Saulwick: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria

Bit of a blast from the past here: The Sunday Age has commissioned “Irving Saulwick and Denis Muller” to conduct a 1000-sample survey on Victorian state voting intention. Saulwick was a feature of the Australian polling landscape in the 1980s, but as Antony Green recently noted on this site, the ALP succeeded in damaging its reputation in the early 1990s and Saulwick himself moved on to new endeavours. Labor has nothing to complain about on this occasion: consistent with Newspoll, the poll shows the Coalition headed for a third successive drubbing. Labor leads 50 per cent to 36 per cent (Liberal 32 per cent, Nationals 4 per cent) on the primary vote and 58-42 on two-party preferred, while John Brumby leads Ted Baillieu 56 per cent to 25 per cent as preferred premier. Lots of further detail in the accompanying report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Saulwick: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. Centaur
    not on these figures.
    About 300 people from country Vic were polled. 50% gave their primary to the Coalition, which equals 150 people.
    Of the 1000 polled, 360 gave the Coalition their primary vote. So if we take the 150 out of this, and make the poll out of 700, we get 210 people giving the Libs their primary vote, for a city based primary of 30%. If the Libs pick up 6% on TPP, that gives us a 2PP split of Libs 36, Labor 64 in the city and outer suburbs.

  2. centaur
    I’m not predicting a thing, I’m saying ‘on these figures’.
    You haven’t produced any figures which suggest that your scenario of losing labor seats is at all likely.
    I would be extremely surprised if things pan out as the figures in my earlier post suggest, but I thought their implications were interesting (just as it’s interesting that we have the figure for country Liberal voting released but not the same figures for the city).

  3. I’m amazed that so many don’t see the writing on the wall. Labor is about to smash the Libs to smithereens.

    All these pseudo issues like dredging the bay, desal plants and the north east pipeline are actually supported by most Vicroians. Transport has been an issue but the more trains, change of operator and the introduction of the ring road bus services have all been implemented.

    I think a few of the critics need to lift their eyes and see that Brumby and Co are delivering for Victoria.

  4. The situation in Victoria is interesting for a number of reasons.

    This is a long-term government which has never looked stronger. The recent history of Victoria leads me to assume that the state has gone ‘off sequence’ and that it will be difficult for liberals to do well here either at federal or state levels. This is not a battleground state. Ted has copped criticism for being too ‘left’ but if they replaced him with any kind of RWDB then they will have even less chance.

    The interesting issue this raises is concerned with the inevitable corruption which accompanies any state dominated by one party. As someone mentioned earlier, the A.L.P gave up control of the upper house in favor of the vision of a ‘house of review’ years ago. If they regain control of the upper house again there may be some pressure to make sure they can manage growth in a more direct and authoritarian manner. Melbourne needs an enormous amount of new infrastructure to cope with a population boom that will see it the biggest city in Australia sooner than many recognize.

  5. Any regaining of control of the upper house by the ALP would be a godsend … for the Greens. The ALP would build new road projects in and around the inner city, and the Greens would win Northcote, Brunswick, Melbourne & Richmond in 2014.

    Then it would be just about time to get out of Dodge.

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