The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 and back to where it was a fortnight before, although both parties are up a point on the primary vote – Labor to 40 per cent and the Coalition to 41 per cent. Dennis Shanahan reports this is because “a slump in support for the Greens detracted from Labor’s second preferences”. More later.
UPDATE: Full results here, including nifty Flash display of results. Greens down three to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott is up three points on preferred prime minister to 30 per cent – the first time in the Rudd era it’s had a three in front of it, as noted in comments – while Rudd is steady on 55 per cent. Abbott’s also up four points on approval to 48 per cent, though disapproval is also up one to 38 per cent. Rudd has recovered a point from last fortnight’s approval low of 50 per cent, with disapproval steady on 40 per cent.
Today’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before. A question gauging Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott’s attributes records little change since December, while other questions find hostility towards population growth and support for means testing the private health insurance rebate.
Have I got news for you. From New South Wales:
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports Labor’s national executive is expected to abandon plans to impose its preferred candidate to succeed Bob Debus in Macquarie, instead allowing the matter to be decided by a rank-and-file ballot. This is a win for the Anthony Albanese Left over the Mark Arbib Right, as it is believed the former’s preferred candidate, Susan Templeman, has the numbers in the local branches. A national executive imposition would have installed Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who in the past has been identified with the “soft Left” but is evidently backed in the current instance by the Right. Searle was previously thwarted in his bid to succeed Debus as state member for Blue Mountains when Debus drafted Phil Koperberg. Benson paints Templeman and Robertson nominee Deb O’Neill as part of a move to follow the Howard-era Liberal strategy of having marginal seats contested by “soccer mums” rather than professional politicians.
• Labor Right faction convenor Matt Thistlethwaite will quit his position as New South Wales party secretary after the federal election and seek preselection for the Senate. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Thistlethwaite’s current position has become untenable after he lost the confidence of Luke Foley, deputy secretary and member of the Left, plus many on the Right when he “moved against Mr Rees last December but then backed NSW Environment Minister Frank Sartor for the premiership rather than the eventual winner, Kristina Keneally”. He will be succeeded in his current position by 27-year-old Sam Dastyari, a protéegé of Employment Participation Minister and Right faction heavyweight Mark Arbib. The evident certainty that Thistlethwaite will secure second postion on the Senate ticket behind John Faulkner means Graeme Wedderburn will not get the Senate seat he was promised when lured from the private sector to serve as chief-of-staff to Nathan Rees. In either event, the seat was to come at the expense of one of two incumbents: Steve Hutchins or Michael Forshaw.
• Labor sources tell Imre Salusinszky of The Australian that Robertson MP Belinda Neal has suffered a blow in her bid to survive Saturday’s preselection challenge from academic Deborah O’Neill, as 2005 attendance and membership records from the Woy Woy branch cannot be located. The branch is considered loyal to Neal, and the records are necessary to establish that members have attended meetings for at least four years, as required of preselectors by party rules. The sources say this could cost her up to 40 votes in a ballot of about 150 preselectors.
• Belinda Scott of the Central Coast Advocate reports Labor’s unsuccessful candidate for Cowper in 1998 and 2007, training consultant Paul Sefky, has expressed interest in running again. Sefky appears to harbour a grudge against the paper for its reporting of the manner in which he replaced local area health service worker John Fitzroy as candidate two months out from the 2007 election.
• Ben Smee of the Newcastle Herald reports Health Services Union organiser and former ambulance officer Jim Arneman has won Labor preselection for Paterson unopposed. Arneman was also the candidate in 2007, when he fell 1.5 per cent short of toppling Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin. The redistribution cut the margin to 0.4 per cent.
• State upper house member Robyn Parker has been confirmed as Liberal candidate for the lower house seat of Maitland. Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports rival candidates Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd, of Maitland City Council, and Brad Luke, of Newcastle City Council, withdrew ahead of the preselection meeting last Saturday. Maitland mayor Peter Blackmore says he will decide soon whether to run again as an independent, after falling 2.0 per cent short of toppling the now retiring Labor member Frank Terenzini.
• Reporting in the aftermath of last week’s preselection win by upper house member David Clarke against challenger David Elliott, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald said Elliott’s supporters were aggrieved at moderate elements, in particular Fahey government minister Michael Photios, for encouraging him to stay in the race so as to give the faction leverage in other preselection battles. Such leverage was used to secure preselection for Greg Pearce in the upper house and Robyn Parker in Maitland, in exchange for moderate support for Clarke at the expense of Elliott.
From Queensland:
• Nathan Paull of the Townsville Bulletin reports the Labor preselection for Herbert will be determined in the normal fashion, by a ballot divided between rank-and-file members and a central electoral committee, apparently following the intervention of Right faction powerbroker Bill Ludwig. This comes as a blow to former mayor Tony Mooney, who has the backing of the Prime Minister and was looking set to take the position on the intervention of the national executive. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Townsville councillor Jenny Hill is “believed to have more backers” in the local party than Mooney. John Anderson of the Townsville Bulletin reports that the Left has been directed (by whom he does not say) to fall in behind Mooney, despite the faction’s long-standing antagonism towards him. The candidate from 2007, local McDonald’s franchisor George Colbran, is yet to decide whether to nominate.
• The Whitsunday Times reports former Whitsunday Shire councillor Louise Mahony has expressed an interest in Labor preselection for Dawson, which James Bidgood is vacating after one term as member for health reasons. Whitsunday Regional Mayor Mike Brunker has ruled himself out. The Liberal National Party endorsed Mackay regional councillor George Christensen in November.
• An “LNP insider” tells Russel Guse of the Central Telegraph that Ken O’Dowd, owner of Busteed Building Supplies in Gladstone, is expected to be a candidate for preselection in Flynn, following the withdrawal last month of Colin Bourke for “personal reasons”.
• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Labor preselection in Ryan loom as a contest between Steven Miles and Martin Hanson of the Right, the latter being favoured by Rudd but the former apparently having the edge in the branches.
From the Australian Capital Territory:
• James Massola of the Canberra Times rpeorts Jenny Hargreaves, a public servant with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and wife of former ACT minister John Hargreaves, is considered likely to win the Centre Coalition faction’s endorsement for Labor preselection in Canberra. His rivals are Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, and Gai Brodtmann, who runs communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and is married to ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Massola says Hargreaves is a friend of the present incumbent, Annette Ellis, and is believed to be close to securing her endorsement. CFMEU industrial officer Louise Crossman has won the endorsement from the Left, and David Garner and Brendan Long are the main competitors for the endorsement of the Right, but it is the Centre Coalition which is believed likely to be decisive. Massola reports Hargreaves’ nomination points to a breakdown in relations between John Hargreaves and Andrew Barr, who are both figures in the Centre Coalition.
• In the ACT’s other seat of Fraser, to be vacated by Bob McMullan, Nick Martin is said to be the favourite after winning endorsement from the Left; George Williams has the backing of Labor Unity (not to mention Malcolm Fraser); and David Peebles and Chris Sant are the front-runners for the Centre Coalition. The preselection for both seats is likely to be determined in late April.
From Victoria:
• After a traumatic final term in parliament, ALP Victorian upper house member for Northern Metropolitan Theo Theophanous has made a surprise decision to quit parliament nine months before the election. His vacancy will be filled by Nathan Murphy, plumbers’ union official and ally of Bill Shorten, who had already been preselected for the election.
This is the first time in this parliamentary term that any of the 3 Liberal leaders has had preferred PM rating of at least 30%. Excluding Abbott’s earlier polls, the other highest was Turnbull who had a 26% in mid October.
So will Shanahan focus on the PPM shift or write a “no change” piece? The initial article seems very subdued…
Let’s hope this is the nadir.
[Turnbull who had a 26% in mid October.]
I meant mid October, 2008
Net satisfaction for Rudd: 10%
Net satisfaction for Abbott: 7%
First time in a long time that coalition has had PPM of at least 30%.
Good poll for the Libs.
[The initial article seems very subdued…]
He’s probably feeling a little teary at the moment.
VP #1778 (previous thread)
You are correct a one-time dancer, but even more improbably China’s first (mtf) transsexual.
Her amazing story was featured in a profile in last Saturday’s Age (and maybe SMH)
http://www.theage.com.au/news/entertainment/arts/the-dance-of-yin-amp-yang/2010/02/27/1266687178794.html
From William’s thread header:
[the primary vote – Labor to 40 per cent and the Coalition to 41 per cent]
What’s the bet that will form the gist of their ABC’s headline:
[Coalition leads Labor in Newspoll]
The Oz never misses an opportunity to Boost Abbott, Andrew.
The slump in Green support could have gone to undecided maybe?
Would that account for Lab Lib primaries each up 1 but 2PP showing a rise for Libs?
News Ltd is running with Essential’s findings:
[Abbott ‘narrow-minded’, new poll finds]
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/abbott-narrow-minded-new-poll-finds/story-e6frfku0-1225835790241
Has the ABC run that story yet?
[Good poll for the Libs.]
Only if you consider losing elections good.
From the other thread…
We have to remember, when reading the Bible, that it’s a translation of a translation (and often there’s been another translation along the way).
Jokes often don’t travel well from culture to culture, let alone language to language – and what seemed hilariously funny in the fifties, only half a century ago, seems a little off now.
I’m told by people who study these things that Jesus was actually quite witty and used a lot of irony, but (as with a lot of these things) ‘you had to be there’.
Chances are that some verses from the Bible that we take very seriously had them rolling in the aisles back then…
From the HS
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-to-seize-control-of-hospital-funding-from-states/story-0-1225835817746
[Health spending by the states is rising at 11 per cent a year compared with their revenue growth of 4 per cent.
Mr Rudd believes the single funding system will remove the waste, inefficiency and blame-shifting that costs millions of dollars and which could otherwise be spent on patients.
Doctors working in hospitals have been arguing for a single national funding system, and are expected to warmly welcome the plan.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said Mr Rudd was trying to shift attention away from the roof insulation fiasco.]
Abbott’s preferred issue which has given him a boost is slipping quickly into the distance.
No 12
Again, verballing. Good poll in the context of a string of terrible polls over the last three years.
And according to Antony, the Coalition only gain 7 seats and the margins are microscopic.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=-0.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Zoom
the one about the greeks inheriting the earth must have gorn down well
[Again, verballing.]
LOL! You can’t debate so you just accuse people of verballing!
A 52 on election night will be ANOTHER Liberal loss.
[Good poll in the context of a string of terrible polls over the last three years.]
But STILL a number that will result in a loss!
[Good poll in the context of a string of terrible polls over the last three years.]
Those “terrible” polls have been better than they deserved…
[Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said Mr Rudd was trying to shift attention away from the roof insulation fiasco.]
He sounds pissed off, doesn’t he. That would have to be the last gasp.
Reminds me of Truthy when the asylum seekers sailed off into the political sunset.
Frank, I reckon the tide is turning. This will be the Liberals best Newspoll. There’s only one way for them to go from here and that’s down around the S bend.
The Greens primary will be an interesting figure. If it declines by more than 2% as Shanahan appears to imply, then be prepared for “the say it ain’t so” whinge fest.
Richard Dawkins on Q&A next week. One not to be missed – even if he has to share the stage with Mesma.
Perhaps now the Labor hacks in here will stop being complacent.
Rudd isn’t a shoe-in, as I said this will be a tight race.. though I suspect Rudd will still win the election.
[Good poll for the Libs.]
When you see a poll like that and come to the above conclusion one can only say that you’ve set your sights way too low.
Richard Dawkins on Q&A next week. One not to be missed – even if he has to share the stage with Mesma.]
The Sublime and the Asinine.
Shows @ 12
Of COURSE losing elections is good. It builds character, makes men out of ninety pound weaklings, puts hairs on your chest, separates the men from the boys….etc etc
Wearing hair shirts, giving up sex for Lent and self flaggelatting are really really good things too.
The Liberals are not seeking their rewards in this world, but in the one to come.
(There. Their whole election strategy revealed…)
GP,
Actually if you focussed on the trend, then it is a continuation of a steady improvement by the Libs since about October. I suppose that can be construed as positive.
However, still showing Labor in an election winning position.
Good evening William and fellow Bludgers!
Sorry I haven’t been in here for a few weeks – Í’ve been busy with work and other things! 😉
A big hi especially to Vera, Andrew, Showson, Socrates, Finnegans, Dario etc. 😉
So the Fed takeover will happen by Rudd holding onto the States GSTs and squeezing. OUCH!
If there is anything to garner from the current Rudd strategy it is that Abbott can’t use the “smoke and mirrors” accusation anymore. Abbott will need to release another policy, or risk sounding too oppositionist for the public’s liking. He has done well to reverse the Coalition’s fortunes in the last three months, but to keep momentum, he needs to do more on policy. Unless there are more deaths in the insulation program, the issue is virtually dead in the media.
Furthermore, Rudd’s mea culpa yesterday was all about lowering expectations and cleverly tempering, perhaps reversing, any potential negative media coverage from a change in the polls. Instead of the media running “Rudd sinks to new low”, it is “Rudd avoids whacking”. Cunning, but it worked.
[Rudd isn’t a shoe-in, as I said this will be a tight race.. though I suspect Rudd will still win the election.]
After the few weeks Labor have had, according to this poll, they would still win the election comfortably. They’ll win the next election all right of that I’m very confident.
[Rudd will still win the election]
Finally you’ve got it.
[still showing Labor in an election winning position]
Now that the PM has found his mojo it’s onward and upward from here.
Relax BB (3). Assuming the Newspoll is correct – and that is very debatable given the higher TPP for Labor in other polls – I think this is the closest the libs will get. They’ve had a dream run from the the media over the past month and the real stuff that will decide the election hasn’t even started yet. When it does Tone won’t know what hit him.
zombie mao for Alannah@30
Especially those of Messers Barnett and Buswell 🙂
This is actually a bad poll for the Liberals!
After the disasterous fortnight the Rudd Government has endured, one might have expected a 50-50 result or even a 51-49 lead to the Coalition.
The Mad Monk should stop bleating about pink bats and crying crocodile tears over those 4 unfortunate young blokes.
Indeed the problem with Abbott is that the man does nothing but carp, criticise, oppose every single Rudd Government measure & make malicious comments.
31 – Spot on GP.
[to keep momentum, he needs to do more on policy]
They’ve only got one policy that they’re committed to. So, let’s hear him come clean about their intention wrt SerfChoices. Remember, Minchin believes Howard’s effort didn’t go far enough, and you know who’s pulling Abbott’s strings…
Mesma will be batting her eyes and flirting with anyone wearing pants on next weeks Q$A. That’s about the limit of her skills 😉
Hello Evan, these ‘other things’? No i won’t ask! 😀
Yes GP – I think you nailed it.
[Abbott will need to release another policy, or risk sounding too oppositionist for the public’s liking.]
Don’t lose faith G.P.! Abbott announced a new policy! He wants the Bible taught in ALL schools! http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26506144-952,00.html
One piece of advice I’d give to the Ruddster: highlight more the talented ministers on your frontbench, not just the wonderful Julia, but also Roxon, Smith, Crean, Stephen Smith etc.
Rudd and Julia did well today with the launch of the new curriculum!
[Don’t lose faith G.P.! Abbott announced a new policy! He wants the Bible taught in ALL schools! ]
Such substance!
[If there is anything to garner from the current Rudd strategy it is that Abbott can’t use the “smoke and mirrors” accusation anymore. Abbott will need to release another policy, or risk sounding too oppositionist for the public’s liking. He has done well to reverse the Coalition’s fortunes in the last three months, but to keep momentum, he needs to do more on policy.]
Agreed – sensible comment
[Unless there are more deaths in the insulation program, the issue is virtually dead in the media.]
Sounds like you have your fingers crossed
[Furthermore, Rudd’s mea culpa yesterday was all about lowering expectations and cleverly tempering, perhaps reversing, any potential negative media coverage from a change in the polls. Instead of the media running “Rudd sinks to new low”, it is “Rudd avoids whacking”. Cunning, but it worked.]
Another sensible comment.
A new comer to this blog could think your post is that of an independent thinker with no political eye patch. Well done. 🙂 Hope you do it more often.
GP,
You may like to read Piping Shrikes piece today. It makes points similar to yours in 31.
http://www.pipingshrike.com/
No 38
I say Abbott should come out straight and say “we will abolish unfair dismissal laws” for all businesses with less than 100 employees.
That will be enough of a reform for me. It is a disgusting law that allows reinstatement of workers even where the dismissal is “just and reasonable”.
“Perhaps now the Labor hacks in here will stop being complacent.”
Ay? 52-48 after their worst week and Abbott getting a free run for the last month. It won’t stay 52-48 for long… wait for the widely-supported national curriculum and upcoming health discussions to kick in, all the while Abbott still pounding on about the insulation saga. Late March Newspoll will push out again, bookmark it.
[Hello Evan, these ‘other things’? No i won’t ask!]
😀
Vera, I’m feeling good!
I watched Julia completely bamboozle Kerry O’Brien earlier – that made my night.
And Newspoll is the cherry on top of the cake.
I insist you apologise to asses, now!
[Sorry I haven’t been in here for a few weeks – Í’ve been busy with work and other things]
Not good enough ev. We might have to make you stay back and write lines 😉