The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.
It’s all happening in New South Wales:
• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.
• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.
• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.
• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.
• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.
• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.
• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.
No 1303
Don’t be absurd. You’re including Howard in that mix, and he lost his seat at the election. I should also say that even had he retained Bennelong, you can’t have seriously expected him to stay on as leader.
[I love how you say all that without the slightest ounce of self-awareness. Howard supposedly created a hand-out mentality, yet Rudd has no qualms about sending $900 and $1000 cheques to various people, including those overseas and six feet under.]
None of whom will have any expectations of handouts beyond the election. You can’t say the same about Howard’s lot.
[The coalition is not out of the mainstream on climate change issues,]
57% of those surveyed in recent Newspoll disagree with you.
[considering that many MPs received an unprecedented level of correspondence regarding the ETS]
Didn’t Possum have some analysis that blew that theory out of the water?
[I should also say that even had he retained Bennelong, you can’t have seriously expected him to stay on as leader.]
But of course he promised he would stay in parliament, and since Honest John never told a lie he would’ve stuck to that.
I propose the funniest part of this week’s Glenn Milne article is this bit:
[f Bartlett goes down, federal Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott’s chances will be greatly enhanced. Put that with the latest Galaxy Poll showing Rudd is in potentially serious trouble in Queensland and you see what I mean about the Prime Minister being a worried man.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/facebook-friends-drop-one-on-tasmanias-robin/story-e6frg6zo-1225832747854
The Galaxy poll Milne references comes down to this:
[If preferences were allocated as per the last election, the Coalition would lead on 51 per cent to the ALP’s 49 per cent.]
Plug that into Antony’s 2010 election calculator, and the Liberals pick up 2 seats. However, 1 of those seats is Dickson which is counted as a Labor marginal because of a redistribution.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=-1.4&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
So Milne’s big QLD landslide wet dream featuring Rudd in “serious trouble” in QLD comes down to one net seat to the Liberals.
And yet Milne gets paid $200,000+ a year…
Generic Person: This is a genuine question because I am indeed curious, but how do you feel about the Liberals wanting to fight the election on old issues? And are you happy with Barnaby Joyce occupying a pivotal position on opposition front bench?
No 1355
I find that question equally hilarious given how the Rudd government has scrambled to get the CPRS off the agenda and on to more traditional issues like the economy and health.
As for Joyce, Abbott’s strategy is high-risk and is all about cutting through. The problem is that Joyce’s one-liners happen to give the Government too many free-kicks at the moment. I’ll give him a couple of more months to see how he goes, but he’s been a bit shaky so far.
I don’t understand what you mean about the CPRS?
Anyways, don’t you think that Barnaby de-legitimises the Liberals on economic matters? The Nationals are raving socialists – look at their climate change ‘policy’, nothing but a great big taxpayer funded cash giveaway.
No 1352
Lol, that is a ridiculous statement. So, according to you, voters don’t expect handouts under Labor, yet they do under the Liberals.
You’re digging a nice hole for yourself.
No 1357
[I don’t understand what you mean about the CPRS?]
Well, isn’t the CPRS a comparatively “new” issue (in the context of your original question)?
[The Nationals are raving socialists – look at their climate change ‘policy’, nothing but a great big taxpayer funded cash giveaway.]
Stop lying. Rudd is giving away 10 times as much in “compensation”.
A pictorial translation of Glenn Milnes latest column:
Generic Person: the Liberals climate change policy robs taxpayers to pay industry to increase its emissions. There is no price on emissions, just another government grant scheme just like the Regional Grants program the Nats rorted when they were in government. You aren’t seriously defending it, surely? Where is the rigour?
GP, i think the point about handouts is that while Howard made the fundamental strategic error of creating the expectation that his handouts would be ongoing, the cash handouts given as the early part of the ALP stimulus package were only ever once off’s, and everyone knew it.
Rudd made the handouts as part of a legitimate response to the GFC. Howard made the handouts essentially as bribes to help get himself re-elected, when he should have been spending the money infrastructure and services.
Thank whatever gods you worship that Howard and the Libs were gone by the time the GFC broke GP. If they hadnt been we wouldbe facing much higher unemployment today, and be facing years more in recovery time.
In addition, he’s spending $43 billion on a national broadband network that isn’t required. He spend $52 billion on stimulus packages that stimulated retail spending for goods produced overseas, on pink batts that killed people and on cheques for dead people. So before you pejoratively cast the Liberal Party as socialists, perhaps you should look in your own backyard. At the very least, the tenor of your argument is both disingenuous and hypocritical.
[Lol, that is a ridiculous statement. So, according to you, voters don’t expect handouts under Labor, yet they do under the Liberals. ]
The dead people, no. 😀
The Howard Handouts are systematic, ingrained over years and are toxic to our country’s long term ecoomic position. Frankly I feel the reason Abbott wants to avenge the Howard legacy is because he must know how flimsy it is. Once the Rudd govt brings the budget back into surplus and re-focuses on the reform agenda it will have a mandate to implement, the Howard years will look bankrupt, years of wasted opportunity.
Who cares. The LHC will be turned on again this week and we will all be obliterated.
Yeah, maybe when they turn the LHC back on we will all be sucked down a wormhole into some other universe where Howard won in 2007! Oh the humanity!!!!
This Peter Schiff guy was for a few years before the sub-prime meltdown giving lectures of its danger and the meltdown to come, trying to warn people how bad the future was going to get.
The video is recap of him giving his message and those snickering and laughing at him on Fox, in the UK and so forth….pretty much humiliating him…..but he ended up with the biggest ‘told you so’.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8nrZthYbNM&feature=player_embedded
Generic Person @ 1363: The broadband upgrade is required – I have WOOFAs work on my property and I’ve had Sth koreans tut tut at the speed and reliability of our broadband. South Korea! And on the insulation stimulus scheme, am I to interpret from your comments that you would be in favour of {gasp!} greater regulation of contractors & small business outlets who were installing the stuff?
Ahh, good old Devine Miranda:
What is LHC?
Watch The Fibs get stuck into this – all I can say is two words – Julie “Axe Wielder” Bishop:-)
No 1361
If I were in the mood for a libertarian argument about tax being theft, I’d probably be on the verge of partly agreeing with you.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, tax payers are not being robbed to pay industry to increase its emissions. The so-called big-polluters are the energy companies which allow our population to do the basics like keep their houses alight and drive their cars to work. The Rudd government’s attack on “big-polluters” is occurring in a complete vacuum from reality, in a sphere of ignorance and stupidity.
The CPRS is a punitive measure that increases the costs of those basics without there being an immediate and cost-effective alternative to reduce them. This is the whole lot of nonsense about the cap on emissions + ETS. It’s fantastic for the government to massage its emissions figures by trading-off our otherwise increasing emissions for offsets in south-pacific countries, but all the while everyone will be paying a lot more for electricity and basic goods. After all the compensation has been paid, low income earners are still not going to have the capacity to go out and spend $20,000 putting solar panels on their roofs. Small businesses, of which energy comprises about 1-3% of total costs, are not going to have much capacity to invest tens of thousands to change to cleaner energy, but they’ll be hit with higher costs for all of their inputs which they’ll then have to pass on. Again, all nonsensical.
Abbott’s scheme does not punish people, it gives them proper incentives to change. Most of all, it is much simpler to administer and explain. You can go on and on about the lack of a cap on emissions, but the reality is that you need massive investment to actually change the means by which our economy consumes energy. With all the exemptions, exclusions, distortions, freebies and compensation involved in Rudd’s CPRS, Abbott’s scheme at least has half a chance of something being achieved by 2020 without costing everyone an arm and a leg.
No 1364
Rudd’s not going to be back in surplus for a long time yet.
Garrett under the spotlight again
Building the Tillegra Dam was a central plank Labor platform committment at the 2007 NSW election. It has been roundly condemned by many environmentalists, economists and water experts.
Garrett has the power to axe the project under Commonwealth environmental protection and biodiversity conservation laws,
[ The Greens MP John Kaye said having spent $1.47 million repairing and protecting the Hunter wetlands under the $403 million Caring for Our Country scheme, Mr Garrett could not sanction their potential destruction.
”One level of government is funding to repair the wetlands, while another is pushing a project that will destroy them,” Dr Kaye said. ”If Mr Garrett fails to reject the dam, he will have to admit that he wasted $1.47 million of taxpayers’ money.”
]
SMH, $1.5m spent on wetlands but new dam poses risk
Well, Downers appointment seems to have been a roaring sucess??
http://www.smh.com.au/world/hostility-towards-downer-grows-in-cyprus-20100221-oo08.html
Not!
[It is amazing that people still try it on with the pretend Labor or Liberal or whatever supporter. People here and other places don’t take long to identify who are genuine, who are the different variety of trolls. Not that it matters I guess.]
“It’s Time” – cannot imagine why you think I was referring to you? You are a recent arrival and barely come up on the radar screen. Those to whom I was referring know who they are. :/
[Watch The Fibs get stuck into this – all I can say is two words – Julie “Axe Wielder” Bishop:-)]
Any clues what it is so I dont have to click?
No 1368
No, it isn’t required. Certainly not at the gargantuan cost that the Government is proposing. That’s 43 times larger than the OPEL scheme Howard proposed which would get regional and rural areas on par with the cities. It’s also ten times larger than Rudd’s original 2007 election promise.
And South Korea is not a valid comparison considering that (a) Australia is 76 times larger in land area; and (b) South Korea is comprised of mostly high-density towns and cities.
[And yet Milne gets paid $200,000+ a year…]
For what?!? You can get sleazy porn on the net for free that would be better quality and more informative.
Thomas Paine@1377
Rudd appearing on Good News Week 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/21/2825714.htm
[Latest asylum boat shows Rudd a soft touch]
[Pressure is mounting on the Federal Government to strengthen border security, with the arrival of another boatload of asylum seekers in Australian waters.
The Federal Opposition is calling 2010 the year of the people smuggler.
Australian authorities intercepted the boat containing 10 asylum seekers near the Ashmore Islands yesterday morning.
Opposition Immigration spokesman Scott Morrison says the Government should take action to curb the number of arrivals.
“2010 is fast becoming the year of the people smuggler under Kevin Rudd. At this rate it will be an absolute bumper year for this heinous business. And the Government remains completely in denial of the existence of even a problem,” he said.]
The Year of the people smuggler indeed. I won’t be surprised if Rudd breaks 6000 Boatpeople this year.
No 1379
I’m sure Milne is more productive than the Labor mate/hack Conroy hired at NBN Co for $450,000 per year.
[Abbott’s scheme does not punish people, it gives them proper incentives to change.]
I’m sorry, but it doesn’t. It gives industry an incentive to try to second guess whatever parameters government will place around ‘industry assistance’ in order to qualify for grants.
At the end of the day GHGEs are contributing to planetary warming. In Australia we have one party willing to make the hard decision to put a price on emissions – admittedly there is compensation to householders and industry in the interim period. And there is the alternative governmetn which thinks we can simply have voodoo emissions reductions where nobody feels any pain and no structural reform occurs to the economy in order to force such. DEenialism about AGW is at the heart of the coalition policy, it is just about appeasing the dinosaurs in their party and on their front bench.
I really have to go to bed now.
Sorry Confessions @1370.
LHC is the Large Hadron Collider in Europe. Think REALLY big cyclotron. Whizzes very small particles around track a few km in diameter quite quickly and crashes them together. Much attention is paid to the bits and pieces cast off from the resulting wreck. This can be interpreted by physicists to maybe give info on the fundemental nature of the universe and they will probably come up with an answer as pithy as 42 eventually.
When it was being built there was some people who considered that it would create a black hole that we would all fall into, or it would infact disrupt spacetime and lead to the end of the universe. I think thats possibly overstating the significance of the human race in the greater scheme of things, but what do i know?
They had some problems when they first crabked it up, have done the repairs and a few mods, and i think they are going for a full power run soon.
The Kev show people were asking about:-
[ He has failed to sparkle on ABC TV’s Q&A this month, or to sparkle on his new spot on Channel Seven’s Sunrise. But tonight the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, will hope there is a lot to a name when his pre-recorded appearance on Channel Ten’s Good News Week is aired. Rudd filmed a ”political mastermind” segment for the show at the weekend in Sydney, where he emerges to answer questions as the political champion of the panellist Claire Hooper. Paul McDermott, looking nothing like a Young Liberal and only a little like Melissa Doyle, asks Rudd which prime minister uttered the line: ”Life wasn’t meant to be easy”. ”I’m pretty nervous to be here; my country beckons,” Rudd says at one point. ”Don’t stuff it up for your team,” responds the panelist Corrine Grant, a keen union supporter. Life is not easy in election years, particularly when it comes to watching game shows.
]
SMH, Diary
No 1383
[At the end of the day GHGEs are contributing to planetary warming.]
And they also happen to underpin the entire economy.
[ In Australia we have one party willing to make the hard decision to put a price on emissions]
A price on emissions does not make sense unless there are alternatives in place to switch to. You ignored the part in my earlier post where I actually addressed this and instead repeated the usual Rudd/Wong meaningless talking point.
[And there is the alternative governmetn which thinks we can simply have voodoo emissions reductions]
Direct investment in solar, tree planting etc does not constitute voodoo emissions reductions.
I think Warren Truss, of all bloody people, put it right when he said that “nobody has yet shown how trading pieces of paper will reduce sea levels”. Now paint him as ignorant as you always do, because that’s the only thing the Labor supporters know, but he is right. Rudd’s CPRS does not guarantee anything except massively increase costs for everyone.
Lacoon thanks for those graphs. I have seen similar. I also read some of the stuff on market oracle.
In fact I have been carrying for a while in my briefcase a signed form transferring my superannuation to cash management ready to email off in the ‘unlikely event’ things appear about to go pear shape. Just In case. Don’t want 30 years of Super to go down the drain.
No 1386
Another piece of puffery from Rudd.
Generic Person@1389
At least he’s not wearing a Tutu like the Shadow Treasurer 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMl3riXtu4Q
#1388
Don’t you ever tire of worrying frantically about the stock-markets and market indexes. Life is for living…….not for being consumed with worries and angst. What makes you think you will be “unhappy” if you are “poor”?
Oh and what about your good mate Colin Barnett Generic Candles ? 🙂
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid62319375001?bclid=5983829001&bctid=66650686001
No 1391
Peter Young, what type of nonsense is that?! I’ve seen everything now.
Generic Person
That is not nonsense. It is a genuine comment. It’s all a question of your values and where you place your priorities. If you choose to chase “riches” as a means of achieving happiness (I assume everyone agrees the purpose of life is to pursue happiness) but the cost of achieving those “riches” is constant worry and concern about the stock-markets, I’d suggest you need to reassess your life plans.
The “aspirations” of the everyday person is not buying a home, sending kids to private schools, having an anuual holiday, dining out weekly in swank restaurants etc as Howard would have us believe. If that ever was the case, it’s now changing.
GP @1383 spewed forth:
[And they also happen to underpin the entire economy.]
Once upon a time it could be argued that the guys that got the horse shit out of the city streets underpinned the economy. What I find amazing is that you trot out soggy rhetoric like that and keep a straight face.. well, maybe you don’t 😉
The reality is that the while we need the products of GHG emitters, they don’t need to emit (as much) carbon in doing so. Perhaps you are tragically trapped in a reality where nothing ever changes. Most of us however have a bit more common sense.
The reality is that the technology must change and that takes money. And there’s only two ways to do that. One is the government/taxpayer invests directly (and to some extent I’ve got no problems with that in some areas – provided its fair dinkum) or the government creates a market where those with good technology can come forward and profit from it.
The Labor Party is advocating a free market approach. The Liberal Party is now advocating regulation and direct government spending. Aren’t you even slightly bewildered, GP, at what happened to your Party lately? What’s even more amusing is that on the very same page you’re knocking direct government spending on a broadband network, which incidentally has the potential to save us millions of tonnes of CO2 in avoided travel.
[A price on emissions does not make sense unless there are alternatives in place to switch to.]
So long as you think that’s true, avoidance behaviour is to be expected. The facts are that technology is already well ahead of you. And I’m not just talking renewables, I’m talking lower carbon ways to make steel and concrete, and energy efficiency at every level. What is needed is however you do it, a price on carbon and an efficient method to trade between real emissions and real sequestration.
Oh and btw, planting lots of trees is a good idea, but someone’s missing a few zeros. By far and away the best way to get some balance out of basic agriculture is to take all the marginal land we currently use for sheep and re-purpose it to reforestation and bio-fuels. Can’t see that idea getting past the straw-chewers in the present cabinet 🙂
Neal’s preselection hits another snag
Belinda Neal just isn’t having the best of times in the lead up to the pre-selection ballot for Robertson to be held in early march. First, Kevin Rudd has failed to correct a myth that she defiantly snubbed him by failing to attend “anger management counselling” as ordered by him – a myth spread by News Corp newspapers. Next was the allegation of an offer of an early hospital bed for a vote in the pre-selection. Now her husband, a former NSW Health Minister, has been reported to ICAC for telephoning head of NSW Health, Debra Picone, to request an early bed.
Daily Telegraph, ICAC sent details of Della call
[In addition, he’s spending $43 billion on a national broadband network that isn’t required.]
GP, I seem to recall you supported the NBN when it was first announced. What changed your mind?
[In addition, he’s spending $43 billion on a national broadband network that isn’t required.]
Er no “he” is not. NBN Co is.
The Govt intends to be a majority shareholder in NBN Co for 10 years then sell their stake. So as usual the Libs resort to telling fibs.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/prime-minister-and-peter-garrett-didnt-see-insulation-warning/story-e6frg6n6-1225832766855
I am jumping on the Garrett have to go bandwagon.
He is looking after the insulation, the government commissioned a taxpayer funded report on the insulation, which was finished last April, Garrett being in charge did not read it until 10 days ago?
That is incompetency, lazyness, and stupidity. He would fit right in with the NSW ALP
OPT@1057:
[ For crying out loud, wouldn’t it be easier to say “Sorry, I stuffed up about Aborigines not eating carbohydrates”?
Because I did NOT say that.
I said & you cut & pasted into #707
Australian Aborginies arrived in Oz prior to the “grain” era; so consumed no grain-derived carbohydrates prior to 1788(probably the primary cause of soaring diabetes – a disease characterised by the body’s inability to metabolise carbohydrates effectively).]
When you are down a deep hole, quit digging.
You assumed that they aborigines did not consume grain derived carbohydrates.
Wrong.
But let’s go with that for the time being.
You then assumed that thus they did not have carbohydrates, because in the next breath you said:
[probably the primary cause of soaring diabetes – a disease characterised by the body’s inability to metabolise carbohydrates effectively).]
I showed, first of all, that they did have carbohydrates. Since they had carbohydrates, they were able to metabolise them.
Then I showed that in any case, they had grain derived carbohydrates.
Are you thick, or is it just your lack of knowledge of science?
You seem to think that googling is a magic bullet. It ain’t, when the person involved, you, is lacking in the required preliminary knowledge.