths)

    th disconnect of this Site’s majority on both sport as key part of our cultre and of religous belief VS th overwhelm majority of Aussies makes this Site th fringe zone of intelectual disconnect to mainstream Australia Amazing th same peoples here think firm religious beleivers (Obama & Rudd) ar clever & intelligent

    Yet again , there is a minority of athiests on this Site (bob 1234 equivalents , AND suporters of Rudd and Obama) who take EVERY opportunity to snipe or actualy mock religion on this Political site Given there athiest Group represents a total of 13% of th oz population (or 24% at best if bible only based) there mocvking and snipes makes them at best look quite stupid athiest zealots to assert and mock that they ar definite rite and that religious believers ar effectively fools

    Of couse Abbott , th Exclusive Brethern etc also on th other side of coin also show there stupid zealotary pushing views down throats Two wrongs do not make a rite

    To those who dislike sport , I feel sorry , such missing out on full oz culture & fun big time

    To those on th site who ar eithr quietly religious or athiest , I respect your rite to your views and your toleranse

    Amazin thing is us Sports lovers , typical of reel Aussie culture ar not going to change our minds from snipes of th minority who miss out on so much sport intellect we receives Also amazing thing is this is a politcal blog , not a religious one , and th vast oz majority (being religious beleivers) ar not going to change there mind either , and nor ar th athiests going to change there minds neither But there you go

  31. Rudd was correct to demote Peter Garrett because of his ‘Minister performanse’

    Despite fact that Peter Garrett has seen over 1.1 milion homes insulated , reduced co2 as result , creqated 000’s jobs & built econamic flow ons helping GFC impacts And Garett furthers has virtually at each turn as issues arose in this massive program such as metel fasteners , safety , trainig , registers , banning foil , hoods over downlites , commnecing inspection from October as Audit cheks etc etc Peter Garrett addresed them all as arose , and as advised by Dept and/Industry

    It seems unfair based on th above facts to demote Peter Garrett on ‘performanse but it was

    But th issue is not on what Peter Garrett did , and did so well , but on what he ‘did’ not do

    For Abbott and MSN , and a few here it was th inuendo of th 4 deaths being Garretts fault Repeeted again by that toff Pyne on Q and A tonite , not once but twice Then there was fires to add This was always a sleezy gutter beatup but 4 deaths kept Story alite

    For Govt and Rudd , they defended this nonsense , and corect repeated all th aBOVE proper actions Garrett took

    For Joe Public , bombard with 4 deaths and fires blitz , they I tink NEVER believed Peter Garrett was reponsible for th 4 deaths as dispicably alleged , as they never believed Peter Garrett had to stand over th sholder of every trady/installer in each ceiling

    For Joe Public however , more smart than peoples think , sensed something must hav been wrong , somewhere , and ar aware of potential fire risk with Insulaton Yet Kevin Rudds defenses of Garrett nite after nite on TV and papers seemed to Joe Public to be saying there is nothing wrong and no one is responsible for anything , nothng That could not politcaly or performanse wise sustainned

    Well Joe Public were rite , there was something wrongs , and Kevin Rudd learned what it was late in th day Dept did NOT give Garrett vital Minter Report even though most risk areas Dept/Garrett actioned (but a generic referense to fire was vaguely mentioned in it (of couse , Insulation and fire no suprise) And Rudd learned an audit showed a vital tipping point , 8% roofs maybe ‘live’

    These all non new homes , some decades old , problam may well be pre exist and prob was and is , Whilst Garrett is innocent , insulation and belated Audit knowledge of potential live roofs & Minter Report sections was tipping point and happened on ‘his Minister watch’ , a demotion was justified howevers unfair West Minister Minister responsible code can be This IS a diff issue to Abbotts /MSN sleeze 4 deaths alegation

    Rudd needed to take responsibility for th Program and to be trite , and Joe Public expected him to

    Rudd needed ritely to action his Minister & demote , and Joe Public expected him to penalise someone

    Rudd also politcaly has taken oxoxgen from th issue , any ‘fires’ that now occur will be spot , only

    So suggestion Rudd is rattled , or did not stand against MSN or , for Peter Garrett in lite of th above is false

    Pity Q and A does not hav a massive audiense

    Peter Garrett said there were complianse and implement issues But he was also brave to front , and very dignified , and most watchin would be moved He is still in Cabinet ritely and will do afine job in Enviro , an area of his expertise and love for Whereas Chris Pyne repeating th 4 deaths alegation , again , was just sewer disgusting

  32. Hopefully the rot has stopped here. PM Abbott and his merry band of right wing extremists doesn’t sound like a good prospect to me.

  33. Ronspeek

    Minister performanse = a traditional dance performed by Ministers when the heat is on

    audiense – observers of a Minister performanse (see above)

    complianse – the company responsible for producing a Minister performnse (see above)

    creqated ‘000s jobs = the creation of jobs in the crematorium industry

    Repeeted = the republication of a Tweet.

    West Minister = a code of conduct for Ministerial behaviour which is based on the way Ministers in Western Australia are treated. It is now adopted universally, even in the eastern states.

    oxoxgen = the product that enters cattle at the mouth, preliminary to being processed in the lungs and thence expelled at the rear as methane gas, leading to an impact on global warming.

  34. [Fairfax News is also running the “Avoiding a Whacking” meme as coined by the OO & Their ABC.]

    It wasn’t coined by Mr Rudd?

  35. have not read any ones chat this morning.
    But all up from here i think just protesting they dont know what about but
    Up from here

  36. i am surprised abbott is discussing abortion and religious education in schools
    i new he could not help him self.
    soon it will be guy people and the legal position which has been improved with this government..

  37. GP Barnaby Joyce is a Certified Public Accountant. There are no extra exams to become one of these. All you need is a uni degree in commerce or somesuch, and an application form. They are the poor cousins, the also-rans of the accounting world, who do personal tax returns and the books for small business.

    Your lack of general knowledge is quite remarkable. Its good for the rest of us though. It allows us to see how the great mass of ill-informed, lower intelligence people see the world, and are influenced by the Murdoch propaganda machine.

    Keeo it up.


    Mad Dog

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