Newspoll: 52-48

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 and back to where it was a fortnight before, although both parties are up a point on the primary vote – Labor to 40 per cent and the Coalition to 41 per cent. Dennis Shanahan reports this is because “a slump in support for the Greens detracted from Labor’s second preferences”. More later.

UPDATE: Full results here, including nifty Flash display of results. Greens down three to 9 per cent. Tony Abbott is up three points on preferred prime minister to 30 per cent – the first time in the Rudd era it’s had a three in front of it, as noted in comments – while Rudd is steady on 55 per cent. Abbott’s also up four points on approval to 48 per cent, though disapproval is also up one to 38 per cent. Rudd has recovered a point from last fortnight’s approval low of 50 per cent, with disapproval steady on 40 per cent.

Today’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before. A question gauging Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott’s attributes records little change since December, while other questions find hostility towards population growth and support for means testing the private health insurance rebate.

Have I got news for you. From New South Wales:

• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports Labor’s national executive is expected to abandon plans to impose its preferred candidate to succeed Bob Debus in Macquarie, instead allowing the matter to be decided by a rank-and-file ballot. This is a win for the Anthony Albanese Left over the Mark Arbib Right, as it is believed the former’s preferred candidate, Susan Templeman, has the numbers in the local branches. A national executive imposition would have installed Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who in the past has been identified with the “soft Left” but is evidently backed in the current instance by the Right. Searle was previously thwarted in his bid to succeed Debus as state member for Blue Mountains when Debus drafted Phil Koperberg. Benson paints Templeman and Robertson nominee Deb O’Neill as part of a move to follow the Howard-era Liberal strategy of having marginal seats contested by “soccer mums” rather than professional politicians.

• Labor Right faction convenor Matt Thistlethwaite will quit his position as New South Wales party secretary after the federal election and seek preselection for the Senate. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Thistlethwaite’s current position has become untenable after he lost the confidence of Luke Foley, deputy secretary and member of the Left, plus many on the Right when he “moved against Mr Rees last December but then backed NSW Environment Minister Frank Sartor for the premiership rather than the eventual winner, Kristina Keneally”. He will be succeeded in his current position by 27-year-old Sam Dastyari, a protéegé of Employment Participation Minister and Right faction heavyweight Mark Arbib. The evident certainty that Thistlethwaite will secure second postion on the Senate ticket behind John Faulkner means Graeme Wedderburn will not get the Senate seat he was promised when lured from the private sector to serve as chief-of-staff to Nathan Rees. In either event, the seat was to come at the expense of one of two incumbents: Steve Hutchins or Michael Forshaw.

• Labor sources tell Imre Salusinszky of The Australian that Robertson MP Belinda Neal has suffered a blow in her bid to survive Saturday’s preselection challenge from academic Deborah O’Neill, as 2005 attendance and membership records from the Woy Woy branch cannot be located. The branch is considered loyal to Neal, and the records are necessary to establish that members have attended meetings for at least four years, as required of preselectors by party rules. The sources say this could cost her up to 40 votes in a ballot of about 150 preselectors.

• Belinda Scott of the Central Coast Advocate reports Labor’s unsuccessful candidate for Cowper in 1998 and 2007, training consultant Paul Sefky, has expressed interest in running again. Sefky appears to harbour a grudge against the paper for its reporting of the manner in which he replaced local area health service worker John Fitzroy as candidate two months out from the 2007 election.

• Ben Smee of the Newcastle Herald reports Health Services Union organiser and former ambulance officer Jim Arneman has won Labor preselection for Paterson unopposed. Arneman was also the candidate in 2007, when he fell 1.5 per cent short of toppling Liberal incumbent Bob Baldwin. The redistribution cut the margin to 0.4 per cent.

• State upper house member Robyn Parker has been confirmed as Liberal candidate for the lower house seat of Maitland. Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports rival candidates Bob Geoghegan and Stephen Mudd, of Maitland City Council, and Brad Luke, of Newcastle City Council, withdrew ahead of the preselection meeting last Saturday. Maitland mayor Peter Blackmore says he will decide soon whether to run again as an independent, after falling 2.0 per cent short of toppling the now retiring Labor member Frank Terenzini.

• Reporting in the aftermath of last week’s preselection win by upper house member David Clarke against challenger David Elliott, Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald said Elliott’s supporters were aggrieved at moderate elements, in particular Fahey government minister Michael Photios, for encouraging him to stay in the race so as to give the faction leverage in other preselection battles. Such leverage was used to secure preselection for Greg Pearce in the upper house and Robyn Parker in Maitland, in exchange for moderate support for Clarke at the expense of Elliott.

From Queensland:

• Nathan Paull of the Townsville Bulletin reports the Labor preselection for Herbert will be determined in the normal fashion, by a ballot divided between rank-and-file members and a central electoral committee, apparently following the intervention of Right faction powerbroker Bill Ludwig. This comes as a blow to former mayor Tony Mooney, who has the backing of the Prime Minister and was looking set to take the position on the intervention of the national executive. Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Townsville councillor Jenny Hill is “believed to have more backers” in the local party than Mooney. John Anderson of the Townsville Bulletin reports that the Left has been directed (by whom he does not say) to fall in behind Mooney, despite the faction’s long-standing antagonism towards him. The candidate from 2007, local McDonald’s franchisor George Colbran, is yet to decide whether to nominate.

• The Whitsunday Times reports former Whitsunday Shire councillor Louise Mahony has expressed an interest in Labor preselection for Dawson, which James Bidgood is vacating after one term as member for health reasons. Whitsunday Regional Mayor Mike Brunker has ruled himself out. The Liberal National Party endorsed Mackay regional councillor George Christensen in November.

• An “LNP insider” tells Russel Guse of the Central Telegraph that Ken O’Dowd, owner of Busteed Building Supplies in Gladstone, is expected to be a candidate for preselection in Flynn, following the withdrawal last month of Colin Bourke for “personal reasons”.

• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail reports Labor preselection in Ryan loom as a contest between Steven Miles and Martin Hanson of the Right, the latter being favoured by Rudd but the former apparently having the edge in the branches.

From the Australian Capital Territory:

• James Massola of the Canberra Times rpeorts Jenny Hargreaves, a public servant with the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and wife of former ACT minister John Hargreaves, is considered likely to win the Centre Coalition faction’s endorsement for Labor preselection in Canberra. His rivals are Michael Cooney, chief-of-staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, and Gai Brodtmann, who runs communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and is married to ABC reporter Chris Uhlmann. Massola says Hargreaves is a friend of the present incumbent, Annette Ellis, and is believed to be close to securing her endorsement. CFMEU industrial officer Louise Crossman has won the endorsement from the Left, and David Garner and Brendan Long are the main competitors for the endorsement of the Right, but it is the Centre Coalition which is believed likely to be decisive. Massola reports Hargreaves’ nomination points to a breakdown in relations between John Hargreaves and Andrew Barr, who are both figures in the Centre Coalition.

• In the ACT’s other seat of Fraser, to be vacated by Bob McMullan, Nick Martin is said to be the favourite after winning endorsement from the Left; George Williams has the backing of Labor Unity (not to mention Malcolm Fraser); and David Peebles and Chris Sant are the front-runners for the Centre Coalition. The preselection for both seats is likely to be determined in late April.

From Victoria:

• After a traumatic final term in parliament, ALP Victorian upper house member for Northern Metropolitan Theo Theophanous has made a surprise decision to quit parliament nine months before the election. His vacancy will be filled by Nathan Murphy, plumbers’ union official and ally of Bill Shorten, who had already been preselected for the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,092 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. The Liberal platform for the next election:
    Bash blacks, the unemployed, the disabled, single mothers, boat people! And of course cotow to Murdoch and his journalists.

  2. [I say Abbott should come out straight and say “we will abolish unfair dismissal laws” for all businesses with less than 100 employees.]
    And if he says that he will lose the election in a massive landslide.

  3. A good interview with A C Grayling on LL. Wide ranging: religion on the way out, funding for faith schools, climate change.

  4. Abbott’s been getting a free run for more than the last month. That’s just been the insulation beat-up phase. He’s been on Favourites Street with the media since he replaced Turnbull.

  5. [Not good enough ev. We might have to make you stay back and write lines]

    Dario, Landslide has been busy over at the other board. 😉
    One thing I am pleased about – the absence of Bob and his trolling.
    Did William finally ban him?

  6. I saw Dawkins speak today at the Adelaide WW Festival. It was pretty standard Dawkins stuff. He is rather polarizing and for me I love him. He says the things I’m thinking but hold back from saying to my superstitious, magic thinking friends. Plus the biology stuff is pretty good.

    Anyway The Australian is the Liberals counterpart to GreenLeft Weekly – It is BlueRight Daily. It is an absolute scandal the way they give voices to CC denialists, every single day. I’d start boycotting them if I wasn’t already. BlueRight Dailey will phrase this poll like it does every news item: to aid conservative forces.

  8. [Hello Evan, these ‘other things’? No i won’t ask!]

    Vera, Evan and i were in the same boat with the “other things” …… we were drifting along by some nice distraction …….

  9. Cuppa: Considering the blatant media bias against the Australian Labor Party and Kevin Rudd, a poll showing Labor on track to win a comfortable majority is a very commendable result for the government. 😉
    As most of the MSM have already annointed Abbott as the next PM, a few of the right wing journalists must be rather dismayed LOL

  11. I agree with GP. But I’m perplexed why their environment policy wasn’t laughed out of parliament as the high school essay that it was. I mean trees, really!! the governments national curriculum will be a big 6 hit straight into the grandstand, the hospital reforms if they occur will also be a 6

  12. [What is the Piping Strike political slant?]
    LOL! Why not engage in an argument for once instead of simply basing your judgments on someone’s “political slant”?

  13. No 56

    Whilst I generally agree with the science of climate change, I believe in free speech and balance in the media. That means that opinions I don’t like or don’t agree with will be aired.

    So when you say that it is scandalous that people who disagree with the science are given air time, you really are arguing for censorship.

  14. [Vera, Evan and i were in the same boat with the “other things” …… we were drifting along by some nice distraction …….]

    I’m just enjoying myself until Conroy brings in that damned filter. 😀

  15. [It is an absolute scandal the way they give voices to CC denialists, every single day]

    Their ABC is running with a different climate change denialist every day this week at The Drum.

  17. [Evan and i were in the same boat with the “other things”]
    Finns
    you naughty boys!

    I think it should be Bible classes for both of you 😀

  18. No 61

    centaur009 the simple fact of the matter is that the Government’s CPRS sucks balls badly. There’s no other way of putting it.

    The Government can’t even sell it properly, yet it will add significant cost to daily essentials.

  19. [the hospital reforms if they occur will also be a 6]
    The Government will win health reform either way. If the states agree, then the government gets their reform legislated before the election. If the states disagree, then the government goes to an election fighting a policy argument with the states, which will be seen as Rudd showing national leadership.

    Plus Labor is generally considered better to deal with health, so they win votes every day they talk about the issue.

  20. No 65

    And subsequent to my post at No 63, Cuppa believes the ABC’s The Drum, a vehicle for opinion and debate, should exclude diverse opinion and debate. He believes in censorship. After all, he wants to censor our internet.

  22. [Whilst I generally agree with the science of climate change]
    What parts do you disagree with?
    [I believe in free speech and balance in the media. ]
    The Australian’s coverage of climate science has been far from balanced.
    [So when you say that it is scandalous that people who disagree with the science are given air time, you really are arguing for censorship.]
    Not at all. Climate change deniers should simply be asked to reference their works with citations to peer reviewed scientific studies.

  24. [So when you say that it is scandalous that people who disagree with the science are given air time, you really are arguing for censorship.]

    A page of crap occupies the same volume of space as a page of wisdom. Newspapers have been using this simple fact to make dodgy theories and partisan claptrap look the equal of properly argued and researched writing for years.

  25. No 69

    Rudd will not win votes in QLD and NSW, given how absolutely terrible the Labor governments in those states have run their respective health systems. Dr Death, anyone?

  26. Piping Shrike is an Independant thinker who believes that Australian politics has been de ideologised because of the economic reforms of the last thirty years.

  27. No 74

    Sorry BB, free speech doesn’t cease to operate just because someone’s opinion might be, in your opinion, poorly researched and improperly argued.

    That’s your problem. You think free speech should be limited to an elite few.

  28. [Rudd will not win votes in QLD and NSW, given how absolutely terrible the Labor governments in those states ]
    What? Why won’t he win votes by saying the feds will take over the funding and operation of hospitals?

    Your post is an argument in favour of Rudd’s reforms.

  29. Evan
    Bob1234 is still around. Probably not showing his face tonight because of Shamaman saying the Greens took a hit in newspoll.
    Remember his hundreds of posts a while back that all ended in 12% 13% skiting about the Greens.

  30. Did anyone else read a brilliant editorial in Saturday’s SMH?
    It completely nailed the Liberals for their policy of opposing virtually everything this government does and holding up legislation in the senate.
    The acid test will soon be on the Mad Monk and his troops. It’s OK to oppose everything and make nasty personal remarks about Rudd, but sooner or later, the Libs will need to put out some detailed policies AND explain how they’re going to pay for their programs.
    One doubts that the “dream team” of Sloppy Joe and Barnyard will be up to the task of balancing the books! 😉

  31. [That’s your problem. You think free speech should be limited to an elite few.]

    I think equal time and column inches should be given to opinions of equal weight.

    Climate denialism is a crackpot hodge-podge of gotchas, half-truths and cherry picking. It does not deserve equal coverage. It should be treated exactly the same as Flat Earthers.

  33. GP: Federal Labor is holding up well in NSW, Robertson is the only seat they’d be worried about losing(and if they preselect Belinda again, they can forget about retaining it anyway).

  34. No 81

    And who decides the weight to be attributed to each argument? Once you start picking and choosing, you begin excluding opinions you don’t like.

    Sorry BB, I cannot agree to a policy which says only certain people deserve to air their opinions.

  36. [So when you say that it is scandalous that people who disagree with the science are given air time, you really are arguing for censorship.]

    I have no problem with dissenting views being heard. Where I part company with the AGW ‘opinions’ given precedence at The Oz is the crackpot worshipping, distortions and gross misrepresentations the paper entertains at the expense of rigorous, genuine scientific inquiry. If they must run denialist pieces can they at least ensure they are logical and not based on distortions?

  37. Yes I agree GP about the poor sell, and arguably negligable reduction….but it was about getting a system up and running.
    As for the coalitions- come on GP that was not a policy- it was a high school essay- 500sq kms of trees- for nothing doing nothing costing over 7 billion

  39. [Balance = equal application of rigour]

    Exactly. In a debating panel of two, the 1% opinion gets one representative and the 99% gets one as well. This gives the impression that the 1%er’s theory has equal weight to the 99%. In matters of pure opinion this may not be so bad, but in matters of science and verifiable fact, it’s inexcusable.

  40. Evan #59, I think you’re right. The negative focus can only stay solely on the government for so long (barring any more stuff-ups). When the media eventually shift to critiquing Abbott, I mean asking him the hard questions, putting him under some real scrutiny – rather than just pissing in his pocket as they’ve been doing since December – the results won’t be good for that side.

    And when the spotlight is turned onto the other undeads on his frontbench, things will go from bad to worse for them …

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/03/01/newspoll-52-48-4/comment-page-2/#comment-414442

  41. GP,

    “You think free speech should be limited to an elite few”.,

    That logic is how how you end up with Barnaby as your Finance spokesperson. Even economic illiterates should get a chance to air their views no matter how loopy they be.

  42. [And who decides the weight to be attributed to each argument?]
    So should The Australian publish articles on Intelligent Design?
    [Once you start picking and choosing, you begin excluding opinions you don’t like. ]
    Which is a perfect summary of The Australian publishing a constant stream of climate change denial articles. I recall one week where EVERY DAY there was an opinion piece arguing against climate change. Which of course culminated in The Australian winning an award from the petroleum industry!
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/editor-in-chief-chris-mitchell-wins-top-award/story-e6frg6no-1225720528007

  43. [Australia beat england and italy in terms of medals at the winter olympics]

    Not bad considering we live in the hottest continent on earth.

  44. No 87

    I agree with the principle of direct action on Climate Change. It needs MASSIVE investment if you want material change in time.

    The ETS is a load of nonsense. Too many exclusions, too many distortions, too much compensation and cuts only achieved by buying offsets in the south pacific. It is none other than muculent trickery.

  46. Generic Person,
    Equally you might say that it was Tony Abbott that was federal Health Minister at the time of the Dr Death scandal in Queensland, and as a result of Howard government policies, which he must have endorsed, not allowing funding for training places for Aussie kids to do Medicine, we imported quacks from overseas on the cheap; and that’s what we got, Dr Jayant Patel.

  49. [Climate denialism is a crackpot hodge-podge of gotchas, half-truths and cherry picking. It does not deserve equal coverage. It should be treated exactly the same as Flat Earthers.]

    BB, you should go over to The Drum and tell that to the group of denialists that is being ‘featured’ every day this week.

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