Newspoll: 53-47

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. Both parties have dropped a point on the primary vote, Labor to 39 per cent and the Coalition to 40 per cent, with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are now those of a political mortal: his approval is steady on 50 per cent, but his disapproval has crept up another two points to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s dicey ratings have improved, his approval up three to 44 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 58-26 to 55-27, equalling a poll conducted during Malcolm Turnbull’s brief honeymoon as the narrowest margin since the government was elected. Further questions on other leadership options and climate change produce results consistent with what we’re seeing elsewhere. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,732 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  2. [WHo gives a crap. THe fact she is leaving AUstralia demonstrates perfectly that she couldn’t care less about our country, she just pretended she did to win a few racist votes.]

    Maybe she got sick of newspapers publishing porno pictures and then claiming it’s her cos it looks “pretty similar”

    Imagine if the media did the same thing with say… Anna Bligh.

    I hope they get their arseholes sued off.

  5. Will the ABC swallow the OO spin or will they emphasise the slight improvement in the 2PP? I reckon they go for the drop in PPM

  8. William I think you missed this bit:

    [labor’s primary vote has dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since 2006 and the Coalition has managed to hold its primary vote at 40 per cent for a month for the first time since the 2007 election loss.]

  9. [Labor’s primary vote has dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since 2006]

    I’m sure Labor rusteds will just glaze over this. Nothing’s changed apparently!! 😀

  10. [Will the ABC swallow the OO spin or will they emphasise the slight improvement in the 2PP?]

    Did you even need to ask the question? LOL

  11. We don’t have all the figures but it looks interesting. The salient features as reported by Shanahan are that the Labor primary vote has gone down but that the Liberal primary vote has stayed the same. The implication seems to be that there has been a minor swing to the Greens. What would drive that? It is hard to make sense of it.

  12. memo bob1234: LABOR 2PV UP, D!CKHEAD. NYAH NYAH NYAH.

    Oooh that felt good, like laying a really big turd.

    And on that highly edifying note, I’ll bid you all a very good night.

  13. [William I think you missed this bit:]

    TTH, I think that you didn’t understand this bit: 53 is greater than 52, 47 is less than 48, 53 is greater than 47

  16. I think people grossly misunderstand what the media does. If there is something new, it is what gets reported. 53-47 is nothing new. A record low approval for Rudd is.

    GET THIS THROUGH YOUR HEADS, this is what the media does, no matter what the topic is. Drop the paranoia.

  17. [memo bob1234: LABOR 2PV UP, D!CKHEAD. NYAH NYAH NYAH.]

    Good! I don’t want the coalition to beat Labor at the next election!

    But it sure as hell is gratifying to see Labor’s primary at it’s lowest in half a decade!

    Ready Adam? You sure? Ok, let’s go:

    HERE COME THE GREENS!!!!!!

    😀

  20. Thanks very much Psephos and Peter Fuller for the interesting backgrounding. Sometimes it seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same. That is, apart from brief periods of respite the media is always up against Labor. It’s very concerning. I think something needs to be done about the ABC; it should be independent (not just in name), not made to run with the mindless commercial flock.

  22. I think this is a promising result, given the week that was.

    53/47 suggests:

    * despite a week where two Ministers were under attack, the Libs didn’t gain any traction;

    * people are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to the insulation issues – which further suggests that they’ll come down on Garrett’s side;

    *Abbott isn’t holding his initial impetus (and can’t, now that he’s not the only one on the airwaves);

    *I’m very tempted to draw a trend line, pointing inexorably upwards;

    *None of the above has any significance, ‘cos it’s all within MOE.

  24. [Everyone thinks you are a moron]

    Nope, only the anti-Green Labor rusteds. I’m used to it. It wouldn’t be dear old PB without it.

  25. [I’m sure Labor rusteds will just glaze over this. Nothing’s changed apparently!! ]

    You’ll be happy.

    TPP increased by 1% but Labor have hit the skids. I can only imagine that means an increase in the tree hugger voter.

  26. Oh bugger! if the election was to come out at 53/47 then the ALP would only win two more seats. 🙂

    Considering most 1st term govts go backwards at their first elections, that would be a terrible result.

    But hissy Pyne would just keep his. 🙁

  28. [*None of the above has any significance, ‘cos it’s all within MOE.]

    Is ten polls in a row of a one percentage shift in each poll not significant, and within MOE?

  29. 53-47 is a good outcome after 2 messy weeks. A kick ass PPM is always icing on the cake but elections are won with very low PPMs – didn’t Howard skate around the 50%PPM mark? and still bought home the bacon 4 times.

  33. [Nope, only the anti-Green Labor rusteds.]

    Nope, Bob. Not only them. How about telling your favorite joke again. The one that starts “what is the difference between a pizza and a … “.

  35. [Surely #12 is in need of moderation.]

    No, keep #12, I like it, it’s a rare moment where Adam was unable to keep his rage internal… it burst out and bled all over the keyboard.

  36. There is an election campaign to come. The coalition will be shown up to have no clothes. Oh, and there is still the small matter of Libemailgate.

  37. [polls always narrow at election time]

    Is that so, or is it that the polls tend to move toward the incumbent once the election is called and the campaign-proper gets underway?

  39. Given that 53-52% is within the margin of error, the real story here is unfortunately Rudd’s falling approval and PPM rate, and Abbott’s rising satisfaction rate.

    The warning bells are ringing and the government should be heeding them. Rope a dope is not going to work with Abbott because Abbott is no dope.

  41. Given that Newspoll does not do decimals , Labors primary movement may be as little as 0.1%

    So Bob 123456 does not undrstand polls , again

  42. well Bob 1234, i think your a lot nicer online entity than TTH!

    Not that thats exactly the highest compliment i can i can think of…………….

  43. [I think Labor would take 53-47 in the next election.]

    A week is a long time in politics as they say but I reckon Labor will do better than 53-47 at the election. Abbott had a long period where he could mouth off as he pleased with no fear of getting slapped down. Now that the ministers are back from leave and policy debates are ramping up the Government’s strengths will be apparent to the swingers.

  44. Gloating Greens, sorry Bob the Greens in my mind will be in the same position as they were in the lower house in 2007.
    The Senate may be a different situation however.
    I like the Greens Bob but you have got to start being realistic about them.

    I went away for a bit and noticed that Psephos suggested that 17 million was chicken feed, well that alright, tell that to the families who have disabled children who need constant care.

  47. [Given that 53-52% is within the margin of error, the real story here is unfortunately Rudd’s falling approval and PPM rate, and Abbott’s rising satisfaction rate. ]

    In addition to the falling Labor primary vote and rising Lib primary vote.

  48. [I like the Greens Bob but you have got to start being realistic about them. ]

    When was I not being realistic? I’m not expecting them to win lower house seats. Melbourne is a chance though.

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