Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan seems to be back to reporting weekly face-to-face polling, at least for the time being: the latest survey of 1014 respondents has Labor down 1.5 per cent to 45 per cent and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 36.5 per cent, changing the two-party vote from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent, Family First two to 3 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• Previously believed bound for marginal Macarthur, Labor MP Chris Hayes has now been offered safe Fowler to compensate for Reid MP Laurie Ferguson’s accommodation in his existing seat of Werriwa. This is despite the fact that Ferguson wanted Fowler while Hayes preferred to remain in Werriwa, which was impossible because Fowler’s Right-controlled branches did not want Ferguson on their turf. The arrangement is a win for Julia Gillard and the “soft Left” over Anthony Albanese and the “hard Left”, which wanted Werriwa to go to Damien Ogden of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. However, the drama may not be over yet: also out in the cold is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrial and Plumbing Union, whom the Right still wishes to accommodate. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk he might replace Roger Price in Chifley. Macarthur presumably available again to its candidate from 2007, Nick Bleasdale.

• Jennie George has announced she will retire at the next election, opening up a preselection contest in her seat of Throsby. A factional deal in place since 1997 has given Throsby to the hard Left and Fowler to the Right; Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports the Left has everything in place to deliver the seat to Stephen Jones of the Community and Public Sector Union. The Mercury’s Brett Cox reports “no love lost between factions over the issue, with the Left accusing the Right of a behind the scenes campaign to oust Ms George and discredit Mr Jones’ links to the region”. Local Australian Workers Union branch secretary Andy Gillespie has labelled the Right dissidents “hypocrites”, as they had acquiesced in the imposition Lylea McMahon in the state seat of Shellharbour.

• The Liberal preselection for Bennelong looms as a contest between former tennis star John Alexander and Mark Chan, a 25-year-old manager for GE Capital whose Chinese background is being sold as an asset in the seat. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the party has brought the preselection process forward so it can capitalise on Alexander’s exposure over summer as a tennis commentator. This would seem to suggest he is considered the front-runner.

• Saffron Howden of the Northern Star reports Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock is the “likely Nationals candidate” for Richmond. Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout is considered a likely Liberal candidate.

• After a state and federal political career stretching back to 1965, Tasmanian Liberal MP Michael Hodgman has announced he will not contest the March state election due to ill health. Despite being 71 and suffering emphysema, Hodgman had remained on the six-person Liberal line-up for Denison when it was finalised last month. The party will now have to find a replacement candidate, and enter the election without a sitting member in the division. Among those who missed out at preselection was Hobart alderman and regular independent candidate Marti Zucco.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,146 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [You fail to understand the significance of someone denying something they were never accused of. Why would someone deny something they had never been accused of? Think about it]

    They’re Donald Rumsfield?

  2. If the CC debate has achieved one thing, one thing only, then it has been worthwhile. This is that human cannot go on consuming the way it has been.

    And the consumption must be equitable, like 5% of world population (USA) consumes 25% of the world resources, that is not equitable.

  4. Gusface@1988:

    [Dio
    Any text msg is stored fro a minimum 7 days on the carriers mainframe.]

    Yikes! That’s something I hadn’t considered.

    For the record, as most here know, emails are a whole different ballgame, as we discovered with the Grech affair. Any email you write is likely to be there forever, to bite you on the bum when you least expect it.

    But I hadn’t realised that SMS messages were stored for any length of time on the service provider, thanks for that important info.

  5. TP,

    Bonking causes carbon dioxide which causes global warming which causes ice sheets to collapse.

    Diogs has been entirely focussed on stopping AGW with his unrelenting focus on Rann’s alleged peccadillos.

  7. Ummm, Poll bludgers, please pay attention. The artichoking Antartica is starting to go..melt a lot faster than anyone thought it would…it wasn’t supposed to happen until after the Greenland ice sheet and the Arctic. I’m thinking is it time to start thinking extraterrestrial.

  9. [You fail to understand the significance of someone denying something they were never accused of. Why would someone deny something they had never been accused of? Think about it.]

    Dio, I don’t know what you are on about, but I think you are losing it…

  11. [Dio, I don’t know what you are on about, but I think you are losing it…]
    I don’t know if he ever had it.

    I don’t understand why he reverts to innuendo instead of just explaining what he is thinking.

  12. [Diogs has been entirely focussed on stopping AGW with his unrelenting focus on Rann’s alleged peccadillos.]

    GG, you have to forgive Diog, plastic surgery is not exactly very sexy.

  14. SMS is not PtP protocol
    it requires retransmission (up to 10+ times) to reach its destination.

    The advent of terrabyte storage has changed the nature of data storage, plus the fact that cloud computing has utilised DB storage with a vengeance.

    The certainty that Rann would have his comms monitored would obviate the need to find ‘evidence’

    Rann would know what he said and what he didnt

  16. [Interesting dynamic in the Senate: in QT shoul not the majority party in the Senate be questionned?]
    No. The executive is questioned. The executive is currently all the Labor Senators that sit in the front row (and Evans at the table).

  18. [I don’t know if he ever had it]

    Quite possibly. On a day where he manages to be rIGHt twice, he still manages to throw in plenty of wRONgs.

  19. [I am also fully aware that he denied two specific scenarios which he had never been mentioned.]
    What are the “two specific scenarios” Dio?

  20. SO and dario

    It’s very simple.

    Rann created straw men during his presser. The thrust of his defence was to ridicule things he was never accused of.

    Do you understand now?

  22. [no federal law
    It used to be 24hrs but i think howie slipped it thru with his security laws?]

    From memory it was 7 years, and could only be accessed by police using a court order.

  23. [Rann created straw men during his presser. The thrust of his defence was to ridicule things he was never accused of.]

    Now I think you’re making shit up

  24. Does anyone honestly believe that such a high profile public figure like Rann would do it on or near a golf course?

    If you have done it in public yourself in similar situations, there is no way 😈

  25. [Does anyone honestly believe that such a high profile public figure like Rann would do it on or near a golf course?

    If you have done it in public yourself in similar situations, there is no way]

    Agree totally… and yes I have 😉

  26. [What are the “two specific scenarios” Dio?]
    Chantelois said on Sunday Night that she had sex with Rann in his office.

    Today Rann used the term “on the floor of my office” and said it was during a parliamentary sitting week.

    Chantelois said on Sunday Night that she had sex with Rann in a car at the North Adelaide golf course.

    Today Rann used the term “on a golf course”, which some here seem to think is DIFFERENT to in a car AT the North Adelaide golf course.

    My point is that these are DETAILS, Rann asserted that he hasn’t had sex with her AT ALL, in other words he rejected the accusations in toto, so whether or not he gave a perfect recital of the details of the accusations is irrelevant.

  27. If you make or receive calls on you mobile telephone the numbers will be there until you delete them. That requires the push of several buttons and, unless you are stupid and have decreed otherwise, requires you to confirm that you want them to be deleted.

  28. Without breaking ant laws,I can tell you also that dependent on the carrier the messages can be stored indefinitely.

    Carrier software incorporates keyword searches and fuzzy logic to enable searches across nor just the current DB but across stored data.

    that bit of NCIS is at least true

  29. [Rann created straw men during his presser. The thrust of his defence was to ridicule things he was never accused of.]
    Of course he ridiculed the accusations, because he rejected them COMPLETELY, he said he never had sex with her, are you that surprised his recollection of the specific scenarios of where and when and how the sex occurred wasn’t perfectly accurate when he says it NONE of it EVER happened?
    [Do you understand now?]
    Do you understand how you are wrong now?

  32. [From memory it was 7 years]

    This applied to where a “recording” was part of an investigation or was monitored.

    Big Brother/1984/Brave New World eat your heart out.

  33. [My point is that these are DETAILS, Rann asserted that he hasn’t had sex with her AT ALL, in other words he rejected the accusations in toto, so whether or not he gave a perfect recital of the details of the accusations is irrelevant.]
    I agree. He’s not just saying that under those circumstances he didn’t have sex with her. He’s saying under ANY circumstance he didn’t have sex with her.

  34. I give up. You’d rather argue about Diog and whether or not he was wRONg about something, anything, everything. Some stupid red herring garbage about Rann.
    If Antartica is melting as well as the Arctic, Greenland and the Himalayas, you can kiss your a##e goodbye.

  36. Qute right ShowsOn,

    But it does mean that the majority in the Senate is n no way accountable other than through their votes on bills. It does give some sort of credence to Paul’ Keating’s assessment of that institution.

  37. [If Antartica is melting as well as the Arctic, Greenland and the Himalayas, you can kiss your a##e goodbye.]

    There are few of us that dispute those things, so there is less to argue about

  45. Dario

    Wrong again, hey. Thanks to SO for saving me the time of looking that up.

    SO

    You have just shown that Rann ridiculed accusations that were never made. That was my point.

  48. Diogs, people (yes even politicians) have had affairs. People are having affairs. People WILL always have affairs.

    For god sakes go and do everyone a favour and have one yourself so you can get it out of your system 😆

  50. [You have just shown that Rann ridiculed accusations that were never made. That was my point]

    Er, no. You were wRONg. Admit it fully and move on.

Comments are closed.

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