Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. [ That is incompetency, lazyness, and stupidity. He would fit right in with the NSW ALP
    ]

    Well it certainly ticks all the boxes.

    P.S. I don’t agree that Garrett has the qualities you suggest.

  2. OPT@1119:

    [I know exactly what “grains” are, and they are NOT ferns (nardoo) tubers (yams) tree seeds (wattle seeds) or vegetables (legumes)!

    I suppose, given Don’s silence (so far) it’s too much to expect you’ll man up and apologise for your slurs either!]

    Still digging that hole deeper, I see.

    Obviously you didn’t see this response to Dyno:

    [

    Dyno@879:

    If you google:

    Aboriginal people and their plants By Philip A. Clarke

    The first link is to a google books result with an overview of desert peoples and their plants.

    If you go to page 85, there is an excellent summary of their reliance on grains for their sustenance.

    This should take you directly there, I have put it into a tinyurl:

    http://tinyurl.com/y97dxbc

    Grains are, by definition, the seeds of grasses.

    From the link, I have to type it, you can’t copy and paste:

    The first european explorers to push into the arid zone of inland Australia remarked on the predominance of Aboriginal grass seed collecting activities.

    On 9 March 1846, explorer Majory Mitchell was at Narran Rive in central NSWm when he noted the Aboriginal harvesting of native millet grass.

    “dry heaps of this grass that had been pulled expressly for the purpos of gathering the seed lay along our path for many miles. I counted nine miles (14 Km) along the river, in which we rode through this grass only, reaching to our saddle girths, and the same grass seemed to grow back from the river, at least as far as the eye could reach, through very open forest. I had never seen such rich pasturage in any other part of NSW. Still it was what supplied the bread of the natives.”

    Native millet was widely used across the arid zone.

    Gregory remarked:

    “On Coopers Creek, the natives reap a Panicum grass (native millet) Fields of 1000 acres (405 ha) are there met with growing this cereal. The natives cut it down by means of stone knives, cutting the stalk half way”

    In Central Australia, native millet grass grows on flood plains that collect water after the northwest monsoonal rains have fallen in the summer.

    This is why OPT’s assertions are so laughable.

    I’ll add this hilarious statement to his previous assertion that coal is formed from volcanoes. It could become quite a list.]

  3. The Galaxy poll Milne references comes down to this:

    If preferences were allocated as per the last election, the Coalition would lead on 51 per cent to the ALP’s 49 per cent.

    NOW IS THAT FUNNY THEY NEVER PRINT ESSENTIAL AND MORGAN.
    anthonys on screen calculator is that up to date

  4. Ron

    Thank you for confirming that Rudd’s promise not to change health insurance rebate was a non-core promise.

    Gus

    Ron, Swan, Psephos etc are NOT arguing that the GFC is the reason for changing the rebate. They are saying that it is a bad policy, which may be true but it doesn’t change the fact that they went to the election 100% supporting the policy they now want to change.

  5. [Mr Garrett has admitted he did not see a report, warning of possible problems, from law firm Minter Ellison until earlier in February, despite it being submitted to the government in April last year.]

    It’s sounding a bit like the AWB and Downer.

  6. [Ron, Swan, Psephos etc are NOT arguing that the GFC is the reason for changing the rebate. ]

    Dio, what I actually said was: “The question is, do we insist on keeping election promises at the expense of good policy, particularly when the GFC has changed the economic landscape so radically?”

    I haven’t read back over the whole of the night’s transcript – did you attempt an answer to that question?

  7. [1399 dovif – I am jumping on the Garrett have to go bandwagon.]
    I am gobsmacked, a Liberal supporter wanting Garrett to go.

  8. GB

    can you imagine if the company you work for paid for a report on human resources/treasury and 10 months after the report was handed down …. the manager in charge said they have not read he report?

  9. The other key point about all postwar federal changes of government – 1949, 1972, 1975, 1983, 1996 and 2007 – is that there was an Opposition Leader who had a clear and consistent message which resonated with the voters, and at least the basics of a coherent policy alternative. Menzies, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Howard and Rudd had all established themselves as credible alternative PMs. Now of these things is currently the case. Abbott’s message is undisciplined and incoherent (death penalty? virginity?), his policies are literally unbelieveable (climate, economics, WorkChoices) and he lacks credibility.

  10. Tony is not trying to win Government.
    This is a hostile takeover of the Liberal Party over by the forces of deeper darkness.
    He is just going to let the electorate perform the purge.

  11. Just been looking at the Primary Votes for both parties over the last few months.

    On the current numbers 40% – 40% the Coaltion can still win the election, just need to garner some of those Greens primaries.

  12. No matter how convenient it might be for Labor supporters to use Malcolm Fraser in latter years as a stick with which to poke conservatives on immigration and human rights, news today that he’s planning on releasing a co-authored memoir including his version of the events of 1975 should come as a stark reminder of who this guy really is.

    In a story on the ABC Online just now, he says he has never read anyone else’s version of events. Apparently he wants ‘to set the record straight’, as if no one else has ever written about it in a way in which supports his side of the story, as if no one has been sufficiently critical of the Whitlam administration.

    Here is a guy so fundamentally egotistical that he has apparently never even considered any other perspective on his actions other than his own. So certain of his morals is he that there hasn’t been the vaguest suggestion that he might even give pause to reflect on any other perspective.

    At least if he’s never read anyone else’s accounts he’s unlikely to have engaged in plagiarism.

    Maintain the rage, comrades.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/22/2826326.htm?section=justin

  13. “The question is, do we insist on keeping election promises at the expense of good policy, particularly when the GFC has changed the economic landscape so radically?”

    [I haven’t read back over the whole of the night’s transcript – did you attempt an answer to that question?]

    If it’s “good policy”, you should have gone to the last election saying you would do it rather than categorically ruling it out. On the GFC side, there are literally hundreds of ways labor could save money which do not involve breaking an election promise. If they needed the money, they should have done one of those.

  14. [On the current numbers 40% – 40% the Coaltion can still win the election, just need to garner some of those Greens primaries.]

    That’s quite true. It’s also true that the Greens, the Democrats. One Nation and the Socialist Alliance “can still win the election, they just need to garner more votes.” That’s true of any party. The real question is whether the Opposition is in a political position to win, and I said above, it’s clearly not.

  15. ru

    [“We have a problem and it’s called Downer,” said Rikos Erotokritou, vice-president of Cyprus’ small but hardline European Party. “It is our belief that he should step down.]

    Will it help Mr Erotokritou if we tell him we know exactly how he feels? 😀

  16. [That’s true of any party. The real question is whether the Opposition is in a political position to win, and I said above, it’s clearly not.]

    They are getting higher primaries than Labor at the moment.

    I think the Labor hacks in here are taking re-election for granted

  17. [I think the Labor hacks in here are taking re-election for granted]
    I get the feeling this Liberal hack is clutching at straws. Read Aristotle (1412) HTT?
    Read and learn.

  18. TTH, one poll that shows the Fibs ahead on primary does not an election win make.

    Besides, aren’t you supposed to be out in the tinny protecting us against the oncoming hordes?? What are you doing on your computer?

  19. [On the current numbers 40% – 40% the Coaltion can still win the election, just need to garner some of those Greens primaries.]
    And what percentage do they need to garner HTT to have any hope whatsoever?

  20. Finns

    There is talk of Downer returning to public life here as Lord Mayor of Adelaide or in the SA Lib Party. If those bloody Cypriots get him sacked, we’re really gonna be stuck with him.

  21. The Coalition just need to garner some of the Greens primaries? The Greens? In what way exactly is the Coalition going to appeal to voters currently with the Greens?

  22. [There is talk of Downer returning to public life here as Lord Mayor of Adelaide or in the SA Lib Party. If those bloody Cypriots get him sacked, we’re really gonna be stuck with him.]
    Downer’s yours and you deserve him. You reap what you sew.

  23. [In what way exactly is the Coalition going to appeal to voters currently with the Greens?]

    Issuing “How to Vote Green” cards at the election with Liberal as #1? They’ve done it in the past.

  24. [Issuing “How to Vote Green” cards at the election with Liberal as #1? They’ve done it in the past.]
    And how successful is this?

  25. There’s a reason 80% of Green votes preference Labor over the Liberals.

    The Liberals need to attract those who voted Labor in 2007. Not those who voted Green. They are the least likely out of the lot.

  26. [They are getting higher primaries than Labor at the moment.

    I think the Labor hacks in here are taking re-election for granted]

    What a stupid comment that completely disregards our preferential system.

    I vote Green and i’ll never vote Liberal, and my vote will always go to Labor.

  27. So what has the government achieved in its term? This is by no means an extensive list just things i remember and have affected me.

    Ratifying kyoto
    The sorry
    Increasing my childcare rebate to 505 out of pocket paid quaterly
    Tax cuts as promised
    Increase in the pension rate
    x2 stimpacs which gave me $2k for kids, and $900
    Scholl building futures program which has given my school a new hall
    School pride money- my school repaint, refurb,
    Averted global economic meltdown- 100’s of thousands of jobs, economic growth- the only country in the world!!!!!! and the lowest % GDP debt of any country.
    National curriculum- my school
    maternity leave payment
    removed workchoices- saving unfair dismissals and penalty rates
    First buyers home grant doubling.

    The coalition – nothing upon nothing upon nothing!!

  28. [Officials from Mr Garrett’s department will be grilled before a Senate Committee this morning

    Not going to plan?]

    No-one is being grilled so far. Very mildly warmed perhaps.

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