The Australian reports the latest fortnightly Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last time. Both parties have dropped a point on the primary vote, Labor to 39 per cent and the Coalition to 40 per cent, with the Greens steady on 12 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are now those of a political mortal: his approval is steady on 50 per cent, but his disapproval has crept up another two points to 40 per cent. Tony Abbott’s dicey ratings have improved, his approval up three to 44 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 58-26 to 55-27, equalling a poll conducted during Malcolm Turnbull’s brief honeymoon as the narrowest margin since the government was elected. Further questions on other leadership options and climate change produce results consistent with what we’re seeing elsewhere. Full tables here.
raham Morris was on Sky News tonight suggesting that a number of Labor MPs would be ‘one termers’, ie Maxine McKew.
I was always convinced McKew would only be a one term politician unless she was given a ministry or put in a position with lots of media attention. That hasn’t happened, so I think she is toast, to Labor’s loss.
[You mean like the Essential Research Poll?]
Ahh I forgot the Labor rulebook says to revert back to the poll that gives Labor the best 2PP, even if it’s a poll that has an online database of 100,000 it polls from. Silly me.
If Maxine is going anywhere it’s to the front bench.
I will be voting Green i think….
Confessions
ignore johny come lately bob 123456
from about 2nd mth after Rudd was elected , i and a few othrs said 58/42 and 59/41 polls were soft liberal voters unhappy with ‘left liberal’ Nelson (vs consevative howard) , and there poll answers reflectd that
Then Libs changed to ‘left lib’ Turnbull so again consevativ Lib base STILL did not swing behind Libs in polls
Now that libs hav thereconservative leader those libs that may hav indicated suport for ‘abor (but never would hav actauly voted that way) now proud to be identified as a lib in polls
now if you trace movements in Lib primary vote they follow this patern , now Coaliton at 40% up from 37/38% (BUT still down on almost 42% primary at 2007 electon
other impact on labor vote has been Greens in 18-34 group , espec since ETS was rejected & Copenhaggen failure which reduces Labors 2 PPT given some grens pref libs These ar recoverable if ETS is pased or a deel made or in an electon when all CC polisysd on table plus econamy is issue vs Abbott’s work choise agenda’s being highlites
I tell you how good Newspoll was for the government. TTH disappeared quickly and bobs still here. A sure sign if ever there was one.
I am not a rusted laborite Bob, i actually think the Greens should have a split ticket at the State and Federal Elections.
It would make Labor look closer at the Greens instead of constantly ignoring them.
[It would make Labor look closer at the Greens instead of constantly ignoring them.]
Won’t happen. Labor will always ignore any party that isn’t the coalition. Just look at the Democrats.
[I will be voting Green i think….]
And preferencing the Coaltion?
[graham “we can win johnny” morris
Give me a break]
So it’s a crapshoot? Fine with me. And I need all the reassuring I can get! 🙂
[ I will be voting Green i think….
And preferencing the Coaltion?]
Ahh, the old Howard “you’re either with us or against us” tactic. Lovely.
VP
I think labor should poll its marginals to get feedback
say 400 odd per seat
random generation
focus on swing states (F off anyone hwo argues this a yanky term-red herring free zone)
do NSW QLD WA
Oh wait that already happened
Does rudd look anxious?
[Ahh I forgot the Labor rulebook says to revert back to the poll that gives Labor the best 2PP, even if it’s a poll that has an online database of 100,000 it polls from.]
LOL. This coming from the person who only takes notice of one poll, the one that is worse for Labor.
So the Greens will continue to be used by Labor Bob, what of all the marginal eastern subs seats gained by Labor because of Green preferences.
If the Greens continue to be weak dills they will get nowhere.
[Ahh, the old Howard “you’re either with us or against us” tactic. Lovely.]
“A pizza doesn’t scream when you put it in the oven”. Lovely.
From essential research
58% in favor of government health care takeover
10% opposed.
The contrast to the US is staggering.
Howard and now Abbott would not last two seconds with the media if they were ALP.
They contradict themselves often, change their positions and beliefs regularly, say one thing but intend or do another.
If Rudd was like Howard or Abbott the right wing media would call him a dishonest, shallow flip-flopper.
Neither Howard nor Abbott are clever with words. The myth is Howard was tricky and clever, but that was ONLY because the media never called him on it, never made him responsible for his words never took him for task as they do Labor politicians.
It is the single standard of the right wing media which is founded on – always help the Liberal Party be the government.
The same goes with the bigotry, xenophobia and racism of the Howard government through dog-whistling. It was never clever or smart of Howard and his cronies, it was only successful because the media wanted him to be successful so supported and enhanced the dog-whistling for them. If it were Labor dog whistling like the Howard Govt did the media would have ripped him to shreds.
The media took a second rate politician and failed Treasurer and lifted him on their shoulders and gave him mythological abilities.
Actually i am a Labor member, but i will be voting Green have done so since Latham who i liked.
[Sorry Ron, still can’t understand you.]
He makes more sense than a rusted on greenlixta who gets all orgasmic about tony abbot gaining 1% PPM I can tell you
[Actually i am a Labor member, but i will be voting Green have done so since Latham who i liked.]
It was a serious question.
[A pizza doesn’t scream when you put it in the oven”. Lovely.]
Scarps
They say Hess was kept alive so daily the guards could e see what a complete piece of shite he was.
I dont support banning but can see how others can.
Howard and now Abbott would not last two seconds with the media if they were ALP.
That one always gets me. When Labor pollies speak in pollywaffle it is spin, when Coalition MP’s do it, it is “straight talking”
Frank Kelly was on the money in her piece on the Drum, Abbott really is just another politician, this journalistic meme about him being a “straight talker” is baseless.
[I dont support banning but can see how others can.]
Gus, I don’t support banning either but I don’t forget.
And i was being serious. Now where are all the Latham haters…
[LOL. This coming from the person who only takes notice of one poll, the one that is worse for Labor.]
I make no apologies for being a realist and respecting Newspoll rather than go for a fly with the fairies and believe in Morgan or ER.
Ron @ 155: Liberals reclaiming their base under Abbott doesn’t explain the sharp movement in pirmary vote towards them. Libs I know (and I’m surrounded by them where I live) are horrified at the prospect of Abbott and are looking to vote for something else (mostly independant) at the next election.
I really hope the government are onto this because I don’t accept the laissez faire attitude of some that things will be better as we near the election: what if they aren’t?
[If the Greens continue to be weak dills they will get nowhere.]
All I want is for them to get the sole balance of power in the Senate at the next election, which they are almost certain to do.
🙂
The good thing about this poll is that it changes the narrative. A bad week for the government and they improve in a poll?
Another staggering contrast to the US, people 55 and over support a government takeover of healthcare by 79%
Maybe it’s because we don’t have militant theology and Fox news rotting our brains over here.
Abbott is anything but a straight talker, he is as crooked a talker as they come because you can never be sure what he says today will be what he says tomorrow.
But the RWmedia – Abbott could suggest genocide and they would support him and blame Rudd for being weak on murder.
bob1234 – the Libs will also have the balance of power. Don’t get too excited.
[He makes more sense than a rusted on greenlixta who gets all orgasmic about tony abbot gaining 1% PPM I can tell you]
I’m orgasmic about the expected Green gain in this poll, as has been the pattern throughout this term and previous terms. I’m orgasmic that once again I have been proven right and the Labor rusteds have been proven wrong. They are always wrong.
It’s lovely seeing the intense bile and vitriol toward me in this particular thread. I must be doing something right. It’s always a risky exercise giving logic and facts to Labor rusteds, they are so defensive and insecure, and tend to lash out like this when they’re backed in to a corner by logic and facts.
Goodnight! 😀
The good thing about this poll is that it changes the narrative. A bad week for the government and they improve in a poll
Changes the narrative? have you not seen the Australian’s headline? “Rudd hits a new low: Newspoll”
Although I agree, it will be some comfort to the government who might have been fearing a much worse result, and coupled with essential research they might regain some confidence.
[And i was being serious. Now where are all the Latham haters…]
Marky, I wasn’t a Latham hater either but I was out of the country for six months leading up to and during that election. At that time I wasn’t aware of blogs like PB which are great for getting a real feel for what is going on (as long as there are representatives of the different viewpoints blogging).
Abbott is anything but a straight talker, he is as crooked a talker as they come because you can never be sure what he says today will be what he says tomorrow.
Must agree, Abbott has never given a straight word on any policy issue in his entire career. He might say things like “bullshit” and “shit eating grin”, but when it comes to talking about policy, he can spin it with the best of them.
Bob if you actually think that Labor will be mad at the Greens for having a split ticket then think again…
Think about it who will Labor preference Family First this will split the Labor vote to bits and its members will go nuts… and just to think of the Left…
The Greens should think seriously about doing it. You get on here and go berserk about i digit point of an increase but what of the big picture?
And to suggest Greens will be everywhere by 2030 well they will only be more Greens unless they start having some tactics of their own.
Who is say Labor and the Libs gang up on the Greens and alter the voting system like Tassie BOB…To favour themselves…
Think about it.
Truthy
[Rudd started listening to the Latte Sipper set.]
I’m probably the closest thing PB has to the “Latte Sipper” set (although I don’t drink coffee and always preferred a cappuchino at 10 and then espressos after that when I did).
I can assure you that Rudd sure as hell isn’t listening to me.
He’d be way behind in the polls if he was.
Scarps
I liked latham altho a constant point of friction with my bro is latham,he said from the get go that matk was too macho.I think that what undid mark was his inability to temper his passion
tho mad mark V mad monk would make one hell of a cagematch
😉
[It’s lovely seeing the intense bile and vitriol toward me in this particular thread. I must be doing something right. It’s always a risky exercise giving logic and facts to Labor rusteds, they are so defensive and insecure, and tend to lash out like this when they’re backed in to a corner by logic and facts.]
Or just maybe they are just sick and tired of constantly reading a big pile of shit!!!
[Who is say Labor and the Libs gang up on the Greens and alter the voting system like Tassie BOB…To favour themselves…]
Are you daft? In Tas, they shrunk the size of the house to get less Greens in as they have a multimember system. In federal politics, it’s single member. And you cannot shrink the numbers in the Senate unless you shrink the size of the House, which won’t happen. Learn some history please.
[And to suggest Greens will be everywhere by 2030]
What? Who? Where? I never said anything of the sort.
NOW i’m off to bed.
People should read Mark Lathams book before making comments about him. One of the best political books i have ever read superb.
Good heavens Bob! Whatever gave you the thought I was talking about you?
I think Abbott would be worse than Howard. Howard at least had a focus of where he wanted to go, a one party democracy.
Abbott I think would just bounce around lead but an inner malice against anything that he doesn’t prefer. His would be a vicious state. You only need to read the articles that he has written in the past to see that undercurrent. Maybe it is the nature of the puritanical Christian types to attack anything that even remotely threatens their world or the desire to force their vision of the world onto others.
So, ALP up one to 53-47.
Naturally, Shanahan runs with “Rudd hits a new low”.
TP
Sadly,like most of the fibocracy,Tone is utterly devoid of vision but full of devotion
Mammon is the god they worship
Thinking of State Politics in Victoria on that Bob but who is say both major parties get together on the proportional system Bob?
I like your style Bob but to have high expectations and then to see them dissappear is so dissappointing.
[tho mad mark V mad monk would make one hell of a cagematch]
Gus, agreed. Neither are idiots, both in their own strange ways have charm, but from my viewpoint, Latham was a highway of ideas whereas Abbott is a narrow laneway.
The Australian will continue with its anti labor rhetoric. It is time the Unions told its members to stop buying Murdoch newspapers.
We cannot continue to support someone who hates unions and hates workers.
Youse are a bunch of Nervous Nellies.
If ever there was a bootstrapper being run, it’s this “Libs On Comeback Trail” schtik. They’re trying, in true bootstrapper tradition, to talk up a very minor blip in the polls over the Silly Season into a Lazarus-like election miracle.
Bananaby the Bumpkin and his “common sense” economics, Abbott and his “Straight Talk Express” politics are no match for a government that has saved the country from the worst of the GFC. End of story right there.
The likes of Shanahan and Morris are experts at interpreting the tea leaves in the most favourable way possible for their side of politics. People like them have been spruiking Liberalism Happy Talk for decades, lately (the last 30 or so years) with mixed success.
They’re trying to create an “inevitability” feeling, a bandwagon effect. They can’t keep it up for long before the public grows tired of it. This is the best, or close to the best, you’re going to see from Abbott. Even simple curiosity in the public’s minds is enough to have the Rudd government re-elected. Apart from performance.
For the Coalition’s side, throw in a little spice – a hospitals brainfart here, a CO2 reduction flashbulb there – and your average Joe in La-La Land responds a little to the carnival atmosphere.
Abbott has never been able to sustain anything in his life. He even ran out on his pregnant girlfriend at 7 months. He seems incapable of saying the same thing to two audiences in a row. Joyce is a buffoon, just another Queensland hillbilly down to have some fun with us Southerners. First we had Joh For PM, then Pauline Hanson. Labor has seen them all off, and Bananaby will share the same fate.
Christ! Two bloody Newspolls (so far away from the other polls it’s not funny, by the way) and some of you here are making with the wailing and gnashing of teeth. Doom! Maxine’s gonna lose her seat! Gloom! Kevin is too prolix! Calamity! The media still rule! Dennis Shanahan has spoken!
Gimme a break fellas.
The Highway to Hell V The Backalley of Broken Dreams.
Where’s Jimmy Sharman when you need him
😉