Newspoll: 53-47

The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. Both parties have dropped a point on the primary vote, Labor to 39 per cent and the Coalition to 40 per cent, with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are now those of a political mortal: his approval is steady on 50 per cent, but his disapproval has crept up another two points to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s dicey ratings have improved, his approval up three to 44 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 58-26 to 55-27, equalling a poll conducted during Malcolm Turnbull’s brief honeymoon as the narrowest margin since the government was elected. Further questions on other leadership options and climate change produce results consistent with what we’re seeing elsewhere. Full tables here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,732 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47”

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  1. I thought this site was moderated by someone who works at university and is very well educated, with the comments that occur on this site on a regular basis i would have thought otherwise.

  2. [Abbott had a long period where he could mouth off as he pleased with no fear of getting slapped down]

    He did … and still does. Talk about an extended media honeymoon! Sooner or later the time will come when the media HAVE to start asking him the hard questions:

    1) What parts of SerfChoices would you bring back?
    2) How can the ETS be a big LABOR tax when it was first Coalition policy?
    3) Do you promise never ever to bring in an ETS yourself?
    4) What are your intentions regarding privatisation of Australia Post and the ABC?
    5) … Will virginity be made compulsory for all brides-to-be?

  4. I think a small 2PP move to Labor once the real business of parliament has started, in the midst of get-Garrett is good indeed. I do think however that Abbott has gone better than expected. He is an opportunist and there appears nothing that he wont stoop to. I dont think Labor is in trouble, but youd want the next few movements to go their way

  6. By the way, I don’t know why some are saying the coalition primary vote went up…

    [Coalition has managed to hold its primary vote at 40 per cent for a month for the first time since the 2007 election loss.]

    The coalition got 41% (37% + 4% Nat) in the last poll.

  7. [My thoughts exactly. Abbott is far from stupid. His policies may be stupid, but he isn’t.]

    Those are what will bring him down as long as it is the policies that are attacked.

  8. Bob the Greens need to have a look at themselves, they did poorly in Altona and if they want to be a force they must start convincing working class people of
    their credentials and at present i do not see it happening. The Greens unless climate change starts having a significant influence in ten years will be still in the same position as they are now unless they start appealing to other pockets of the population.

  9. confessions
    Posted Monday, February 15, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    “In addition to the falling Labor primary vote and rising Lib primary vote.”

    Libs vote now is 40%

    Libs vote 2007 almost 42%

    all thats hapened is Abbott hasd got back reel Lib voters that were in theory ‘lost’ under Nelson/turnbull but in end would hav voted Lib anyway

    so poll of libs at 40% is bad for Libs , and a CERTAIN defeat vs 2007

  14. And at risk of feeding the trolls, this rusted-on acknowledges that Abbott has achieved a poll shift, and the heights of 56-59 2PP may be a thing of the past. Labor shouldnt be spooked but they shouldnt be in denial either

  16. [The coalition got 41% (37% + 4% Nat) in the last poll.]

    I think they meant to say the first time they have stayed ABOVE 40% for a month.

    Of course you would need to say above 39.999% which doesn’t sound quite as catchy.

  18. [Umm, am I missing something or has my internet been filtered? I see nothing in the Aus article that says “53-47?]

    Hahahahaha of course not! That would be good news for the government 🙂

  20. The 52-48 results last year were justifiably dismissed as rogue polls or, at the very least, outliers.

    This 53-47 does something additional. It adds context to the last Newspoll (52-48)

  21. [Libs vote now is 40%

    Libs vote 2007 almost 42%

    all thats hapened is Abbott hasd got back reel Lib voters that were in theory ‘lost’ under Nelson/turnbull but in end would hav voted Lib anyway

    so poll of libs at 40% is bad for Libs]

    Good point.

  23. [I don’t think the Lib primary vote rose]

    True, my mistake – sorry.

    I’m getting very nervous now. The Abbott Ascension was meant to make it harder for the Libs to win – what on earth is happening??!!

  24. [QandA tonight. Tanner solid, thoughtful. Joyce erratic, shallow.]

    Tanner Smug.

    Joyce, down to Earth and Popular.

    I’d know who i’d run in a Queensland seat.

  26. QandA tonight. Tanner solid, thoughtful. Joyce erratic, shallow.

    I actually thought Tanner did rather poorly and that Joyce came off looking better, Tanner should have done more to attack the assertion that Joyce and Abbott are “plain speaking” and point out their flip flops and spin and show they are just like any other politician.

    Instead he just looked full of faux outrage, even grumpy at times, while Joyce got some nifty soundbites off, which seems to be where he excels the most. You can do better than that Lindsay.

  28. [I’m getting very nervous now. The Abbott Ascension was meant to make it harder for the Libs to win – what on earth is happening??!!]

    Nothing yet to say he is making it easier for them to win either.

  29. [Bob the Greens need to have a look at themselves, they did poorly in Altona]

    From 8% to 10%, the Greens increased their vote by 25%.

    The Greens are not like other parties. They don’t have an astronomical rise and a blazing crash back down. As observed at each federal election, their vote has increased bit by bit, now at 9% in 2007, and near-certain to hold the balance of power after the next election.

  30. From William’s post, up top:

    The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. I gather both parties have dropped a point on the primary vote, Labor to 39 per cent and the Coalition to 40 per cent.

  35. BK@78

    TTH

    Exhume Joh perhaps?

    If they can reanimate a dead Richard Burton in War Of The Worlds – the Arena Spectacular – I’m sure the Nats can do the same with Joh (and they can hire Gerry Connolly to voice him), or computer gnerate orignal Joh speech. 🙂

  37. [I’m getting very nervous now. The Abbott Ascension was meant to make it harder for the Libs to win – what on earth is happening??!!]

    Rudd started listening to the Latte Sipper set.

    I honestly believe a majority of Australians are conservative, down to earth and unidealistic. The ETS will be a pain in the arse for Rudd because it’s turned into a massive latte leftie project and the public are well and truly disinterested now.

  38. Any idiot who wants to claim that the MSM is not biased please explain the commentary about the latest polls being Rudd on the decline/in troubled/rattled etc compared to the favourable coverage and spin Howard got even when he was hopelessly behind

  40. Abbott has been playing to the non thinkers who just want to hear a quick fix catchphrase. If it sounds good they don’t care about details

    In the last few weeks Tone’s had big headline news of his “policies” such as CC, Hospitals, Bring back Howards AS policies to name a few

    Come the election the heat will be on him to ‘show us the money’ and a few details won’t go astray.
    When treasury gets their hands on his costings it will be fun 😉

  41. You must have watched the OO version

    Perhaps, though I should say I think Joyce came off looking better in general to the audience, to me he continued to look like the oaf that he is and Tanner as the excellent finance minister that he is.

    I also think Tanner should have made the point that a flat tax is not only unfair but is in fact a regressive tax.

  42. [Joyce, down to Earth and Popular.]

    You can be in the mud and still “down-to-earth”. And it’s not difficult to be “Popular” when the audience is stacked your way.

  44. Mmm yes that Angela Merkel really is a latte leftie, as is Schwartznegger, and Sarkosy of course. Yes, a socialist conspiracy to take over the world

  45. Ahh Leigh tells it like it is and leads with the 2PP. Some balance from one ABC program at least.

    Then they go to a get Garrett piece…

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