The Australian reports the latest bi-monthly survey of Victorian state voting intention has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 57-43 at the previous two surveys. This masks a sagging Labor primary vote, which over three surveys has gone from 43 per cent to 41 per cent to 39 per cent, which is level-pegging with the Coalition (who are up four points on the last survey). The Greens are steady on 14 per cent. John Brumby’s approval rating has slumped six points to 45 per cent, while his disapproval is up three to 41 per cent. Ted Baillieu’s figures are 41 per cent and 39 per cent, up one and down two (thus moving him from net negative to positive). Brumby maintains a commanding lead as preferred premier of 51 per cent to 29 per cent.
UPDATE (1/3/10): Here’s a turn-up: a Morgan phone poll on Victorian state voting intention. Unfortunately, it has a sample of only 407 and a margin-of-error of nearly 5 per cent. That’s as well for Labor, as it has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 37.5 per cent for Labor, 44.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. Curiously, the poll was conducted over a 12-day period from February 17-28.
Better than expected for ALP but a lot more work needs to be done. The marginals need a lot more help. More has to be done at showing how out of touch ted is. The man hasn’t a clue, and his blunders need to be capitalised on. We don’t need ancient history such as used at the Altona By election but current stuff. Eg thanking Liberal party members for their help during the bushfires, not having a transport plan that will reduce the clearways like the idiot mayor which he supports that is damaging transport users and traders a like.
For an opposition with a myriad of issues going their way this still doesn’t represent a win. The trend is good for the the Libs but there is still much work for them to do to become a viable alternative.
The ALP response:
[Victorian Premier John Brumby has taken a leaf out of the prime minister’s book, admitting his state government has let voters down on the back of a disappointing poll.
In a rare admission of fault, Mr Brumby said the government had not delivered as well as it should and the public was right to demand more action.]
54-46 is still a good result for Labor. The Government seems to have shed some protest vote which can be attributed to problems in public transport ticketing and other issues du jour. But, the good news is that it is parked with the Greens. As we have seen in recent bi-elections, when people want to send a real message they bipass the Greens and go directly to the Libs.
Despite the apparent joy of the Greens, recent results show that the Greens won’t poll any more than 8-10% when the whips are really cracking.
where is the credibility in this comment,
GG said”Despite the apparent joy of the Greens, recent results show that the Greens won’t poll any more than 8-10% when the whips are really cracking.”
At the last election the Greens polled 10.08% in the Lower House, and 10.58% in the Upper House.
Dear me!
1
Clearways are of no real help to public transport users (for example only 7 second in Sydney Rd) what the trams need is priority at traffic lights. Turning the streets infront of shops into traffic sewers with traffic right next to the foot path does not help the traders.
4
The Greens did not get as much of an increase as would have been nice in the Altona by-election but this is not such a good area for the Greens indicating the swing that has been shown in the polls is in areas that were already good for the Greens. The inner city for example.
Tom,
My point is that results in real elections tend to be less than what Greens predict based on polls.
Tram light prioratisation is the next step in the plan Tom. There is ample parking off the main street that is not occupied and i challenge your 7 seconds. I make the difference 10 minutes plus per vehicle. If you would like i’ll race you one day to the city from say ashburton i’ll leave at 9.15 and you can leave at 10.30. bet I beat you by at least 10 mins
9
There is no tram from Ashburton to the city.
True tom it starts 2km away in Glen iris along the controversial High Street. Anytime you’re ready.
Here’s a turn-up: a Morgan phone poll on Victorian state voting intention. Unfortunately, it has a sample of only 407 and a margin-of-error of nearly 5 per cent. That’s as well for Labor, as it has the Coalition with a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 37.5 per cent for Labor, 44.5 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. Curiously, the poll was conducted over a 12-day period from February 17-28.
Interesting that there is a decoupling of State and Federal intentions emerging in Victoria.