Morgan: 56.5-43.5

Morgan seems to be back to reporting weekly face-to-face polling, at least for the time being: the latest survey of 1014 respondents has Labor down 1.5 per cent to 45 per cent and the Coalition down 2 per cent to 36.5 per cent, changing the two-party vote from 56-44 to 56.5-43.5. The Greens are up a point to 9 per cent, Family First two to 3 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• Previously believed bound for marginal Macarthur, Labor MP Chris Hayes has now been offered safe Fowler to compensate for Reid MP Laurie Ferguson’s accommodation in his existing seat of Werriwa. This is despite the fact that Ferguson wanted Fowler while Hayes preferred to remain in Werriwa, which was impossible because Fowler’s Right-controlled branches did not want Ferguson on their turf. The arrangement is a win for Julia Gillard and the “soft Left” over Anthony Albanese and the “hard Left”, which wanted Werriwa to go to Damien Ogden of the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. However, the drama may not be over yet: also out in the cold is Ed Husic of the Communications Electrial and Plumbing Union, whom the Right still wishes to accommodate. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports talk he might replace Roger Price in Chifley. Macarthur presumably available again to its candidate from 2007, Nick Bleasdale.

• Jennie George has announced she will retire at the next election, opening up a preselection contest in her seat of Throsby. A factional deal in place since 1997 has given Throsby to the hard Left and Fowler to the Right; Alex Arnold of the Illawarra Mercury reports the Left has everything in place to deliver the seat to Stephen Jones of the Community and Public Sector Union. The Mercury’s Brett Cox reports “no love lost between factions over the issue, with the Left accusing the Right of a behind the scenes campaign to oust Ms George and discredit Mr Jones’ links to the region”. Local Australian Workers Union branch secretary Andy Gillespie has labelled the Right dissidents “hypocrites”, as they had acquiesced in the imposition Lylea McMahon in the state seat of Shellharbour.

• The Liberal preselection for Bennelong looms as a contest between former tennis star John Alexander and Mark Chan, a 25-year-old manager for GE Capital whose Chinese background is being sold as an asset in the seat. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the party has brought the preselection process forward so it can capitalise on Alexander’s exposure over summer as a tennis commentator. This would seem to suggest he is considered the front-runner.

• Saffron Howden of the Northern Star reports Pottsville pharmacist Tania Murdock is the “likely Nationals candidate” for Richmond. Tweed councillor Joan van Lieshout is considered a likely Liberal candidate.

• After a state and federal political career stretching back to 1965, Tasmanian Liberal MP Michael Hodgman has announced he will not contest the March state election due to ill health. Despite being 71 and suffering emphysema, Hodgman had remained on the six-person Liberal line-up for Denison when it was finalised last month. The party will now have to find a replacement candidate, and enter the election without a sitting member in the division. Among those who missed out at preselection was Hobart alderman and regular independent candidate Marti Zucco.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,146 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5”

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  1. [Hockey vs Abbott: Hmmmmmmmm!]
    This is the leadership contest that I felt would happen AFTER Turnbull loses the next election.

    As Mumble says, there is no point for Hockey to take the leadership from Turnbull, because he isn’t a climate change denier. Hockey would just look like a phony constantly having to defend climate change denial that he doesn’t believe in.

  2. If Turnball left parliament, that means a byelection in Wentworth! Methinks a Liberal replacement running on a platform of “Climate change isn’t a manmade thing” wouldn’t do so well.

  3. Al Jazeera have a story on the Indonesian to Australian smuggling trade. The last paragraph doesn’t look good for the AS.

    [ARABIC news network Al Jazeera has broadcast a report claiming to expose the methods used by people smugglers operating between Indonesia and Australia.

    Journalist Step Vaessen interviews two men in the report, Asylum seekers Riot in Australia, who say they are part of a smuggling syndicate involving people from Afghanistan and Indonesia.

    Their faces disguised with hats and scarves, the men detail their illegal and dangerous journeys transporting asylum seekers on small fishing boats to Australia.

    “I have no fear,” one man, a boat captain, tells the reporter.

    “I heard that when we are arrested in Australia, we are put in a fancy prison with good facilities, and are being brought back home in a plane to Jakarta, and then back here (to West Timor).”

    The captain says he has tried four times to take asylum seekers to Australia, but every time he was arrested by Indonesian police who he later bribed to get out of prison, according to the report.

    He says he receives around $10,000 per trip.

    The strategy of the smugglers is to pretend to be in danger so Australian rescue boats will pick them up and take them to the immigration detention centre, Vaessen says.]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26392076-5005962,00.html

  5. I think Minchin and co have shown we underestimate the degree of angst among the Liberal right and that they are on the verge of self destruction.

    It seems it would only take a bit of taunting by Rudd to make them jump. Maybe before their meetings tomorrow.

  7. [I think Minchin and co have shown we underestimate the degree of angst among the Liberal right and that they are on the verge of self destruction.]
    As hard as it may be for us to believe or understand,I have little doubt that Minchin and the other deniers actually believe what they say. They actually think the Earth is cooling, they actually think that climate science is just a left wing conspiracy to institute world government. They don’t understand how science works, they think it is just another ideological force opposed to their agenda.
    [If Turnball left parliament, that means a byelection in Wentworth! Methinks a Liberal replacement running on a platform of “Climate change isn’t a manmade thing” wouldn’t do so well.]
    An independent running on a pro emissions cutting policy would probably win it from the Liberals.

  8. TP,

    They are a rump. Think of Collingwood supporters when they lose. Lots of whingeing and absolutely no self analysis or comprehension where the real problem lays.

  11. Minchin and his lot are getting plenty of encouragement from the right wing elements of the media. Listen to talkback radio, it’s all “Climate change isn’t real” at the moment, and the likes of Ian Plimer are feted as heroes! The shock jocks on 2GB are encouraging listeners to lobby non-Labor senators to vote against the ETS.

  12. Shows On,

    More evidence of a slide in your opinion that the Libs will vote down the CPRS?

    You have been all over the shop of late.

  13. And, there’s no way Turnball or McFarlane could serve in the shadow ministry of Tony Abbott, nor Hockey either! Perhaps Tuckey and Brony Bishop would be resurrected as shadow ministers? 😉
    Despite the protestations of David Speers, Rudd will be a winner, whatever the outcome of the vote in the Coalition partyroom.

  15. [Shows On,

    More evidence of a slide in your opinion that the Libs will vote down the CPRS?]
    LOL! I’ve been saying since the start of the year that most (but not all) of the Liberals will ultimately vote for it.

    The Government is making a lot more concessions than I think necessary though.

  17. Good lord that New Idea / Vex News article is scary. She seriously sounds unhinged. I’m not surprised her husband has reacted the way he did given their likely marital mental state.

  18. [And, there’s no way Turnball or McFarlane could serve in the shadow ministry of Tony Abbott, nor Hockey either!]
    McFarlane could. Greg Hunt couldn’t.

    If Turnbull can’t be opposition leader he will quit parliament.

  20. [If Turnbull can’t be opposition leader he will quit parliament]

    Absolutely. He certainly doesn’t need to stick around for the pension.

  21. I’m most disappointed with the Greens!
    Heck, any ETS is better than none at all!
    We’ll have the unedifying spectacle of Bob Brown voting with Minchin and the sceptic senators?

  22. [Absolutely. He certainly doesn’t need to stick around for the pension.]

    HA HA
    Malcolm would be so relieved he no longer had to pretend that he’s frightened of boat people! 😉

  24. [I’m most disappointed with the Greens!
    Heck, any ETS is better than none at all!]
    Especially when you consider that it will more than likely be heavily amended between when it passes and when it starts.

    Let’s say the final Copenhagen Treaty is set late next year, then there will need to be more legislation to ratify that treaty, and that will involve altering the targets and caps.

  25. [I’m most disappointed with the Greens!
    Heck, any ETS is better than none at all!
    We’ll have the unedifying spectacle of Bob Brown voting with Minchin and the sceptic senators?]

    And failing to get up in Willagee 🙂 – thanks to some nice Greens infighting amngst other factors.

    (sorry, could’nt resist.)

  26. Greens, X and fielding siding with the Libs again
    [The Senate has again voted to reinstate generous cataract surgery rebates for elderly Australians, overturning the federal government’s cuts to them]
    Interesting, a stunt to delay the ETS?
    [But manager of government business in the Senate Joe Ludwig said the “arrogant and incompetent” changes were aimed at delaying debate on Labor’s emissions trading scheme.

    “Senator Cormann knows it’s a political stunt.

    He understands the ramifications of what he does,” Senator Ludwig said.

    “You wonder whether or not he’s a stalking horse for the opposition who don’t want to deal with the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.”]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/senate-overturns-cataract-rebate-cuts-20091124-j284.html

  27. vera,

    You must remember that the Greens and the Independants are keen on a DD as they perceive this makes it easier for them to be returned.

    All their rhetoric is about achieving this outcome.

  33. [Do you have some kind of issue with funding cataract surgery for elderly Australians?]
    No but I do with doctors being grossly overpaid for a 15minute proceedure

  34. S’pose I should say something. Given that I an SAian.

    With total prejudice, I believe neither the lady or the tramp.

    Both are suspect.

    Need I go on?

  35. [By which time any credibility the Greens had will be gone baby gone!]

    Who said they had any to start with ? 🙂

    Exhibit A Hsien Harper vs Gerry Georgatos 🙂

  38. [No but I do with doctors being grossly overpaid for a 15minute proceedure]

    Especially a procedure which desn’t require the use of a scalpel and is done via laser beam.

  39. Andrews not only introduced Work Choices but he also oversaw the Haneef debacle.

    What part of hit me with your Labor rythym sticks does not apply?

  40. The Senate is always more interesting than the HofR because in the HofR standing orders allow QT answers to drone on forever, because the senate has more parties and more interesting charactors (Tuckey in the HofR aside), because ministers are more likely to give a straight answer to the cross-benchers in QT (due to ministers less intent on winning political points from them and because cross benchers ask different kinds of questions) and because the government doesn’t win every vote so there is some suspence during a division.

  41. I’m going to go to bed thinking positive
    The ETS will pass
    Turnbull will still be leader (until the next election)
    The Liberal party will be split asunder
    nighty nite

  45. With all this talk about Kevin Andrews, I’d like to ask again a simple question. Which Liberal leader is mostly likely to be electoral suicide (for the Liberals)? And why? Reference to the voting public and actual argument appreciated.

    And before you say it again, yes this country does need an intelligent, constructive opposition, but I fear that before the Liberal Party can become one, it has to lose its dinosaurs. And a rip snorting, in-no-uncertain-terms electoral annihilation may be just the medicine. Yes, I’m aware that sadly, the dinosaurs tend to occupy the safer seats, but I think they need a real kick up the ass before they realise just how out of touch they have been and start repopulating the party with moderates.

    I said before the last election, that the next Liberal PM hasn’t joined the party yet. I’m still sticking to that opinion.

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