Newspoll: 53-47

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. Both parties have dropped a point on the primary vote, Labor to 39 per cent and the Coalition to 40 per cent, with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are now those of a political mortal: his approval is steady on 50 per cent, but his disapproval has crept up another two points to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s dicey ratings have improved, his approval up three to 44 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 58-26 to 55-27, equalling a poll conducted during Malcolm Turnbull’s brief honeymoon as the narrowest margin since the government was elected. Further questions on other leadership options and climate change produce results consistent with what we’re seeing elsewhere. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,732 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. All this blather and name-calling about poll fluctuations that fall within the MoE is quite laughable really.

    To the coalit sympathisers I say ‘have fun hoping’ because there is little else you’ll have to keep you warm at night.

    As scrutiny is focused on TA and his reactionary policies, you will find that hot air really doesn’t count for much. And the polls will bounce around accordingly until things get serious.

    The media keeps saying that the govt doesn’t sell its policies … but that is because they aren’t spending taxpayer money on adverts that back-pat themselves for their achievements.

    To the media, as has been reported, plodding along simply doing the job is boring. Thus the govt is largely ignored and people like Barnaby get their time in the spotlight.

    But that spotlight has it’s drawbacks, especially if you simply rant with lines like: “get rid of the lot of them”. Wakey wakey Barnaby, things don’t just happen by magic. One needs a policy, and legislation and then you need to implement that policy/legislatio (if a belligerent senate allows you to) — which takes time and effort and planning.

    As events unfold over the next few months, the govt’s record will be seen. Considering its only been 2 years and the shock of the GFC, a lot has been achieved. Nobody mentions pension reform, for instance. That was overdue by years — and was accomplished sooner rather than later. The media likes to concentrate on the negative, as does the opposition — but lets balance that with what has been done.

    As to polling — well, it is not only subjective and variable, it doesn’t really predict how people will vote in the election. It just keeps people like us interested instead of thinking about doing something meaningful with our time!

  2. Could this be the pyrotechnic boatpeople bomber?

    If so… Kev has let him walk our streets and he needs to take personal responsibility for this person now being on a Permanent Residency Visa:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/15/2820053.htm?section=justin

    [An Afghan refugee has told a coronial inquest he was not trying to hide a lighter on an asylum seeker boat before it exploded in April last year.

    The boat, known as the SIEV 36, exploded near Ashmore Reef while under the control of the Navy.

    Five asylum seekers were killed and dozens more were injured.

    The Northern Territory coroner is examining whether their deaths could have been prevented.

    Arman Ali Brahimi, 48, was at the front of the asylum seeker boat about 12 minutes before it exploded.

    Brahimi today told the inquest he was looking for a bottle to urinate in and was testing a lighter when Navy officers came towards him.

    He was shown video of the officers tackling him.

    He said he panicked and only realised they wanted the lighter when they opened his hand.

    Under questioning from counsel assisting the coroner, Stephen Walsh, QC, he denied he tried to hide or throw the lighter and said he was not trying to blow up the boat.]

  3. I like the way the Australian keep talking up the Coalition. It reminds me of that Escher print where the people are walking up the stairs – they keep going up but they end up back where they started. By my OO-assisted reckoning the Coalition have been gaining on Labor ever since Rudd took over, and they’re made it all the way from 53-47 to 53-47.

  4. Confessions

    last 3 newspolls

    6/12 tone just in 56/44 – libs prim 38
    then……………..54/46 – libs prim 38
    then……………..42/48 – libs prim 41
    now ……………..53/47 – libs prim 40

    libs hav returned “home” (as Abbott is a reel consevative)
    BUT THEY NEVER LEFT , reely , polls simple showed inflatd Labor votes that were unlike any labor had ever had in 50 yrs

    all those libs around you tell em , Labor WON in 2007 with lib vote almost 42%
    so how in hell hav Libs got a chanse with almost 2% LESS prim vote

    (this is BEFORE Labor hits Tone in an electon with HIS quotes on workchoises & Govt gertting us thru GFC better than any othr country , we only country that did NOT hav a recssion Strategy is dont throw these ko’s now confessions , throw in campaign when no time for abott to spin and media will be on him (& Rudd) 24/7

  7. marky marky @ 198,

    You go on with a lot of rot mostly, but this is one occasion I agree with you. When Murdoch’s rags stoop as low as they are at present (and are likely to get worse) and print garbage such as this, then the sooner they go broke the better.

    [Abbott questions Garrett’s morals for skipping insulation meeting ]

    I think I will stop linking to and reading his miserable web sites to do him out of his 1 cent per view too.

    Rudd should shift all government advertising to the internet and stop financially supporting the agent who is doing his utmost to destroy his government.

    And the cleaners should be put through the ABC pronto. Let the RWDB’s winge all they like. Tough!!!

  8. Its been ‘the return of the messiah day’ here in the west with today’s visit by Abbott. Peter Kennedy on the ABC news was thrilled that “every seat won by the Liberals is a step in the right direction”, while poor old Labor couldn’t even find an acceptable candidate. The newspoll result and the westpoll earlier are remarkable considering the barrage of anti-labor media we are enduring.

  9. McKew will not only win her seat comfortably, she will progress to the front bench in a second Rudd Govt. In the longer term I see her succeeding Gillard as the second female PM.

    BB once again you bring calm

  10. I hope that Labor strategists are taking the current opinion polls seriously. However, if not ,there is help at hand:

    “Abbott’s workplace law gamble
    MICHELLE GRATTAN AND BEN SCHNEIDERS
    The Age, February 16, 2010
    THE Coalition has blasted workplace penalty rates and vowed to change unfair-dismissal laws, as part of a push under new leader Tony Abbott that is set to make industrial relations a big issue in this year’s election….”

    (http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbotts-workplace-law-gamble-20100215-o2wd.html)

  12. Gusface
    Posted Tuesday, February 16, 2010 at 12:07 am | Permalink

    Ron

    “Slight typo
    You put then 42-48

    should be 52-48? ”

    yes thanks Gus , my blue

  14. [McKew will not only win her seat comfortably, she will progress to the front bench in a second Rudd Govt. In the longer term I see her succeeding Gillard as the second female PM.]

    This is possible the worst case of political diatribe I have ever read.

    Maxines biggest threat in my view is her mouth. Everytime she talks it makes the hairs on the back of my neck stand up. She’s about as appealing as eating a KFC chicken bucket while watching biggest loser.

  16. Cuppa

    Notice the tag

    [
    Labor regains some lost ground in poll February 15, 2010 – 11:49PM

    AAP

    .

    © 2010 AAP]

    You cant spin LInES when its to an INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCE

    Always check the source to determine its legitimacy

  22. Marky Marky must have swallowed the absolute Crud dished out in tonight’s Four Corners which was thr biggest load of twaddle I’ve ever watched – and I have a disability and have 3 nephews and a grand niece who also have a disability.

    While I acknowledge there are problems with accomodation places – haven’t these people featured considered getting carers to assist them in their own homes ? And another thing they didn’t mention was the 12 yrears of inaction and demonising of people with disabilities by Howard and his merry band of Neo-CONS.

  29. [Ahh, Tone loves Crazy Colin’s Public Independent Schools.]

    Surely with all these Tones and Crazy Colins, I’m allowed to refer to Anna as Blight.

  31. Yep, Scorpio

    Yours….is..

    ‘Rudd should shift all government advertising to the internet and stop financially supporting the agent who is doing his utmost to destroy his government.

    And the cleaners should be put through the ABC pronto. Let the RWDB’s winge all they like. Tough!!!’

    My comment, same as I have commented on this subject, before and before.

    Kevin is far too lenient, or dare I say, foolhardy. If he was a Lib, the cleaners would have been there on Day One.

    Kev is stupid. Or worse. Vainglorious.

    Supporting his enemies.

  38. Well, if we are only part way through a 1930’s type crash there will be one silver lining. The bankruptcy of News Ltd and the death of all their scummy Australian papers. Not that anybody would care then.

  39. Christ have you ever watched Q & A or Mediawatch?

    The ABC is the most left leaning news source in the country, with the SMH coming a close second.

  40. No, Gusface.

    Kev may be a good chess player, but any player in any game gets a bit fed up with someone who takes too long to make their move.

    Keating did not waste time.

  42. Crikey

    In chess as in politics one must be aware of the paretto effect,ie 80/20 rule

    The MSM is 80 agin kev /20 for kev

    And you talk of slow moves?

    Perhaps kev is playing a long game to make sure that the 80/20 is bought back to the Vox Populi

    after all you got know when to hold em….

  44. Kev was trying to be a good cop with the ABC. Trying to change the style of Govt from the vindictive hateful Howard Govt to something fairer.

    In hindsight he should have gone into the ABC and sacked all the Howard loving managers and cronies, kicked a few in the knackers and tossed a few others out the window. And replaced them with hopefully non political types.

  45. Sure, Gusface.

    But Kev then, must be sharper than I.

    Holding Albrechtsen and Windschuttle is a very lengthy play.

    Specially if you have the cards.

    I would have shown mine much earlier.

    Particularly if I was the Bank.

  48. Yeah
    But see howie institutionalsied fibocracy

    Toexpel them root and branch would cause TOO much shite

    As with the blackberries on the farm longa time ago,slowly burn em out,the added bonus is the quislings are exposed by their words and their actions

    The howie virus will require constant and ongoing eradication.

    The plague took a while to eradicate remember

    😉

  49. TP

    I hear what you say.

    Sorry to be so new age with that comment.

    No hindsight was needed. A lull, I agree. To demonstrate the sense (or show) of fairness. Fairness which is not, I repeat, not being demonstrated by the ABC.

    But really, why would you let JA sink it into you, for years, when she could be paid by the private sector to do precisely that? And will be.

    And to allow the lamentable Windschuttle, whose most recent utterances are in complete contradiction to the Bringing them Home report.

  50. I think it is time to stop assuming all is well with China and there is nothing wrong their economy their reserves and god like govt cant deal with. It is the same sort of assumptions that bought us the GFC. It is the too big, rich, to much to grow so cant fail thinking.

    It is time to start looking closer at what is going on.

    [China economy shows strong growth in 2009 ]
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8471613.stm

    And you get a glimpse of the type of problems that result from a booming economy managed by a central govt….with this sobering article.

    [Beijing Seen Vacant for 50% as Chanos Predicts Crash ]
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6i2PSZD.Jr4

    The China govt might put a break on the banks but there are all those export dollars pouring into businesses pockets, at about the same rate as the govts reserves are growing I gather.

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